It is speculative. The speculation is derisked by all the things you have listed above but its speculative non the less. Will be until we see some commercial traction front and centre rather than behind closed doors. I believe (or speculate) this will happen.
Hi SiD,
I usually try to avoid semantic discussions, but I think this is an important discussion to have.
The term you used was "highly speculative". You've now tactically withdrawn to the more defensible "speculative" position.
Certainly dot-joining is speculation, but we have substantial links as well.
The technology is proven, so it is not speculative, so I guess the speculation is about whether there is a market which BRN can exploit profitably.
We have take-off orders from Renesas, MegaChips and VVDN. All that is speculative here is the tons of production and price per kg of Akida.
We know that Akida 1 blew the socks of a number of EAPs (Mercedes, Prophesee, nViso, ...), and that we have a sweet spot for lidar (Valeo). Whether or not they bite is, to different degrees, speculative, but is there anything better on the horizon?
We know that some EAPs have postponed final assessment, not because Akida 1 was a dud, but because Akida 2 with TeNNs and ViT is remarkably better. If Akida 1 had not passed muster or been shown to be hot air, would they have wasted their time assessing Akida 2? (Rhetorical rather than speculation).
We also know that for some potential applications some customers have found that existing solutions are "good enuf" for present purposes. In time, some of them may come to recognize what additional benefits Akida opens up for them (Small "s" speculation).
As to financial attractiveness, we have seen the Nvidia/Akida price/performance comparison. Nvidia may win a few on brand recognition, but ...
... and let's not forget that the lead time can be up to 4 years before a product hits the market .
I do not classify BRN as speculative, much less highly speculative, so I guess my speculatometer has a higher threshold than yours.
I'm sure we can agree to disagree at the $2 party early next year.