Fastback6666
Regular
I am a glass half full character and appreciated the honesty today from management as it allows everyone to be able to make more informed decisions around their investment now.
Now for a little glass half empty…
The hard thing for me now is …I am really not sure how long I need to be invested in Brainchip to achieve a personal wealth goal. It was always going to be a guess but by the sounds of things 12 months ago I did think my goal may occur by around 2024/2025 based on royalty ramp up from Akida 1.0. Now I really do have no idea when things will ramp up to that level as Akida 1.0 is now not going to be mass adopted in commercial products in the very near future. Mass - I mean millions of instances. I usually know that the first cut of a product (Akida 1.0) was not going to be the magic pill….however the management sort of made us feel like it was going to be the magic pill and everyone wanted it and decent revenue was coming.
I know management have a 5 year plan but it is unquantifiable in regards to knowing when and how much revenue will flow and from which product. This continues to be a problem.
After the 5 year plan executes (4 years from now) are we then at a stage where that is just the start of the real mass commercial products containing Akida 2.0 and our real mass royalties flow? That is 2027 - larger revenue then starting to build into 2028/29. Ooof that is quite a commitment and where does the SP swing to in the interim .20c to .50c range until then? Ooof.
We don’t know who is developing what, when it will be ready and what royalty it pays. There is some taping out being done by some partners for sure but we don’t know that scale or detail of that and also it’s Akida 1.0 the company is saying it’s a narrow market…ie. Smaller revenue.
I have never been interested in singular IP licenses sales for BRN as that is small fry to me in the grand scheme of things and that will not be the bulk revenue needed for this company nor sustain the share price over 20 cents realistically. Mass Royalties is where we need to be at to move the SP, or the ability to quantify it.
I do have a pretty decent annoyance that when the price was over $1+ 12 months ago, the company had made comments that the sales inquiries were basically insatiable and the CEO in turn indicated revenue would be starting to move up late last year. He had also made a comment last year such as - He saw the current market cap (when around 2 to 3 Billion) to be low and saw the company being worth much much more than that with the recent interest. That is not word for word but that is pretty close to the thought of the comment. At that point I was thinking wow and was happy to not sell any shares at $1+ on the hyped up Mercedes news even though I could see BRN was overvalued at $1.30+ due to no revenue at that point …but why would I sell if revenue was that close and CEO indicating market cap was very low compared to where it should be as he as the CEO can see what was happening internally. That right there was very misleading and had hoped that the management would not make insinuations like that when they were not really not reality. Lesson learned on both sides of the fence there I would say.
Ok glass half empty done…looking back at the glass half full again and still holding for now…even though todays reality check was quite painful.
Now for a little glass half empty…
The hard thing for me now is …I am really not sure how long I need to be invested in Brainchip to achieve a personal wealth goal. It was always going to be a guess but by the sounds of things 12 months ago I did think my goal may occur by around 2024/2025 based on royalty ramp up from Akida 1.0. Now I really do have no idea when things will ramp up to that level as Akida 1.0 is now not going to be mass adopted in commercial products in the very near future. Mass - I mean millions of instances. I usually know that the first cut of a product (Akida 1.0) was not going to be the magic pill….however the management sort of made us feel like it was going to be the magic pill and everyone wanted it and decent revenue was coming.
I know management have a 5 year plan but it is unquantifiable in regards to knowing when and how much revenue will flow and from which product. This continues to be a problem.
After the 5 year plan executes (4 years from now) are we then at a stage where that is just the start of the real mass commercial products containing Akida 2.0 and our real mass royalties flow? That is 2027 - larger revenue then starting to build into 2028/29. Ooof that is quite a commitment and where does the SP swing to in the interim .20c to .50c range until then? Ooof.
We don’t know who is developing what, when it will be ready and what royalty it pays. There is some taping out being done by some partners for sure but we don’t know that scale or detail of that and also it’s Akida 1.0 the company is saying it’s a narrow market…ie. Smaller revenue.
I have never been interested in singular IP licenses sales for BRN as that is small fry to me in the grand scheme of things and that will not be the bulk revenue needed for this company nor sustain the share price over 20 cents realistically. Mass Royalties is where we need to be at to move the SP, or the ability to quantify it.
I do have a pretty decent annoyance that when the price was over $1+ 12 months ago, the company had made comments that the sales inquiries were basically insatiable and the CEO in turn indicated revenue would be starting to move up late last year. He had also made a comment last year such as - He saw the current market cap (when around 2 to 3 Billion) to be low and saw the company being worth much much more than that with the recent interest. That is not word for word but that is pretty close to the thought of the comment. At that point I was thinking wow and was happy to not sell any shares at $1+ on the hyped up Mercedes news even though I could see BRN was overvalued at $1.30+ due to no revenue at that point …but why would I sell if revenue was that close and CEO indicating market cap was very low compared to where it should be as he as the CEO can see what was happening internally. That right there was very misleading and had hoped that the management would not make insinuations like that when they were not really not reality. Lesson learned on both sides of the fence there I would say.
Ok glass half empty done…looking back at the glass half full again and still holding for now…even though todays reality check was quite painful.
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