BRN Discussion Ongoing

[Fact Finder]

I think that many people, myself included, have been guilty of underestimating the difficulty in establishing a market for such a revolutionary product.

This is not another better memory.

This is not just another better processor.

This is a totally new and revolutionary processor working on a principle unheard of outside the ivory towers of academe until a few years ago and working on a totally foreign fuzzy logic which is anathema to the incumbent von Neumann processor. It is so foreign that the experts argue as to how to measure its performance, albeit its performance far surpasses that of any previous processor as to speed and power efficiency, while losing nothing in accuracy. Akida makes child's play of the processing load which required a von Neumann processor to have a cooling system like a V8 Chevvy in traffic - without raising a sweat.

Clearly there are products for which Akida is a natural fit, DVS and LiDaR being foremost, with KWS close behind but not alone.

We were late to the Prophesee party, Prophesee itself being a wunderkind. We missed the first wave of Prophesee/Sony. Prophesee have a prior engagement with Synsense, but we have a spot on their dance card.

Automotive products have a mandatory years-long proving period. We've served our apprenticeship with Valeo - will we reap the reward with the new Mercedes due out later this year?

Mercedes also trumpeted our KWS ability, and plans to "standardize" its chip inventory. Dare we hope?

And now, within the last couple of weeks, BrainChip have announced Akida 1500 in GF's 22 nm layout, sans ARM Cortex, a format which meets a recent NASA SBIR, not to mention the satellite repair robot.

And, if you're underwhelmed by that, perhaps you were whelmed by Akida Gen 2? It can skip and transform while paying attention to the time.

If you're not big on deferred gratification, BrainChip may not be a good fit.

They say that the darkest hour is just before dawn, or, in sharemarketese, the price is always lowest just before it goes up.

Thanks @Diogenese I have just added ANT61 to my list.
Regards
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

 

[Fact Finder]

New AI camera can detect if a driver is drunk behind the wheel

A Melbourne company responsible for mobile phone detection cameras is developing new cameras to identify alcohol- and drug-affected drivers.

www.carexpert.com.au

IS THIS POSSIBLE

I think so Melbourne has always been very conservative.

 

[HopalongPetrovski]

I think so Melbourne has always been very conservative.

Hey there Mister. We like to think of ourselves as chic.

 

[stan9614]

Typically, companies create value for their shareholders by generating profits, increasing revenue, and growing their market share. Shareholders can also benefit from dividends or share buybacks, which can increase the value of their shares.

BRN is currently similar to a pre-production miner. The product TAM/resource JORC has been confirmed as significant & the production plant is being constructed. The miners have offtake agreements similar to BRN having licensee's/partners prior to production revenue.

Numerous pre-revenue lithium miners currently heavily shorted similar to BRN. They are good quality companies as is BRN. It's just the nature of the cycle & the shorters taking advantage. I can understand shorting the lithium miners now due to the lithium price more than halving & they are still many months away from production revenue but BRN doesn't make sense.

Semiconductor companies such as Intel, AMD, Nvidia & Qualcomm are above or near 200sma on daily charts. The semiconductor ETF SMH has golden crossed & is above 200sma. Anything AI related is very hot at the moment except BRN. WBT was hot for a while until the shorters took notice & shorts have increased from nil to 2.67% in less than a month resulting in SP decline of 36.7%.

So revenue is what is currently required by BRN for SP to increase. And some assistance from rate cuts to increase DCF valuation.

BRN revenue should commence soon with more licence agreements & royalties. If the Renesas M85 chip has Akida IP revenue should commence next quarter. Renesas's MCU market competitors such as NXP & STM will be next as they will not want Renesas to dominate the AI MCU market alone. They are all using ARM IP for their chips & Akida integration has been validated.

With regard to US interest rates, the US Feds will need to get above CPI rate. CPI should decline to around 5% by May & US Fed rate will be at 5.25% with one more rate hike. Should inflation continue to decline to say 4.5% in July then the US Feds could commence rate cuts as they will be highly restrictive with monetary policy at 5.25%.

Could cut 0.5% to 4.75% & still be restrictive above the CPI rate of 4.5%. US CPI would have declined 50% YOY from 9.1% in June 2022 to 4.5% in July 2023. Another 50% decline YOY would bring it down to 2.25% by July 2024 allowing the US Feds to reduce interest rates to 2.25% being neutral or lower if they want to stimulate the economy. That would imply 3% of rate cuts from July 2023 to July 2024.

High interest rates reduce DCF valuations & low interest rates increase them.

Tricky market at the moment. Big sell off last hour yesterday in US resulting in red day. Has been mentioned to me whichever way the market goes the night of FMOC it will break out in opposite direction. Finished red so hopefully we see some green now. US Futures green for the time being.

RSI is currently very low on BRN daily chart similar to November & mid-February sell offs. RSI has also bottomed on weekly chart similar to April 2019. Has to bounce soon. SP might do the same as 2019 when it doubled from 4.2c in April to 10c intraday by May when US Feds paused. Got rejected by 200sma on daily chart in 2019 at first attempt. Daily chart has declining 200sma at 78.5c so it appears shorts will cover around 40c range & SP will bounce to 80c range. Double bottomed after the 2019 run up so could head back to 40c again before breaking out above 200sma & holding above. Maybe we will get a decent announcement such as a license agreement soon causing SP to run up fast then back down to await US Fed pivot prior to getting above 200sma again.

Have to look ahead in moments like this at 2028 when BRN will have revenue growth, market share & NPAT with SP to suit.

hi steve,
Every point you laid out in this post echoes completely with what i have in my mind. What a great quality of analysis!

New ip sales will be the key to drive us out of this dark tunnel. And whoever has properly followed the progress brn has made, knows that we getting very close to the new contracts. The 2nd gen akida is final tigger for the moment of truth since it was created based on feedback and requirement from many partners and customers.

We have created what they wanted. Theorically there should be no reason why they wouldnt want to purchase the ip. Therefore i believe we are just waiting for those customers to run some final tests and evaluations.

So, i am not just going to sit tight, i am going top up further, gradually. Especially when it is oversold in both daily and weekly charts. And if we look at the monthly chart, it is clear that we are around the end of wave four. The fifth wave up very likely start once a number of new ip sales start to kick in.

 

[Steve10]

 

[GazDix]

Typically, companies create value for their shareholders by generating profits, increasing revenue, and growing their market share. Shareholders can also benefit from dividends or share buybacks, which can increase the value of their shares.

BRN is currently similar to a pre-production miner. The product TAM/resource JORC has been confirmed as significant & the production plant is being constructed. The miners have offtake agreements similar to BRN having licensee's/partners prior to production revenue.

Numerous pre-revenue lithium miners currently heavily shorted similar to BRN. They are good quality companies as is BRN. It's just the nature of the cycle & the shorters taking advantage. I can understand shorting the lithium miners now due to the lithium price more than halving & they are still many months away from production revenue but BRN doesn't make sense.

Semiconductor companies such as Intel, AMD, Nvidia & Qualcomm are above or near 200sma on daily charts. The semiconductor ETF SMH has golden crossed & is above 200sma. Anything AI related is very hot at the moment except BRN. WBT was hot for a while until the shorters took notice & shorts have increased from nil to 2.67% in less than a month resulting in SP decline of 36.7%.

So revenue is what is currently required by BRN for SP to increase. And some assistance from rate cuts to increase DCF valuation.

BRN revenue should commence soon with more licence agreements & royalties. If the Renesas M85 chip has Akida IP revenue should commence next quarter. Renesas's MCU market competitors such as NXP & STM will be next as they will not want Renesas to dominate the AI MCU market alone. They are all using ARM IP for their chips & Akida integration has been validated.

With regard to US interest rates, the US Feds will need to get above CPI rate. CPI should decline to around 5% by May & US Fed rate will be at 5.25% with one more rate hike. Should inflation continue to decline to say 4.5% in July then the US Feds could commence rate cuts as they will be highly restrictive with monetary policy at 5.25%.

Could cut 0.5% to 4.75% & still be restrictive above the CPI rate of 4.5%. US CPI would have declined 50% YOY from 9.1% in June 2022 to 4.5% in July 2023. Another 50% decline YOY would bring it down to 2.25% by July 2024 allowing the US Feds to reduce interest rates to 2.25% being neutral or lower if they want to stimulate the economy. That would imply 3% of rate cuts from July 2023 to July 2024.

High interest rates reduce DCF valuations & low interest rates increase them.

Tricky market at the moment. Big sell off last hour yesterday in US resulting in red day. Has been mentioned to me whichever way the market goes the night of FMOC it will break out in opposite direction. Finished red so hopefully we see some green now. US Futures green for the time being.

RSI is currently very low on BRN daily chart similar to November & mid-February sell offs. RSI has also bottomed on weekly chart similar to April 2019. Has to bounce soon. SP might do the same as 2019 when it doubled from 4.2c in April to 10c intraday by May when US Feds paused. Got rejected by 200sma on daily chart in 2019 at first attempt. Daily chart has declining 200sma at 78.5c so it appears shorts will cover around 40c range & SP will bounce to 80c range. Double bottomed after the 2019 run up so could head back to 40c again before breaking out above 200sma & holding above. Maybe we will get a decent announcement such as a license agreement soon causing SP to run up fast then back down to await US Fed pivot prior to getting above 200sma again.

Have to look ahead in moments like this at 2028 when BRN will have revenue growth, market share & NPAT with SP to suit.

Fantastic post Steve 10. Summaries my thoughts just about exactly as well.

I wondered as well why BRN is getting hammered more so than others in the Semiconductor industry as well.

Just to add, I am not sure about when the FED will pivot. The 'bailouts' or for the Democrats 'not bailouts'! , two weeks ago pumped another $300 billion in the economy again. What does this do? There should be a lag effect, but could wobble inflation again. Let's see.

I also think (as proven by another poster) that retail are selling as well because cost of living is up as well across the board. Basically creating a shorter's paradise on many good assets like BRN. I know I have had to sell some shares now and then as well for the unexpected expense that came up.

Still tough times to go, but investing can be made simple. Like you said RSI is really low. We know an option when that happens and that is to buy if you have the dry powder.

 

[Pappagallo]

1. Renesas
2. MegaChips
3. Mercedes Benz
4. Intellisense
5. Socionext
6. Intel
7. ARM
8. SiFive
9. Edge Impulse
10. Prophesee
11. NVISO
12. VALEO
13. NASA
14. Intelligence Systems Laboratories - ISL
15. US Air Force Research Laboratories
16. Ai LABS
17. EMOTION 3D
18. GlobalFoundries
19. ANT61

20. Carnegie Mellon University
22. Arizona State University
23. Rochester Institute of Technology

If you have done your own research these are twenty three very good reasons to have a positive outlook.

Then one can start to look at the scientific and engineering achievements:

1. Renesas taping out an AKIDA based MCU;
2. NVISO producing astonishing benchmarks for its apps running on AKIDA 1000;
3. ARM & Brainchip announcing M85 compatibility.
4. Prophesee announcing that AKIDA was what it was missing;
5. Mercedes Benz revealing AKIDA 1000 was five to ten times more efficient than competitor products;
6. MegaChips advising that it worked on the backend of AKD1500;
7. Brainchip and GlobalFoundries announcing AKIDA 1500 can be fabricated in its 22nm and reference chips available 2/2023;
8. Brainchip announces with public industry accolades the release to early adopters the AKIDA 2nd Generation;
9. ISL announcing the radar AKIDA design win;
10. Intellisense announcing their design solution utilising AKIDA for radio communications;
11. MegaChips producing unaccounted for IP licensing fees.
12. ANT61 sending AKIDA to space in 2024 & 2025 braining its autonomous mobile space ship repair robot - (thanks @Diogenese too much happening for me to remember)
13. SiFive announcing compatibility of AKIDA 1000 with X280 Intelligence Series - (I remembered this one by myself)

On top of which extraordinarily talented individuals have been joining Brainchip across all areas of the company from the Board Room to engineering to sales to marketing to research across Australia, the USA, Japan, Korea, Germany and India.

I suspect there is more you might want to add but all this has been achieved during the current CEO’s tenure.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

I wonder how things are going with Ford. It’s been pretty quiet on this front since they were revealed by the ASX prodding almost 3 years ago. I feel like they’ve been overshadowed by Mercedes a bit but hopefully they’re making progress too behind the scenes.

 

[Fact Finder]

I wonder how things are going with Ford. It’s been pretty quiet on this front since they were revealed by the ASX prodding almost 3 years ago. I feel like they’ve been overshadowed by Mercedes a bit but hopefully they’re making progress too behind the scenes.

Thanks @Pappagalla
I have added the stealth FORD autonomous EV which the world won’t see coming.

 

[Tothemoon24]

1. Renesas
2. MegaChips
3. Mercedes Benz
4. Intellisense
5. Socionext
6. Intel
7. ARM
8. SiFive
9. Edge Impulse
10. Prophesee
11. NVISO
12. VALEO
13. NASA
14. Intelligence Systems Laboratories - ISL
15. US Air Force Research Laboratories
16. Ai LABS
17. EMOTION 3D
18. GlobalFoundries
19. ANT61
20. FORD - developing first of its kind stealth autonomous Electric Vehicle

21.Carnegie Mellon University
22. Arizona State University
23. Rochester Institute of Technology

If you have done your own research these are twenty three very good reasons to have a positive outlook.

Then one can start to look at the scientific and engineering achievements:

1. Renesas taping out an AKIDA based MCU;
2. NVISO producing astonishing benchmarks for its apps running on AKIDA 1000;
3. ARM & Brainchip announcing M85 compatibility.
4. Prophesee announcing that AKIDA was what it was missing;
5. Mercedes Benz revealing AKIDA 1000 was five to ten times more efficient than competitor products;
6. MegaChips advising that it worked on the backend of AKD1500;
7. Brainchip and GlobalFoundries announcing AKIDA 1500 can be fabricated in its 22nm and reference chips available 2/2023;
8. Brainchip announces with public industry accolades the release to early adopters the AKIDA 2nd Generation;
9. ISL announcing the radar AKIDA design win;
10. Intellisense announcing their design solution utilising AKIDA for radio communications;
11. MegaChips producing unaccounted for IP licensing fees.
12. ANT61 sending AKIDA to space in 2024 & 2025 braining its autonomous mobile space ship repair robot - (thanks @Diogenese too much happening for me to remember)
13. SiFive announcing compatibility of AKIDA 1000 with X280 Intelligence Series - (I remembered this one by myself)

On top of which extraordinarily talented individuals have been joining Brainchip across all areas of the company from the Board Room to engineering to sales to marketing to research across Australia, the USA, Japan, Korea, Germany and India.

I suspect there is more you might want to add but all this has been achieved during the current CEO’s tenure.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

Tata-TCS

It’s a very impressive list , even if half produce revenue for the company we will be in the ASX-50 .

 

[Baisyet]

I stopped saying over and over have a plan because I thought I was sounding pompous.

Therefore I am calling it a refresher as opposed to a reminder.

In the share market having a plan is about knowing what you will do in times of emotional stress or overload when your ability to think calmly and make a decision that is best for your personal circumstances are not optimal.

The share price going up or down unexpectedly can create this stress and emotional overload.

If you are feeling overloaded at the moment by the share price, do not know what to do and are not comforted by the company and associated companies providing positive confirmation of the technology and market opportunities that are open to Brainchip you really need to take a step back and reassess your plan so as to take account of how a falling share price is to be dealt with now and in the future.

Having a share price that always goes up is not a right and profits made by retail shareholders are hard won.

Lots and lots of retail investors loose money in the markets buying too high or selling too early.

All you ever have going for you is your own research and your plan.

It is never too late to do both and take control of your personal situation.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

I dont remember who said it but well known investor said if you believe in the company you invest in dont look at your portfolio in daily basis, check once a month. Or now and then set aside how long you are going to hold, the strategy that you have rest will follow... cheers

 

[DK6161]

I can sense that the general sentiment here has shifted from "This is our year!" to "It is gonna take a while guys..".

 

[Fact Finder]

Tata-TCS

It’s a very impressive list , even if half produce revenue for the company we will be in the ASX-50 .

On Tata -TCS beyond the joint demonstration on 14.12.19 we have not had any confirmatory statement so leaving TCS off was a hard but deliberate decision even though I have a personal 100% conviction that they are one of the EAP’s.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

 

[Tothemoon24]

Exciting times ahead!

Mercedes are building their campaign & I have a feeling BRN is going to be the guest of honour

#mercedesbenz published their current software strategy – and #MBOS has been a major part of it.

They did not only demonstrate how the Mercedes-Benz Operating System MB.OS will create new digital experiences for customers but also how it makes us more efficient as a company. Here are some exciting aspects that were discussed:

MB.OS will revolutionize the digital experience in the car

MB.OS offers the possibility to link the vehicle functions (e.g. infotainment, automated driving) with each other and with the outside world

Collaboration with selected top class technology partners (e.g. Google)

Possible access to the YouTube App thanks to the Antstream platform for arcade games

Integration of popular services like Webex and Zoom

Customers are able to book exclusive additional services for their MB.OS

There is a foretaste of MB.OS in the new E-Class, which will soon celebrate its world premiere and will have the third generation of MBUX on board.

We are very happy to be a part of the MB.OS journey as a business partner of Mercedes-Benz.

 

[Tothemoon24]

Exciting times ahead!

Mercedes are building their campaign & I have a feeling BRN is going to be the guest of honour

#mercedesbenz published their current software strategy – and #MBOS has been a major part of it.

They did not only demonstrate how the Mercedes-Benz Operating System MB.OS will create new digital experiences for customers but also how it makes us more efficient as a company. Here are some exciting aspects that were discussed:

MB.OS will revolutionize the digital experience in the car

MB.OS offers the possibility to link the vehicle functions (e.g. infotainment, automated driving) with each other and with the outside world

Collaboration with selected top class technology partners (e.g. Google)

Possible access to the YouTube App thanks to the Antstream platform for arcade games

Integration of popular services like Webex and Zoom

Customers are able to book exclusive additional services for their MB.OS

There is a foretaste of MB.OS in the new E-Class, which will soon celebrate its world premiere and will have the third generation of MBUX on board.

We are very happy to be a part of the MB.OS journey as a business partner of Mercedes-Benz.

This is taken from a Mercedes Benz platform.

The new E-Class will have the third generation of MBUX on board

 

[Labsy]

Thank you for the considered response Fact Finder. Much appreciated.

Renesas Electronics on LinkedIn: CM85 Demo - Embedded World 2023

Step into the future of artificial intelligence and machine learning with our first live demo of AI and ML implementations using the Arm Cortex-M85 processor…

www.linkedin.com

View attachment 32829

A massive conpany like Renesas saying the "future of AI and machine learning"...
How sure are we that our IP is in the ARM M85? 99.99%??
41cents is such a bargain for this beaut of a company...geezus...the mind boggles...

 

[DingoBorat]

Thanks for your input. I’m not worried about revenue. I’m trying to understand the value proposition from the customers point of view. If they just license the IP are they going to be able to achieve the same performance metrics that we have shown in our demos? Such as power consumption and accuracy in the object detection Or taste classification

Somebody's probably already answered your question, but basically yes.

It depends on how they implement the IP though.

If they use a smaller chip architecture, it will be quicker etc.

They do have to know how to "cook" the recipe and what other ingredients may be needed.

But any organisation, buying the recipe, will have that knowledge, or have access to it.

That's just what I think, anyway..

 

[Tothemoon24]

On Tata -TCS beyond the joint demonstration on 14.12.19 we have not had any confirmatory statement so leaving TCS off was a hard but deliberate decision even though I have a personal 100% conviction that they are one of the EAP’s.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

Totally understandable FF it’s hard to argue with logic , well so I’ve read

 

[Jchandel]

1. Renesas
2. MegaChips
3. Mercedes Benz
4. Intellisense
5. Socionext
6. Intel
7. ARM
8. SiFive
9. Edge Impulse
10. Prophesee
11. NVISO
12. VALEO
13. NASA
14. Intelligence Systems Laboratories - ISL
15. US Air Force Research Laboratories
16. Ai LABS
17. EMOTION 3D
18. GlobalFoundries
19. ANT61
20. FORD - developing first of its kind stealth autonomous Electric Vehicle

21.Carnegie Mellon University
22. Arizona State University
23. Rochester Institute of Technology

If you have done your own research these are twenty three very good reasons to have a positive outlook.

Then one can start to look at the scientific and engineering achievements:

1. Renesas taping out an AKIDA based MCU;
2. NVISO producing astonishing benchmarks for its apps running on AKIDA 1000;
3. ARM & Brainchip announcing M85 compatibility.
4. Prophesee announcing that AKIDA was what it was missing;
5. Mercedes Benz revealing AKIDA 1000 was five to ten times more efficient than competitor products;
6. MegaChips advising that it worked on the backend of AKD1500;
7. Brainchip and GlobalFoundries announcing AKIDA 1500 can be fabricated in its 22nm and reference chips available 2/2023;
8. Brainchip announces with public industry accolades the release to early adopters the AKIDA 2nd Generation;
9. ISL announcing the radar AKIDA design win;
10. Intellisense announcing their design solution utilising AKIDA for radio communications;
11. MegaChips producing unaccounted for IP licensing fees.
12. ANT61 sending AKIDA to space in 2024 & 2025 braining its autonomous mobile space ship repair robot - (thanks @Diogenese too much happening for me to remember)
13. SiFive announcing compatibility of AKIDA 1000 with X280 Intelligence Series - (I remembered this one by myself)

On top of which extraordinarily talented individuals have been joining Brainchip across all areas of the company from the Board Room to engineering to sales to marketing to research across Australia, the USA, Japan, Korea, Germany and India.

I suspect there is more you might want to add but all this has been achieved during the current CEO’s tenure.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

Awesome post FF! Please add Teksun to the list

 

[Fact Finder]

Awesome post FF! Please add Teksun to the list

Thanks @Jchandel I have no idea how I missed Teksun because I checked the list. Could not believe I left it out given they didn’t reveal Cisco and Toshiba.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA