Me too Cameron. I was in around this time last year, my DCA price is 86c.
Absolutely - it hurts looking at it and you question your decision; it's easy to say "buy the dip", "hold on" etc. but I'm in for the long term on this because of the numbers I see right now, the people that are involved in it and the potential for it.
The fact is that based on the numbers and performance, it will turn and that's the thing, no one knows when (because on each side of the ledger, we both think we're right as those who go long and those who short), we can only guess and prepare ourselves as best as we can.
But it will not be a lazy unwinding of positions. The market is very unforgiving of those who bite off more than they can chew and it leads you into a false sense of security. Sometimes it just takes a bit of time. Right now, everyone is smashed because of the US jitters around interest rates and inflation.
Remember, the four most dangerous words in investing are "this time it's different". Also remember that back in July 2007, the then Citi CEO Charles “Chuck” Prince’s made the infamous comment to the Financial Times that global liquidity was enormous and only a significant disruptive event could create difficulty in the leveraged buyout market. “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance” he said. “We’re still dancing.".
And dance they did, with others. Right off the edge of the cliff, no less than two months later, when that significantly disruptive event came along that they were 'too big to fail' from. Just like back then, some of us sat there and wondered "just how long this situation can keep going ?" and that "everyone was making what seemed like easy money" but even fewer saw just how near to the edge they were dancing. But it happened, and how we laughed at the big end of town getting burned by their greed. Because "enough" never is or will be "enough", they always have to push it some more and hope it doesn't bust.
His infamous comment was that it was a race to keep up with competitors who kept loosening lending standards and Citi couldn't afford to drop out. Doesn't that sound like a familiar situation ? Everyone else is making money, taking on risk, shorting this stock. How long can it go on like this ?
Answer: it can't. Not forever. Not if the company continues to perform, because remember, there's always someone bigger and nastier than you to take the other side of a trade and when they get to hear about BET, you might just find the gorillas fighting amongst themselves.
That significantly disruptive event could be anything, but it would have to be a 'good announcement', such as record numbers in the reports, another State selects BET, a key player chooses BET, anything.
Remember that no less than 2 weeks ago, this did 15.6% in a day when management extended their stake and revenues ticked up.
