AVZ Discussion 2022

cruiser51

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Someone needs to bitch slap Lenny FFS
If he shows up at the AGM I'll give him a vulgar folly with a smile on my face.

The Simpsons Beer GIF


However it is good to see team troll going in overdrive, it normally means their bum cheeks are hard pressed together due to excess anxiety.
 
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Sangster

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Some interesting news this morning. MinRes and POSCO Holdings to form lithium partnership. The below is from Chat GPT pro and is likely to contain errors. Also the general concept of comparing these projects is apples to oranges but an interesting experiment anyway.

I wanted to compare the projects on a tonnage basis.

The US$765 m POSCO payment is for 30% of a new JV that will hold MinRes’s existing 50% interests in both Wodgina and Mt Marion. MinRes states this values its 50% interest at ~A$3.9 b (≈ US$2.5 b at 0.65 FX), implying a 100% underlying value of ~US$5.1 b for Wodgina + Mt Marion together.

A) Per‑tonne of contained Li₂O

  • $/t Li₂O for Wodgina + Mt Marion = US$5.1 b / 3.42 Mt ≈ US$1,491/t Li₂O.
  • Apply to Manono’s 13.52 Mt Li₂O13.52 Mt × US$1,491/t ≈ US$20.2 b (≈ A$31.0 b at 0.65).
Those numbers are nice but you also need to factor in how much we can dig up and sell between periodically ceding a percentage of the project back to the DRC government. I forget the details here but I think it's something like 5% of the project each time our exploitation permit is renewed.

Carlos is pretty sharp and has previously posted the details. Most others including me missed it in napkin valuations, but it's almost certainly factored in to our damages claim and part of the reason our claim is lower than that.
 
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j.l

Regular
And in other good news, Felix is doing Felix things again...
1000013468.jpg
 
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Flight996

Regular
As a follow-up to J.l's post, the signing of the peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda has been rescheduled to 21 Nov 2025.

Washington explains this postponement as being due to US President Donald Trump's busy schedule, but all know it's due to the DRC's failure to bring the FDLR rebels to heel, and the reluctance of M23 rebels to leave their captured territory. Different day, but same shit.


Cheers
F
 
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JasonM

Regular
dumb fuckers!
 
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Skar

Regular
DRC's failure to bring the FDLR rebels to heel, and the reluctance of M23 rebels to leave their captured territory.

Washington have taken far too light a hand with this diplomacy. Wish they woulda come in brandishing the stick, just big d(& flop it on the table and bring the misbehaving leaders to heel. This is what you have agreed to, this is the deadline, military support for the opposition of either side that breaks their word with Washington.

Essentially what Trump did to the Taliban in his first term, show them a picture of their house, we want those minerals boys, we will help you develop as a nation and elevate your people from poverty but require good relations between you. The good ole fashion American export, freedom.

waka.gif
 
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Uglybob

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If he shows up at the AGM I'll give him a vulgar folly with a smile on my face.

The Simpsons Beer GIF


However it is good to see team troll going in overdrive, it normally means their bum cheeks are hard pressed together due to excess anxiety.

No, be nice and give him a good, firm hand shake.

 
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Ancient

Member
Those numbers are nice but you also need to factor in how much we can dig up and sell between periodically ceding a percentage of the project back to the DRC government. I forget the details here but I think it's something like 5% of the project each time our exploitation permit is renewed.

Carlos is pretty sharp and has previously posted the details. Most others including me missed it in napkin valuations, but it's almost certainly factored in to our damages claim and part of the reason our claim is lower than that.
Yea I mean the per tonnage valuation is arbitrary really. Its more of just a muck around exercise with interesting results.

The reality is the tonnage comparison is actually built in to an overall comparative transaction analysis which is then only a small part of the overall valuation tools that a M&A team would use. Amongst financial tools, strategic considerations (buyers perspective), risk discounts, and about 50 other things.

What its more indicative of, and why i find it interesting, is 1. Timing, m&a at turning point of market, companies that know there shit spending money 2. Market heating up, causing pay now or pay more later mentality 3. Every above average transaction that goes through continues to pull the 'normal' m&a valuations up.

So I see it as good for us. Not like its a 'this completely changes the game', more like an extra little thing in the back of their minds when negotiating. Certainly not bad.
 
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Strongman

Regular
Washington have taken far too light a hand with this diplomacy. Wish they woulda come in brandishing the stick, just big d(& flop it on the table and bring the misbehaving leaders to heel. This is what you have agreed to, this is the deadline, military support for the opposition of either side that breaks their word with Washington.

Essentially what Trump did to the Taliban in his first term, show them a picture of their house, we want those minerals boys, we will help you develop as a nation and elevate your people from poverty but require good relations between you. The good ole fashion American export, freedom.

View attachment 92978
Need to get this guy in there to sort some shit out. As he says corrupt and incompetent the lot of them

 
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j.l

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Washington have taken far too light a hand with this diplomacy. Wish they woulda come in brandishing the stick, just big d(& flop it on the table and bring the misbehaving leaders to heel. This is what you have agreed to, this is the deadline, military support for the opposition of either side that breaks their word with Washington.

Essentially what Trump did to the Taliban in his first term, show them a picture of their house, we want those minerals boys, we will help you develop as a nation and elevate your people from poverty but require good relations between you. The good ole fashion American export, freedom.

View attachment 92978
Agreed. I remember hearing an anecdote from the early discussions where Rwanda started playing silly buggers and got up to walk out. Boulos (I think ?) gave them the smackdown and they fell in line...
 
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Sangster

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Yea I mean the per tonnage valuation is arbitrary really. Its more of just a muck around exercise with interesting results.
It's certainly a lot of fun and always nice to quantity the value of our deposit. I just think it's important for readers to have realistic expectations. No one should be expecting anything over $10B from a western buyer or $12B from Zijin. Fuck Zijin.
 
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Sangster

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Agreed. I remember hearing an anecdote from the early discussions where Rwanda started playing silly buggers and got up to walk out. Boulos (I think ?) gave them the smackdown and they fell in line...
Yes it was Massad Boulos and the incident completely changed my view on his appointment by Trump. I'd previously written it off as nepostic but after that I became convinced he's the right person for the job. We need more of that and I sincerely hope the Trump administration deliver a solid boot in the arse for these incompetent kleptocrats.
 
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Skar

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Sangster

Regular
No, be nice and give him a good, firm hand shake.


My boss and our admin ladies went out for lunch today. I stayed back to finish some work and watched that Mallrats clip in a moment of distraction.

Meanwhile my boss ordered fish pie then got a call from a client wondering if he was attending a meeting he'd forgotten about. He had to rush off and didn't have time to wait for his lunch, so our admin ladies returned with it wrapped up to go.

One of them popped it in the fridge and remarked that now her hands smelt of fish pie. I recalled the Mallrats clip and immediately chuckled. She got embarrassed and told me to fuck off.

Not sure how to explain the situation without making it worse. True story.
 
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Dazmac66

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1000005113.png

This needs no words. Enjoy your Friday AVZers!
 
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Skar

Regular
View attachment 93002
This needs no words. Enjoy your Friday AVZers!

Look at C1X yesterday
Look at CXO over 1 month.
Look at EUR from 3rd october.
Look at WR1 this week
Look at ELV this week
Look at LTR this week (and keep an eye on the auction price spod back over $1000/t)

Once you have done all that look at whatever else has NOT yet had a rerate and let me know about it :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
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Sangster

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Patriot Battery Metals hasn't done anything yet. Anyone think it could?
ASX.PMT
 
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Remark

Top 20
Friday funnys anyone?

ASIC’s dating profile: “Looking for full disclosure, no hidden interests, and preferably someone with audited financials.”

Too soon?:unsure:
 
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Friday funny is reading through HC and taking Shitstick and Toilet off ignore and catching up on the last 36 hours... At least it is for a little while before it becomes infuriating again :ROFLMAO:
 
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Skar

Regular
Patriot Battery Metals hasn't done anything yet. Anyone think it could?
ASX.PMT
US and Canada don't seem to be getting along, so I dont expect US DOW/DOE investment to light a fire there.... that said I still hold a lot of Canadian Lithium in the James Bay region but more speculative smaller market cap... I think its a rising tide lifts all boats situation + any positive news/drilling/milestones will really rocket those little players.
 
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