AVZ Discussion 2022
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RHyNO
Regular
“It already operates about 60 projects globally.”
Any one know where these are? (Asian blink182 WTF Meme)
After re-reading the publicly available information available on the DRC-KoBold agreement (17 July 2025), I think my previous post was a bit off the mark, so I deleted it.
The DRC-KoBold agreement reads more like an MOU than an agreement, particularly around KoBold being the DRC's preferred partner, and the Resolution of Legal Disputes, where the agreement commits the DRC government to support KoBold’s efforts to purchase and develop the Manono site, including resolving ongoing legal disputes that have prevented progress—particularly those involving Australian company AVZ Minerals.
This is not a bad as I originally thought, because it does not make any binding commitments that further disadvantage AVZ Minerals.
I also find it ironic that the DRC will assist in the resolution of the ongoing legal disputes, despite it being the root cause of all this shitfuckery in the first place. Fancy the DRC clowns assisting in the resolution of their own mess...what could possibly go wrong.
Cheers
F
The DRC-KoBold agreement reads more like an MOU than an agreement, particularly around KoBold being the DRC's preferred partner, and the Resolution of Legal Disputes, where the agreement commits the DRC government to support KoBold’s efforts to purchase and develop the Manono site, including resolving ongoing legal disputes that have prevented progress—particularly those involving Australian company AVZ Minerals.
This is not a bad as I originally thought, because it does not make any binding commitments that further disadvantage AVZ Minerals.
I also find it ironic that the DRC will assist in the resolution of the ongoing legal disputes, despite it being the root cause of all this shitfuckery in the first place. Fancy the DRC clowns assisting in the resolution of their own mess...what could possibly go wrong.
Cheers
F
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KentCStrait
Regular
KoBold isn’t a mining company—it’s a software company. Their core product is a proprietary platform that aggregates geological data (old drill logs, satellite imagery, geochemical surveys, etc.) and feeds it into LLMs to predict subsurface mineralization.
They then send out field teams based on those predictions to run geophysical surveys, soil sampling, and drilling. That data gets looped back into the system to refine the model. It’s basically a machine-learning feedback loop for exploration.
The long game is to train their platform on traditional resource data so that once global warming melts away the ice caps, they can go nuts exploiting newly exposed ground. Seriously. All this talk of ethics and the environment is bullshit. They are looking to capitalise on global warming.
In the meantime, they’re burning through their venture capital. Their claim that they can “rapidly deploy” $1 billion into Manono is highly questionable, especially when they haven’t even paid AVZ yet. To me, it looks like they’re trying to leverage Manono not to mine—but to juice their credibility and next funding round.
All that said I don't really care if they can pay us. But I'm skeptical they have the money do it.
They then send out field teams based on those predictions to run geophysical surveys, soil sampling, and drilling. That data gets looped back into the system to refine the model. It’s basically a machine-learning feedback loop for exploration.
The long game is to train their platform on traditional resource data so that once global warming melts away the ice caps, they can go nuts exploiting newly exposed ground. Seriously. All this talk of ethics and the environment is bullshit. They are looking to capitalise on global warming.
In the meantime, they’re burning through their venture capital. Their claim that they can “rapidly deploy” $1 billion into Manono is highly questionable, especially when they haven’t even paid AVZ yet. To me, it looks like they’re trying to leverage Manono not to mine—but to juice their credibility and next funding round.
All that said I don't really care if they can pay us. But I'm skeptical they have the money do it.
Given CATL are a majority shareholder, I'd be surprised if they haven't thrown in an offer. At least in some roundabout way, or perhaps even encouraged Ganfeng or the likes to lob in a bid. They aren't going to allow a huge asset to slip through their fingers for pennies.
As we all know, it only takes 2 bidders to make an auction.
I see the situation as follows:
As we all know, it only takes 2 bidders to make an auction.
I see the situation as follows:
- Kobold offer in the box seat given peace for minerals deal with USA. Not guaranteed and far from the only large asset that the Americans would be interested in. USA wont let minerals for peace deal fall apart over Manono.
- CATL/Ganfeng/zijin as potential counter offer.
- Kobold to eventually stump up with enough to make BOD & CATL happy.
- I never think about the DRC again
I've been suss on Kobold since the bastards were caught touring our core samples with Celestin without asking us.
IMO they are covering their bases with the GDRC making sure they are the only game in town, and I'm still not convinced they won't come up with a way to screw us in cahoots with Felix.
I don't care how dodgy they are though, as long as we get our cash. After that Kobold and Felix can go jump.
dollarbills
Regular
I still think Kobold will not go this alone and are mainly working the background deals with DRC based on the US minerals for security deal. They will need a miner to bring this to production. And a down stream processor. So I am expecting a JV announcement of Kobold/Rio/CATH. CATH/CATL will be required to provide processing expertise even though they are Chinese. No US company will be able to do this on their own in the near term.
And CATH can do whatever paper bag stuff is required without KOBOLD getting their hands dirty.
Why on earth would Kobold do large scale exploration on RD ? Probably using their AI gear checking out all the untested other pegmatites, what's in depth and what's under the lake to realise that the resource is actually 3 x bigger than reported and the price of 12 US $ is actually a bargain...
Hi Team,
I have spoken to Geo just now, he is ok - he hasnt been well.
I am sure he will drop in and say hi at some stage.
Regards,
SilentOne
It's just BS, bigging themselves up.
They've seen the cores, they know exctly whats there.
AVZ just needs to hold it's nerve.
He's got us this far.
In Nige we trust!
Kenno61
Regular
AVZ and Bezos-backed miner KoBold Metals in standoff over deal the White House wants done
Brad ThompsonDonald Trump’s administration wants a deal done between AVZ Minerals and KoBold Metals for control of the Manono lithium project in the DRC. Picture: AFP
https://thestockexchange.com.au/javascript:window.print()
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19 hours ago
China is back in contention to control all of a vast lithium project in Africa amid a standoff between Australian company AVZ Minerals and a US company backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos.
The impasse between AVZ and KoBold Metals has left the door open for Chinese interests to reassert claims to the entire Manono project in the Democratic Republic of Congo against the wishes of the White House.
A deal between AVZ and KoBold over the southern half of the Manono project shaped as a key component of a critical minerals pact between the Trump administration and the strife-torn DRC, and a blow to China’s interests in Africa.
However, AVZ is clearly frustrated and on Monday reiterated its legal claims and victories in international arbitration that have been largely funded through support from heavyweight Chinese lithium-ion battery maker CATL. The legal backing has created a pathway for CATL to eventually own all of Manono.
DRC President Felix Tshisekedi tweeted details of an in-principle deal between his resources-rich nation and KoBold late last week. He said the deal, signed in Kinshasa, cleared the way for KoBold to apply for exploration permits covering Manamo and to digitise the nation’s geological data.
There are suggestions the US and the DRC could sign a critical minerals pact in Washington in about six weeks’ time, with the standoff with AVZ shaping as a major stumbling block.
The DRC sought US help in the face of Rwanda-backed M23 rebels causing havoc and overrunning parts of the country, with US President Donald Trump congratulating the DRC on a peace deal with Rwanda signed last month.
AVZ said it was not involved in the drafting nor a party to the deal between the DRC and KoBold, in a sign of tension between the parties.
“It (AVZ) remains open to constructive dialogue with the parties, to agree a suitable commercial outcome for AVZ shareholders, where its legal rights and existing commercial relationships are respected,” the AVZ board, chaired by John Clarke, said in a statement.
“The company confirms that discussions continue with various parties including KoBold, who wish to advance the development of the Manono project to better balance global lithium supply chains, benefiting all stakeholders, not least the people of the DRC.
“Should these discussions result in any binding commitment, then the company will appropriately advise its shareholders at that time.”
AVZ and Kobold have been unable to agree on a price for AVZ’s stake in Manono since issuing a joint statement in May.
The Australian has reported that AVZ might walk away with up to $1.5bn and a royalty. However, KoBold clearly wants to pay far less in cash upfront given the risks in the DRC and the depressed lithium market.
AVZ’s market capitalisation reached $4.6bn in 2022 on high hopes for Manono but plunged amid a dispute over ownership of the massive hard rock deposit that ultimately led to its delisting in 2024.
In their May statement, AVZ and KoBold said they recognised that “rapid, ethical development of the Manono lithium deposit should play a role in supporting peace and security”.
AVZ Minerals non-executive chairman John Clarke
“This framework entails AVZ selling its commercial interest in the Manono lithium deposit to KoBold for fair value,” they said.
“The agreement will enable KoBold to rapidly deploy more than $US1bn to bring the Manono lithium to Western markets.”
It is understood AVZ wants to wrap up a deal with KoBold in the next 30 days and before the signing of any critical minerals accord between the US and the DRC.
AVZ’s bargaining chips include recent victories in the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and the support of CATL, which listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange earlier this year.
A CATL subsidiary already owns part of AVZ and, through a deal revised in January, kicked in another $20m to fund the legal fight with the DRC over Manono.
The deal cleared the way for CATL’s Suzhou CATH Energy Technologies (CATH) to pay AVZ $US259m for a 30.5 per cent indirect interest in the Manono project, and to ultimately own all of the project.
Manono boasts an 842 million tonne resource at 1.61 per cent lithium oxide and is split into two geographically distinct northern and southern deposits. The southern part alone, sometimes referred to as Roche Dure, holds a 669 million-tonne resource.
AVZ maintains the DRC acted illegally by taking over its permit over the whole of Manono and then awarding the northern portion to Chinese mining company Zijin in September 2023.
The US has indicated in recent months it is willing to back AVZ retrieving the southern licence to minimise antagonising Beijing, given that Zijin is well advanced in developing the northern deposit.
It is understood both the US and KoBold favour a change of ownership based on AVZ and the DRC discontinuing legal action.
Skar
Regular
An interesting thing to consider is China has recently restricted the export of battery and mineral processing technology, so they are WELL aware the war/fight for dominance is on in that space... a ~10B USD cheque to lock America out of Manono (since they already hold the north and can EASILY move south but neither China/DRC seem to respect boundaries/rule of law), may just be on the cards.
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RHyNO
Regular
They’ll all sing a different tune when the ISCID rules that the DRC government did in fact “act illegally by removing AVZ rights”. Kobalt cannot do shit when not if…WHEN the ISCID rules in our favour they will be removed from any capacity to legally mine this. They do not want to lose this.
Skar
Regular
I am a bit curious when the ICSID rule DRC acted illegally by dissolving the JV, does AVZ need to start new legal proceedings to regain the north? Didn't ICSID rule to exclude that from the current proceedings on some technicality?
marksmann007
Regular
It wouldn’t surprise me if KoBold ask the US government to pony up a few billion $$$ to get the deal over the line in the name of national security rather then the whole resource slip into Chinese hands.
Mouthpiecenomnom
Regular
Absolutely they probably already have.
This is from the Australian article:
This is new info yes? Considering the source I'm taking it with a grain of salt but I love the idea.
Skar
Regular
I wonder if there is any correlation to scheduling of ICSID and the 30 day clock. It is understood by me that AVZ wanted to wrap up a deal YEARS ago with the DRC (and recently agreed to temp suspend for that reason - but were evidently kept in the dark). How can you negotiate for control of something without the rightful owner privy or represented in the negotiations?
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