AVZ Discussion 2022

[Dave Evans]

Love ya Danger thanks mate for all posts but I don't understand this one?

Just to add to what @Carlos Danger said, I believe the US previously said they were putting sanctions on CATL for supplying critical minerals to China’s military

The other comments I’ve been holding onto and struggling not to put out there are that from all the information put out by KoBold, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Australian and nearly every other media source and announcement I’ve read, I wouldn’t be surprised if

1) AVZ has already stuck the deal with KoBold

2) They’re waiting for the fat fuckwit to say he will grant the ML to KoBold (and he’s waiting for AVZ to drop arbitration)

3) As posted (then deleted) in The Australian newspaper…. KoBold offering US$1.5b plus royalties plus compensation for the north. I believe The Australian was the first media source to mention that Zijin keep the north

4) US$1.5b = AU$2.3b which I believe was roughly what was thrown around at the last AGM. That equates to around AU$0.66c a share. Perhaps this is why Jens is throwing low-ball posts out on X.

I’d be filthy if this was the case. Royalties from KoBold would have to more than match fair value given its future earnings, and compensation for the north would have to be at least US$1.5b on top of the other offers.

We know when AVZ challenged Jin Cheng’s purchase of 15% of Dathcom in the ICC, Zijin themselves put a value on our project of US$5.6b. That’s AU$2.45 per share and that’s before the resource increased by 47% to 842Mt.

And any compensation for the north would have to come originally from Zijin and would have to be guaranteed because we know they are corrupt liars.

As far as KoBold goes, we know they’re not miners so I’m expecting they will form a joint venture with Rio Tinto.

Thats why I believe shareholders shouldn’t accept any low-ball offers. The DRC are desperate for security against Rwanda backed M23 rebels, KoBold is desperate for Manono and the US is desperate for DRC critical minerals. The only ones who shouldn’t be desperate now are us, we’ve waited three years for this ICSID case to start and now we’re only 18 days away

I know others might disagree, the above may just be a starting point and are just my opinions based on what I’ve read, the fact I don’t have 53million shares and wouldn’t accept any low-ball takeover offers

 

[David Krappenschitz]

Just to add to what @Carlos Danger said, I believe the US previously said they were putting sanctions on CATL for supplying critical minerals to China’s military

The other comments I’ve been holding onto and struggling not to put out there are that from all the information put out by KoBold, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Australian and nearly every other media source and announcement I’ve read, I wouldn’t be surprised if

1) AVZ has already stuck the deal with KoBold

2) They’re waiting for the fat fuckwit to say he will grant the ML to KoBold (and he’s waiting for AVZ to drop arbitration)

3) As posted (then deleted) in The Australian newspaper…. KoBold offering US$1.5b plus royalties and compensation for the north. I believe The Australian was the first media source to mention that Zijin keep the north

4) US$1.5b = AU$2.3b which I believe was roughly what was thrown around at the last AGM. That equates to around AU$0.66c a share. Perhaps this is why Jens is throwing low-ball posts out on X.

I’d be filthy if this was the case. Royalties from KoBold would have to more than match fair value given its future earnings, and compensation for the north would have to be at least US$1b on top of the other offers.

We know when AVZ challenged Jin Cheng’s purchase of 15% of Dathcom in the ICC, Zijin themselves put a value on our project of US$5.6b

And any compensation for the north would have to come originally from Zijin and would have to be guaranteed because we know they are corrupt liars.

As far as KoBold goes, we know they’re not miners so I’m expecting they will form a joint venture with Rio Tinto.

Thats why I believe shareholders shouldn’t accept any low-ball offers. The DRC are desperate for security against Rwanda backed M23 rebels, KoBold is desperate for Manono and the US is desperate for DRC critical minerals. The only ones who shouldn’t be desperate now are us, we’ve waited three years for this ICSID case to start and now we’re only two weeks away

I know others might disagree, the above are just my opinions based on what I’ve researched and the fact I don’t have 53million shares to accept a low-ball offer

I know any opinions shared here ultimately probably won't mean shit, and I do trust that management will get the best outcome they can possibly get.

That being said $0.66c is crap. Given that as you put it, Zijin put a value of US $5.6B, and AVZ in total put US $10B, and August Cohen on X stating he thought fair value to AVZ would be US$5-7.5B.... to end up with US$1.5B or $0.66c would be getting completely shafted.
I would like to think that when Kobold say 'fair value' in their release they actually mean fair value, they know the value of the resource and have the pockets to pay up. But the voices of some prominent SHs seem to suggest to prepare for a lower buyout.

Mixed feelings atm. I can't wait for this shit to be over, but man $0.66c... to me fair value is like 3x that at least, circa $2+

gltah

 

[Spikerama]

I know any opinions shared here ultimately probably won't mean shit, and I do trust that management will get the best outcome they can possibly get.

That being said $0.66c is crap. Given that as you put it, Zijin put a value of US $5.6B, and AVZ in total put US $10B, and August Cohen on X stating he thought fair value to AVZ would be US$5-7.5B.... to end up with US$1.5B or $0.66c would be getting completely shafted.
I would like to think that when Kobold say 'fair value' in their release they actually mean fair value, they know the value of the resource and have the pockets to pay up. But the voices of some prominent SHs seem to suggest to prepare for a lower buyout.

Mixed feelings atm. I can't wait for this shit to be over, but man $0.66c... to me fair value is like 3x that at least, circa $2+

gltah

For fuck sake. Stop quoting fucking prices!!!

 

[David Krappenschitz]

For fuck sake. Stop quoting fucking prices!!!

$12

 

[Dijon101]

It's like people don't know insurance companies initially reject all claims as a company policy because 30% of people with a legitimate claim are too lazy to go after what they are owed..

With insurance companies their first offer is $0


YOU NEVER ACCEPT THE FIRST OFFER.

 

[Spikerama]

$12

Better

 

[Pokok]

I'm in!

After being on the wagon for so long you will be out in 30 mins

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

You referring to this ?
View attachment 84376

I was thinking more the DRC pineapple is Felix the Cat but his is a pineapple but yeah that's probably close enough

 

[Spikerama]

It's only Eighteen, 'till we drop the guillotine.

 

[Scoota30]

 

[Jazz]

What a difference a year makes......
Dates for these images can be seen in the top left corner. "Our" camp in the top most edge of the image

Huge amount of earthworks to the south of the Camp in Manono. Seems to show a levee of some type, maybe a runway to fly the paper bags out?

I think the pin that says "Institute Tukankamanei" has been placed in error.

 

[Mute22]

What a difference a year makes......
Dates for these images can be seen in the top left corner. "Our" camp in the top most edge of the image

Huge amount of earthworks to the south of the Camp in Manono. Seems to show a levee of some type, maybe a runway to fly the paper bags out?

I think the pin that says "Institute Tukankamanei" has been placed in error.




View attachment 84398




View attachment 84399

Makes my blood fucking boil.

We should be shipping the product by now.

Must.. not... post... feelings... on X...

 

[Colaci78]

Just to add to what @Carlos Danger said, I believe the US previously said they were putting sanctions on CATL for supplying critical minerals to China’s military

The other comments I’ve been holding onto and struggling not to put out there are that from all the information put out by KoBold, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Australian and nearly every other media source and announcement I’ve read, I wouldn’t be surprised if

1) AVZ has already stuck the deal with KoBold

2) They’re waiting for the fat fuckwit to say he will grant the ML to KoBold (and he’s waiting for AVZ to drop arbitration)

3) As posted (then deleted) in The Australian newspaper…. KoBold offering US$1.5b plus royalties plus compensation for the north. I believe The Australian was the first media source to mention that Zijin keep the north

4) US$1.5b = AU$2.3b which I believe was roughly what was thrown around at the last AGM. That equates to around AU$0.66c a share. Perhaps this is why Jens is throwing low-ball posts out on X.

I’d be filthy if this was the case. Royalties from KoBold would have to more than match fair value given its future earnings, and compensation for the north would have to be at least US$1.5b on top of the other offers.

We know when AVZ challenged Jin Cheng’s purchase of 15% of Dathcom in the ICC, Zijin themselves put a value on our project of US$5.6b. That’s AU$2.45 per share and that’s before the resource increased by 47% to 842Mt.

And any compensation for the north would have to come originally from Zijin and would have to be guaranteed because we know they are corrupt liars.

As far as KoBold goes, we know they’re not miners so I’m expecting they will form a joint venture with Rio Tinto.

Thats why I believe shareholders shouldn’t accept any low-ball offers. The DRC are desperate for security against Rwanda backed M23 rebels, KoBold is desperate for Manono and the US is desperate for DRC critical minerals. The only ones who shouldn’t be desperate now are us, we’ve waited three years for this ICSID case to start and now we’re only 18 days away

I know others might disagree, the above may just be a starting point and are just my opinions based on what I’ve read, the fact I don’t have 53million shares and wouldn’t accept any low-ball takeover offers

Do we us small shareholders have a choice in the matter or we just here for the ride??

 

[Doc]

Makes my blood fucking boil.

We should be shipping the product by now.

Must.. not... post... feelings... on X...

 

[Dazmac66]

Zijin have always known they will eventually have to pay! Nigel should keep the phone handy, let it ring 8 times and then just say $5b US for CDL or see you in Washington - click!

 

[Earlyspeed]

What a difference a year makes......
Dates for these images can be seen in the top left corner. "Our" camp in the top most edge of the image

Huge amount of earthworks to the south of the Camp in Manono. Seems to show a levee of some type, maybe a runway to fly the paper bags out?

I think the pin that says "Institute Tukankamanei" has been placed in error.




View attachment 84398




View attachment 84399

These photos are triggering for AVZ shareholders! As if that runway pictured is a massive middle finger to shareholders and ethical business practices.

Its great to see the recent developments and perhaps finally we've had a little bit of luck with the DRC needing an urgent security agreement. The only road out might have been the ICSID proceedings otherwise.

Regarding everyone's comments regarding potential sale price of project interest, I'm sure Nigel and the Board wouldn't even be in the room singing MOUs unless indicative fair value was roundabouts. A revenue royalty kicker in any contract would be a good outcome allowing shareholders a slice of any future super sized pricing in a lithium bull market. With that being said, $US12/share is a nice round number that I can certainly get around!

 

[PhatCatz]

1. Unlock the Legal Title First — at All Costs​

No clean title, no full value.

• Objective: Secure unambiguous, majority control of the Manono licenses (Dathcom + Roche Dure) with full government recognition.
• Tactics:
  • Negotiate directly with the DRC government to end arbitration cleanly.
  • Offer KoBold + U.S. backing as stabilizing, pro-development leverage.
  • Settle with other stakeholders (e.g., Cominiere or CATL-linked entities) if necessary to consolidate ownership.
• Why: A clean asset fetches a 30–50% valuation premium vs. one with legal overhang.

---

2. Run a Structured, Competitive Sale Process​

Don’t just deal with KoBold — create a bidding environment.

• Invite multiple strategic bidders: e.g., KoBold, Rio Tinto, Albemarle, Pilbara Minerals, Ganfeng, and major OEMs (e.g., Tesla, Ford).
• Position the sale as:
  • A once-in-a-decade Tier 1 lithium asset
  • With tin credits as kicker
  • At a time when Western buyers are seeking non-Chinese supply
• Consider investment banks with lithium/M&A experience (e.g., Macquarie, BMO, Citi) to run the process.
• Create competitive tension to push valuation higher.

---

3. Structure a Cash + Royalty/Equity Retention​

Don’t just sell once. Keep exposure to future upside.

• Target $U2.5B–$U4B in cash + near-term milestone payments.
• Retain a royalty (e.g., 2–3% NSR) on lithium and/or tin — this could yield $U50M+ annually for 20 years.
• Alternatively, spin out a royalty vehicle (like Osisko Royalties did) to AVZ shareholders.
• Or retain a minority equity stake (e.g., 10–20%) in the Manono SPV post-sale.

This retains upside without exposure to capex, permitting, or operating risk.

---

4. Create a Value Distribution Plan​

Clarify what shareholders actually get.

• Commit to return a large portion of sale proceedsto shareholders:
  • Special dividend
  • Share buyback
  • Capital return + ASX relisting
• This ensures AVZ doesn't become a cash shell or speculative holding company.

---

5. Leverage ESG and Strategic Supply Chain Themes​

Western buyers will pay more for ESG-aligned, non-China-controlled supply.

• Highlight:
  • ESG improvements enabled by KoBold’s tech + backing
  • Commitment to local community development in the DRC
  • Tin credits as a key strategic metal for semiconductors
• Use U.S./EU demand for “friendly lithium” as leverage to extract better terms.

---

6. Communicate Transparently with the Market​

Avoid past issues of uncertainty, delays, and opacity.

• Provide:
  • A clear timeline for resolution and sale
  • Regular shareholder updates
  • A detailed strategic roadmap
• Rebuild trust and restore institutional interest in AVZ.

---

Summary Recommendation to AVZ Board​

Action	Purpose
Resolve legal dispute	Clear title = premium sale price
Run competitive sale process	Maximize bidder interest & valuation
Structure royalty/equity retention	Keep long-term upside
Plan capital return	Reward shareholders, de-risk outcome
Leverage ESG + geopolitics	Extract higher value from Western buyers

 

[cruiser51]

These photos are triggering for AVZ shareholders! As if that runway pictured is a massive middle finger to shareholders and ethical business practices.

Its great to see the recent developments and perhaps finally we've had a little bit of luck with the DRC needing an urgent security agreement. The only road out might have been the ICSID proceedings otherwise.

Regarding everyone's comments regarding potential sale price of project interest, I'm sure Nigel and the Board wouldn't even be in the room singing MOUs unless indicative fair value was roundabouts. A revenue royalty kicker in any contract would be a good outcome allowing shareholders a slice of any future super sized pricing in a lithium bull market. With that being said, $US12/share is a nice round number that I can certainly get around!

I think it is a massive middle finger to the locals to have their water reservoir/local fishing ground drained and build an airport on it.

 

[Remark]

Looks like Jens, Maja & August are playing tag team low ball on AVZ SH's expectations

"$AVZ The US is not desperate for anything in this world. And as our new President is making clear, we will walk away from deals that does not advance our national interests or those of our allies. We hold all the cards."


https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1922496153054019939

 

[aon]

"Bison is right to say we do not know the Kobold offer, so why presume anything......But I will say this"

Really, well firstly, hello if you are in fact the original M8 from old HC, hope you are well, I always wondered where you had gone and more importantly why.....

Back to Bison and all other holders here who have concerns about Jen softening up the sheep, as for an offer of what 40c pff. Now the mention here of bribes of up to 150 mil being offered/reported, lets hope no one in our camp would ever consider taking bribes to facilitate a shit deal, I'm sure they would not! (sure 40c is better than nothing I hear, being shoved down our throats, as low-ball offers have for some time now), there hidden agendas at play here.... maybe the 21,000 investors have been softened up enough now, let's get Jen inside the T'pee to sell it to the sheep, so we don't see all those SH joining taxi and the clan in the queue taking HQ to task in court. Just my musings, probably nothing in it, hmmm.

So whats that I hear, we are only speculating on the offer based on Jen (plus others on the inside of the Tp) no if these dudes were like the rest of us plebs that observation of yours would hold water, but I say its leaky, these dudes are on a mission it would seem, the million $ ? is that mission in the interests of the 21,000 investors..... or others..... just speculating, sorry thinking out loud, maybe I'm wrong, I'm not sure at this point but it does smell.

On fair value, you have to be joking. Surely you don't really expect the majority of SH to believe that.
Yes, Lith Rm are down, so f what, they are not buying (sry attempting to steal this deposit) because they think Lith is cooked, are they.....
They want it for the opposite reason, they want to control the lith market for the next 30+ years, and they know that the price of lith will be off and running in due course, going gangbusters again. Let's get rid of the plebs for nics, and get this asset, and do whatever it takes.
Lets shut the BS down and stop insulting the majority of SH about this being a good offer, or a fair offer, or a reasonable offer, it's shit offer, an opportune offer, "A TOKEN OFFER" at best.

Sharpen your pencil, I would suggest, M&Dad/SH are sick of being f o.

ps have a pleasant day all honest SH, who are not running hidden agendas.

For those that might be interested; Just a foot note/tidy up of my post the other day, as i was pm'd on where I thought the stupid 40c rumoured offer came from, firstly it was not Jen, it would appear that troll sticky or stinky on the other channel may have been the originator.
Why am I not surprised.