AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Earlyspeed
Member
These photos are triggering for AVZ shareholders! As if that runway pictured is a massive middle finger to shareholders and ethical business practices.
Its great to see the recent developments and perhaps finally we've had a little bit of luck with the DRC needing an urgent security agreement. The only road out might have been the ICSID proceedings otherwise.
Regarding everyone's comments regarding potential sale price of project interest, I'm sure Nigel and the Board wouldn't even be in the room singing MOUs unless indicative fair value was roundabouts. A revenue royalty kicker in any contract would be a good outcome allowing shareholders a slice of any future super sized pricing in a lithium bull market. With that being said, $US12/share is a nice round number that I can certainly get around!
1. Unlock the Legal Title First — at All Costs
- Objective: Secure unambiguous, majority control of the Manono licenses (Dathcom + Roche Dure) with full government recognition.
- Tactics:
- Negotiate directly with the DRC government to end arbitration cleanly.
- Offer KoBold + U.S. backing as stabilizing, pro-development leverage.
- Settle with other stakeholders (e.g., Cominiere or CATL-linked entities) if necessary to consolidate ownership.
- Why: A clean asset fetches a 30–50% valuation premium vs. one with legal overhang.
2. Run a Structured, Competitive Sale Process
- Invite multiple strategic bidders: e.g., KoBold, Rio Tinto, Albemarle, Pilbara Minerals, Ganfeng, and major OEMs (e.g., Tesla, Ford).
- Position the sale as:
- A once-in-a-decade Tier 1 lithium asset
- With tin credits as kicker
- At a time when Western buyers are seeking non-Chinese supply
- Consider investment banks with lithium/M&A experience (e.g., Macquarie, BMO, Citi) to run the process.
- Create competitive tension to push valuation higher.
3. Structure a Cash + Royalty/Equity Retention
- Target $U2.5B–$U4B in cash + near-term milestone payments.
- Retain a royalty (e.g., 2–3% NSR) on lithium and/or tin — this could yield $U50M+ annually for 20 years.
- Alternatively, spin out a royalty vehicle (like Osisko Royalties did) to AVZ shareholders.
- Or retain a minority equity stake (e.g., 10–20%) in the Manono SPV post-sale.
4. Create a Value Distribution Plan
- Commit to return a large portion of sale proceedsto shareholders:
- Special dividend
- Share buyback
- Capital return + ASX relisting
- This ensures AVZ doesn't become a cash shell or speculative holding company.
5. Leverage ESG and Strategic Supply Chain Themes
- Highlight:
- ESG improvements enabled by KoBold’s tech + backing
- Commitment to local community development in the DRC
- Tin credits as a key strategic metal for semiconductors
- Use U.S./EU demand for “friendly lithium” as leverage to extract better terms.
6. Communicate Transparently with the Market
- Provide:
- A clear timeline for resolution and sale
- Regular shareholder updates
- A detailed strategic roadmap
- Rebuild trust and restore institutional interest in AVZ.
Summary Recommendation to AVZ Board
| Action | Purpose |
|---|---|
| Resolve legal dispute | Clear title = premium sale price |
| Run competitive sale process | Maximize bidder interest & valuation |
| Structure royalty/equity retention | Keep long-term upside |
| Plan capital return | Reward shareholders, de-risk outcome |
| Leverage ESG + geopolitics | Extract higher value from Western buyers |
cruiser51
Top 20
I think it is a massive middle finger to the locals to have their water reservoir/local fishing ground drained and build an airport on it.
Remark
Top 20
Looks like Jens, Maja & August are playing tag team low ball on AVZ SH's expectations
"$AVZ The US is not desperate for anything in this world. And as our new President is making clear, we will walk away from deals that does not advance our national interests or those of our allies. We hold all the cards."
https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1922496153054019939
"$AVZ The US is not desperate for anything in this world. And as our new President is making clear, we will walk away from deals that does not advance our national interests or those of our allies. We hold all the cards."
https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1922496153054019939
For those that might be interested; Just a foot note/tidy up of my post the other day, as i was pm'd on where I thought the stupid 40c rumoured offer came from, firstly it was not Jen, it would appear that troll sticky or stinky on the other channel may have been the originator."Bison is right to say we do not know the Kobold offer, so why presume anything......But I will say this"
Really, well firstly, hello if you are in fact the original M8 from old HC, hope you are well, I always wondered where you had gone and more importantly why.....
Back to Bison and all other holders here who have concerns about Jen softening up the sheep, as for an offer of what 40c pff. Now the mention here of bribes of up to 150 mil being offered/reported, lets hope no one in our camp would ever consider taking bribes to facilitate a shit deal, I'm sure they would not! (sure 40c is better than nothing I hear, being shoved down our throats, as low-ball offers have for some time now), there hidden agendas at play here.... maybe the 21,000 investors have been softened up enough now, let's get Jen inside the T'pee to sell it to the sheep, so we don't see all those SH joining taxi and the clan in the queue taking HQ to task in court. Just my musings, probably nothing in it, hmmm.
So whats that I hear, we are only speculating on the offer based on Jen (plus others on the inside of the Tp) no if these dudes were like the rest of us plebs that observation of yours would hold water, but I say its leaky, these dudes are on a mission it would seem, the million $ ? is that mission in the interests of the 21,000 investors..... or others..... just speculating, sorry thinking out loud, maybe I'm wrong, I'm not sure at this point but it does smell.
On fair value, you have to be joking. Surely you don't really expect the majority of SH to believe that.
Yes, Lith Rm are down, so f what, they are not buying (sry attempting to steal this deposit) because they think Lith is cooked, are they.....
They want it for the opposite reason, they want to control the lith market for the next 30+ years, and they know that the price of lith will be off and running in due course, going gangbusters again. Let's get rid of the plebs for nics, and get this asset, and do whatever it takes.
Lets shut the BS down and stop insulting the majority of SH about this being a good offer, or a fair offer, or a reasonable offer, it's shit offer, an opportune offer, "A TOKEN OFFER" at best.
Sharpen your pencil, I would suggest, M&Dad/SH are sick of being f o.
ps have a pleasant day all honest SH, who are not running hidden agendas.
Why am I not surprised.
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Skar
Regular
I am not worried about it, our management team, kobold and the DRC/US governments need to sort out affairs now I doubt some twitter or forums posts will sway matters at all. Besides the top 20 shareholders of AVZ own half the company. Which means retail holders opinions (or even those who consider themselves sophisticated) won't matter at all.
I do agree with August though on what he says about the US, you can't strong arm them or paint them as being desperate by any stretch. What we have is a very valuable asset, literally the only one in its class available. They could actualise over a 20-30x return on a fair value sale and everyone would still be happy (even at 30x thats likely well over a 10B sale, maybe even 20B over its lifetime - this is a 30+ year mine... they literally cannot measure the lifetime value because it scales outside most models). 669 Million tonnes of lithium at/near surface drilled out ready for mining/processing (Kobold say their AI predicts a lot more undrilled out there too, 15% of global supply once online), abundance of tin and tantalum. Also with or without Manono, the infrastructure will be built, the security for minerals is going ahead and as much much more copper will be needed globally (and cobalt). So if the value is there we can sell, if its not we can hold out. Despite what twitter says.
Azzler
Top 20
Why would shareholders be interested in low balling their own sale price?
I think your language on this is absurd and you're off the reservation.
Skar
Regular
They are probably after an exit, not sure if it was Jens or another sizeable holder, that said they were 40s and could afford to buy all the toys on a sale and they wanted to enjoy it while they are young enough to, not when they are in their 50s.
The correct treatment of cgt alone could warrant up to a half price sale discount and yield a better outcome for shareholders. So everyones position is different.
I mean... this is the Internet...Just wait and see what the offer is and can everyone stop being completely mental all of a sudden! Thanks
Mute22
Regular
I believe Jens and Maja are allowing their personal circumstances to heavily influence their perspective. They’ve both indicated a strong desire to exit and have faced challenges largely driven by financial pressures.
They’re baby boomers who purchased at much lower prices and in significant volume, and now they’re looking to retire. I understand their position truly, I do. I also bought in at a relatively low price, but being younger, I’m more comfortable riding this out in pursuit of a stronger long-term return and with greater tolerance for risk.
I suspect many others are in a similar situation younger investors who have already sacrificed a lot in terms of starting families or entering the housing market. While I respect the challenges faced by older holders, I find it difficult to sympathize with those who took on concentrated risk so close to retirement. After having lived through the strongest decades of Western growth in history, you had your chance to take on risk while young, your generation have cultivated ridiculous wealth while holding the ladder, now let me get a step on.
Skar
Regular
Careful now, you will get me fired up on the insane 0-risk irrational wealth accumulation from Sydney house prices from those with means vs those without over the last 5-10 years!!!
Azzler
Top 20
I don't believe that's true, but lets just say it is for the sake of argument.
You believe that accepting maybe $1 or $1.50 is a mistake because if we wait longer, we can get more.
And these SH just want whatever we can get now because they're old.
Have you considered that they realise it's the best forseable outcome right now?
Have you not see the depths of corruption the DRC will go to?
If we say no to the USA, who exactly is going to come save us? We will again be alone on the DRC with them wanting us dead and buried.
If the USA walk away, I don't know what people are dreaming about? You think waiting 10 Years to get maybe a few cents on the dollar is better?
Baffling, and I blame to $12 folks who have set completely unreasonable expectations.
Frank
Top 20
Big diff between $1 and $1.50, at $1 i'd be pissed as that's not fair value plus partial compensation, at $1.50 it may be palatable for many even though the asset and damages are worth a shit load more
Skar
Regular
Big diff between a $1.50 unfranked dividend and a $1 capital buy back too. They said they may only sell the mine, we want them to buy the whole company really.
Scoota30
Regular
How admirable of August. like someone on X commented under, that he hides behind Trumps strength after being so critical of him for so long. Unfortunately this is one of those rare L's of August because he is clearly wrong. At the moment Nigel holds all of the cards & 75% legal title plus FROR for 15% more and the US might not publicly show they are desperate, but their executive orders and other bills (actions) speak louder than their words. There's no denying the US involvement is a net positive for all involved, but to say they "hold all the cards" is completely untrue.
In saying that, they can buy the entire deck for $12 USD and then they will hold all of the cards
Frank
Top 20
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Stockinvesting
Regular
Well said. Agree totally. Wake up Mute22.
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