AVZ Discussion 2022

Frank

Top 20
Maybe CATH can do a deal with Trumpy. Say they'll build a few battery plants in the good 'ol US of A with American employees if he'll look the other way for this security for minerals deal. They give us 10B, they get the spod, Trump gets jobs for Americans and we get drunk

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American energy sector set to invest $100B in battery storage by 2030

Members of the US energy industry has committed to investing $100 billion over the next five years to build and buy American-made batteries for large, utility-scale deployments of battery energy storage systems (BESS).

Executives from the American Clean Power Association (ACP) and several utility company representatives said Tuesday that they were committed to a fivefold increase in active investments that could, according to the Association, lead to 100% American-made BESS projects – but that vision depends on both a streamlined permitting environment and predictable tax and trade policy, the ACP said.

This commitments “demonstrate what success can look like,” said ACP CEO Jason Grumet, adding that many industry players have been waiting in a sort of holding pattern until some long-term clarity develops around Trump’s tariff and trade policies.

“There is a remarkable tension right now between probably the best fundamentals for investment in the energy sector that we’ve seen in a generation and the greatest amount of uncertainty that we’ve seen in a generation.”

Those fundamentals involve rapidly dropping battery costs with increasing density – and that efficiency improvement is coming with reliability, too, Hyundai joining Tesla (and others) in delivering batteries good for hundreds of thousands of miles of driving.

The tension, of course, comes from the fact that most batteries, today, are made in Asia.

Form Energy CEO Mateo Jaramillo says his company sources more than 80% of its battery content in the US and much of the rest from Europe and “non-China Asia.” And, while they’re working to re-shore even more, they remain exposed to heavily tariffed Chinese-made inputs.

Form eventually hopes to source raw iron from US mines in Michigan and Minnesota – and they’re not alone. Executives from other companies spoke up as well:

COVID-era disruptions across the global battery supply chain convinced Fluence that an energy storage market as robust as the United States’ needed a stronger domestic manufacturing base, Fluence Americas President John Zurancik said in the press briefing.

The company’s U.S. investments are now bearing fruit as it expects to deliver its first U.S.-made lithium-iron-phosphate, or LFP, batteries this week for deployment later this year, he said.

Like Fluence, LG Energy Solution Vertech expects to significantly expand its U.S. manufacturing operations in 2025 and 2026.

The South Korean battery powerhouse will adapt existing production lines at its Holland, Michigan, factory to deliver 16.5 GWh of stationary storage batteries this year and add 11 GWh of new capacity in 2026, its CEO said in a statement provided by ACP.

Even industry stalwarts like Wärtsilä have begun sourcing components for the container-based Quantum 3 BESS system we covered last summer from a geographically diverse set of suppliers, with manufacturing capacity across different regions of North America, Asia, and Europe.

This should enable the company’s customers to take advantage of any local tax incentives while avoiding the kind of tariffs impacting global battery markets.

The ACP’s announcement adds about $85 billion to a set of “active investments” worth $10 billion to $15 billion, executives with the trade group said in a press briefing.

Electrek’s Take​

Battery energy storage just makes sense – and it’s being leveraged in smart ways by companies like Zenobē, who are using smart BESS deployments to help hold down ratepayer costs while improving grid resilience and reliability.

Volvo, too, is working to develop rapidly deployable BESS solutions that can support temporary job sites and disaster relief efforts.

Then there’s the rich people.

Located in Abu Dhabi, the world’s largest storage project will feature a 5.2 GW solar PV plant coupled with a 19 gigawatt-hour (GWh) BESS.

You can check that out here, then let us know what you think of all these projects in the comments.

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Dave Evans

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Love ya Danger thanks mate for all posts but I don't understand this one?

Just to add to what @Carlos Danger said, I believe the US previously said they were putting sanctions on CATL for supplying critical minerals to China’s military

The other comments I’ve been holding onto and struggling not to put out there are that from all the information put out by KoBold, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Australian and nearly every other media source and announcement I’ve read, I wouldn’t be surprised if

1) AVZ has already stuck the deal with KoBold

2) They’re waiting for the fat fuckwit to say he will grant the ML to KoBold (and he’s waiting for AVZ to drop arbitration)

3) As posted (then deleted) in The Australian newspaper…. KoBold offering US$1.5b plus royalties plus compensation for the north. I believe The Australian was the first media source to mention that Zijin keep the north

4) US$1.5b = AU$2.3b which I believe was roughly what was thrown around at the last AGM. That equates to around AU$0.66c a share. Perhaps this is why Jens is throwing low-ball posts out on X.

I’d be filthy if this was the case. Royalties from KoBold would have to more than match fair value given its future earnings, and compensation for the north would have to be at least US$1.5b on top of the other offers.

We know when AVZ challenged Jin Cheng’s purchase of 15% of Dathcom in the ICC, Zijin themselves put a value on our project of US$5.6b. That’s AU$2.45 per share and that’s before the resource increased by 47% to 842Mt.

And any compensation for the north would have to come originally from Zijin and would have to be guaranteed because we know they are corrupt liars.

As far as KoBold goes, we know they’re not miners so I’m expecting they will form a joint venture with Rio Tinto.

Thats why I believe shareholders shouldn’t accept any low-ball offers. The DRC are desperate for security against Rwanda backed M23 rebels, KoBold is desperate for Manono and the US is desperate for DRC critical minerals. The only ones who shouldn’t be desperate now are us, we’ve waited three years for this ICSID case to start and now we’re only 18 days away

I know others might disagree, the above may just be a starting point and are just my opinions based on what I’ve read, the fact I don’t have 53million shares and wouldn’t accept any low-ball takeover offers
 
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Just to add to what @Carlos Danger said, I believe the US previously said they were putting sanctions on CATL for supplying critical minerals to China’s military

The other comments I’ve been holding onto and struggling not to put out there are that from all the information put out by KoBold, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Australian and nearly every other media source and announcement I’ve read, I wouldn’t be surprised if

1) AVZ has already stuck the deal with KoBold

2) They’re waiting for the fat fuckwit to say he will grant the ML to KoBold (and he’s waiting for AVZ to drop arbitration)

3) As posted (then deleted) in The Australian newspaper…. KoBold offering US$1.5b plus royalties and compensation for the north. I believe The Australian was the first media source to mention that Zijin keep the north

4) US$1.5b = AU$2.3b which I believe was roughly what was thrown around at the last AGM. That equates to around AU$0.66c a share. Perhaps this is why Jens is throwing low-ball posts out on X.

I’d be filthy if this was the case. Royalties from KoBold would have to more than match fair value given its future earnings, and compensation for the north would have to be at least US$1b on top of the other offers.

We know when AVZ challenged Jin Cheng’s purchase of 15% of Dathcom in the ICC, Zijin themselves put a value on our project of US$5.6b

And any compensation for the north would have to come originally from Zijin and would have to be guaranteed because we know they are corrupt liars.

As far as KoBold goes, we know they’re not miners so I’m expecting they will form a joint venture with Rio Tinto.

Thats why I believe shareholders shouldn’t accept any low-ball offers. The DRC are desperate for security against Rwanda backed M23 rebels, KoBold is desperate for Manono and the US is desperate for DRC critical minerals. The only ones who shouldn’t be desperate now are us, we’ve waited three years for this ICSID case to start and now we’re only two weeks away

I know others might disagree, the above are just my opinions based on what I’ve researched and the fact I don’t have 53million shares to accept a low-ball offer

I know any opinions shared here ultimately probably won't mean shit, and I do trust that management will get the best outcome they can possibly get.

That being said $0.66c is crap. Given that as you put it, Zijin put a value of US $5.6B, and AVZ in total put US $10B, and August Cohen on X stating he thought fair value to AVZ would be US$5-7.5B.... to end up with US$1.5B or $0.66c would be getting completely shafted.
I would like to think that when Kobold say 'fair value' in their release they actually mean fair value, they know the value of the resource and have the pockets to pay up. But the voices of some prominent SHs seem to suggest to prepare for a lower buyout.

Mixed feelings atm. I can't wait for this shit to be over, but man $0.66c... to me fair value is like 3x that at least, circa $2+

gltah
 
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Spikerama

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I know any opinions shared here ultimately probably won't mean shit, and I do trust that management will get the best outcome they can possibly get.

That being said $0.66c is crap. Given that as you put it, Zijin put a value of US $5.6B, and AVZ in total put US $10B, and August Cohen on X stating he thought fair value to AVZ would be US$5-7.5B.... to end up with US$1.5B or $0.66c would be getting completely shafted.
I would like to think that when Kobold say 'fair value' in their release they actually mean fair value, they know the value of the resource and have the pockets to pay up. But the voices of some prominent SHs seem to suggest to prepare for a lower buyout.

Mixed feelings atm. I can't wait for this shit to be over, but man $0.66c... to me fair value is like 3x that at least, circa $2+

gltah

For fuck sake. Stop quoting fucking prices!!!
 
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Dijon101

Regular
It's like people don't know insurance companies initially reject all claims as a company policy because 30% of people with a legitimate claim are too lazy to go after what they are owed..

With insurance companies their first offer is $0


YOU NEVER ACCEPT THE FIRST OFFER.
 
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Dave Evans

Regular

Hope you know I’m not quoting prices Spike, I’m rallying the faithful to prepare to fight, just like we did against the stooges

And seeing it’s once again after midnight, I’m going to beat you to this again today👇

IMG_9270.jpeg


 

Dave Evans

Regular
Just to add to what @Carlos Danger said, I believe the US previously said they were putting sanctions on CATL for supplying critical minerals to China’s military

The other comments I’ve been holding onto and struggling not to put out there are that from all the information put out by KoBold, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Australian and nearly every other media source and announcement I’ve read, I wouldn’t be surprised if

1) AVZ has already stuck the deal with KoBold

2) They’re waiting for the fat fuckwit to say he will grant the ML to KoBold (and he’s waiting for AVZ to drop arbitration)

3) As posted (then deleted) in The Australian newspaper…. KoBold offering US$1.5b plus royalties and compensation for the north. I believe The Australian was the first media source to mention that Zijin keep the north

4) US$1.5b = AU$2.3b which I believe was roughly what was thrown around at the last AGM. That equates to around AU$0.66c a share. Perhaps this is why Jens is throwing low-ball posts out on X.

I’d be filthy if this was the case. Royalties from KoBold would have to more than match fair value given its future earnings, and compensation for the north would have to be at least US$1b on top of the other offers.

We know when AVZ challenged Jin Cheng’s purchase of 15% of Dathcom in the ICC, Zijin themselves put a value on our project of US$5.6b. That’s AU$2.45 per share and that’s before the resource increased by 47% to 842Mt.

And any compensation for the north would have to come originally from Zijin and would have to be guaranteed because we know they are corrupt liars.

As far as KoBold goes, we know they’re not miners so I’m expecting they will form a joint venture with Rio Tinto.

Thats why I believe shareholders shouldn’t accept any low-ball offers. The DRC are desperate for security against Rwanda backed M23 rebels, KoBold is desperate for Manono and the US is desperate for DRC critical minerals. The only ones who shouldn’t be desperate now are us, we’ve waited three years for this ICSID case to start and now we’re only 18 days away

I know others might disagree, the above are just my opinions based on what I’ve researched and the fact I don’t have 53million shares to accept a low-ball offer

Going by Zijin’s own valuation of our project being AU$2.50 per share, plus the resource increase of 47% to 842Mt means Nigel should be saying

IMG_9275.jpeg
 

Pokok

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After being on the wagon for so long you will be out in 30 mins
 
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DiscoDanNZ

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Spikerama

Regular
It's only Eighteen, 'till we drop the guillotine.


avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app_ (46).png
 
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Scoota30

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🍿🍿🍿

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Jazz

Regular
What a difference a year makes......
Dates for these images can be seen in the top left corner. "Our" camp in the top most edge of the image

Huge amount of earthworks to the south of the Camp in Manono. Seems to show a levee of some type, maybe a runway to fly the paper bags out?

I think the pin that says "Institute Tukankamanei" has been placed in error.




Screenshot 2025-05-14 105104 Runway 2024.png





Screenshot 2025-05-14 105208 Runway 2025.png
 
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Mute22

Regular
What a difference a year makes......
Dates for these images can be seen in the top left corner. "Our" camp in the top most edge of the image

Huge amount of earthworks to the south of the Camp in Manono. Seems to show a levee of some type, maybe a runway to fly the paper bags out?

I think the pin that says "Institute Tukankamanei" has been placed in error.




View attachment 84398




View attachment 84399
Makes my blood fucking boil.

We should be shipping the product by now.

Must.. not... post... feelings... on X...
rage GIF
 
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Colaci78

Member
Just to add to what @Carlos Danger said, I believe the US previously said they were putting sanctions on CATL for supplying critical minerals to China’s military

The other comments I’ve been holding onto and struggling not to put out there are that from all the information put out by KoBold, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Australian and nearly every other media source and announcement I’ve read, I wouldn’t be surprised if

1) AVZ has already stuck the deal with KoBold

2) They’re waiting for the fat fuckwit to say he will grant the ML to KoBold (and he’s waiting for AVZ to drop arbitration)

3) As posted (then deleted) in The Australian newspaper…. KoBold offering US$1.5b plus royalties plus compensation for the north. I believe The Australian was the first media source to mention that Zijin keep the north

4) US$1.5b = AU$2.3b which I believe was roughly what was thrown around at the last AGM. That equates to around AU$0.66c a share. Perhaps this is why Jens is throwing low-ball posts out on X.

I’d be filthy if this was the case. Royalties from KoBold would have to more than match fair value given its future earnings, and compensation for the north would have to be at least US$1.5b on top of the other offers.

We know when AVZ challenged Jin Cheng’s purchase of 15% of Dathcom in the ICC, Zijin themselves put a value on our project of US$5.6b. That’s AU$2.45 per share and that’s before the resource increased by 47% to 842Mt.

And any compensation for the north would have to come originally from Zijin and would have to be guaranteed because we know they are corrupt liars.

As far as KoBold goes, we know they’re not miners so I’m expecting they will form a joint venture with Rio Tinto.

Thats why I believe shareholders shouldn’t accept any low-ball offers. The DRC are desperate for security against Rwanda backed M23 rebels, KoBold is desperate for Manono and the US is desperate for DRC critical minerals. The only ones who shouldn’t be desperate now are us, we’ve waited three years for this ICSID case to start and now we’re only 18 days away

I know others might disagree, the above may just be a starting point and are just my opinions based on what I’ve read, the fact I don’t have 53million shares and wouldn’t accept any low-ball takeover offers
Do we us small shareholders have a choice in the matter or we just here for the ride??
 

Doc

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Dazmac66

Regular
Zijin have always known they will eventually have to pay! Nigel should keep the phone handy, let it ring 8 times and then just say $5b US for CDL or see you in Washington - click!
 
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Earlyspeed

Member
What a difference a year makes......
Dates for these images can be seen in the top left corner. "Our" camp in the top most edge of the image

Huge amount of earthworks to the south of the Camp in Manono. Seems to show a levee of some type, maybe a runway to fly the paper bags out?

I think the pin that says "Institute Tukankamanei" has been placed in error.




View attachment 84398




View attachment 84399
These photos are triggering for AVZ shareholders! As if that runway pictured is a massive middle finger to shareholders and ethical business practices.

Its great to see the recent developments and perhaps finally we've had a little bit of luck with the DRC needing an urgent security agreement. The only road out might have been the ICSID proceedings otherwise.

Regarding everyone's comments regarding potential sale price of project interest, I'm sure Nigel and the Board wouldn't even be in the room singing MOUs unless indicative fair value was roundabouts. A revenue royalty kicker in any contract would be a good outcome allowing shareholders a slice of any future super sized pricing in a lithium bull market. With that being said, $US12/share is a nice round number that I can certainly get around!
 
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PhatCatz

Regular

🔷 1. Unlock the Legal Title First — at All Costs

No clean title, no full value.
  • Objective: Secure unambiguous, majority control of the Manono licenses (Dathcom + Roche Dure) with full government recognition.
  • Tactics:
    • Negotiate directly with the DRC government to end arbitration cleanly.
    • Offer KoBold + U.S. backing as stabilizing, pro-development leverage.
    • Settle with other stakeholders (e.g., Cominiere or CATL-linked entities) if necessary to consolidate ownership.
  • Why: A clean asset fetches a 30–50% valuation premium vs. one with legal overhang.

🔷 2. Run a Structured, Competitive Sale Process

Don’t just deal with KoBold — create a bidding environment.
  • Invite multiple strategic bidders: e.g., KoBold, Rio Tinto, Albemarle, Pilbara Minerals, Ganfeng, and major OEMs (e.g., Tesla, Ford).
  • Position the sale as:
    • A once-in-a-decade Tier 1 lithium asset
    • With tin credits as kicker
    • At a time when Western buyers are seeking non-Chinese supply
  • Consider investment banks with lithium/M&A experience (e.g., Macquarie, BMO, Citi) to run the process.
  • Create competitive tension to push valuation higher.

🔷 3. Structure a Cash + Royalty/Equity Retention

Don’t just sell once. Keep exposure to future upside.
  • Target $U2.5B–$U4B in cash + near-term milestone payments.
  • Retain a royalty (e.g., 2–3% NSR) on lithium and/or tin — this could yield $U50M+ annually for 20 years.
  • Alternatively, spin out a royalty vehicle (like Osisko Royalties did) to AVZ shareholders.
  • Or retain a minority equity stake (e.g., 10–20%) in the Manono SPV post-sale.
This retains upside without exposure to capex, permitting, or operating risk.


🔷 4. Create a Value Distribution Plan

Clarify what shareholders actually get.
  • Commit to return a large portion of sale proceedsto shareholders:
    • Special dividend
    • Share buyback
    • Capital return + ASX relisting
  • This ensures AVZ doesn't become a cash shell or speculative holding company.

🔷 5. Leverage ESG and Strategic Supply Chain Themes

Western buyers will pay more for ESG-aligned, non-China-controlled supply.
  • Highlight:
    • ESG improvements enabled by KoBold’s tech + backing
    • Commitment to local community development in the DRC
    • Tin credits as a key strategic metal for semiconductors
  • Use U.S./EU demand for “friendly lithium” as leverage to extract better terms.

🔷 6. Communicate Transparently with the Market

Avoid past issues of uncertainty, delays, and opacity.
  • Provide:
    • A clear timeline for resolution and sale
    • Regular shareholder updates
    • A detailed strategic roadmap
  • Rebuild trust and restore institutional interest in AVZ.

✅ Summary Recommendation to AVZ Board​

ActionPurpose
Resolve legal disputeClear title = premium sale price
Run competitive sale processMaximize bidder interest & valuation
Structure royalty/equity retentionKeep long-term upside
Plan capital returnReward shareholders, de-risk outcome
Leverage ESG + geopoliticsExtract higher value from Western buyers
 
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