AVZ Discussion 2022

[hedrox]

In 2020 AVZ’s targeted annual production was 700,000 tonnes of SC6 (lithium / spodumene concentrate) which equates to over 100,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) annually. That’s at least 33% more than what Arcadium is producing from its mines

That’s back when AVZ was targeting mining 4.5Mt of ore annually, then they looked at expanding to 10Mt annually so you can take that 100,000 tonnes of LCE annually and more than double it to over 200,000 tonnes of LCE annually

I guess Nigel must be itching to release the BFS Bankable Feasibility Study, which we didn't see yet.I remember that Nigel mentioned before our suspension that the BFS is nearly complete and will be released after the mining license is granted. The latest DFS was from April 2020 and was based on....

With all the drilling after the 2020 DFS a 10 Mt / per year operation is definitely on the cards. I would imagine the BFS would be a nice carrot to dangle in front of Kobold when it comes to negotiations......otherwise

 

[Carlos Danger]

Both Jens and Deboss have a direct line to the Bat Phone. Could Jens have a heads up on the type of numbers being discussed and trying to temper punters expectations?

No more to pay

 

[Goldenboy]

Has Jens been playing golf with Nige again? attempting to soften SHs with the sale price..

If so he probably took a ball to the head ….. he has gone soft !!! $1

 

[Goldenboy]

Both Jens and Deboss have a direct line to the Bat Phone. Could Jens have a heads up on the type of numbers being discussed and trying to temper punters expectations?

Jens is not on a direct line anymore if you believe what is whispered in the wind. Trust issues ….??

 

[Samus]

Sounds to me like we'd be better to proceed with arbitration instead of entertaining those sort of figures.
Get awarded our 10b+ compo and when the Americans start investing the hundreds of billions they're talking about, have the world bank seize the funds on our behalf.
They'd be better to pay fairly now.

 

[Spikerama]

Obviously those with more shares will receive more total $$$. With an offer of $1 plus, everyone with a few million shares will get $5-$10 mill before taxes. Nigel resisted selling out to the Chinese for cents. I think he is trying to get the absolute best deal he possibly can.

If a $2+ offer is not coming, then it doesn't really benefit anyone to keep pushing for that figure and being angry when we don't get it. Everyone is aware that the alternative is going through arbitration and trying to recover assets over the next decade. We all know the challenges faced. A $1 to $1.30 is not a fair price for the project, but it beats arbitration for the next 10 years and recovering cents on the dollar.

Something smells very fishy to me. Including you.

 

[Skar]

Obviously those with more shares will receive more total $$$. With an offer of $1 plus, everyone with a few million shares will get $5-$10 mill before taxes. Nigel resisted selling out to the Chinese for cents. I think he is trying to get the absolute best deal he possibly can.

If a $2+ offer is not coming, then it doesn't really benefit anyone to keep pushing for that figure and being angry when we don't get it. Everyone is aware that the alternative is going through arbitration and trying to recover assets over the next decade. We all know the challenges faced. A $1 to $1.30 is not a fair price for the project, but it beats arbitration for the next 10 years and recovering cents on the dollar.

Except that America are investing BILLIONS in Africa to get TRILLIONS out. There is no rush for a sale of AVZ... if Manono is not a part of the initial US investment, the US are still building the Lobito corridor... Kobold have many many other assets they are investing in in Africa (ours is just the best - thus it deserves a premium).

We can find another US partner down the line or we can proceed through courts with Cath. This perception of a rushed sale/last chance nonsense is pure propaganda. This is the START of a massive global shift, Africa investment from 2025+ will go parabolic, the population is growing, western ones are declining.

I don't expect our management to sell out shareholders cheaply now. Nigel has made it clear from the start he knows what he has. Dont let the tree shaking rob us all of a fortune. Transformation is happening.

 

[Dave Evans]

This is bizarre! really dont get it!!

https://x.com/emil_jens/status/1921397434430705982?t=yna_DdkrRPTZ80F2kreOIQ&s=19

Jens seems to be a bit of a fkwit lately.

1. The deal is happening only because country risk is being removed as an element. Once the US sign on for this, nothing in the world is going to stop them from taking it. So they are not getting a discount for country risk, they are paying a premium for certainty.

2. Everyone who has invested in lithium has done so because of the price growth potential due to a once in a century energy system transformation, so no one is gonna accept a price based on short term price lulls. Kobold also know this too, but hey you know what fine if that's their perspective then we do a deal based on current lithium prices but AVZ retains 80% earning on every tonnes of lithium sold above that price.

Step up or shut up Jens.

Ridiculous that Jens talks down the share price

A while back I changed from criticising Jens to supporting him but he is a panic merchant and this kind of talking down the share price should stop. It’s hard to imagine Nigel would be telling him behind the scenes to lower expectations and between him and August Cohen doing it I suspect KoBold is still trying to come in with a low-ball offer.

I’m sick of posting on here about KoBold, things were better when shareholders just accepted we had litigation funding and were going all the way to the ICSID, before KoBold came along telling everyone they were buying us out. KoBold are just rich opportunists who were never around to support us when we needed it.

As you say @JNRB the risks have been lowered because the US has reportedly signed an agreement to provide infrastructure worth $6 billion towards the Lobito corridor, the US are working on peace and minerals agreements with the DRC and Rwanda and a security for minerals deal with the DRC, and they already have Erik Prince (former Navy Seal, Trump advocate and founder of the private military company Blackwater) operating in the DRC.

The US is already making it clear they won’t tolerate the corruption and lack of transparency so KoBold throwing in the old risk excuse is bullshit. The KoBold owners have hundreds of billions in their own personal pockets and access to around a trillion if you throw in their already joint venture partner BHP, and Michael Bloomberg (who is the major shareholder in Bloomberg & a shareholder in KoBold) has already told us that Rio Tinto was in Kinshasa talking to the fat cunt and could be part of a joint venture with KoBold.

@hedrox I think the price used in the ICC claim that’s around $10 billion might be from the BFS

 

[Xerof]

August has only ever mentioned UD5b to US7.5b.

His comment that AVZ share price hadn’t been over US1 was calling out the fucking wanker who claimed he’d be making a loss if that’s all we get.

 

[Samus]

August has only ever mentioned UD5b to US7.5b.

His comment that AVZ share price hadn’t been over US1 was calling out the fucking wanker who claimed he’d be making a loss if that’s all we get.

US7.5b that's a 25% discount on our damages bill and nearly tree fiddy.
Probably a good starting point.

 

[Pokok]

So arbitration can take a decade well I don't have that much time and I suspect the USA does not either

 

[RHyNO]

Something smells very fishy to me. Including you.

And the math! The math and it’s poster smells like a Tassal feed lot

 

[wombat74]

No more to pay
View attachment 84273

I'll show this to my wife . It looks very satisfying.

 

[BRICK]

In most arbitration cases the amount awarded is lower than initial damages claim. Then DRC delay and don't pay and settle for a lower amount...then they don't pay that.

Will holding out for longer make Kobold come up further due to the opportunity they are missing whilst delaying? Possibly. I suspect that is what Nigel is trying to do right now, hence the announcement said the framework was non binding. DRC is letting the north be developed by Zijin with our case pending. Will they do the same with the south regardless of legality? Unsure.

People are wondering why Jens is saying what he's saying and I think this is why.

I'm in my 30s. $5-10m is enough for me to buy the house, cars etc that I want and to only work if I feel like it. I want the money now though, not when I'm 50. Jens has more shares and much older than me

So I see both sides of it. $1.00 to $1.30 is NOT really fair value for the project, but we are not dealing with people that are fair.

I am SICK of waiting.

$11.99

 

[Spikerama]

And the math! The math and it’s poster smells like a Tassal feed lot

Yes, fishier than a festering flathead fillet forgotten in a fucked-up freezer.

 

[PhatCatz]

Obviously those with more shares will receive more total $$$. With an offer of $1 plus, everyone with a few million shares will get $5-$10 mill before taxes. Nigel resisted selling out to the Chinese for cents. I think he is trying to get the absolute best deal he possibly can.

If a $2+ offer is not coming, then it doesn't really benefit anyone to keep pushing for that figure and being angry when we don't get it. Everyone is aware that the alternative is going through arbitration and trying to recover assets over the next decade. We all know the challenges faced. A $1 to $1.30 is not a fair price for the project, but it beats arbitration for the next 10 years and recovering cents on the dollar.

Take a nap Jens.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I'll show this to my wife . It looks very satisfying.

 

[PhatCatz]

Fuck that. I’d rather we just go mining with Rio and CATH. That will return fair value for shareholders.

Fuck KoBold for trying to screw us over by leveraging off the DRC/USA minerals deal. Kobold go use your fancy AI and find the trillions in other commodities throughout the DRC. The minerals deals extends beyond Manono your fucking Septic tanks.

 

[M.Bison]

Fuck that. I’d rather we just go mining with Rio and CATH. That will return fair value for shareholders.

Fuck KoBold for trying to screw us over by leveraging off the DRC/USA minerals deal. Kobold go use your fancy AI and find the trillions in other commodities throughout the DRC. The minerals deals extends beyond Manono your fucking Septic tanks.

People are just massively jumping the gun here. Why fuck kobold? We don’t know what they’ve offered and they’ve put us back on the radar.
Nigel has indicated they are working with Kobold to come to a deal. If he’s hearing them out then we need to give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Mute22]

Fair take. The price I am talking about is not miles off ATH though.

You can see Jens' POV too though yea? He is around 60s. Probably just wants his money and to relax. I'm getting towards that point too. I think that is a reasonable position. People on here calling him a fkwit. He's just over it. Ready for a resolution.

I'm sure, yo-'He' is over it, like us all.