AVZ Discussion 2022

[Papst]

Just to preface this, I am keen for the most beneficial outcome possible, been waiting a very long time like all of you

But:
$1b investment appears to be to get the mine going so they can get the product to the west.

We were looking at circa $1b with investments from Cath and other parties to build the mine.


Yes, the leaked info from the last Kobold rumour there was a $1.5b takeover offer.

But this was the first offer and I am sure Nige has been working hard to get something better.


But I am still unable to fathom the people that think we are getting $2-$4 or beyond?

Our highest trade on ASX was like $1.31 or $1.35 intraday.
This had a ML being issued imminently priced in, and us proceeding to mine.

What has happened since then to increase the perceived value?
Asset hasn't improved, market hasn't improved, we haven't been able to progress anything.

I very much doubt we will get hurt money just because we have had to wait all these years.
But happy to be proven wrong.

Tim will tell.

In fact, drilling has been done to improve the metrics significantly.
Additionally, during that time it was always clear that shit could happens in this jurisdiction. Now with the icsid in our back, things a significantly less unexpectedly risky. Still shitty though...

 

[Shire]

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

View attachment 84065

Hey Carlos,

The statement from Kobold and AVZ mentioned they would “deploy more than $1B…”

It’s possible the $1.5B figure mentioned in The Australian refers to the total funds intended to be deployed in-country, aligning with that “more than $1B” comment. Just a thought.

Given how tightly the details have been held, I’m a bit sceptical that the actual purchase price leaked.

I also believe the purchase price was only a verbal offer at the time the article was written, and that we’ve since been waiting for Kobold’s best formal offer.

 

[Underwaterdark]

So the world's wealthiest are scrambling to secure AVZ believing it is only worth $1:35 aud?

They position it as they are doing everyone a favor, eg saving Avz, helping DRC.

But they know they will be getting a good deal.

Which is why it's happening now, and not 3-4 years ago.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Hey Carlos,

The statement from Kobold and AVZ mentioned they would “deploy more than $1B…”

It’s possible the $1.5B figure mentioned in The Australian refers to the total funds intended to be deployed in-country, aligning with that “more than $1B” comment. Just a thought.

Given how tightly the details have been held, I’m a bit sceptical that the actual purchase price leaked.

I also believe the purchase price was only a verbal offer at the time the article was written, and that we’ve since been waiting for Kobold’s best formal offer.

It specifically says the sell price

‘AVZ and KoBold representatives want to nail down a deal on the future of the southern portion of the Manono deposit from the talks starting on Tuesday. If all goes well, AVZ could on-sell the Manono interest for up to $US1.5bn ($2.38bn) plus a royalty. But there is no assurance of any outcome, favourable or otherwise.’

 

[Skar]

So the world's wealthiest are scrambling to secure AVZ believing it is only worth $1:35 aud?

Been thinking the illegal dis2olvement of the comminiere JVA, the president trying to seek a way out of the Manono problem, Kobold not wanting comminiere as part of the deal and the line compensating AVZ for lost stake.

What about if the way forward is for comminiere and zijin to keep the north in their 60/40 JVA and in exchange AVZ get some compensation & 100% of the south (669 MILLION TONES @ 1.65%), which as a raw unrefined material has a proven worth of more than 250B AUD (and multiples more unproven/undrilled given that was well over 30+ years of supply for us), they say 15% of global supply to come from Manono.

I think its been too long and shareholders have forgotten exactly what we have here. We have a company, with a development partner and a plan, we had all approvals in place, we were waiting on them to calculate the mining fee and get it rubber stamped for the license. If the DRC is to transition in the manner it seeks, we need to be given fair value. Anyone saying $1 or $2 (with 3.5B shares on issue, or ~7B as compared to the hundreds of billions in proven value.... yeah that is pennies on the dollar).

Obviously there is risk for the buyer but any sale needs to factor in future earnings. I am just thankful the opinions of anyone posting here dont really matter all that much and it will be settled by management.

 

[Azzler]

So I just saw some bullshit on the facebook AVZ page, and I almost responded but then I thought to myself, "I don't even need to be here anymore." and just fucking left the group.
My god that felt so good!

 

[Wingy]

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

View attachment 84065

When was the Australian ever right?

 

[Azzler]

Been thinking the illegal dis2olvement of the comminiere JVA, the president trying to seek a way out of the Manono problem, Kobold not wanting comminiere as part of the deal and the line compensating AVZ for lost stake.

What about if the way forward is for comminiere and zijin to keep the north in their 60/40 JVA and in exchange AVZ get some compensation & 100% of the south (669 MILLION TONES @ 1.65%), which as a raw unrefined material has a proven worth of more than 250B AUD (and multiples more unproven/undrilled given that was well over 30+ years of supply for us), they say 15% of global supply to come from Manono.

I think its been too long and shareholders have forgotten exactly what we have here. We have a company, with a development partner and a plan, we had all approvals in place, we were waiting on them to calculate the mining fee and get it rubber stamped for the license. If the DRC is to transition in the manner it seeks, we need to be given fair value. Anyone saying $1 or $2 (with 3.5B shares on issue, or ~7B as compared to the hundreds of billions in proven value.... yeah that is pennies on the dollar).

Obviously there is risk for the buyer but any sale needs to factor in future earnings. I am just thankful the opinions of anyone posting here dont really matter all that much and it will be settled by management.

Yes but as I've said before, something's value is purely based on what you can sell it for.

Management will get the most we can get for it.
We can't get it's true worth because of the revolting corrupt government, approvals mean nothing because the law means nothing.
The DRC have been forced/manipulated to allow us to dispose of the asset at some value, and you'd better thank the gods it was from a country who are friendly to Australia and insisted the asset was handed back to AVZ before the sale.

Because of the conditions of this we don't get to have bidders, because it can only go to the USA.

The only thing that matters is what we can get for it, that's it's only value.

 

[Jacob Kiraz]

When was the Australian ever right?

Sounds like we'll get a money back deal to get out, Am I right

 

[wombat74]

Just to preface this, I am keen for the most beneficial outcome possible, been waiting a very long time like all of you

But:
$1b investment appears to be to get the mine going so they can get the product to the west.

We were looking at circa $1b with investments from Cath and other parties to build the mine.


Yes, the leaked info from the last Kobold rumour there was a $1.5b takeover offer.

But this was the first offer and I am sure Nige has been working hard to get something better.


But I am still unable to fathom the people that think we are getting $2-$4 or beyond?

Our highest trade on ASX was like $1.31 or $1.35 intraday.
This had a ML being issued imminently priced in, and us proceeding to mine.

What has happened since then to increase the perceived value?
Asset hasn't improved, market hasn't improved, we haven't been able to progress anything.

I very much doubt we will get hurt money just because we have had to wait all these years.
But happy to be proven wrong.

Tim will tell.

"What has happened since then to increase the perceived value?"

Resource has doubled in size .

 

[PhatCatz]

got to remember that the AVZ share price was on an absolute tear with news that a ML was imminent before word started to get around about some forthcoming 'issues' which we later found out to be Zijin/DRC corruption.

I have no doubt in my mind that if ML was granted, the market sentiment at the time was extremely bullish for Lithium, and the sheer size of the deposit that AVZ share price would have went well beyond $3 in a short (say 3-6 month) time period.

I guess it's all speculation at the end of the day but using the ATH as to what AVZ is worth is disingenuous at best and everyone on this planet who know anything about Manono knows it's worth is much much higher than that.

I want the Chinese to lob a grenade into this with a counter offer once/if KoBold offer ever comes public. Surely Nigel the businessman won't be blacklisting their calls... it will be crazy not to entertain at least a discussion. His first priority is to generate the best return on investment for the 21 thousand AVZ shareholders. I get that politics will influence the final decision (whatever that may be), but politics shouldn't influence the journey there in terms of pricing!

Use everyone and everything you can for leverage Nigel!

 

[Skar]

Yes but as I've said before, something's value is purely based on what you can sell it for.

Management will get the most we can get for it.
We can't get it's true worth because of the revolting corrupt government, approvals mean nothing because the law means nothing.

Did you say that before or after the minerals for security deal? Before America visiting and insisting on transparent governance? ~6 months ago I was right there with you but the world has changed quite a bit.

The DRC have been forced/manipulated to allow us to dispose of the asset at some value, and you'd better thank the gods it was from a country who are friendly to Australia and insisted the asset was handed back to AVZ before the sale.

Because of the conditions of this we don't get to have bidders, because it can only go to the USA.

I think we massively undervalue our position in relation to the wave of investments that the US is trying to court, ours is the test case. Ours is the example that proves DRC (and Africa) is save for investment by western nations - if we are not made whole, then we keep going through legal avenues if nothing else Cath will fund. Thats the oppurtunity here, AVZ is one tenament in one country getting A LOT of attention. Thats the leverage, thats why we need to be made whole. Many TRILLIONS of dollars are at stake for the US, this is a massive geopolitical shift which is why I am holding out hope... otherwise we just become a cautionary tale.

 

[dollarbills]

There seems to be some conflicting messaging around whether this will be a full takeover of AVZ or a buyout of the stake in Manono. I'm assuming everyones preference is a full buyout for CGT purposes? If its just a buy out of the stake in Manono this complicates how we SH's get our money. Being a holder of LLL I have already been screwed by the Tranche 1 funds being a non franked dividend. Tranche 2 will probably be the same thing if they dont find a project.

I am hoping for a more favourable outcome here in terms of how this unfolds for a capital return point of view.

 

[Azzler]

So I am assuming you're implying that because of the US, we can rely on the DRC acting lawfully in the future in regards to abiding by decisions from the ICC and ISCID.
I strongly disagree, ISCID is leverage, but it's similar to threatening to detonate a body bomb.

I think the US only care about getting the minerals they want, and not transforming the DRC government into a transparent law abiding entity (I don't believe they could if they wanted to, that country is broken to the core, there is no fixing it).
Once they have the security for their own needs, they are done with their influence.

 

[BEISHA]

So I just saw some bullshit on the facebook AVZ page, and I almost responded but then I thought to myself, "I don't even need to be here anymore." and just fucking left the group.
My god that felt so good!

What was the BS ?

 

[Azzler]

What was the BS ?

Panic merchant posts.

 

[Skar]

ISCID is leverage, but it's similar to threatening to detonate a body bomb.

Exactly, before an explosion would cause no damage there was nothing to blow up so to speak, so no one really cared. Now the US are looking to build something quite pristine so they don't want it blowing up (which is the leverage).
"Look how lucrative it is investing in the DRC/Africa these investors just trippled their investment in a few years", under a new US-DRC more responsible, transparent government its safe for investment, minerals for security, the lobito corridor". Remember US want private investment flowing into the DRC. Its political now which means crazy valuations that otherwise would not make sense.

I think the US only care about getting the minerals they want, and not transforming the DRC government into a transparent law abiding entity (I don't believe they could if they wanted to, that country is broken to the core, there is no fixing it).
Once they have the security for their own needs, they are done with their influence.

I think the US have decades of practice at exuding influence and regime changes in all sorts of locales. I dont think the US would act benevolently for us at all but I do think our interests align. Look, its an oppurtunity is all I am saying, don't lose hope yet.

 

[Lichione]

View attachment 84094

CORRECTION:

Someone works in Macquarie told me there is NOT Jane Carter in their organization directory

 

[PhatCatz]

So I am assuming you're implying that because of the US, we can rely on the DRC acting lawfully in the future in regards to abiding by decisions from the ICC and ISCID.
I strongly disagree, ISCID is leverage, but it's similar to threatening to detonate a body bomb.

I think the US only care about getting the minerals they want, and not transforming the DRC government into a transparent law abiding entity (I don't believe they could if they wanted to, that country is broken to the core, there is no fixing it).
Once they have the security for their own needs, they are done with their influence.

I think in AVZs case, the DRC will need to be coerced into being law abiding citizens. If the ISCID goes ahead, AVZ retains its complete title and loss revenue compensation is enforced. There are reasons why no one wants AVZ to go through the courts as doing so will strengthen AVZ.

Do you think the USA will let Manono sit idle for years and years? No chance, especially with the security for minerals hanging over them. They’ll make sure DRC acts in good faith so they can exploit and bring low costs lithium to Western markets.

Also another point, just because DRC will be court ordered to pay compensation of 10b it doesn’t mean they have to pay it if AVZ/US come to an agreement with them. We will have a really strong hand to negotiate lets say ML and Zijin being forced to pay compensation (or royalties) to AVZ. If not we got old mates private military to take things into their own hands to compel those Chinese mutts.

Or the other option is Felix issues a presidential decree restoring the complete title to AVZ and granting a ML. Overnight all his problems go away and we can flog this off to the highest bidder on our terms and not being hamstrung by KoBold opportunistic grab… I heard the Saudis are sniffing hard and what’s to say majority of output can’t be conditional to be delivered to USA interests?

There are a fair few ways this can be carried es to ensure the USA still gets what it wants… and that’s lithium.

 

[Skar]

Or the other option is Felix issues a presidential decree restoring the complete title to AVZ and granting a ML. Overnight all his problems go away and we can flog this off to the highest bidder on our terms and not being hamstrung by KoBold opportunistic grab

If he could do this he would have, he faces the same problem Australia faces. Caught between China and US and not wanting to piss off either one too much.

We will have a really strong hand to negotiate lets say ML and Zijin being forced to pay compensation (or royalties) to AVZ. If not we got old mates private military to take things into their own hands to compel those Chinese mutts.

Its already clearly articulated any US involvement comes with it conditions of not wanting to piss off China (yet) and a quick pathway forward. Money = speed, so Kobolds solution is to compensate us directly for any lost stake as part of the sale.... its a TCO approach all factors considered, "this is what we are offering" and it will come with conditions the DRC need to fulfil, ML being one of them obviously. Also the US military assets will be mobilised to protect US interests not ours (if they differ). That only works for Kobold not AVZ, its the delay by legal action to resolve our rights where we could damage the sentiment of US investors and slow things down (which is why Kobold is offering compensation to us).... aligning interests is the only way to ensure a good deal and arrangement can be reached or it all turns to shit again, we can all do well in this arrangement. IMO.