AVZ Discussion 2022

[Skar]

ISCID is leverage, but it's similar to threatening to detonate a body bomb.

Exactly, before an explosion would cause no damage there was nothing to blow up so to speak, so no one really cared. Now the US are looking to build something quite pristine so they don't want it blowing up (which is the leverage).
"Look how lucrative it is investing in the DRC/Africa these investors just trippled their investment in a few years", under a new US-DRC more responsible, transparent government its safe for investment, minerals for security, the lobito corridor". Remember US want private investment flowing into the DRC. Its political now which means crazy valuations that otherwise would not make sense.

I think the US only care about getting the minerals they want, and not transforming the DRC government into a transparent law abiding entity (I don't believe they could if they wanted to, that country is broken to the core, there is no fixing it).
Once they have the security for their own needs, they are done with their influence.

I think the US have decades of practice at exuding influence and regime changes in all sorts of locales. I dont think the US would act benevolently for us at all but I do think our interests align. Look, its an oppurtunity is all I am saying, don't lose hope yet.

 

[Lichione]

View attachment 84094

CORRECTION:

Someone works in Macquarie told me there is NOT Jane Carter in their organization directory

 

[PhatCatz]

So I am assuming you're implying that because of the US, we can rely on the DRC acting lawfully in the future in regards to abiding by decisions from the ICC and ISCID.
I strongly disagree, ISCID is leverage, but it's similar to threatening to detonate a body bomb.

I think the US only care about getting the minerals they want, and not transforming the DRC government into a transparent law abiding entity (I don't believe they could if they wanted to, that country is broken to the core, there is no fixing it).
Once they have the security for their own needs, they are done with their influence.

I think in AVZs case, the DRC will need to be coerced into being law abiding citizens. If the ISCID goes ahead, AVZ retains its complete title and loss revenue compensation is enforced. There are reasons why no one wants AVZ to go through the courts as doing so will strengthen AVZ.

Do you think the USA will let Manono sit idle for years and years? No chance, especially with the security for minerals hanging over them. They’ll make sure DRC acts in good faith so they can exploit and bring low costs lithium to Western markets.

Also another point, just because DRC will be court ordered to pay compensation of 10b it doesn’t mean they have to pay it if AVZ/US come to an agreement with them. We will have a really strong hand to negotiate lets say ML and Zijin being forced to pay compensation (or royalties) to AVZ. If not we got old mates private military to take things into their own hands to compel those Chinese mutts.

Or the other option is Felix issues a presidential decree restoring the complete title to AVZ and granting a ML. Overnight all his problems go away and we can flog this off to the highest bidder on our terms and not being hamstrung by KoBold opportunistic grab… I heard the Saudis are sniffing hard and what’s to say majority of output can’t be conditional to be delivered to USA interests?

There are a fair few ways this can be carried es to ensure the USA still gets what it wants… and that’s lithium.

 

[Skar]

Or the other option is Felix issues a presidential decree restoring the complete title to AVZ and granting a ML. Overnight all his problems go away and we can flog this off to the highest bidder on our terms and not being hamstrung by KoBold opportunistic grab

If he could do this he would have, he faces the same problem Australia faces. Caught between China and US and not wanting to piss off either one too much.

We will have a really strong hand to negotiate lets say ML and Zijin being forced to pay compensation (or royalties) to AVZ. If not we got old mates private military to take things into their own hands to compel those Chinese mutts.

Its already clearly articulated any US involvement comes with it conditions of not wanting to piss off China (yet) and a quick pathway forward. Money = speed, so Kobolds solution is to compensate us directly for any lost stake as part of the sale.... its a TCO approach all factors considered, "this is what we are offering" and it will come with conditions the DRC need to fulfil, ML being one of them obviously. Also the US military assets will be mobilised to protect US interests not ours (if they differ). That only works for Kobold not AVZ, its the delay by legal action to resolve our rights where we could damage the sentiment of US investors and slow things down (which is why Kobold is offering compensation to us).... aligning interests is the only way to ensure a good deal and arrangement can be reached or it all turns to shit again, we can all do well in this arrangement. IMO.

 

[Carlos Danger]

When was the Australian ever right?

When they said AVZ will be selling to KoBold

Weird no one questioned their sources until they named the price lmao

 

[Dazmac66]

Can anyone explain to me how in any universe the US or AVZ can just simply bend AVZ over and by inserting a pineapple be given the the CDL mega-gold-mine. This does not compute in my brain- Here you go you thieving maggots, you can have the north! We don't want to upset Mr Jinping because he is such a nice bloke. Oh, and we need to protect Mr Kibeya and co from prosecution by the Chinese so you can have the power station as well.
How about go fuck yourself - I'll see you in Washington in three weeks for a civil chat about international mining law. Zijin - bring your cheque book and Mr Kibeya an overnight bag.
Kobold says Zijin can have the north - not me!
C#nts knew they were stealing the thing for a bunch of coconuts and a hand of bananas!

 

[Shire]

It specifically says the sell price

‘AVZ and KoBold representatives want to nail down a deal on the future of the southern portion of the Manono deposit from the talks starting on Tuesday. If all goes well, AVZ could on-sell the Manono interest for up to $US1.5bn ($2.38bn) plus a royalty. But there is no assurance of any outcome, favourable or otherwise.’

I guess I’m saying that Brad Thompson may have got the wrong end of the stick. I tried to contact him to clarify on LinkedIn but you need a premium subscription.

Does anybody have a LinkedIn subscription and is willing to ask Brad for a clarification?

 

[M.Bison]

Can anyone explain to me how in any universe the US or AVZ can just simply bend AVZ over and by inserting a pineapple be given the the CDL mega-gold-mine. This does not compute in my brain- Here you go you thieving maggots, you can have the north! We don't want to upset Mr Jinping because he is such a nice bloke. Oh, and we need to protect Mr Kibeya and co from prosecution by the Chinese so you can have the power station as well.
How about go fuck yourself - I'll see you in Washington in three weeks for a civil chat about international mining law. Zijin - bring your cheque book and Mr Kibeya an overnight bag.
Kobold says Zijin can have the north - not me!
C#nts knew they were stealing the thing for a bunch of coconuts and a hand of bananas!

Equally frustrated, but do you want money or an eternal battle for justice? 1 in the hands worth 2 in the bush. There is a significant opportunity cost that we have all been paying.

 

[Skar]

Can anyone explain to me how in any universe the US or AVZ can just simply bend AVZ over and by inserting a pineapple be given the the CDL mega-gold-mine. This does not compute in my brain- Here you go you thieving maggots, you can have the north! We don't want to upset Mr Jinping because he is such a nice bloke.

Because we live in an imperfect world and we are all just doing the best we can. Sorry if mummy and daddy or Disney fed you lies about the world being fair. Its not because Jinping is a nice bloke, its because he has influence and can project power which can get in the way of making money... which is why I invested. I want to take the path that leads me to the best return on my investment... so long as there is nothing illegal and no one gets hurt.

How about go fuck yourself - I'll see you in Washington in three weeks for a civil chat about international mining law. Zijin - bring your cheque book and Mt Kibeya an overnight bag.

For me this is return on investment consideration, going with Kobolds proposal needs to be high enough to incentivise not taking the course of action. Otherwise yeah proceed as planned (and thats what management are doing, temporary pause to facilitate a deal with kobold/avz/drc). All our interests have to align and a settlement where we all get what we want is a better outcome.

Kobold says Zijin can have the north - not me!
C#nts knew they were stealing the thing for a bunch of coconuts and a hand of bananas!

I say they can have it for a price. If kobold will pay that price, what do I care? I want my ROI. If Kobold wont pay it, on with the legal recourse.

 

[Azzler]

Very good points are being made and worthy of serious consideration.

I will say though that I trust AVZ Management and DLA Piper to be across all of this and be in the best possible position to make the best decision for Shareholder value.
There's never been even the slightest notion that they have acted against the interests of shareholders, and I believe anyone who rallies against whatever they eventually agree upon, is not a friend to us, or is foolish.

A framework for Kobald to acquire Manono has already been agreed upon by AVZ, and they would not have made this agreement if Kobald had not given a "ball park" $$$ figure that AVZ found to be acceptable. They signed that ISCID is to be suspended for now, so why are you campaigning against their decision?

In my mind the deal is already struck, unless another rug is about to be pulled from under us, but you'd think Nigel would have learned to make deals in stone floored rooms by now

If however, AVZ tell us our best course lies in persuing ISCID with CATH or otherwise, then I will 100% be behind them (with my head hung low)

 

[Goldenboy]

Panic merchant posts.

There are some absolute morons on the FB group.

 

[Skar]

absolute morons on the FB group.

Are they offloading shares cheap?

 

[Winenut]

Are they offloading shares cheap?

Yeah $2......

 

[Goldenboy]

Are they offloading shares cheap?

Some bloke on FB recons we will get .50c ….. I said I will buy all his shares for .50c today.
Not a peep from him since.

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

It's Friday let's have some music, this particular track shares my current sentiment on this shit fuckery...



And this Simpsons meme I made I feel is pretty sharp.

 

[Winenut]

It's Friday let's have some music, this particular track shares my current sentiment on this shit fuckery...



And this Simpsons meme I made I feel is pretty sharp.

View attachment 84100

C'mon Qball

You know what you have to do

 

[Spikerama]

Apparently there's loads of Non Binary folk heading off prospecting this weekend.

They've heard that there's gold in them/their hills.

 

[wombat74]

We can all speculate until the cows come home , but by looks of Nigel's signature on that Kobold document , I'd say the decision has already been made (including $$$) . Felix also being in the loop . Now we wait for some due process before they drop the details on us and this sh1t show finally comes to an end . IMO

 

[Skar]

I would say the broad strokes certainly have been agreed to, with the framework being in place now the detailed negotiations can begin... there are enough complexities, schedules and milestones, break clauses etc its not a done deal till money hits my bank account.... as we all know escrow is not enough .

Kobolds been at this since January, is there a confidentiality agreement in place (which is why no word from AVZ yet)?

 

[Retrobyte]

CORRECTION:

Someone works in Macquarie told me there is NOT Jane Carter in their organization directory

That's exactly what my screenshot said. Not sure why you're wanting to correct me.