AVZ Discussion 2022

[Dave Evans]

You and I have both criticised KoBold, while I think many others see them as white knights.
I've nothing to add to your excellent analysis, but would just comment that all of the US remarks around security for minerals reminds of Zelensky in the Oval Office being insulted and threatened on precisely that opaque ' deal '.
There, no mention was made about any holders of exploration or mining permits and their rights.
It was a given that USA would just take what they could bully Ukraine into conceding.

The only difference here is that FT does not have the balls or desire of VZ to fight for a just outcome.
AVZ holders need to stop deluding themselves that any alleged ' suitor ' will willingly pay top dollar for control. That is not generally how business works.
If it does happen, it will be on the eve of ICSID at the very earliest and will be based on geopolitics.
It is also possibly in KoBold's interest that we lose.
Be aware that when you're reposting X, instagram etc comments around KoBold and US government actions. you are validating US interests.
These nterests are not necessarily AVZ interests.
NF and BoD will be very well aware of all of this and will be attempting to play these alleged suitors off against each other.
In my mind, the issue is how much US and China are prepared to compromise with each other and each take part of Manono?
FT would probably be happy with such an outcome.
Be sure that neither side is interested in right or fair compensation for AVZ, despite the corporate bs. Does anyone seriously think that they want to give AVZ a single cent more than they need to?

I suspect that Trump wants it all ( for a ' win ' ).
If that is the case, to continue the Zelensky analogy, AVZ probably holds better cards.
Whatever is in the works, there's very little chance of ICSID and other court cases not running for months or, possibly, years.
Manono is simply too large for both US or China to be happy with less than 100%.

I know there are plenty of shareholders who don’t like the “hopeful” attitude, but in saying that, my never say die attitude leans toward the project being in too high a demand to let it drag out for any more years in arbitration. CATH are so desperate for our lithium they gave us US$20million to proceed with the litigation and we know the US also want it.

Anyway I hope all shareholders keep fighting on and hope this might inspire AVZ shareholders to keep fighting. Though I wasn’t there, a few people from my high school that I know were there, including the big bloke they try and throw in the paddy wagon so hope you and others can find some relevance in it



Also, as far as KoBold, they already have a JV with BHP and could partner with RIO who are the most experienced miners in the world, so no reason not to other than to get their own investor mates in on the action.

Now stop fucken replying, I stopped posting for a reason and I don’t need more reasons to start again (PS, Sorry mate, not personal, just sick of being on forums)

 

[JNRB]

Some people have expressed concern about Kobold negotiating directly with DRC and Nigel/AVZ being left out; the worry being they are trying to bypass AVZ to get a better deal.

IMO:
1. If AVZ is not in the discussion, it's not because Kobols are trying to reduce the compensation price, rather it's that compensating AVZ is not one of their unknowns still needing to be resolved. They know they can make AVZ a suitable compensation offer. The main concern for them now is ensuring the DRC gives them the conditions to make that offer worth it.

2. Further to above, Kobold wants good conditions for investments beyond just Manono. Manono may end up being their first and biggest but still only part. So from that perspective why would AVZ be part of those negotiations.

3. We don't actually know what meetings AVZ is/isn't a part of atm. We DO know AVZ has been in the US to discuss project progression.

 

[Randenj]

For something more light-hearted (?) I was sent this via LinkedIn.

Screenshot below ......

 

[wombat74]

You and I have both criticised KoBold, while I think many others see them as white knights.
I've nothing to add to your excellent analysis, but would just comment that all of the US remarks around security for minerals reminds of Zelensky in the Oval Office being insulted and threatened on precisely that opaque ' deal '.
There, no mention was made about any holders of exploration or mining permits and their rights.
It was a given that USA would just take what they could bully Ukraine into conceding.

The only difference here is that FT does not have the balls or desire of VZ to fight for a just outcome.
AVZ holders need to stop deluding themselves that any alleged ' suitor ' will willingly pay top dollar for control. That is not generally how business works.
If it does happen, it will be on the eve of ICSID at the very earliest and will be based on geopolitics.
It is also possibly in KoBold's interest that we lose.
Be aware that when you're reposting X, instagram etc comments around KoBold and US government actions. you are validating US interests.
These nterests are not necessarily AVZ interests.
NF and BoD will be very well aware of all of this and will be attempting to play these alleged suitors off against each other.
In my mind, the issue is how much US and China are prepared to compromise with each other and each take part of Manono?
FT would probably be happy with such an outcome.
Be sure that neither side is interested in right or fair compensation for AVZ, despite the corporate bs. Does anyone seriously think that they want to give AVZ a single cent more than they need to?

I suspect that Trump wants it all ( for a ' win ' ).
If that is the case, to continue the Zelensky analogy, AVZ probably holds better cards.
Whatever is in the works, there's very little chance of ICSID and other court cases not running for months or, possibly, years.
Manono is simply too large for both US or China to be happy with less than 100%.

In who's interest's is it to let the ICISD case run ? Up to this point the DRC have done everything they can to avoid it . Corruption on a grand scale will be exposed .Corrupt players exposed . Zijin exposed . Potential buyers will have to pony $$ up more than they could have . Years of wasted time . In who's interest is it to let the ICSID case run ?

 

[GuruDukun]

Kobold Metals: who is Benjamin Katabuka, the new CEO in the DRC? - Africa Business+

The mining company, supported by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, has appointed a pilot for its operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), indicating interest in Manono’s lithium and other critical metals projects in the region.

www.africabusinessplus.com

Someone has got to have a subscription

 

[Winenut]

In who's interest's is it to let the ICISD case run ? Up to this point the DRC have done everything they can to avoid it . Corruption on a grand scale will be exposed .Corrupt players exposed . Zijin exposed . Potential buyers will have to pony $$ up more than they could have . Years of wasted time . In who's interest is it to let the ICSID case run ?

Ours...

It's currently one of our most powerful assets and singularly the greatest insurance policy we have against getting completely fucking ripped off

 

[BRICK]

Ours...

It's currently one of our most powerful assets and singularly the greatest insurance policy we have against getting completely fucking ripped off

Amen

 

[Panther22]

Ours...

It's currently one of our most powerful assets and singularly the greatest insurance policy we have against getting completely fucking ripped off

Agree. As much as we all want out of this shitshow with a suitable cheque l would hate to think we get under compensated and all the bad actors walk away scott free and the fines disappear. I am counting the days to ICSID so that all the dirt and corruption is brought before the world and some heads roll. That way a more true value for Monano will be on hand and those that want it will have to get much closer to the true value if they want own it and take away some of the Chinese domination.
When the true value comes out at ICSID they, whoever they are, will have to pay much closer to true value.
Who ever ends up with Monano is on a winner, a gold mine (Lithium actually and don't forget the tin). Lithium prices will rise as demand increases.

Love Spikes countdown clock, look forward to seeing it each morning.

GLTAH.

 

[Spikerama]

Thirty Three, till the Third Degree.

 

[wombat74]

Ours...

It's currently one of our most powerful assets and singularly the greatest insurance policy we have against getting completely fucking ripped off

Exactly . So why would they let the ICISD run ?

 

[Winenut]

Exactly . So why would they let the ICISD run ?

Well

There's only one way to stop it for every other party that has an interest (or is interested) in Manono and that is to.....

 

[Rechnerhand]

Declaration of Principles By U.S. Embassy Kinshasa

" ...
The Participants expect this framework to be accompanied by the launch or expansion of significant investments, including those facilitated by the S. government and U.S. private sector, aimed at transforming the regional economy to the benefit of all participating countries.
The Participants commit to explore options to link this framework to other international or regional economic development initiatives, including in infrastructure
The Participants commit to launch and/or expand cooperation on shared priorities such as hydropower development; national park management; derisking of mineral supply chains; and transparent, formalized, and licit end-to-end mineral value chains (from mine to processed metal) that link both countries, in partnership with the S. government and U.S. investors.
..."

 

[Mute22]

Declaration of Principles By U.S. Embassy Kinshasa

" ...
The Participants expect this framework to be accompanied by the launch or expansion of significant investments, including those facilitated by the S. government and U.S. private sector, aimed at transforming the regional economy to the benefit of all participating countries.
The Participants commit to explore options to link this framework to other international or regional economic development initiatives, including in infrastructure
The Participants commit to launch and/or expand cooperation on shared priorities such as hydropower development; national park management; derisking of mineral supply chains; and transparent, formalized, and licit end-to-end mineral value chains (from mine to processed metal) that link both countries, in partnership with the S. government and U.S. investors.
..."

hydropower development hydropower development hydropower development

 

[Frank]

If you go down to the Crapper today, Your sure of a big surprise
If you go down to the Crapper today, You better go in disguise
For every Bear that ever there was, Will gather there for certain because
Today's the day the Teddy Bear's have their picnic
Every Teddy Bear whose been good
Is sure of a treat today

 

[Hudnut]

Tshisekedi will be worried about more the the exposure of Cominiere and Dathomir re: denying AVZ the mining license.
IMO he will be exposed himself. He either benefited directly, or is protecting others he has benefited from in others lest they expose him.
His inaction during this whole thing speaks for itself.

Re: KoBold. They will absolutely do what they can, to get as much as they can, whlie payiing as little as they can.
We've been told they've already put in an offer. If that's true and we haven't heard about it, then it's a lowball.

They did gain access to our cores while consorting with the enemy, and are certainly not a friend.

ICSID may be in our favour re: setting a value if we eventually win. However, we will still have difficulties collecting any award, and other companies have had to settle for less than the award to actually get any cash.

Difficulties in collecting any award means we aren't guaranteed KoBold or anyone else will offer us that much.

Any amount offered will be weighed against risk of winning at ICSID, time in the courts, and difficulty of collection.

Not to mention the geopolitical risk associated with changes in Governments at either end in the meantime if this drags out. If anything happens to Trump or Tshidekedi electorally or healthwise in the meantime everything could change.

 

[Rechnerhand]

Tshisekedi will be worried about more the the exposure of Cominiere and Dathomir re: denying AVZ the mining license.
IMO he will be exposed himself. He either benefited directly, or is protecting others he has benefited from in others lest they expose him.
His inaction during this whole thing speaks for itself.

Re: KoBold. They will absolutely do what they can, to get as much as they can, whlie payiing as little as they can.
We've been told they've already put in an offer. If that's true and we haven't heard about it, then it's a lowball.

They did gain access to our cores while consorting with the enemy, and are certainly not a friend.

ICSID may be in our favour re: setting a value if we eventually win. However, we will still have difficulties collecting any award, and other companies have had to settle for less than the award to actually get any cash.

Difficulties in collecting any award means we aren't guaranteed KoBold or anyone else will offer us that much.

Any amount offered will be weighed against risk of winning at ICSID, time in the courts, and difficulty of collection.

Not to mention the geopolitical risk associated with changes in Governments at either end in the meantime if this drags out. If anything happens to Trump or Tshidekedi electorally or healthwise in the meantime everything could change.

An offer via Kobold Metals directly to AVZ I think is not on the agenda these days for at least one reason.
--> ongoing court cases (ICC, ICSID) where the official outcome related to a binding ML is pending.

This remains the question who was the receiver of a so called offer by Kobold Metals or is in exchange with them?
Based on the fact above and an absolutely unstable situation for foreign investors I would say the only logical communication partner at the moment is the political channel via U.S. governments and it is not an offer we would expect to see from an investor POV in public sector. With the situation above as a fact I would not agree to this point of mentioning this as a lowball ... not even this. My thinking is that Kobold made a kind of offer (MOU) to underline the credibility of the "declaration of principles". (Never underestimate Trump's ability to celebrate shows more then the business itself.) So far there is not achieved something countable and that is why I totally agree not to comment from AVZ side now any things happened at political stage w/o any substantial news for everything I've been invested there since 2017. And yes - their major asset is let run the ICSID case.

 

[Flekman11]

Ours...

It's currently one of our most powerful assets and singularly the greatest insurance policy we have against getting completely fucking ripped off

Bang on.

The most important fact being a US company or other actual companies from ‘genuine’ signatories to the convention need to adhere to any findings and award from ICSID.

That would have to be included in any TO with regard to AVZ.

Nobody who is potentially in discussions now wants that happening.

 

[CashKing]

Amen

View attachment 83356

A few more of them and you’ll be buying from the Furniture Gallery

Anyone else got that ad every fucking post ?

I mean it’s nice and all but just can’t afford it yet

If only there was a way to
Unlock heaps of cash

 

[Samus]

Tshisekedi will be worried about more the the exposure of Cominiere and Dathomir re: denying AVZ the mining license.
IMO he will be exposed himself. He either benefited directly, or is protecting others he has benefited from in others lest they expose him.
His inaction during this whole thing speaks for itself.

Re: KoBold. They will absolutely do what they can, to get as much as they can, whlie payiing as little as they can.
We've been told they've already put in an offer. If that's true and we haven't heard about it, then it's a lowball.

They did gain access to our cores while consorting with the enemy, and are certainly not a friend.

ICSID may be in our favour re: setting a value if we eventually win. However, we will still have difficulties collecting any award, and other companies have had to settle for less than the award to actually get any cash.

Difficulties in collecting any award means we aren't guaranteed KoBold or anyone else will offer us that much.

Any amount offered will be weighed against risk of winning at ICSID, time in the courts, and difficulty of collection.

Not to mention the geopolitical risk associated with changes in Governments at either end in the meantime if this drags out. If anything happens to Trump or Tshidekedi electorally or healthwise in the meantime everything could change.

 

[TheCount]

A few more of them and you’ll be buying from the Furniture Gallery

Anyone else got that ad every fucking post ?

I mean it’s nice and all but just can’t afford it yet

If only there was a way to
Unlock heaps of cash

When we win I'll make you a case of home-made hard lemon squash mate..
Cheers.