BRICK
Zeebot Located
Steal it first then calculate later
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Mute22
Regular
I'm sure they know, but don't want to put a public number out there for obvious reasons.
Re: Will CATH (CATL) make a play for Roche Dure?
CATL owns and operates a lithium (lepidolite) mine in Jiangxi province, China. Lepidolite, as we know, is a low-grade lithium ore that requires additional processing to remove impurities and bring it up to battery grade carbonate. Processing is expensive and environmentally challenging.
It is Chinese government policy to utilise domestic lepidolite ahead of imported hydroxide or carbonate in order to put pressure on the price of imported concentrate. Nonetheless, CATL still imports concentrate from a range of international mines to address the domestic shortfall.
In addition, Zijin Mining recently purchased a 70% stake in the high-grade Lakkor Tso Lithium Project in Tibet. Presumably CATL will use at least some of this concentrate as feedstock for its battery manufacturing facilities in Sichuan and beyond.
It makes sense that CATL is interested in Manono for economic and supply security reasons. However Chinese energy policy counters this, which potentially puts CATL and Chinese policy makers in a conflicting position.
I do not have the answer to this apparent contradictory position, and I do not know if CATH (or CATL) will make a pitch for Roche Dure. However, even without taking US-China geo-politics into account, the expected up-swing in demand for lithium over the next five years may ultimately force their hand.
Three potential bidders is always better than two any day.
Just thinking out aloud (again).
Cheers
F
CATL owns and operates a lithium (lepidolite) mine in Jiangxi province, China. Lepidolite, as we know, is a low-grade lithium ore that requires additional processing to remove impurities and bring it up to battery grade carbonate. Processing is expensive and environmentally challenging.
It is Chinese government policy to utilise domestic lepidolite ahead of imported hydroxide or carbonate in order to put pressure on the price of imported concentrate. Nonetheless, CATL still imports concentrate from a range of international mines to address the domestic shortfall.
In addition, Zijin Mining recently purchased a 70% stake in the high-grade Lakkor Tso Lithium Project in Tibet. Presumably CATL will use at least some of this concentrate as feedstock for its battery manufacturing facilities in Sichuan and beyond.
It makes sense that CATL is interested in Manono for economic and supply security reasons. However Chinese energy policy counters this, which potentially puts CATL and Chinese policy makers in a conflicting position.
I do not have the answer to this apparent contradictory position, and I do not know if CATH (or CATL) will make a pitch for Roche Dure. However, even without taking US-China geo-politics into account, the expected up-swing in demand for lithium over the next five years may ultimately force their hand.
Three potential bidders is always better than two any day.
Just thinking out aloud (again).
Cheers
F
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7-8 tonnes of SC6 per tonne of LCE
6.47 million tonnes x 8 = 51.47 million tonnes @ 1.5%
Doesn't seem like a massive deposit, but they are quoting ultra large scale?
Seems like number fudging to me or i am wrong
Winenut
GO AVZ!!!!
What....Zijin fudge?????
Naahhh......
I'm searching the explanatory notes to the annual report for the amount in bribes paid to DRC kleptocrats. No luck to date, but I'll keep looking.
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Frank
Top 20
Ditto - TGO
My repetitive posting seems boring but necessary also tbo
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Frank
Top 20
Rio Tinto Enters Negotiations with Congo for Strategic Lithium Deposit
*Edit - To add,
*Edit - To add,
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Dave Evans
Regular
As noted in Jens X post, Jakob Stausholm is the CEO at Rio Tinto headquarters in London who are interested in developing Roche Dure.
This is the latest post from Benchmark Minerals this week. It seems the more articles you read, the more desperate the US and Europe are to acquire sources of battery metals
The EU is set to miss its 2030 battery mineral targets, except for lithium and nickel mining, under the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). To boost domestic supply, Brussels approved 47 strategic projects, with 31 focused on battery minerals across extraction, processing, and recycling. These projects will benefit from streamlined permitting and €22.5 billion in funding. While aiding lithium and nickel goals, gaps remain for other minerals.
Benchmark analysis shows the US will fall short of its critical mineral needs by 2030, particularly in cobalt, nickel, and graphite, despite announced projects. Trump's recent Executive Order aims to accelerate permitting and investments, but the supply pipeline remains insufficient.
While Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Law supported the battery supply chain, Trump’s policies focus more on upstream production. The Executive Order invokes the Defense Production Act to fund domestic projects. However, permitting reforms alone won’t resolve supply shortages, as US mineral deficits persist even if all planned projects materialize. Additional investment and diversification remain essential for supply security.
The global commodities sector is shifting due to energy transition demand, geopolitical tensions, and a shifting manufacturing landscape, Benchmark’s Chairman, Simon Moores told members of the UK House of Lords this week. Moores emphasised that critical minerals like lithium and copper are central to global diplomacy, urging the UK to meet rising battery demand through collaboration and common unity.
Also on Benchmark Source:
This is the latest post from Benchmark Minerals this week. It seems the more articles you read, the more desperate the US and Europe are to acquire sources of battery metals
While Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Law supported the battery supply chain, Trump’s policies focus more on upstream production. The Executive Order invokes the Defense Production Act to fund domestic projects. However, permitting reforms alone won’t resolve supply shortages, as US mineral deficits persist even if all planned projects materialize. Additional investment and diversification remain essential for supply security.
Also on Benchmark Source:
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Frank
Top 20
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I guess it’s good that these big western companies are sniffing around DRC but I can’t shake the feeling they are trying to back door their way into Manono. I wonder how involved Nigel and Co. are in any of these discussions if at all?
This is why the court cases are crucial. Wonder if CATH sniffed these latest developments out and in the reason they ponied up? It still keeps them in the game for a purchase of AVZ if there were western/DRC discussions in the background? If AVZ went insolvent or couldn’t fight the good chase I wonder if kobold made their move to acquire the tenement for nothing for “defence” via the USA.
This is why the court cases are crucial. Wonder if CATH sniffed these latest developments out and in the reason they ponied up? It still keeps them in the game for a purchase of AVZ if there were western/DRC discussions in the background? If AVZ went insolvent or couldn’t fight the good chase I wonder if kobold made their move to acquire the tenement for nothing for “defence” via the USA.
cruiser51
Top 20
Didn't Cominière get pinged by the ICC for talking too much?
Fools!
I wonder how ckk is sleeping, escaping to a condo in the west is not an option unless he gets a new face and haircut.
Maybe a cosy place in Kigali, nobody expects him to pop up there.
cruiser51
Top 20
I would say CATH (CATL) is not silly and more aware about what is going on than we are.
We only have to look how CATH swung into action (against state owned Zijin) to try to gain access to high quality SC6 from RD.
When will we find out what is going on behind the scene?
Probably when the AVZ BoD gets the advice to pull the trigger.
They highly likely are getting advice (not only from CATH, but also from their legal advisors).
They would not want to piss the ICSID off, something were the DRC has shown to be masters of.
(Only have to look at the reaction from ICC towards Cominière).
The DRC might want to try to throw a spanner in the gearbox again.
They did show their cards before by not paying court fees.
cruiser51
Top 20
Probably walked into a fist.
Vert interesting to learn about the internal market dynamics for lithium in China.
But as far as CATH is concerned I'm not sure that's gonna factor in for them? They have already made it clear they want the output, whether through offtake or otherwise. Could be that for them the restrictions in China are less a consideration because 1. well they just need so damn much, but 2. CATH looking to expand production to new plants outside of China so maybe not subject to those same restrictions?
The thing I've been speculating about lately with re to CATH is about how they'll counter the growing American interest. I fully expect them to make an offer,
..but thinking about it more it occurs to me that the possibility of this course of events has long ago occurred to CATH, and I would assume they would ALREADY have considered what the project would be worth to them if they were to try and buy it outright. So IMO CATH maybe surprised by this action maybe not, but already sitting on contingency plans.
There's been some speculation that offers to take over the project could be part cash part scrip (new term to me, hope I'm using it right?), I wonder if CATH comes in and makes a better offer to AVZ along similar structure to our current deal, but on terms that value the project properly not at the 'we're bailing you out' discount rate, and including throwing in a stake in the processing plant.
I know a lot of holders (me included) would be happy to just take a big payout and get as far from this clusterfuk as possible, but if CATH counterd an upfront cash takeover from US with a cash takeover AND ownership stake that allows significantly more long-term value on earnings from processesing, that would definitely give the board interesting choices.
But then again, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, or in DRC, 3 in the paper bag...
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