AVZ Discussion 2022

[Frank]

https://x.com/AshleeLaur39941/status/1903417129812349122

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/EquitiesClub/status/1903238622402527662

 

[PhatCatz]

Just out of curiosity I asked Grok, it reckons $7.17Billion AUD is what we should be awarded, Im sure it's missed a few things, someone might want to fine tune the question. Interestingly, but not all that surprisingly, in a seperate question I asked, Grok thinks we'll get more if we go through the courts for damages as oppossed to just accepting a takeover. Anywho, Bring it on, somewhere in the middle of $4.5-9.5bill(AVZ's figure) USD would be nice
View attachment 79962

I prefer ChatGPT LOL

Total Compensation Estimate​

Finally, combining both the value of AVZ's 75% share and the potential lost revenue, the fair compensation figure would be:

88,125,000,000 USD+30,843,750,000 USD=118,968,750,000 USD88,125,000,000 \, \text{USD} + 30,843,750,000 \, \text{USD} = 118,968,750,000 \, \text{USD}88,125,000,000USD+30,843,750,000USD=118,968,750,000USD

Final Estimated Compensation:​

Approximately $119 billion USD.

 

[JNRB]

Thanks M8

By the way, I look around the room and I see a lot of people quoting numbers. Yesterday we had $1.00 then $2.00. Some say it's $12 or go home. And now we have $3.50 being floated.

My personal opinion is that we shouldn't be quoting numbers. Just let the BOD get the best deal for us because they know the full story. Nige knows his geo, and I reckon he knows a few little secrets too but I would urge against settling on a dollar figure because how do we know what those who are vying for it are quoting? Say it's $5 dollars but shareholder consensus has already settled on $3.50. Or Say they are offering $14 but we've all said $12. We just don't know what is being thrown around and what little sweeteners or hard ball games are being chucked into the mix

I get it, it's fun to speculate but even quoting what we think is a highball figure, we could be low balling ourselves.

I reckon just leave it to the pros and don't show our collective hand in the meantime.

In Nige we trust 🫡

 

[JNRB]

Here are my thoughts on the takeover offer by Kobold. As a long-term shareholder since December 2016, I've experienced the ups and downs alongside the company—riding the high to 36c, watching it drop to 4c, and then seeing it rise again to 1.36c. Throughout all these fluctuations, we’ve remained steadfast in our belief in the potential of renewable energy and its ability to help shape a better future for the world.

That said, I cannot accept anything less than $3.50 per share in this deal. I also question why Kobold would be willing to give away control of the north. To my understanding, the situation is still pending with both ICC and ICDIS. As far as I’m concerned, the north is not theirs to offer, as it hasn’t been fully settled yet. If Zijin intends to retain control over the north, they must pay a fair and equitable price for it—nothing less. The value of these assets should be fully recognised, and we, as shareholders, deserve fair compensation in exchange for giving up our stake.

We find ourselves in an incredibly strong position, with only 70 days remaining until the ICDIS. This is a critical point in time, especially given the strategic nature of the mineral resources we control. Given the high demand for such minerals, and the central role they will play in the future of renewable energy, it’s perplexing and concerning to see any move toward undervaluing these assets.

With the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) positioning itself to attract more Western investment, it seems counterproductive—if not outright misguided—that we would be considering selling ourselves cheaply. The global shift toward renewable energy is accelerating, and the minerals we possess are crucial to this transformation. Why, then, would we let such a valuable resource sit idle or be handed away at a bargain price?

Nigel, as the decision-maker, is sitting with a winning hand of cards. Our position is strong, and our resource is of the highest quality. The strategic importance of this mineral to the future of renewable energy cannot be overstated. The world’s increasing demand for these minerals, combined with the DRC’s focus on attracting Western investors, puts us in a position of power. We have the leverage to negotiate a deal that reflects the true value of these assets.

If anything, we are where we are today precisely because of the exceptional quality of our resource, and it’s this value that should guide any discussions about its future. Selling ourselves short now would be a missed opportunity, one that could have far-reaching consequences for shareholders, for the company, and for the role we can play in driving the renewable energy revolution. We must stand firm and demand a fair price that reflects both the strategic importance of what we hold and the substantial value that is yet to be realised.

From what I’ve gathered, Kobold is moving quickly in response to recent news coverage from outlets like Australian Financial Review and Bloomberg. The buzz around our strategic position, combined with the potential for these minerals in the renewable energy sector, is clearly catching attention. Kobold’s urgency reflects the value of what we hold, but it’s important to remember that we should not be selling ourselves short in the process.

As I’ve said before, we shouldn’t accept anything less than $3.50 per share. This is not a time to settle for less, especially when our resource is so critical to the future of renewable energy. We are in a prime position, with major players like Kobold showing interest, and we must ensure that the price we accept reflects the true worth of our company and its assets. We’ve endured the highs and lows of the market, and now is the time for us to capitalise on the long-term potential of our investment. Anything less than $3.50 per share would be an undervaluation of what we have built and the opportunities that lie ahead.

It’s also important to recognise the emotional toll this journey has taken on many shareholders. Many of us have suffered significant mental and emotional strain, and even relationship challenges, due to the uncertainty and volatility of our investments. However, we have carried on because we truly believed that, in the end, there would be justice—that our patience and dedication would be rewarded.

If Zijin manages to acquire the north without paying a fair price for it, then it would be a clear violation of that sense of justice. It would send a message that shareholders, who have endured so much over the years, are not valued or respected. For those of us who have stuck with this company through thick and thin, this is not just about financial compensation—it’s about fairness. If we allow Zijin to take control of such a valuable asset without proper payment, it undermines the very principles of equity and fairness that we believed would guide this process. $3.5 and nothing less!

Anyone who believes we should accept the current offer or risk walking away with $0 is kidding themselves. The situation is far more complex, and there’s too much at stake. The DRC cannot afford to let this resource sit idle—it’s far too valuable. No reputable company would consider investing in this resource without the proper fines being paid and the outstanding issues with ICC and ICDIS being resolved first.

The DRC’s ability to attract Western investment hinges on addressing these concerns, and no serious player would move forward without that clarity and resolution. We are in a strong position, and it's crucial that we demand a fair price. The risks of accepting a lowball offer far outweigh any potential short-term gain, and we cannot afford to let this opportunity slip away for anything less than its true worth. This is the moment for us to secure a fair deal that reflects the strategic value of our holdings and the long-term potential they offer.

Great post.

" I also question why Kobold would be willing to give away control of the north."

This bit I will speculatively answer.

Kobold currently has ZERO stake in Manono. Not even a tenuous dodgy bit held up by paper bags.
If the choice for them is:

1. Continue AVZ's fight for WHOLE tenement,
2. Close the dispute in the easiest way possible that allows them to still get an enormous stake in an enormous deposit,

Then it's easy to see why they would go for 2. That's also why they talk about it with phrases like "appropriate compensation" rather than buyout price.

Yes Zijin win big from this - Kobold would effectively be paying us off to end the dispute. But hey, if that's what they want to do, and they still get what they want out of it, that's good for them and good for us. As much as i want Zijin to rot in hell Im not gonna let that get in the way of being payed out appropriately for this saga.

So essentially Kobold is paying:
1. A takeover price for all of AVZ's interests in the South,
PLUS
2. Appropriate compensation for AVZ to close all current disputes so that the project can continue unimpeded.

(As far as I'm concerned all the valuations that have been thrown around pertain ONLY to 1, so whatever your number is, add something for 2.)

If their choice is that, or nothing, then that's why they're willing to pay and compromise.

But remember folks, those are KOBOLD's options, not OUR options. We are finally in a good position with this.

 

[Winenut]

Thanks M8

By the way, I look around the room and I see a lot of people quoting numbers. Yesterday we had $1.00 then $2.00. Some say it's $12 or go home. And now we have $3.50 being floated.

My personal opinion is that we shouldn't be quoting numbers. Just let the BOD get the best deal for us because they know the full story. Nige knows his geo, and I reckon he knows a few little secrets too but I would urge against settling on a dollar figure because how do we know what those who are vying for it are quoting? Say it's $5 dollars but shareholder consensus has already settled on $3.50. Or Say they are offering $14 but we've all said $12. We just don't know what is being thrown around and what little sweeteners or hard ball games are being chucked into the mix

I get it, it's fun to speculate but even quoting what we think is a highball figure, we could be low balling ourselves.

I reckon just leave it to the pros and don't show our collective hand in the meantime.

100% correct there Spike!!!!



$12...$12...$12.....

Sorry....couldn't help myself......

 

[pow4ade]

Great post.

" I also question why Kobold would be willing to give away control of the north."

This bit I will speculatively answer.

Kobold currently has ZERO stake in Manono. Not even a tenuous dodgy bit held up by paper bags.
If the choice for them is:

1. Continue AVZ's fight for WHOLE tenement,
2. Close the dispute in the easiest way possible that allows them to still get an enormous stake in an enormous deposit,

Then it's easy to see why they would go for 2. That's also why they talk about it with phrases like "appropriate compensation" rather than buyout price.

Yes Zijin win big from this - Kobold would effectively be paying us off to end the dispute. But hey, if that's what they want to do, and they still get what they want out of it, that's good for them and good for us. As much as i want Zijin to rot in hell Im not gonna let that get in the way of being payed out appropriately for this saga.

So essentially Kobold is paying:
1. A takeover price for all of AVZ's interests in the South,
PLUS
2. Appropriate compensation for AVZ to close all current disputes so that the project can continue unimpeded.

(As far as I'm concerned all the valuations that have been thrown around pertain ONLY to 1, so whatever your number is, add something for 2.)

If their choice is that, or nothing, then that's why they're willing to pay and compromise.

But remember folks, those are KOBOLD's options, not OUR options. We are finally in a good position with this.

The rationale for Kobold relinquishing the North was according to one report to avoid a confrontation with the Panda.

Its also a pragmatic solution to a messy legal and corrupt situation, so presents as the easiest path for Kobold to secure the south.

 

[JNRB]

The rationale for Kobold relinquishing the North was according to one report to avoid a confrontation with the Panda.

Its also a pragmatic solution to a messy legal and corrupt situation, so presents as the easiest path for Kobold to secure the south.

The rationale for us is identical in that sense. We could have made the same decision years ago.
The difference is why it's worth Kobold making that trade-off but not us.

Because we have rights that Kobold doesn't - which is why Kobold should pay through the nose for it and accept other compromises like not having the entire tenement.

 

[Pokok]

100% correct there Spike!!!!



$12...$12...$12.....

Sorry....couldn't help myself......

That's US$ you're thinking I hope .

 

[Rightyo]

Thanks M8

By the way, I look around the room and I see a lot of people quoting numbers. Yesterday we had $1.00 then $2.00. Some say it's $12 or go home. And now we have $3.50 being floated.

My personal opinion is that we shouldn't be quoting numbers. Just let the BOD get the best deal for us because they know the full story. Nige knows his geo, and I reckon he knows a few little secrets too but I would urge against settling on a dollar figure because how do we know what those who are vying for it are quoting? Say it's $5 dollars but shareholder consensus has already settled on $3.50. Or Say they are offering $14 but we've all said $12. We just don't know what is being thrown around and what little sweeteners or hard ball games are being chucked into the mix

I get it, it's fun to speculate but even quoting what we think is a highball figure, we could be low balling ourselves.

I reckon just leave it to the pros and don't show our collective hand in the meantime.

Why sell? why not prefer royalties from whichever mofo develops this mamoth resource for the length of the mine, the way lithium is going S/H would be recieving a divy of 2 dollars per share every year. why sell the cow when u can have the milk

 

[BRICK]

Thanks M8

By the way, I look around the room and I see a lot of people quoting numbers. Yesterday we had $1.00 then $2.00. Some say it's $12 or go home. And now we have $3.50 being floated.

My personal opinion is that we shouldn't be quoting numbers. Just let the BOD get the best deal for us because they know the full story. Nige knows his geo, and I reckon he knows a few little secrets too but I would urge against settling on a dollar figure because how do we know what those who are vying for it are quoting? Say it's $5 dollars but shareholder consensus has already settled on $3.50. Or Say they are offering $14 but we've all said $12. We just don't know what is being thrown around and what little sweeteners or hard ball games are being chucked into the mix

I get it, it's fun to speculate but even quoting what we think is a highball figure, we could be low balling ourselves.

I reckon just leave it to the pros and don't show our collective hand in the meantime.

Unless its mentioned on South Park

 

[Carlos Danger]

My personal opinion is that we shouldn't be quoting numbers. Just let the BOD get the best deal for us because they know the full story. Nige knows his geo, and I reckon he knows a few little secrets too but I would urge against settling on a dollar figure because how do we know what those who are vying for it are quoting?

I reckon just leave it to the pros and don't show our collective hand in the meantime.

‘The value of Manono is between $2.5b and $10b’
- Nigel at the 2024 AGM

 

[Flight996]

Zijin Mining’s profit surges 52% on copper, gold prices​

Bloomberg News | March 21, 2025 | 9:37 am

Zijin’s operations in DRC. Credit: Zijin Mining Group

Zijin Mining Group Co., China’s biggest metals producer, saw profit surge 52% last year on higher output, and rising prices of copper and gold.

Net income rose to 32.1 billion yuan ($4.4 billion), the Fujian-based company said in an exchange filing, while sales climbed 3.5% to 303.6 billion yuan. The company had expected earning to increase 53% to 32 billion yuan.
The Chinese miner has grown aggressively in the past decade, becoming a major global copper supplier by building out big new projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo and China.

(Source: https://www.mining.com/web/zijin-minings-profit-surges-52-on-copper-gold-prices/)

Zijin is rolling in cash and assets. The company can easily afford to fully compensate AVZ for the loss of the northern portion of PR13359 (Carriere de l’Este) and the loss of the contract to refurbish the Mpiana-Mwanga Hydroelectric Power Station...circa $US2 billion.

Cheers
F

 

[Exo324]

RDC-Mines : le règlement à l'amiable recommandé pour les pénalités des australiens d'AVZ (Un analyste des industries extractives) - ACP

Kinshasa, 22 mars 2025 (ACP).- Le règlement à l'amiable lié au différend entre la Cominière (société étatique congolaise) et l'entreprise australienne sur le versement de « 42 millions USD des pénalités consécutives à une résolution d'un tribunal de commerce international, a été recommandé à...

acp.cd

Getting called out in their own media. Keep the heat coming

" There is a great risk that the part that is ceded will not benefit us as Congolese citizens, and there is also a risk that even the part that remains, which belongs to Dathcom, Avz Mineralis and others, will not benefit the State. The issue is that we agree to waste, to sell off this mining concession when it is of crucial importance for the country ," the analyst explained.

 

[Dave Evans]

Thanks M8

By the way, I look around the room and I see a lot of people quoting numbers. Yesterday we had $1.00 then $2.00. Some say it's $12 or go home. And now we have $3.50 being floated.

My personal opinion is that we shouldn't be quoting numbers. Just let the BOD get the best deal for us because they know the full story. Nige knows his geo, and I reckon he knows a few little secrets too but I would urge against settling on a dollar figure because how do we know what those who are vying for it are quoting? Say it's $5 dollars but shareholder consensus has already settled on $3.50. Or Say they are offering $14 but we've all said $12. We just don't know what is being thrown around and what little sweeteners or hard ball games are being chucked into the mix

I get it, it's fun to speculate but even quoting what we think is a highball figure, we could be low balling ourselves.

I reckon just leave it to the pros and don't show our collective hand in the meantime.

Yes I agree with you @Spikerama

The thing I can’t let go of is exposing the corrupt arseholes and even though there’s a lot of them, at the moment on Twitter it’s the DRC’s current MoM

https://x.com/DaveEva12049801/status/1903573488683896934

Kizito Pakabomba Kapinga Mulume (DRC Minister of Mines)

Kizito Pakabomba Kapinga Mulume (The DRC Minister of Mines) has overseen and supported Cominiere and Zijin’s corruption and violations of ICC and ICSID orders, as can be seen in the photos below. He also supported and endorsed Manono Lithium being granted a Mining Licence (PE) without having...

thestockexchange.com.au

Zijin Mining’s profit surges 52% on copper, gold prices​

Bloomberg News | March 21, 2025 | 9:37 am

Zijin’s operations in DRC. Credit: Zijin Mining Group

Zijin Mining Group Co., China’s biggest metals producer, saw profit surge 52% last year on higher output, and rising prices of copper and gold.

Net income rose to 32.1 billion yuan ($4.4 billion), the Fujian-based company said in an exchange filing, while sales climbed 3.5% to 303.6 billion yuan. The company had expected earning to increase 53% to 32 billion yuan.
The Chinese miner has grown aggressively in the past decade, becoming a major global copper supplier by building out big new projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo and China.

(Source: https://www.mining.com/web/zijin-minings-profit-surges-52-on-copper-gold-prices/)

Zijin is rolling in cash and assets. The company can easily afford to fully compensate AVZ for the loss of the northern portion of PR13359 (Carriere de l’Este) and the loss of the contract to refurbish the Mpiana-Mwanga Hydroelectric Power Station...circa $US2 billion.

Cheers
F

@Flight996 here’s some threads full of Zijin’s violations to use against them

Reports On Zijin Mining’s Violations

Read multiple reports on Zijin Mining’s violations Non fiction journalists reports on Zijin Mining 👇 Zijin’s poisoned legacy A toxic spill last year blackened the name of Chinese metals giant Zijin Mining. But, in Fujian, its broken promises and environmental failures have a longer history...

thestockexchange.com.au

Manono Lithium Continues To Violate ICC and ICSID Orders In The DRC

17/11/2023 https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231117/pdf/05xgd2s91x97y0.pdf 10/01/2024 Manono: The suspension of Manono Lithium's activities is being debated The Governor of the Province of Tanganyika suspends the career activities of the mining company ManonoLithium for an...

thestockexchange.com.au

 

[Mute22]

Game Over for Kagame: KoBold Metals and Bill Gates Move to Congo | Xtrafricahttps://static.wixstatic.com/media/67cd72_d4694c1f23d14ec0a2197ec82efdaf6c~mv2.webp

www.xtrafrica.com

But now, with support from the U.S. and KoBold Metals, Congo has a chance to move forward with trusted partners, not those who want to take without giving back.

Yeah, fuck AVZ right? Taking on all the risk, following your own mining code and agreeing to pay all the appropriate taxes. I hope this writer is referring to Zijin not us as a non-trusted partner.

 

[Mute22]

Game Over for Kagame: KoBold Metals and Bill Gates Move to Congo | Xtrafricahttps://static.wixstatic.com/media/67cd72_d4694c1f23d14ec0a2197ec82efdaf6c~mv2.webp

www.xtrafrica.com

But now, with support from the U.S. and KoBold Metals, Congo has a chance to move forward with trusted partners, not those who want to take without giving back.

Yeah, fuck AVZ right? Taking on all the risk, following your own mining code and agreeing to pay all the appropriate taxes. I hope this writer is referring to Zijin not us as a non-trusted partner.

I've noticed this recurring pattern with some African governments: they beg for foreign investment beyond China, especially when it comes to developing resources until a smaller, successful player emerges. Suddenly, that success is seen as "taking advantage," without considering the risks taken, the hard work, and the expertise required to secure and develop those resources.

Once the groundwork is laid and the venture begins to yield results, the narrative shifts and they want the entire pie rather, which would have stopped any explorer even trying in the first place. Then they’re left wondering why investors are hesitant to return when there is a graveyard of ventures foiled by corruption.

 

[Dazmac66]

Game Over for Kagame: KoBold Metals and Bill Gates Move to Congo | Xtrafricahttps://static.wixstatic.com/media/67cd72_d4694c1f23d14ec0a2197ec82efdaf6c~mv2.webp

www.xtrafrica.com

But now, with support from the U.S. and KoBold Metals, Congo has a chance to move forward with trusted partners, not those who want to take without giving back.

Yeah, fuck AVZ right? Taking on all the risk, following your own mining code and agreeing to pay all the appropriate taxes. I hope this writer is referring to Zijin not us as a non-trusted partner.

But kobold wants Zijin to keep the north!

 

[Dave Evans]

Thats why the world needs reminding of the truth

THE AVZ MINERALS STORY

Since 2017 in the DRC, AVZ Minerals has spent over $140 million on Acquiring Equipment for Infrastructure, Soil Sampling, Field Mapping, Consulting, Drilling, Metallurgical Testing, Completing a FEED Study, Environmental Study and Impact Assessment Reports including Groundwater Management, a 160...

thestockexchange.com.au

Cominiere’s Corruption

Cominiere’s Corruption Investors, mining companies, battery maker’s and EV manufacturer’s around the world know the story of AVZ Minerals and how DRC state miner Cominiere seized the Manono lithium project from Dathcom and sold it to Chinese Zijin Mining Follow the links below to see 1. The...

thestockexchange.com.au

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5934d2ae6b8f5beeb5ba23f3/t/67d3bd288dbce72fde15904f/1741929783803/20250310+27720+SVE+-+Copie+de+Courtoisie+de+la+Sentence+Partielle_en.pdf

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Hey guys, just remember when Kobold were sniffing around last year, NF said we didn't invite them. I.e Cominiere or Zijin invited them.

Maybe this is all part of Zijin's plan to secure the north.