AVZ Discussion 2022

[Carlos Danger]

Hi Fellas, I am Whiddon3 over on the chopper - these are my views I posted over there. Obviously we all only know what was in the announcement but my take is as follows.

Happy New Year SH's. Great way to kick off 2025 with some positive developments..

AVZ has proven that as the lead in the project they were not able to progress forward, this was due to all the detractors and all the roadblocks which popped up at every single turn. We were never going to move this forward as the lead, China was always going to obtain the control, no matter how long it took. The reason this has stalled is because until now China had not gained the control.

This deal gives Pei control of the project. Through this transaction he is getting 30.5% of the project (of which we owned 60% undisputed). So effectively AVZ has sold more than 50% of their share in the project. The 15% with Cong/Dathomir still needs to be resolved, plus the 15% first right of refusal is still arguably on the table somewhere.

The .5% is very interesting and where the clues lie as to how this ends up...

On completion of the TIA (and prior to the resolution of Dathomir + First right of refusal) AVZ will own 29.5% of the project. Pei will own 30.5%

Pei is now going to negotiate the ML and resolve the outstanding issues. So what will Pei get in addition to his 30.5%? Well he clearly wants control, and probably only has a mandate to negotiate on the basis that he does has the control over the project. So will he go after our 15% from Dathomir? Nigel must stay strong on this. That is ours, AVZ did a capital raise in Australia for that, we paid the transaction fees in accordance with the law and the deal terms. The we had the money returned, only to then be stolen from our farking bank account. That 15% is OURS, don't bend the knee on that Nigel.

If Pei needs control, give him the first right of refusal on the other 15%.

Then we have 44.5%, Pei has 45% and the DRC 10%.

I do believe the deal at present is good for us. It de-risks us big time, sure we lose some equity, but let's face it, we had nothing, we were on the canvas. The count was at 9.... Locke Funding was brutal, and meant court cases for years. Nightmare... At least here we have optionality. We can fund our share of development with with the $259m, or we can borrow from Pei at 9.00% and repay via profits, or we can raise money and fund via alternative means.

The key here is that the project gets fast tracked by Pei. Let's face it, we would take years and years to move it along. No ASX company can honestly be listed on the ASX and run a project in DRC. Too may anti corruption and bribery rules need to be broken just to operate in country.

In my opinion, even if Pei resolves the Dathomir issue, Nigel should NOT give up that 15%. A final standing of 29.5% would be a pretty big pummeling for the board. Let's hope we can get the extra 15% or at least 10% of that 15%, so we end up at 39.5% - 44.5%. Let's then sit back and let China do all the work and collect some divies in a few years.

Don't be mistaken people, we don't have control of the project anymore, but given the way this has played out to date I don't think that that is a bad thing. Let's get this thing going...

CATH are buying into our good legal title of 75% of Dathcom not 60%. Either the ICC rules it or Cong admits the SPA's were completed correctly. Either way the fact we have 75% of Dathcom is crucial for Graeme Johnston avoiding hard time so will be part of the deal imo

 

[TheCount]

Ever tried a gin tonic to relax?

After feeling relaxed, you can take a gin tonic to celebrate some good news for a change.

After the celebration gin tonic, you wouldn't have a clue why you were worried.

On another note, some idiot wants ugly cancer photos on gin bottles and other alcohol containing containers to warn us.
I reckon after a couple of glasses people will say 'Wazzat?', pointing at the picture.

Just imagine Jesus during the Last Supper pouring wine out of a bottle with a cancer warning.
They would have to change Leonardo da Vinci's painting.

Here’s some in production.

 

[Carlos Danger]

75% - 30.5% = 44.5% for AVZ

A key question will be while we may have legal control of the project as our 75% will officially need to vote as one block and we will retain majority of GLH under the deal do we have actual effective control anymore at 44.5% of Manono considering the regulatory and financial / lithium processing knowledge leverage of our partners?

Cominiere are under no obligation to sell the other 15% and could be funded by Zijin as we are by CATH

Or that 15% could go to the DRC government giving them 25%

Pretty sure DRC 10% free carried doesn’t come with voting rights but I might be wrong about that

Either way that would leave on an indirect basis AVZ at 44.5% vs CATH / DRC + Maybe Cominiere at 45.5% (49.5% AVZ vs 50.5% the others of the possible available voting rights)

Or 44.5% AVZ vs 55.5% the others if the DRC gov free carried 10% has voting rights

We will always have the power to legally veto things as I see it but CATH / DRC do now appear to be at least ‘indirectly’ in control as a way out of this quagmire imo

IIRC, there is clause in the origional JV whereby they are required to sell down to 10%, which then goes to the government.

Hmm not really, If AVZ has majority in GLH, then it's still 75% Voting power for AVZ.

I included both of those points in my post

The way I see it officially AVZ are in control to keep Western governments happy but unofficially Mr Pei is now running things although Nigel has a big legal stick he can use anytime if he trys anything shady

Seems like a perfect amicable solution to keep all parties happy and progress the project forward imo

 

[cruiser51]

Here’s some in production.

Are you sure it is gin?
It looks like, it still has to go through your distillation plant to get rid of the suspect floating brown bits.

 

[TheCount]

Are you sure it is gin?
It looks like, it still has to go through your distillation plant to get rid of the suspect floating brown bits.

“It’s in production” may just be a hint……

Vodka is having a relaxing bath in first world botanicals in preparation for the violent world of the backyard distillation process……

Cheers, soon…..

 

[Frank]

How Washington's tag on China's CATL could affect Tesla​

Washington's addition of CATL to a list of firms it says work with China's military could put Tesla founder Elon Musk in a tight spot, challenging how he balances his role in the Trump administration with his ties to China.

CATL, the world's largest battery maker, is a major supplier of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries to Tesla for its Shanghai factory, the U.S. automaker's largest. Tesla has been exporting these cars equipped with CATL batteries to other markets such as Europe and Canada.

Tesla and CATL are working on an agreement to license CATL technology for battery production in Nevada.

A person familiar with the matter said that the deal is expected to launch in 2025.

CATL is also set to supply battery cells and packs to Tesla's Shanghai plant for Megapack, its energy storage product, people familiar with the matter said.

The two are also in talks over how CATL can increase its supplies as the Megapack business grows.

CATL's deal with Tesla is modeled after an existing CATL partnership with Ford Motor which plans to start producing low-cost lithium-iron batteries by 2026 using technology licensed from CATL at a plant in Michigan.

Goldstein said he would not be surprised if Musk's favorable relationship with incoming President Donald Trump might allow Tesla some kind of waiver from potential future restrictions.

Musk, the world's richest person, has been tapped by Trump to co-lead , an entity Trump indicated will operate outside the confines of government.

In November, Robin Zeng, chair of CATL, told Reuters that the company would consider building a U.S. plant if Trump opens the door to Chinese investment in the electric vehicle supply chain.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/how-washingtons-tag-chinas-catl-could-affect-tesla-2025-01-07/

 

[BEISHA]

Hi Fellas, I am Whiddon3 over on the chopper - these are my views I posted over there. Obviously we all only know what was in the announcement but my take is as follows.

Happy New Year SH's. Great way to kick off 2025 with some positive developments..

AVZ has proven that as the lead in the project they were not able to progress forward, this was due to all the detractors and all the roadblocks which popped up at every single turn. We were never going to move this forward as the lead, China was always going to obtain the control, no matter how long it took. The reason this has stalled is because until now China had not gained the control.

This deal gives Pei control of the project. Through this transaction he is getting 30.5% of the project (of which we owned 60% undisputed). So effectively AVZ has sold more than 50% of their share in the project. The 15% with Cong/Dathomir still needs to be resolved, plus the 15% first right of refusal is still arguably on the table somewhere.

The .5% is very interesting and where the clues lie as to how this ends up...

On completion of the TIA (and prior to the resolution of Dathomir + First right of refusal) AVZ will own 29.5% of the project. Pei will own 30.5%

Pei is now going to negotiate the ML and resolve the outstanding issues. So what will Pei get in addition to his 30.5%? Well he clearly wants control, and probably only has a mandate to negotiate on the basis that he does has the control over the project. So will he go after our 15% from Dathomir? Nigel must stay strong on this. That is ours, AVZ did a capital raise in Australia for that, we paid the transaction fees in accordance with the law and the deal terms. The we had the money returned, only to then be stolen from our farking bank account. That 15% is OURS, don't bend the knee on that Nigel.

If Pei needs control, give him the first right of refusal on the other 15%.

Then we have 44.5%, Pei has 45% and the DRC 10%.

I do believe the deal at present is good for us. It de-risks us big time, sure we lose some equity, but let's face it, we had nothing, we were on the canvas. The count was at 9.... Locke Funding was brutal, and meant court cases for years. Nightmare... At least here we have optionality. We can fund our share of development with with the $259m, or we can borrow from Pei at 9.00% and repay via profits, or we can raise money and fund via alternative means.

The key here is that the project gets fast tracked by Pei. Let's face it, we would take years and years to move it along. No ASX company can honestly be listed on the ASX and run a project in DRC. Too may anti corruption and bribery rules need to be broken just to operate in country.

In my opinion, even if Pei resolves the Dathomir issue, Nigel should NOT give up that 15%. A final standing of 29.5% would be a pretty big pummeling for the board. Let's hope we can get the extra 15% or at least 10% of that 15%, so we end up at 39.5% - 44.5%. Let's then sit back and let China do all the work and collect some divies in a few years.

Don't be mistaken people, we don't have control of the project anymore, but given the way this has played out to date I don't think that that is a bad thing. Let's get this thing going...

Good to see you here Whiddon, you are completely wasted on that shit hole crapper site thats for sure , hoping to see more of you here and less over there in future....

Mate, you clearly are alot more clued up in the company structures than i am, after all, i am just a simple tradie ( hell, i didnt even know GLH was a entity so fark me )

That being said, this whole restructured deal with Cath comes with alot of conjecture including the arbitration cases yet to be resolved and ultimately, only the AVZ BOD really knows the correct equation going forward

I will attempt to contact the BOSS and seek clarification on this percentage structure, although i would think that is sensitive information so even if he told me, i wouldnt be able to reveal in any case.

Hopefully we get a formal announcement in the not too distant future explaining the mix cause i highly doubt we will need to wait until the next AGM for question time as i get the strong vibe a resolution to this mess is not that far away.

imo

 

[tolate]

Apologies, I've just been burnt by the LLL aggressive takeover. I do have a tendency to be pessimistic in my life unfortunately.

I have been a very, VERY long-term holder and have a million reasons to try to calm down. I will continue to read the information presented here. But I hope this all comes together the way it should (given our position).

I have been here since almost the beginning on TSE (when the mass migration occurred) but don't post much - usually since I'm pessimistic leaning.

Hoping 2025 is the year we unlock some decent value for shareholders.

EDIT: I can assure you I have no connection to Shane, Tolate, de Geist, Klaus or whatever. I have always been positive about the BoD given the circumstances they face.

One would assume certain posters want others to believe their ridicules WRONG outlooks, the past 2 years ...!
They have tried to bully others to think the same as they DO...!
Their behaviour is just TUNNEL VISION
Who would think the TIA held so much POWER..??????.....I DID
LockeDeal was all just smoke and mirrors..imo
Nigel has done nothing CATH has and willl make it happen...imo
No Mining License no MINE...????
Leave it at that...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[BEISHA]

One would assume certain posters want others to believe their ridicules WRONG outlooks, the past 2 years ...!
They have tried to bully others to think the same as they DO...!
Their behaviour is just TUNNEL VISION
Who would think the TIA held so much POWER..??????.....I DID
LockeDeal was all just smoke and mirrors..imo
Nigel has done nothing CATH has and willl make it happen...imo
No Mining License no MINE...????
Leave it at that...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[JNRB]

That is simple actually.

Dathcom is owned by AVZ and Cominiere.
Avz needs permission from Cominiere to sell a slice of Dathcom.

By selling a slice of GLH, they can say to cominiere 'Howzat, son'?
Not only that because GLH is registered in Singapore they also can say to FIRB the same 'Howzat, son'?

That's why the GLH was used as the holding company.

BTW fuck Dathomir.

Thanks cruiser. Simple answers are the best
So that's how it had to happen just to get the deal done. Aligning our interests with CATH just a nice side bonus it seems.

 

[Frank]

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

 

[Flight996]

Does anyone have information on the relationship split in CATH (CATL + Pei)?
It would be useful to understand who is the senior partner, CATL or Pei, and therefore who really calls the shots within the entity.

 

[cruiser51]

Thanks cruiser. Simple answers are the best
So that's how it had to happen just to get the deal done. Aligning our interests with CATH just a nice side bonus it seems.

A few years ago, Woodside bought into the SNE field, now the Sangomar field from Conoco Phillips.

FAR had FROR and took Woodside to court over the deal and claimed they had FROR.

Woodside actually bought a subsidiary of Conoco Phillips, which held the rights to the tenements, and did not buy the tenements.
Because Conoco Phillips had their affairs organised this way, they bypassed the FROR rule and FAR lost the legal case.

Something similar applies here.
Cominiere holds their 25% in their name and the FROR applies as per contractual obligations.
AVZI holds its rights in Dathcom via the Subsidiary GLH, so in AVZI case the FROR for Cominiere does not apply, as AVZI sells a part of its subsidiary.

If that makes sense.

All IMO of course.

Don't forget Zijin also keeps distance by claiming their 'rights' to the northern section is being held by a subsidiary and thereby can say 'It wasn't us!'.

 

[BEISHA]

Hopefully this link will show where CATH’s influence and being our partner can affect the outcome of our ICSID and ICC cases

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5934d2ae6b8f5beeb5ba23f3/t/670f4438ad86e64724b84c99/1729053753452/20241016+-+Announcement+-+Legal+Update.pdf

certainly hope so, my eyes still water reading all that arbitration shit.......what a mess !

 

[cruiser51]

Does anyone have information on the relationship split in CATH (CATL + Pei)?
It would be useful to understand who is the senior partner, CATL or Pei, and therefore who really calls the shots within the entity.

I believe CATH is 50/50 owned by CATL and Mr. Pei.

 

[Goldenboy]

View attachment 75757

He is having lunch with Superhooter. With any luck its special Beef Wellington.

 

[cruiser51]

certainly hope so, my eyes still water reading all that arbitration shit.......what a mess !

Try gin, it relaxes the bloodvessels.
Ask the count, he is an expert.

 

[PhatCatz]

I think something that is overlooked a tad in the forthcoming deal is that this is all of this underpinned by granting of the mining license for tenement 13359. I am silly to assume it's for the whole of 13359 as per the legal cases AVZ are currently fronting?

I still think the breakdown of holdings and who will have the controlling interest needs to be communicated by the company if this goes ahead. Some ambiguous language used and multiple responses on breakdown has been posted here. I've had another look and I still don't know clearly.

Also I'm not too well across voting rights of DRC etc but for arguments sake lets say this deal goes ahead and AVZ get screwed over at court or cease legal battles. If DRC having voting rights + existing Chinese interests on the books + CATH deal + what ever the fuck Zijin get out of this (Fuck em they deserve nothing) - is that enough to sway the voting balance of power to the Chinese? I'm actually unsure what INDIRECT interest is. even after a Googs and chatgpt quiz.

This is where my concern has been the last few days. This is kinda what happened at LLL and the games played by the Chinese to aggressively takeover/essentially lowball the project.

 

[BEISHA]

A few years ago, Woodside bought into the SNE field, now the Sangomar field from Conoco Phillips.

FAR had FROR and took Woodside to court over the deal and claimed they had FROR.

Woodside actually bought a subsidiary of Conoco Phillips, which held the rights to the tenements, and did not buy the tenements.
Because Conoco Phillips had their affairs organised this way, they bypassed the FROR rule and FAR lost the legal case.

Something similar applies here.
Cominiere holds their 25% in their name and the FROR applies as per contractual obligations.
AVZI holds its rights in Dathcom via the Subsidiary GLH, so in AVZI case the FROR for Cominiere does not apply, as AVZI sells a part of its subsidiary.

If that makes sense.

All IMO of course.

Don't forget Zijin also keeps distance by claiming their 'rights' to the northern section is being held by a subsidiary and thereby can say 'It wasn't us!'.

As i was a FAR investor back in the day, i can categorically say your assessment of WPL & Cocono Phillips is correct and poor ole far who did all the hard yakka of successfully finding oil 12 out 12 drills got completely shafted.

The difference between the senegal oil find and manono regards to FIRB , is WPL is a australian coy first and foremost and the oil find whilst lucrative, is not a smidge of the geopolitical significance as roche dure / CDL .

imo

 

[BEISHA]

I think something that is overlooked a tad in the forthcoming deal is that this is all of this underpinned by granting of the mining license for tenement 13359. I am silly to assume it's for the whole of 13359 as per the legal cases AVZ are currently fronting?

I still think the breakdown of holdings and who will have the controlling interest needs to be communicated by the company if this goes ahead. Some ambiguous language used and multiple responses on breakdown has been posted here. I've had another look and I still don't know clearly.

Also I'm not too well across voting rights of DRC etc but for arguments sake lets say this deal goes ahead and AVZ get screwed over at court or cease legal battles. If DRC having voting rights + existing Chinese interests on the books + CATH deal + what ever the fuck Zijin get out of this (Fuck em they deserve nothing) - is that enough to sway the voting balance of power to the Chinese? I'm actually unsure what INDIRECT interest is. even after a Googs and chatgpt quiz.

This is where my concern has been the last few days. This is kinda what happened at LLL and the games played by the Chinese to aggressively takeover/essentially lowball the project.

Correct me if i wrong tho, LLL investors got a payout ?