AVZ Discussion 2022

[BEISHA]

Are you taking suggestions?

I am open to any suggestions, what you got ?

 

[cruiser51]

I’m not sure why there are so many questions coming from so many new accounts again.

Let the BoD continue doing what they’ve been doing.

On a positive note, I recently accepted this interesting looking business card from someone in Fortitude Valley (Brisbane).

Not sure what this is but they mentioned it could help with my financial situation—feeling optimistic about it!

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Ugly Bob?

 

[Bray]

Well i thought president Xi was the alpha and every chinese state coy followed the narrative.......

Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Zijin head office ....

I wonder whats going thru Celestine head right now ?

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If Cath is the bigger fish maybe Xi has said give zinjin a backhander, fall into place. Who bloody knows

 

[BEISHA]

Captain Obvious summary is it's highly likely (given the timing) that CATH re-engaged because AVZ had the Locke funding for legal fees, meaning the "bleeding AVZ dry" strategy (as well as the amateurish attempts to take over the AVZ Board and allege "bribes") hasn't worked. CATH know AVZ will probably ultimately win the legal case.

The core question is whether CATH's reengagement is:

A) just the Chinese covering their bases. As in, China is in no particular rush and will be happy to let the legal situation play out for a few more years safe in the knowledge that China has locked in a future generational lithium supply via CATH or Zijin regardless of whether AVZ wins or loses the legal battle. If this is the case, China and their paid supporters in DRC will probably continue to rat f*** AVZ because Zijin is the cheaper cost and their preferred outcome.

Or

B) because CATH and Zijins' has decided to actively pursue the strategy, aided and abetted by the DRC Govt, of getting AVZ to agree that AVZ will get the South and Zijin the North, via the carrot and stick approach of promising a Mining Licence for the South and promising to continue to rat f*** AVZ if they don't agree. Legal case goes away, China happy, AVZ salvages something, sweetened by the CATH funding (needed to buy the additional 15% and for mine/plant construction) and the option of 49% of a possible hydroxide plant. Under this scenario CATH reengaged with AVZ to lock in 100% of Manolo lithium supply for China.

Or

C) CATH stepping in is a sign China want this crapola sorted ASAP so that mining can start. China has concluded the global scramble to secure sovereign controlled supplies of critical minerals currently underway will get more costly, frenetic and unpredictable with Trump. China knows a lithium supply squeeze is coming, most of the lithium supply will otherwise come out of the West, and it has decided Zijin has had it's chance and it's now time for action to lock in a cheap secure generational lithium supply.

Being optimistic perhaps it's C). The Chinese Govt would ultimately be calling the shots and they would have to had to agree to CATH helping out AVZ in such a material way. The looming supply issue and global scramble to secure sovereign supply rules out A) and CATH funding & strong legal case means AVZ is unlikely to agree to a South/North split, ruling out B).

Time will tell but seems all is not lost. Very happy with today's announcement. I was getting very antsy about why Locke funding hadn't actually been received.

I was getting very antsy about why Locke funding hadn't actually been received.

Maybe the locke deal never got signed.....

Maybe the locke deal was a smokey to force ones hand......

just speculating

Oh BTW, i think the only logical option you presented was C.

 

[BEISHA]

If Cath is the bigger fish maybe Xi has said give zinjin a backhander, fall into place. Who bloody knows

Whatever the case maybe Bray, the situation now has turned dramatically from 3 months ago...... whereby everyone was fretting that AVZ maybe wound up due to lack of funds.......now AVZ not only has funding with a strong legal case, they have multiple options on the table......go mining or secure a package deal and on sell with strength with CATH being the conduit to do our bidding with the fat cat / mom.

Dare i say it, AVZ holds all the cards!

Time will tell.

 

[Flight996]

If Cath is the bigger fish maybe Xi has said give zinjin a backhander, fall into place. Who bloody knows

My view is that CATH (CATL +) would have previously met with DRC officials (including the MoM) prior to developing and lobbing its proposal to AVZ. CATH would neither show its hand nor commit funds into an otherwise toxic situation without a meeting of minds and a full understanding of the DRC's view. In addition, an hydroxide plant is a value-add that Zijin cannot match.

As a result, this resurrected relationship and funding agreement with AVZ has the imprimatur of the DRC, and a negotiated settlement is probably the most likely outcome.

Just thinking out aloud.

 

[Bray]

Guess tim will tell. Interesting and great start to 2025.

 

[Mute22]

Whatever the case maybe Bray, the situation now has turned dramatically from 3 months ago...... whereby everyone was fretting that AVZ maybe wound up due to lack of funds.......now AVZ not only has funding with a strong legal background, they have multiple options on the table......go mining or secure a package deal and on sell with strength.

Dare i say it, AVZ holds all the car

Time will tell.

 

[j.l]

Guess tim will tell. Interesting and great start to 2025.

Tim has a helluva lot to answer for...

 

[Bray]

Tim has a helluva lot to answer for...

 

[Mr Inappropriate]

My view is that CATH (CATL +) would have previously met with DRC officials (including the MoM) prior to developing and lobbing its proposal to AVZ. CATH would neither show its hand nor commit funds into an otherwise toxic situation without a meeting of minds and a full understanding of the DRC's view.

As a result, this resurrected relationship and funding agreement with AVZ has the imprimatur of the DRC, and a negotiated settlement is probably the most likely outcome.

Just thinking out aloud.

I respectfully disagree. Not once has the DRC done the right thing - they will only do the right thing when all other options are exhausted. Backing down now and granting the license will see the DRC then going head to head with #FuckZijin who will like make their own claims against the DRC.
The only thing that moves the needle is the ICSID case imo.

 

[BEISHA]

My view is that CATH (CATL +) would have previously met with DRC officials (including the MoM) prior to developing and lobbing its proposal to AVZ. CATH would neither show its hand nor commit funds into an otherwise toxic situation without a meeting of minds and a full understanding of the DRC's view. In addition, an hydroxide plant is a value-add that Zijin cannot match.

As a result, this resurrected relationship and funding agreement with AVZ has the imprimatur of the DRC, and a negotiated settlement is probably the most likely outcome.

Just thinking out aloud.

 

[ptlas]

Been AWOL this week so haven't had time to properly read the announcement today.

You guys, gal's and non-binary generally seem very happy, so I'll run with that.
Firstly, hats off to the best BoD on the ASX . Seriously.
They've got us this far against huge negatives, and we need to trust that having run 26 miles, they'll complete the final lap.

Personally, I'll never trust any of the Chinese involved, including CATH /CATL.
But we've got Super Nige & co.

If anyone has a subscription to that esteemed publication, The AFR, I would appreciate you posting their take on the situation.

Congratulations all.
I think that there are a few more twists and turns to come, but hopefully of a generally positive nature.

NEVER GIVE UP.


Have a drink for John.

 

[Frank]

Been AWOL this week so haven't had time to properly read the announcement today.

You guys, gal's and non-binary generally seem very happy, so I'll run with that.
Firstly, hats off to the best BoD on the ASX . Seriously.
They've got us this far against huge negatives, and we need to trust that having run 26 miles, they'll complete the final lap.

Personally, I'll never trust any of the Chinese involved, including CATH /CATL.
But we've got Super Nige & co.

If anyone has a subscription to that esteemed publication, The AFR, I would appreciate you posting their take on the situation.

Congratulations all.
I think that there are a few more twists and turns to come, but hopefully of a generally positive nature.

NEVER GIVE UP.


Have a drink for John.

RIP John - Todays News should Help my friend

 

[Frank]

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

 

[Flight996]

I respectfully disagree. Not once has the DRC done the right thing - they will only do the right thing when all other options are exhausted. Backing down now and granting the license will see the DRC then going head to head with #FuckZijin who will like make their own claims against the DRC.
The only thing that moves the needle is the ICSID case imo.

Mate, you are absolutely correct; the DRC cannot be trusted to honour any agreement it enters. You are also correct that the DRC does not want to butt heads with Zijin Mining. However, the DRC seems to be holding just a pair of twos in this three-handed poker game. ICC/ICSID rulings will probably go against it, and it is already exposed to approximately $AU100 million in penalties before even a single shot is fired.

I think that we are approaching a point of no return for the DRC. CATH has swapped horses.

As you suggest, the trick will be to manage Zijin.

Cheers
F

 

[Yaseen]

I just hope the board have their bases covered, not a single one of these Chinese or Congolese fuckers can be trusted (CATH literally just tried to destroy us) that is all we have learned thus far.

The board must ensure there is a failsafe for every single move we make, and we should specifically spell this out to these theiving maggots that we will be implementing this or that clause because you tried to destroy us and we dont trust you a single bit, and we'd be bloody batshit crazy to believe a single word you say, but that we will do business with them in the name of progress alone, and Cominiere need to fuck off completely and sniff for brown paper bags in some other lump of dirt, no room to do business with anymore crack sniffing monkeys

 

[Hudnut]

I wonder whats going thru Celestine head right now ?

Hopefully, 2308.86 / 303
He deserves it.

 

[Scoota30]

In a cath vs zinjin battle, who actually has the bigger dick?
are cath the alpha

Zijin = $80B AUD market cap
CATL = $240B AUD market cap

 

[cruiser51]

Mate, you are absolutely correct; the DRC cannot be trusted to honour any agreement it enters. You are also correct that the DRC does not want to butt heads with Zijin Mining. However, the DRC seems to be holding just a pair of twos in this three-handed poker game. ICC/ICSID rulings will probably go against it, and it is already exposed to approximately $AU100 million in penalties before even a single shot is fired.

I think that we are approaching a point of no return for the DRC. CATH has swapped horses.

As you suggest, the trick will be to manage Zijin.

Cheers
F

Totally agree.

DRC as well as Cath have shown they cannot be trusted.
Just remember the way Cath voted in 2023 November with MMGA and what would have happened if they would have won that vote.
We would not be talking AVZ today and your money would have been gone.

As far as I see it, AVZ has funding to continue the fight.
That funding came at a price.

Until AVZ has the entire title back (and Zijin off the tenement), the ML and access to power from the hydro power station, the arbitration fight will have to continue.

Giving up arbitration now, because Pei started to talk business is insane.
Pei started to realize that there could well be a possibility that they could lose the lot, that is the only reason Pei wanted to talk.
The way the deal was struck really didn't cost Pei anything, just a couple of moves on the chess board.

The foot has to be kept on the throat and any wriggle has to be answered with an extra bit of weight on that foot, to make sure they understand.

Fukkum