AVZ Discussion 2022

[Rambo]

I hope it’s for printing lies about avz.

 

[obe wan]

I am well aware of that. It would be a risk I would be tempted to take with the information I have.

Is there a chance AVZ could end up with less than 50% doing this? Yes.

We have good legal title to 75% and first right of refusal to Cominiere's share. For us to go under 50% we would have to lose to Dathomir AND Zijin. It is possible that this could happen in the DRC due to the corruption, but we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million. Don't forget that if we continue to fuck around for years on end and run out of money, there is a real risk that we could lose the whole project.

1. The $240 million gives us time/options and prevents the Chinese from being able to easily wait until we run out of money (one of the possibilities that scares me most).

2. Having CATH invest $240 million means it is not only little AVZ who has a lot to lose if the project goes south. CATH are more powerful and have more influence than AVZ. I believe CATH met with the President at one stage. To me it is not only spreading the risk, but also decreasing it due to this increased power/influence.

3. The risk of AVZ going to under 50% control of Dathcom is a possibility, but it is not the worst possibility out there. I would much prefer to risk this than risk losing the project. The Chinese would build the mine quick and get things operational in record time. They would probably fuck around with transfer pricing etc, so we would not receive full value, but shareholders would likely still do well.

I look at examples like Komoa:

a joint venture between Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Zijin Mining Group (39.6%), Crystal River Global Limited (0.8%) and the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (20%)

Not ideal, but not the worst outcome.

AVZ has been suspended for almost a year. I want to get things moving.

The intent of that $240m is that it gets buried into initial mining development cost ( it's not keep the lights on $$$) , so in the mine development sector, that $240m gets evaporated within months not years and we certainly would not be, as you say -

‘we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million’

Komoa mine was held under Komoa Holdings a subsidiary of Ivanhoe ; Komoa Holdings held ‘80%’ of the Komoa project; Ivanhoe then sold 49.5% of Komoa Holdings off to Zijin for 400/500m.

Hand passing CATH 24% thus reducing us to 51%, with the Dathomir 15% still on the DRC registration books ( unresolved ) ; in the DRC....36% becomes a possible highlight figure ; i know you reckon you’d take the risk..but without drilling too far down into possibilities / scenarios , just take the percentages and names above... 24% CATH...Dathomir get through the door with their 15%; this takes AVZ to 36%.... Dathomir have zero intent in Inputting capital funds in Manono..they will offload..Dathomir sells 15% to CATH ; CATH now have 39%, AVZ loses control.

IMO until things are further resolved, I doubt management are going to play Russian roullet in that dark Chinese alley

 

[Samus]

Oh I see. This case is giving us headaches in the industry, we are working to get it resolved quickly, preferably amicably, by favoring dialogue between all the stakeholders, it will trigger other similar investments in the sector.

 

[cruiser51]

I hope it’s for printing lies about avz.

Maïss Tshibangu was arrested for hanging around the Fleuve Congo Hotel dressed like a pimp selling his services.

 

[Bin59]

 

[MoneyBags1348]

Oh I see. This case is giving us headaches in the industry, we are working to get it resolved quickly, preferably amicably, by favoring dialogue between all the stakeholders, it will trigger other similar investments in the sector.

He mentions we don’t understand the processes of mining in Africa…. Trouble is we do, we have learned the hard way and if we hadn’t been exposing it on here and twitter and and spreading the truth about AVZ being usurped by ministers and officials in the DRC working with Zigin, Cong and Klaus Jerkof we might not have been still in the fight.

We know Tshisekedi, Lukonde, Kazadi, Kayinda, N’samba, Loando etc have known about our situation and the IGF report for months and what is their response…. We want AVZ to sit down with Cominiere, Cong and Zigin and reach an amicable agreement (including being amicable with Celestin Kibeya)…. Oh, and the DRC wants a bigger share now than you have spent millions drilling and progressing the project for the last six years.

Keeping putting the truth out there respectfully has been our greatest strength, I personally don’t think we should stop now, it’s the pressure of the truth that motivates the DRC to do the right thing, not staying quiet

@obe wan I haven’t gone back over our original CATH TIA, but I remember at the time thinking that the agreement meant who ever pulled out of it had to stump up $20 million and that wasn’t reliant on a further signing of a contract

 

[Frank]

I hope it’s for printing lies about avz.

 

[Frank]

Wowwwww, this whole time most of us have imagined CATL as the respectful saving grace that will do nothing but brilliant things. Imagine if they have been feeding info to Zijin...


@JAG doing some lovely work over on the bird at the moment

*Someone buy this Bloke a Beer, an Easter Egg and a Bunny, plus a Hot Cross Bun for his tummy for all the hard work on Twitter

Love your work JAG - much appreciated

Cheers

Frank & Bugs Bunny

 

[wombat74]

CCK was bitching about AVZ doing business with Cath in the interview . From memory he said he blocked it from going ahead . The guy was full of sh1t so maybe he was just chest beating . Either way , if Cath are out surely we have had other offers to get on board .

 

[Bray]

The people of DRC are impressed by their president

 

[MoneyBags1348]

He mentions we don’t understand the processes of mining in Africa…. Trouble is we do, we have learned the hard way and if we hadn’t been exposing it on here and twitter and and spreading the truth about AVZ being usurped by ministers and officials in the DRC working with Zigin, Cong and Klaus Jerkof we might not have been still in the fight.

We know Tshisekedi, Lukonde, Kazadi, Kayinda, N’samba, Loando etc have known about our situation and the IGF report for months and what is their response…. We want AVZ to sit down with Cominiere, Cong and Zigin and reach an amicable agreement (including being amicable with Celestin Kibeya)…. Oh, and the DRC wants a bigger share now than you have spent millions drilling and progressing the project for the last six years.

Keeping putting the truth out there respectfully has been our greatest strength, I personally don’t think we should stop now, it’s the pressure of the truth that motivates the DRC to do the right thing, not staying quiet

@obe wan I haven’t gone back over our original CATH TIA, but I remember at the time thinking that the agreement meant who ever pulled out of it had to stump up $20 million and that wasn’t reliant on a further signing of a contract

@obe wan I just had a read of the CATH TIA. It’s a little hard to work out the exact terms because it says both parties did enter into the agreement

One thing is for sure when you read this announcement…. The project had so much promise under this agreement that the DRC government has made a massive fuck up by allowing Cominiere to undermine this project by illegally selling 15% of the project to Zigin.

Worse for us is the fact that if the CATH TIA had been completed and we had been in the construction phase, our share price would already by over $3. Absolute fucken corruption and incompetence has fucked this up for us and the DRC

 

[Azzler]

🫨

Didn't Twiggy just meet the DRC president last month?
Didn't we recently hear from somewhere that FMG wanted the monono licence?
Isn't FMG loaded with cash?

🫨

 

[obe wan]

@obe wan I just had a read of the CATH TIA. It’s a little hard to work out the exact terms because it says both parties did enter into the agreement

View attachment 33595

View attachment 33598

One thing is for sure when you read this announcement…. The project had so much promise under this agreement that the DRC government has made a massive fuck up by allowing Cominiere to undermine this project by illegally selling 15% of the project to Zigin.

Worse for us is the fact that if the CATH TIA had been completed and we had been in the construction phase, our share price would already by over $3. Absolute fucken corruption and incompetence has fucked this up for us and the DRC

yes @MoneyBags1348 I've read that and many of us where asking. why hasnt this carried through as the extensions started to snowball , but its highly likely that the AVZ legal eagles had a clause inserted somewhere, which was triggered when this percentage bullshite started to seep out and create its own minefield for the company ; bloody frustrating, as you say and i agree i reckon we'd all be in a much better mental and financial state than we all are at present

You only have to look at snakehead in this image, that thieving prick had other ideas straight away

 

[Bin59]

The IGF @ALINGETEJULES_K received in audience this Monday, April 03, 2023 by the VPM @VitalKamerhe1:

DRC / Economy: the IGM intends to support the Ministry of the National Economy by providing its expertise in economic and financial inspection.

This meeting was also a sharing of experience in dealing with economic and financial issues but also and above all, the expectations of the Ministry of National Economy vis-à-vis the General Inspectorate of Finance.

Note that this support and the involvement of the IGF requested by the VPM of the Economy, will allow its portfolio to fight against the pouring of revenue in its sector, by strengthening economic control, and the support of the Directorate in charge of it.

 

[M.Bison]

LTR encroaching on a $6 billion valuation pre production. Wonder if any government official in the DRC can see how much money this mess is costing them. In a proper business environment, AVZ is a $10-$20 Billion company. Given the DRC GDP is $55 billion, hoping they can come to their senses this decade.

 

[DoubleA]

The intent of that $240m is that it gets buried into initial mining development cost ( it's not keep the lights on $$$) , so in the mine development sector, that $240m gets evaporated within months not years and we certainly would not be, as you say -

‘we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million’

Komoa mine was held under Komoa Holdings a subsidiary of Ivanhoe ; Komoa Holdings held ‘80%’ of the Komoa project; Ivanhoe then sold 49.5% of Komoa Holdings off to Zijin for 400/500m.

Hand passing CATH 24% thus reducing us to 51%, with the Dathomir 15% still on the DRC registration books ( unresolved ) ; in the DRC....36% becomes a possible highlight figure ; i know you reckon you’d take the risk..but without drilling too far down into possibilities / scenarios , just take the percentages and names above... 24% CATH...Dathomir get through the door with their 15%; this takes AVZ to 36%.... Dathomir have zero intent in Inputting capital funds in Manono..they will offload..Dathomir sells 15% to CATH ; CATH now have 39%, AVZ loses control.

IMO until things are further resolved, I doubt management are going to play Russian roullet in that dark Chinese alley

Highly unlikely that AVZ would burn through $240 million within months without the mining licence. If the mining licence is granted then the issues are likely substantially resolved anyway.

I am well aware of the percentages.

The Minister of Portfolio has always been against AVZ. Now the Minister of Mines has cancelled the decrees for the mining licence due to lack of cooperation. What percentage will AVZ control after Cominiere continue refusing to cooperate and the DRC Government strip the project? The answer is 0%.

As I said, I would be tempted to take the risk with the information that I have. AVZ seemed to have been caught off guard by the cancelling of the decrees. No one at a high level in the DRC Government seems to be willing to meet with AVZ. At least with the $240 million invested the Chinese would have some skin in the game.

 

[MoneyBags1348]

LTR encroaching on a $6 billion valuation pre production. Wonder if any government official in the DRC can see how much money this mess is costing them. In a proper business environment, AVZ is a $10-$20 Billion company. Given the DRC GDP is $55 billion, hoping they can come to their senses this decade.

I think the Chinese are telling the DRC if you want us to start any infrastructure build ahead of the election you have to include us in Manono.

We have already seen the Chinese build roads and then charge tolls on them and we have seen the result of the deal of the century where China profited from cobalt and copper and didn’t spend what they promised on infrastructure and now probably telling the DRC if they want that same infrastructure built and infrastructure around Manono as well then they want a share of the lithium as well.

China committed military to the DRC as well, but again this has only been to progress their own interest. These rotten corrupt Chinese companies are trying to force their will on the DRC, and the DRC need someone else to build their infrastructure so they can piss the Chinese off out of the country…. Hopefully they are seeking tenders from elsewhere like the US or Saudi Arabia. To be honest I think they are all corrupt but they also all want lithium (especially our high grade) desperately

With global growth in a state of economic stall, and with high inflation and interest rates demand for EV’s has also stalled. But there has always been a rapid rise in growth following this type of scenario in the past (I think, I’ve become a little brain fatigued from our situation) and the demand for lithium will continue to far outpace supply in my view, leading again to another push higher for lithium prices

I don’t think CATH ever really wanted to manufacture batteries in the DRC, but Panasonic and LG Chem, who are in the top 5 battery producers in the world might, and perhaps Japanese and South Korean car manufacturers might like to build car factories between the DRC and Zambia.

Just thinking of other options, the best in my mind would probably be Albermarle, BHP or FMG taking a majority ownership over our project with us still involved so we could get those dividends many of us hoped for down the road.

I’ve got no idea what I posted above, just fucken rambling now because like I said, I’m brain fatigued, sick of the incompetence and corruption in the DRC and dealing with fuckwits and I’ve spent so much time on here over the last year it’s getting so I don’t know what else to do with myself

The only thing that might make me feel better is a PM signed selfie from @Nellie17

Just joking Nell’s, my better half is gorgeous, one day I might even post a photo of her here

One thing won’t change at least….

You can all have some of this
🫵

 

[Retrobyte]

Maïss Tshibangu was arrested for hanging around the Fleuve Congo Hotel dressed like a pimp selling his services.

In jail, he will meet Hebangu

 

[Flight996]

I think the Chinese are telling the DRC if you want us to start any infrastructure build ahead of the election you have to include us in Manono.

We have already seen the Chinese build roads and then charge tolls on them and we have seen the result of the deal of the century where China profited from cobalt and copper and didn’t spend what they promised on infrastructure and now probably telling the DRC if they want that same infrastructure built and infrastructure around Manono as well then they want a share of the lithium as well.

China committed military to the DRC as well, but again this has only been to progress their own interest. These rotten corrupt Chinese companies are trying to force their will on the DRC, and the DRC need someone else to build their infrastructure so they can piss the Chinese off out of the country…. Hopefully they are seeking tenders from elsewhere like the US or Saudi Arabia. To be honest I think they are all corrupt but they also all want lithium (especially our high grade) desperately

With global growth in a state of economic stall, and with high inflation and interest rates demand for EV’s has also stalled. But there has always been a rapid rise in growth following this type of scenario in the past (I think, I’ve become a little brain fatigued from our situation) and the demand for lithium will continue to far outpace supply in my view, leading again to another push higher for lithium prices

I don’t think CATH ever really wanted to manufacture batteries in the DRC, but Panasonic and LG Chem, who are in the top 5 battery producers in the world might, and perhaps Japanese and South Korean car manufacturers might like to build car factories between the DRC and Zambia.

Just thinking of other options, the best in my mind would probably be Albermarle, BHP or FMG taking a majority ownership over our project with us still involved so we could get those dividends many of us hoped for down the road.

Mate, I think that AVZ can expect nothing from the USA in the near term.
Despite a couple of high-level meetings in mid-2022 and early 2023, the USA has committed nothing to the DRC due to the DRC's endemic corruption. As US Sec of State Blinken said in mid-2022: US investment will come when corruption ends. That pretty much sums up where the USA stands on investing in the DRC.
Europe, Japan and Korea remain unconvinced about investing in the DRC, despite some initial interest, particularly from Panasonic and LG.
The neo-colonist Chinese, however remain committed to the DRC...committed to keeping the DRC impoverished, and exploiting and stealing everything they can lay their grubby hands on.

Unfortunately, at this stage of the game there are no white knights for AVZ.

Nonetheless, I remain positive that prior to the ICC mediations in mid-April, AVZ can negotiate and agree an outcome that all stakeholders can live with.

Cheers
F

 

[cruiser51]

In jail, he will meet Hebangu

He might have time for Hebangsall after, might as well do a proper job, so Mills will never forget.