AVZ Discussion 2022

[Sparrowhawk12]

Smiling, fundamentally serene and reassured by her victories, the Princess
@adelekayinda01
faithful and loyal to the Head of State, continues to work for the awakening of the State Portfolio. She's still here for a very long time!!!

There's a few of us refuting / rebuffing Adele's serenity & faithfulness on twitter

 

[Frank]

Lithium price plunge ​

Lithium’s recent price collapse and the prospect that supply from new mines could accelerate the slump are stoking fierce debate in the electric-car battery industry.

It’s an argument that’s pitting ARK Investment Management Chief Executive Officer Cathie Wood against some of the sector’s most prominent voices.

Lithium carbonate in China, a key benchmark, has tumbled almost 30% since touching a record in November, a sharp reversal from the material surging more than 14-fold since mid-2020 as automakers rushed to lock in raw materials needed for the rapid expansion of their electric lineups.

Signs of slower sales in China, the top EV market, along with concern about subsidy cuts and destocking activity across the battery supply chain have all weighed on lithium’s outlook.

The potential impact of more supply is also now acutely in focus, with a stream of expansions or new projects that promise to get up and running this year.

Wood said last week that the extraordinary run-up in prices of the metal had been a “clarion call” for more production, and that the response from the industry means “odds are high that lithium will be in excess supply.”

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, a leading industry group, has warned that rising supply could weigh on lithium prices this year, while BYD Co. said it expects the metal to stabilize in 2023.

Others including Joe Lowry, founder of advisory firm Global Lithium, insist demand is being underestimated and that these prognosticators fail to take into account the complexities of securing funding and permitting for new mines.

Suppliers are more bullish, too.

“Early indications are both that cathode inventory and battery inventory in China are decreasing, which is a good sign for lithium sales,” Kent Masters, CEO of Albemarle Corp., one of the top global producers, told investors last week.

The firm expects “continued favorable pricing for lithium” this year, according to a statement.

Another issue that my colleague Mark Burton and I highlighted earlier is whether less-established companies and nations will be able to deliver supply as promised.

That’s particularly important for some of China’s key players, who are pinning hopes on the success of a cluster of new projects across Africa.

The continent has emerged as a hot spot for Chinese lithium investment, and is becoming a counterpoint to US efforts to build out its own supply networks with free-trade partners and other allies like Canada and Australia.

Chinese refiners are preparing for miners in Australia to move into higher-value downstream chemical production, which could limit the volume of raw material available for export, according to Peng Xu, analyst at BloombergNEF.

Ganfeng Lithium Group Co. has invested in Goulamina mine in Mali, while Chengxin Lithium Group Co. has interests in Zimbabwe.

Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. and a unit of top battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. are among investors in a project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Several African nations will join the ranks of top producers of lithium raw materials through the end of the decade, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF.

Many of those countries are already major suppliers of metals like copper and cobalt to Chinese companies that ship the materials for processing at their own domestic refineries.

“The least risky and best places for Chinese companies are probably places they have had success in the past,” said Jason Holden, a senior metals and mining analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

mining.com

 

[Onthefm]

T

There's a few of us refuting / rebuffing Adele's serenity & faithfulness on twitter

This bitch isn't going anywhere seems to be quite wealthy and happy exactly where she is. Imo

 

[Hemicuda]

Why would he be??
At RS or AGM he, along with other large holders, had obviously been unknowingly primed by BoD.

I then read, I think here, that his wealth is all his wife's.

No skin in the game, however likes being ' in the know'.

But a broken clock....

Full of shit more like it, is he told to tweet? Hmm?

 

[Winenut]

Looks like a bit of a tough day across the broader market today

Hang in there everyone and look after yourselves

 

[Scoota30]

Can anyone work out who is on this newly formed Congo Battery Council (yet again)



AVZ was initially invited, but I do not know if they are represented , as Nigel did say there was silence on the Battery Council

Also interesting as to what assignments they have been given

I used to think King Julien (shoutout to @Frank) was one of the good ones...
Haven't heard him say AVZ since around the time of the Battery council.

I sent an email to headquarters on friday last week and haven't received a response. i was quite civil and just wanted to share my thoughts on everything as someone posted on here recently after the last decree Ann saying they encourage emails to come through and will pass them on to the BoD.

One of the 6 questions i asked in the email was: Which government officials are we actually talking to?

Seems like for the past 3 years all we have had from announcements is "Engaged, co-operative and collaborative relationships with DRC government" but all of us are yet to see any of this. If the MoP is against us, the MoM isn't even talking to us, King Julien (MoI) hasn't got us involved in the Battery Council 2.0, then who the F*ck are we actually in discussions with??? other than the Manono Chief?

 

[Dazmac66]

Looks like a bit of a tough day across the broader market today

Hang in there everyone and look after yourselves

AVZ holding firm @ 78c. Sweet!

 

[TDITD]

Smiling, fundamentally serene and reassured by her victories, the Princess
@adelekayinda01
faithful and loyal to the Head of State, continues to work for the awakening of the State Portfolio. She's still here for a very long time!!!

Kat Shit has lost his fucking mind

 

[John25]

Getting ready for my weekly dose 42 coming up

 

[TDITD]

I’m happy with that.
Get Nigel to argue a caveat that whoever gets the North 25% cannot break ground for a minimum 2 years so our mine would be built before anyone can start.
Let’s dig this shit up ffs

We'd need a lot more than just that, Hydro - not Zijins, Infrastructure - they upgrade roads, among other conditions, an make that shit watertight, if they don't adhere the north comes straight back to us.

Immaterial anyhow as those slimy cheating fucks would still bribe, lie and fraud their way out of doing anything while breaking ground and holding us up. We would be a few kms away at Roche Dure looking over at CDL with our pants around our ankles AGAIN.

NO DEAL

ZIJIN GO FUCK YOURSELVES

 

[smileatme]

Lithium price plunge ​

Lithium’s recent price collapse and the prospect that supply from new mines could accelerate the slump are stoking fierce debate in the electric-car battery industry.

It’s an argument that’s pitting ARK Investment Management Chief Executive Officer Cathie Wood against some of the sector’s most prominent voices.

Lithium carbonate in China, a key benchmark, has tumbled almost 30% since touching a record in November, a sharp reversal from the material surging more than 14-fold since mid-2020 as automakers rushed to lock in raw materials needed for the rapid expansion of their electric lineups.

View attachment 30267

Signs of slower sales in China, the top EV market, along with concern about subsidy cuts and destocking activity across the battery supply chain have all weighed on lithium’s outlook.

The potential impact of more supply is also now acutely in focus, with a stream of expansions or new projects that promise to get up and running this year.

Wood said last week that the extraordinary run-up in prices of the metal had been a “clarion call” for more production, and that the response from the industry means “odds are high that lithium will be in excess supply.”

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, a leading industry group, has warned that rising supply could weigh on lithium prices this year, while BYD Co. said it expects the metal to stabilize in 2023.

Others including Joe Lowry, founder of advisory firm Global Lithium, insist demand is being underestimated and that these prognosticators fail to take into account the complexities of securing funding and permitting for new mines.

Suppliers are more bullish, too.

“Early indications are both that cathode inventory and battery inventory in China are decreasing, which is a good sign for lithium sales,” Kent Masters, CEO of Albemarle Corp., one of the top global producers, told investors last week.

The firm expects “continued favorable pricing for lithium” this year, according to a statement.

View attachment 30268

Another issue that my colleague Mark Burton and I highlighted earlier is whether less-established companies and nations will be able to deliver supply as promised.

That’s particularly important for some of China’s key players, who are pinning hopes on the success of a cluster of new projects across Africa.

The continent has emerged as a hot spot for Chinese lithium investment, and is becoming a counterpoint to US efforts to build out its own supply networks with free-trade partners and other allies like Canada and Australia.

Chinese refiners are preparing for miners in Australia to move into higher-value downstream chemical production, which could limit the volume of raw material available for export, according to Peng Xu, analyst at BloombergNEF.

Ganfeng Lithium Group Co. has invested in Goulamina mine in Mali, while Chengxin Lithium Group Co. has interests in Zimbabwe.

Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. and a unit of top battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. are among investors in a project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

View attachment 30269

Several African nations will join the ranks of top producers of lithium raw materials through the end of the decade, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF.

Many of those countries are already major suppliers of metals like copper and cobalt to Chinese companies that ship the materials for processing at their own domestic refineries.

“The least risky and best places for Chinese companies are probably places they have had success in the past,” said Jason Holden, a senior metals and mining analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

mining.com


View attachment 30271


View attachment 30270

@Frank , But I could notice a bit of trend in the chart you shared. 30% drop in EV sales during Nov to Feb period on last two years as well (2021, 2022).
May be something else is in play here during Nov to Feb?
Yes, mine supply is increasing, so is demand for EVs and batteries.
And some correction in price is healthy, right? Wait another 6 months, the yellow line could average up.
Thanks for your posts.

 

[Flight996]

So does the mining code say you lose 50% of the "perimeter" of the tenement not 50% of the "area" of the tenement?

Hi Winenut

That is my understanding.

Ref: https://eiti.org/sites/default/files/attachments/j_o_ndeg_speicial_du_28_mars_2018_code_minier.pdf

Original:
A l’occasion du renouvellement, le titulaire du Permis de recherches renonce d’office à au moins 50% du
périmètre couvert par son permis et doit élaborer et obtenir l’approbation du Plan d’atténuation et de
réhabilitation révisé pour l’activité proposée, avant de poursuivre les travaux de recherches minières.
Le Règlement minier détermine les modalités du dépôt, de la recevabilité ou de l’irrecevabilité, de
l’instruction, de la décision du renouvellement du Permis de recherches ainsi que son inscription et
affichage

Google translation:
On the occasion of renewal, the holder of the Permit of research automatically renounces at least 50% of the
perimeter covered by its permit and must develop and obtain approval of the Mitigation Plan and
revised rehabilitation for the proposed activity, before continue mining exploration work.
The Mining Regulations determine the terms of the filing, admissibility or inadmissibility, of
the instruction, the decision to renew the Exploration permit as well as its registration and
display

Cheers
F

 

[BEISHA]

That’s only for a research permit ; it’s the reason we lost 50% on the extensions I.e . Leaving it too long and not doing anything and having to renew

This doesn't really apply because Dathcom were going for a PE, not a renewal of the PR. We lost 50% of the other tenements around Manono with this exact process. I don't think there was ever any claim that the north had been split again. AJN's application was for the whole north area as shown on the CAMI portal.

The question is does a partial waiver automatically start the PR process again?

Nigel wants the partition to stand so management must be confident of retaining the north if they can successfully have the MoM's new decrees overturned. Or maybe they only really want the south and don't care about the north because it's haunted by mica.

Thanks for that clarification , yes , getting my PE mixed with PR.

So another question, was it unrealistic for AVZ to be seeking PE over the entire tenement, given the fact CDL is very much a PR project , with only a few holes poked in the south ?

So many questions i have.

How could the initial ML decree include the south of CDL , but not the north ?

Where in DRC mining law does it state that could happen ?

Was it due to the fact that no exploration was done there or was it indeed a partial waiver ?

Docs suggest it was a partial waiver..........why would AVZ do that with no assay evidence that it had high mica content ?

Regardless of mica content, plenty of extraction processes out there to " iron " out that problem, still deeming the north of CDL to be worth billions !!

Does AVZ require share holder approval to instigate a partial waiver ?

AVZ lawyers are highly paid to navigate thru all this shit, how did they get hood winked to accept the intial ML decree without noticing the north of CDL cut off ?

Do they have good knowledge of DRC mining law ?

How did FT get the impression from his crooked cabinet ministers that AVZ were not worthy / credible in being awarded a ML ?

Why wasnt FT following the docs and progress of Manono in the first place ?


Seriously, my head just boggles with this calamity jane..........

 

[wombat74]

RD the set up . CDL the pay off . Could this be part of the Zijin game plan all along ? Create a sh1t storm to instigate a compromise (CDL) . If it is the case and they pull it off that's a very devious and clever (not in a good way) play .

 

[Carlos Danger]

Thanks for that clarification , yes , getting my PE mixed with PR.

So another question, was it unrealistic for AVZ to be seeking PE over the entire tenement, given the fact CDL is very much a PR project , with only a few holes poked in the south ?

So many questions i have.

How could the initial ML decree include the south of CDL , but not the north ?

Where in DRC mining law does it state that could happen ?

Was it due to the fact that no exploration was done there or was it indeed a partial waiver ?

Docs suggest it was a partial waiver..........why would AVZ do that with no assay evidence that it had high mica content ?

Regardless of mica content, plenty of extraction processes out there to " iron " out that problem, still deeming the north of CDL to be worth billions !!

Does AVZ require share holder approval to instigate a partial waiver ?

AVZ lawyers are highly paid to navigate thru all this shit, how did they get hood winked to accept the intial ML decree without noticing the north of CDL cut off ?

Do they have good knowledge of DRC mining law ?

How did FT get the impression from his crooked cabinet ministers that AVZ were not worthy / credible in being awarded a ML ?

Why wasnt FT following the docs and progress of Manono in the first place ?


Seriously, my head just boggles with this calamity jane..........


View attachment 30278

Here is a copy of the mining code:

https://eiti.org/sites/default/files/attachments/j_o_ndeg_speicial_du_28_mars_2018_code_minier.pdf

So another question, was it unrealistic for AVZ to be seeking PE over the entire tenement, given the fact CDL is very much a PR project , with only a few holes poked in the south ?

No. The mining code doesn't specify that work needs to be carried out across the whole tenement to apply for a PE. The applicant holding the PR only needs to prove the resource is economical to mine in regards to drilling requirements. AVZ received the favourable opinions for the full 221 carrés. CAMI's approval was signed off by Mupande.

How could the initial ML decree include the south of CDL , but not the north ?

Because that's where the declaration submitted by Dathcom cut it off. From memory it was on the line of our most northern drill holes.

Where in DRC mining law does it state that could happen ?

Article 60. As long as the applicant submits a declaration of partial renunciation.

Was it due to the fact that no exploration was done there or was it indeed a partial waiver ?

From the AGM:

Q: Issue that a portion of mines directorate said we hadn’t done the work on the northern tenement area, and shouldn’t get the north?

A: That’s not within the mining code. So 13359 should be retained in its entirety – however the northern area may need to come under a separate exploration tenement, even though that’s not the established process. – We know who’s behind this (e.g. DG CAMI)

Docs suggest it was a partial waiver..........why would AVZ do that with no assay evidence that it had high mica content ?

Because management were tricked into believing that's what Felix wanted and were obviously given guarantees that Dathcom would retain the north as a PR in a JV with the DRC government. Hopefully they have something substantial to back up their claims in the May 4th 2022 announcement.

Does AVZ require share holder approval to instigate a partial waiver ?

Not if management understood at the time that Dathcom would still retain the north as a PR. And have evidence to back those claims.

AVZ lawyers are highly paid to navigate thru all this shit, how did they get hood winked to accept the intial ML decree without noticing the north of CDL cut off ?

They obviously also believed Mupande that this is what Felix wanted

Do they have good knowledge of DRC mining law ?

Overall I would say yes. Christian Lukusa is very impressive in that interview in September. At the end of the day it would have been management's decision whether to proceed with submitting the partial renunciation application.

How did FT get the impression from his crooked cabinet ministers that AVZ were not worthy / credible in being awarded a ML ?

Snacks

Why wasnt FT following the docs and progress of Manono in the first place ?

All of the advisors that were implicated by management as being the main detractors to AVZ are now gone. The final proof of how closely Felix has been following the docs and progress of Manono will be in the reshuffle imo

 

[Remark]

Has anyone heard anything about the alleged raid by the IGF on CAMI office investigating Mupande? Just a Twitter rumour?

 

[Winenut]

We'd need a lot more than just that, Hydro - not Zijins, Infrastructure - they upgrade roads, among other conditions, an make that shit watertight, if they don't adhere the north comes straight back to us.

Immaterial anyhow as those slimy cheating fucks would still bribe, lie and fraud their way out of doing anything while breaking ground and holding us up. We would be a few kms away at Roche Dure looking over at CDL with our pants around our ankles AGAIN.

NO DEAL

ZIJIN GO FUCK YOURSELVES

Or.....

$12 $12 $12!!

 

[ptlas]

RD the set up . CDL the pay off . Could this be part of the Zijin game plan all along ? Create a sh1t storm to instigate a compromise (CDL) . If it is the case and they pull it off that's a very devious and clever (not in a good way) play .

Interesting theory though I suspect not.
Z is used to getting its way, so maybe thought that they could take everything.
Just a few more paper bags. Maybe they didn't have enough bags

While that looks unlikely to happen now, then maybe the fallback position is now take CDL

 

[Panther22]

When are these IGF reports going to get some credence and some action taken on their contents?
I see a lot more Twitter posts in AVZ favor by DRC locals which can only be a good thing.
I am just confused as to when this all comes to a head. Is it...........
1/ ICC hearing April/May?
2/ Removal of Ministers and new ones put everything back on track?
3./ Felix takes action and finally rights all the wrongs?
4/ Negotiation?
5/ Waiting game, one party relents?
6/ Reapply for mining decree and best offer wins?

If there isn't a resolution process how does it come to a head?
I spend far too much of my day following this saga as do most of you. Really appreciate the informative posts that educate me on the process and where its all at but desperate for a finish line.

The counter is brilliant, excellent work Spike. Thanks to Moneybags for amount of time, effort and research you put into your posts.
Others who are in the same boat as us thank you too.

Non holders, why do you feel the need to add your two bobs worth? Down rampers, l hope the pay is good because you look stupid a lot of the time. Best you stay anonymous.

I am well into the 7 figures for number of shares held. Obviously life changing should it all work out, not so good if it doesn't.

GLTAH

 

[TDITD]

Or.....

$12 $12 $12!!

Fuck the word 'Or'.......just $12
I have decoded Deboss tweet

An afternoon thought for all $AVZ shareholders: Stay patient……The best things happen unexpectedly

I was almost thrown off by the wink, but after a whole night of code busting work by my expensive crack team of the worlds foremost codebreakers, we got it.

Now everybody knows the famous saying "The best things happen when your naked"

Why did he change this popular saying, possibly inciting a wave of social media rage .
The word unexpectedly, hmmm it is no coincidence once we counted the letters in this word.
We then extrapolated the 12 letters in this word must mean a
$12 takeover by Zijin the minimum the scum should pay has been agreed upon.

$12

$12

$12
heard it here first, well second after Deboss $12