AVZ Discussion 2022

[Mute22]

I'm okay with that as long as they actually do pay the related fair value. If we're talking about paying off enough to cover the ICC/ICSID damages then that $10b USD seems to be about where fair value currently lies. Not this 67c & 80c/share (AUD) bullshit that's been floating around.
The roughly $4.15AUD/share is still a bargain for the pricks. Pocket change for a billionaire consortium.

$4.15?

About $7.85 short.

 

[Skar]

it’s for us to fuck off with some cash, and no claims whatsoever to the tenements in Manono

Walk away from 850Mt of Lithium, at surface with low impurities... I am seeing 10B USD thrown around in ICC/ICSD.

 

[Hudnut]

The problem I see with any bids from a consortium is Kobold positioning themselves as the chosen one with the snack eaters.
If there is any action required by Felix/DRC as part of this deal, then Kobold has a 2 year head start on the competition.
That is, if we aren't prepared to walk away and go full length ICSID.

 

[Xerof]

Walk away from 850Mt of Lithium, at surface with low impurities... I am seeing 10B USD thrown around in ICC/ICSD.

Mate, I would dearly love that to be the amount they give us to fuck off with too, don’t get me wrong

 

[Mouthpiecenomnom]

My 2c worth:

We have an agreement with KoBold that references a framework for how they will acquire Manono from us.

Despite understandable speculation, its plausible that their agreement with DRC is part of the framework agreed with AVZ.

If its not, then it's directly in contrast with the AVZ agreement and a great excuse for AVZ to continue negotiating with other potential buyers (which speculation on here seems to think there are).

I for one will assume the former. We are winning our legal cases, and KoBold gains nothing from acquiring an asset that comes bundled with a whole new set of legal actions. Especially when they have already publicly acknowledged our rights to the tenement.

KoBolds options here are not:
1. Screw AVZ over for a good deal.
2. Screw harder for an even good-er deal

It's:
1. Make an amicable agreement with both AVZ and DRC to acquire the lithium asset of the century,
2. FUCK OFF AND GO HOME WITH NOTHING.

I do not believe they intend to go home with nothing.

I agree with this take. Call me naive but the kobold CEO has given us no real reason to be suspicious. Imagine you are the Kobold CEO. You go to AVZ with a number to fuck off. Number is accepted by the BOD. Next go to Felix. Say "hey we can circumvent all the bs and make kobold the owner of Manono south +exploration tenements etc." Kobold CEO is making damn sure the DRC won't pull a fast one. He wants reassurances that the money to AVZ isn't going too be wasted. Felix says okay. They do a deal to make it happen in warp speed. This requires CK to pull the levers. Involving CK is a disasteful but pragmatic solution to getting a ML fast. Understandably AVZ shareholders are triggered and suspicious of his involvement but it's no reason to jump to conclusions. Imo cheers

Edit: This idea is from my general take on the kobold CEO. He seems far more concerned about locking a deal in fast/time than he is concerned about $. This works to our favour.

 

[David Krappenschitz]

Say it's a cash payout, i.e. AVZ receives cash from Kobold for the stake in Manono project. Can that then distributed to SHs in a way that allows CGT discount benefit? Would assume if paid as dividend it would be taxed the same as standard income tax?
Would management doing a share buyback be something that allows shareholders to get the 50% CGT discount?

 

[KentCStrait]

Say it's a cash payout, i.e. AVZ receives cash from Kobold for the stake in Manono project. Can that then distributed to SHs in a way that allows CGT discount benefit? Would assume if paid as dividend it would be taxed the same as standard income tax?
Would management doing a share buyback be something that allows shareholders to get the 50% CGT discount?

This is going to enrage people, and rightly so given the Australian Government has done absolutely nothing for us, but the company is going to have to pay tax on the KoBold payout. And then we're going to have to pay tax again. To trigger CGT discounts, and minimize tax it's should be a share buyback plus a franked dividend. Prepare yourselves, we are going to get fucked again, just the degree of lubrication used is going to depend on how the return of our money is structured.

Also, even if the cash hits AVZ's account tomorrow, it's likely going to 6 months plus before we see a cent. ASIC and the ATO are going to want their say in it.

 

[dollarbills]

I really wish Kobold just buy out AVZ. That would be an easy CGT event.. Hopefully Nigel can persuade them to do so and perhaps some of the AVZ staff will stay on and work for Kobold.

 

[Mute22]

 

[Woogr]

That doesn’t read like a deals done.

 

[KentCStrait]

So there you have it, direct from the board itself. KoBold is trying to do exactly what the Chinese did—cut us out and take the asset. The only difference is they’re smiling while they do it and wrapping it in geopolitical spin.

 

[Jongo]

From Copilot ...

Key Timeline

Date​	Milestone​	Responsible Party​
17 Jul 2025​	Agreement in Principle signed	DRC / KoBold
31 Jul 2025​	KoBold submits final permit applications Valuation panel appointed	KoBold / AVZ
15 Aug 2025​	Valuation panel delivers fair-market report	Independent Panel
31 Aug 2025​	Payment of first cash tranche (40 %)	KoBold (via escrow)
15 Sep 2025​	Issuance of equity tranche (60 % in KoBold shares)	KoBold
?​	Permit-Issuance Bonus paid (5 % of valuation)	Kobold
?​	First-Discovery Bonus paid (10 % of valuation), Upon first resource announcement	Kobold

I am expecting that the Kobold payments to AVZ will come in stages as described in my post from Saturday. However, after the AVZ fair value terms are finalised, perhaps AVZ will relist on the ASX before AVZ returns funds to shareholders. This approach will mean that market forces can put a value on AVZ based on the expected future cash flow from Kobold to AVZ. In the case where the AVZ payment includes an equity tranche in Kobold shares, and with the possibility that Kobold becomes publicly listed in the future, I imagine that future AVZ investors will place a high value on this because the future for Kobold is bright.

If AVZ does relist on the ASX, then existing shareholders can choose to sell via the ASX and hence, be eligible for the CGT discount where applicable. Another advantage of this approach is that if the Kobold payments are subject to escrow terms, the existing AVZ shareholders will be able to realise part or all of their profit much sooner and take that long overdue holiday.

 

[Hemicuda]

View attachment 88713

Add kobold to the list Dave

 

[Jongo]

So there you have it, direct from the board itself. KoBold is trying to do exactly what the Chinese did—cut us out and take the asset. The only difference is they’re smiling while they do it and wrapping it in geopolitical spin.

No they are not, and your interpretation is unrealistic and pessimistic.

 

[Panther22]

That doesn't read well to me. Great that we got an announcement but it just doesn't have a good feel about it OR is Kobold just getting it's house in order with DRC before our deal is completed?

 

[David Krappenschitz]

So there you have it, direct from the board itself. KoBold is trying to do exactly what the Chinese did—cut us out and take the asset. The only difference is they’re smiling while they do it and wrapping it in geopolitical spin.

I don't read it the same way, IMO if that were the case it wouldn't state that AVZ is in continued discussions with Kobold (and other parties). To me it's just posturing reaffirming AVZ's strong legal position as it enters further discussions with these parties.

All IMO

 

[KentCStrait]

I don't read it the same way, IMO if that were the case it wouldn't that AVZ is in continued discussions with Kobold (and other parties). To me it's just posturing affirming AVZ's strong legal position as it enters further discussions with these parties.

All IMO

I think you and Jongo need to go back and re-read. We've reported KoBold to ICSID.

 

[dollarbills]

Surely Kobold wont ratfuck AVZ after signing a framework and publicly stating fair compensation?

 

[Skar]

That doesn't read well to me. Great that we got an announcement but it just doesn't have a good feel about it.

Is it applying pressure from both sides? AVZ and Kobold coming at the problem from different angles to get the project unstuck or are we getting shafted?

The DRC are certainly fragmented and built on various factions and [selfserving] interests, so maybe pressure from both sides ss what is needed and AVZ/Kobold are in good standing... if they are under enough pressure they have to make a deal so their problems go away.

I do wonder who the various parties are.

 

[BRICK]

Oh fucking joy town.

Everyone trying to fuck us.

Fuckem all go to court and dont spare the horses