AVZ Discussion 2022

[Skar]

Looks like Jens, Maja & August are playing tag team low ball on AVZ SH's expectations

"$AVZ The US is not desperate for anything in this world. And as our new President is making clear, we will walk away from deals that does not advance our national interests or those of our allies. We hold all the cards."


https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1922496153054019939

I am not worried about it, our management team, kobold and the DRC/US governments need to sort out affairs now I doubt some twitter or forums posts will sway matters at all. Besides the top 20 shareholders of AVZ own half the company. Which means retail holders opinions (or even those who consider themselves sophisticated) won't matter at all.

I do agree with August though on what he says about the US, you can't strong arm them or paint them as being desperate by any stretch. What we have is a very valuable asset, literally the only one in its class available. They could actualise over a 20-30x return on a fair value sale and everyone would still be happy (even at 30x thats likely well over a 10B sale, maybe even 20B over its lifetime - this is a 30+ year mine... they literally cannot measure the lifetime value because it scales outside most models). 669 Million tonnes of lithium at/near surface drilled out ready for mining/processing (Kobold say their AI predicts a lot more undrilled out there too, 15% of global supply once online), abundance of tin and tantalum. Also with or without Manono, the infrastructure will be built, the security for minerals is going ahead and as much much more copper will be needed globally (and cobalt). So if the value is there we can sell, if its not we can hold out. Despite what twitter says.

 

[Azzler]

Looks like Jens, Maja & August are playing tag team low ball on AVZ SH's expectations

"$AVZ The US is not desperate for anything in this world. And as our new President is making clear, we will walk away from deals that does not advance our national interests or those of our allies. We hold all the cards."


https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1922496153054019939

Why would shareholders be interested in low balling their own sale price?
I think your language on this is absurd and you're off the reservation.

 

[Azzler]

Look, Kobald and Nigel have signed a MoU that states "Fair Value" compensation.
Fair value of Manono has been well established, risk has been well established.
Just wait and see what the offer is and can everyone stop being completely mental all of a sudden! Thanks

 

[Skar]

Why would shareholders be interested in low balling their own sale price?
I think your language on this is absurd and you're off the reservation.

They are probably after an exit, not sure if it was Jens or another sizeable holder, that said they were 40s and could afford to buy all the toys on a sale and they wanted to enjoy it while they are young enough to, not when they are in their 50s.

The correct treatment of cgt alone could warrant up to a half price sale discount and yield a better outcome for shareholders. So everyones position is different.

Just wait and see what the offer is and can everyone stop being completely mental all of a sudden! Thanks

I mean... this is the Internet...

 

[Mute22]

Looks like Jens, Maja & August are playing tag team low ball on AVZ SH's expectations

"$AVZ The US is not desperate for anything in this world. And as our new President is making clear, we will walk away from deals that does not advance our national interests or those of our allies. We hold all the cards."


https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1922496153054019939

I believe Jens and Maja are allowing their personal circumstances to heavily influence their perspective. They’ve both indicated a strong desire to exit and have faced challenges largely driven by financial pressures.

They’re baby boomers who purchased at much lower prices and in significant volume, and now they’re looking to retire. I understand their position truly, I do. I also bought in at a relatively low price, but being younger, I’m more comfortable riding this out in pursuit of a stronger long-term return and with greater tolerance for risk.

I suspect many others are in a similar situation younger investors who have already sacrificed a lot in terms of starting families or entering the housing market. While I respect the challenges faced by older holders, I find it difficult to sympathize with those who took on concentrated risk so close to retirement. After having lived through the strongest decades of Western growth in history, you had your chance to take on risk while young, your generation have cultivated ridiculous wealth while holding the ladder, now let me get a step on.

 

[Skar]

After having lived through the strongest decades of Western growth in history, you had your chance to take on risk while young, your generation have cultivated ridiculous wealth while holding the ladder, now let me get a step on.

Careful now, you will get me fired up on the insane 0-risk irrational wealth accumulation from Sydney house prices from those with means vs those without over the last 5-10 years!!!

 

[Azzler]

I believe Jens and Maja are allowing their personal circumstances to heavily influence their perspective. They’ve both indicated a strong desire to exit and have faced challenges largely driven by financial pressures.

They’re baby boomers who purchased at much lower prices and in significant volume, and now they’re looking to retire. I understand their position truly, I do. I also bought in at a relatively low price, but being younger, I’m more comfortable riding this out in pursuit of a stronger long-term return and with greater tolerance for risk.

I suspect many others are in a similar situation younger investors who have already sacrificed a lot in terms of starting families or entering the housing market. While I respect the challenges faced by older holders, I find it difficult to sympathize with those who took on concentrated risk so close to retirement. After having lived through the strongest decades of Western growth in history, you had your chance to take on risk while young, your generation have cultivated ridiculous wealth while holding the ladder, now let me get a step on.

I don't believe that's true, but lets just say it is for the sake of argument.
You believe that accepting maybe $1 or $1.50 is a mistake because if we wait longer, we can get more.
And these SH just want whatever we can get now because they're old.

Have you considered that they realise it's the best forseable outcome right now?
Have you not see the depths of corruption the DRC will go to?

If we say no to the USA, who exactly is going to come save us? We will again be alone on the DRC with them wanting us dead and buried.
If the USA walk away, I don't know what people are dreaming about? You think waiting 10 Years to get maybe a few cents on the dollar is better?
Baffling, and I blame to $12 folks who have set completely unreasonable expectations.

 

[Frank]

Looks like Jens, Maja & August are playing tag team low ball on AVZ SH's expectations

"$AVZ The US is not desperate for anything in this world. And as our new President is making clear, we will walk away from deals that does not advance our national interests or those of our allies. We hold all the cards."


https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1922496153054019939

https://x.com/Amovatio/status/1922512621435019410

 

[Yaseen]

I don't believe that's true, but lets just say it is for the sake of argument.
You believe that accepting maybe $1 or $1.50 is a mistake because if we wait longer, we can get more.
And these SH just want whatever we can get now because they're old.

Have you considered that they realise it's the best forseable outcome right now?
Have you not see the depths of corruption the DRC will go to?

If we say no to the USA, who exactly is going to come save us? We will again be alone on the DRC with them wanting us dead and buried.
If the USA walk away, I don't know what people are dreaming about? You think waiting 10 Years to get maybe a few cents on the dollar is better?
Baffling, and I blame to $12 folks who have set completely unreasonable expectations.

Big diff between $1 and $1.50, at $1 i'd be pissed as that's not fair value plus partial compensation, at $1.50 it may be palatable for many even though the asset and damages are worth a shit load more

 

[Skar]

Big diff between $1 and $1.50, at $1 i'd be pissed as that's not fair value plus partial compensation, at $1.50 it may be palatable for many even though the asset and damages are worth a shit load more

Big diff between a $1.50 unfranked dividend and a $1 capital buy back too. They said they may only sell the mine, we want them to buy the whole company really.

 

[Scoota30]

Looks like Jens, Maja & August are playing tag team low ball on AVZ SH's expectations

"$AVZ The US is not desperate for anything in this world. And as our new President is making clear, we will walk away from deals that does not advance our national interests or those of our allies. We hold all the cards."


https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1922496153054019939

How admirable of August. like someone on X commented under, that he hides behind Trumps strength after being so critical of him for so long. Unfortunately this is one of those rare L's of August because he is clearly wrong. At the moment Nigel holds all of the cards & 75% legal title plus FROR for 15% more and the US might not publicly show they are desperate, but their executive orders and other bills (actions) speak louder than their words. There's no denying the US involvement is a net positive for all involved, but to say they "hold all the cards" is completely untrue.

In saying that, they can buy the entire deck for $12 USD and then they will hold all of the cards

 

[Frank]

Big diff between $1 and $1.50, at $1 i'd be pissed as that's not fair value plus partial compensation, at $1.50 it may be palatable for many even though the asset and damages are worth a shit load more

 

[Shire]

I am very pleased to see the announcement of the Saudis and USA establishing a $600B fund. I had wondered where KoBold's $ would come from for the purchase of AVZ given they only recently raised $537M and only have a total valuation of ~$3B.

 

[Stockinvesting]

I don't believe that's true, but lets just say it is for the sake of argument.
You believe that accepting maybe $1 or $1.50 is a mistake because if we wait longer, we can get more.
And these SH just want whatever we can get now because they're old.

Have you considered that they realise it's the best forseable outcome right now?
Have you not see the depths of corruption the DRC will go to?

If we say no to the USA, who exactly is going to come save us? We will again be alone on the DRC with them wanting us dead and buried.
If the USA walk away, I don't know what people are dreaming about? You think waiting 10 Years to get maybe a few cents on the dollar is better?
Baffling, and I blame to $12 folks who have set completely unreasonable expectations.

Well said. Agree totally. Wake up Mute22.

 

[Remark]

Why would shareholders be interested in low balling their own sale price?
I think your language on this is absurd and you're off the reservation.

I'll take Azzler's advice and STFU because clearly, my language is absurd.

Realistically we don't even know what's been offered, if anything.

Here's an enema I prepared earlier just in case the US does walk away in an orange huff.

 

[LowRoller88]

Something to consider… I doubt that accepting a lowball offer would provide any relief to those seeking funds asap. Aside from most people getting fucked over from a low offer, I would see this as triggering a significant class action from all shareholders who have lost money, and this legal action could result in any funds that AVZ has received from the sale being frozen until the case is settled… so we just need to secure a decent payout (fair value, and above ATH after costs/tax as a bare minimum) so we can all be happy

 

[Stockinvesting]

Something to consider… I doubt that accepting a lowball offer would provide any relief to those seeking funds asap. Aside from most people getting fucked over from a low offer, I would see this as triggering a significant class action from all shareholders who have lost money, and this legal action could result in any funds that AVZ has received from the sale being frozen until the case is settled… so we just need to secure a decent payout (fair value, and above ATH after costs/tax as a bare minimum) so we can all be happy

Class action my arse. None of this has been the BOD's fault

 

[Samus]

Class action my arse. None of this has been the BOD's fault

That's arguable.
Some people have short memories.
This shitshow started during Covid when management were sitting pretty in their Perth office for years as the Chinese started manipulating things in country on the sly.
They dropped the ball in a big way.
Plus they never disclosed the sort of legal troubles we were having, corrupt judges or not.

 

[Strongman]

Class action my arse. None of this has been the BOD's fault

Would have to agree the BOD have played the straight bat here all the way and every regular here on TSE knows exactly the pile of corrupt shit the board has had to fight through to get us this far. Thank god for the foresight of engaging the ICSID in the original JV
In saying that we are all aware of the 1) AFP raid (instigated by who ?)
2) The Fat Tail supreme court proceedings which didnt happen
3) The OMNI Bridgeway class action which didnt gain any traction and also didnt happen
Perhaps if Nige did proceed with a low ball offer (pure speculation) then iam sure he would be mindful of upsetting enough investors where Omni Bridgeway could very likely gain some traction and risk a new class action being commenced.
I reckon anything above ATH would negate this risk for him and therefore forms the downside and at the other end we have the US $10 bil compensation claim from Nige and the directors to bookend the Kobold offer scope.
All pure speculation though and lets just call it $12 because that would make me filthy rich

 

[Spikerama]

That's arguable.
Some people have short memories.
This shitshow started during Covid when management were sitting pretty in their Perth office for years as the Chinese started manipulating things in country on the sly.
They dropped the ball in a big way.
Plus they never disclosed the sort of legal troubles we were having, corrupt judges or not.

The other thing is there was some serious sudden down pressure on the stock leading up to suspension. Yes there were shorts, but I reckon if you delved into communications and consignment accounts it could get a bit sketchy.

I don't think we want to go there to be honest but it's certainly not out of the question, facon de parler.