Carlos Danger
Top 20
What are you basing the ‘3 months’ on?
Clearly not the ICSID procedural rules, 9card’s timeframes or Nigel’s comment at the AGM that it will last until late 2026 or early 2027
You smashed me in likes tho lmao
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Clearly not the ICSID procedural rules, 9card’s timeframes or Nigel’s comment at the AGM that it will last until late 2026 or early 2027
You smashed me in likes tho lmao
3 months deliberation
then court hands down findings
then awards (think of this as sentencing)
then appeals process (inevitable regardless of who's found to be in violation)
then liquidation of awards
If it goes the full process, we'll definitely be into 2026 (but for the record, I don't believe this will be allowed to proceed in June).
Also, (and my apologies if this sounds negative), we must remember that if all goes to plan, we'll be selling at asset level. This means it's highly likely that proceeds will get returned to SHs as non franked dividends after the exploitation of any relevant local tax breaks and an ATO class ruling (this takes another 3 months). The ROC% will be relatively small.
Unfortunately this is something that the majority of SHs won't care about given they are off shore entities). Forget share buy backs etc. The only way around it as i see it is if its a deal with a RIO whereby we take equity (highly unlikely) or a very small chance of relisting with a similar asset purchased from Manono sale funds (again highly unlikely and a ridiculous amount of red tape) - again majority of large SHs are based off shore and happy with cash.
I've just been through a very similar example with LLL / FFX (forced sale to the Chinese at asset level in Mali) and PSC (sold to Chinese at asset level in Zimb). My asshole has only just recovered after the ATO turned it into a butchers bin. (Although for PSC, I was a non resident so didn't pay any tax).
If you have enough in this (and its in your own name) and it pans out how I expect, its probably worth moving to Dubai and playing golf for 2 years in order to get the non tax residency status for Aus...
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Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.
If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.
I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.
Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!
It's hard to know but I think there are clues.Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.
If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.
I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.
Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!
- we know Kobold was sniffing around last year
- one we don't have to guess is when the DRC sent their 'minerals for security' 9ffer to the US
- Boulos was promoted to grand-poobah of African relations right before making a trip to DRC. He didn't go on a fact-finding mission, he's a closer there to work on getting a deal done.
These are all events with known dates that work well enough to set up an agreement prior to arbitration
Stockinvesting
Regular
Well laid out mate. Agreed.
FWIW, I can't see the USA taking their time on this.
Felix needs a fix. Fast. We all know he approached THEM , not the other way around.
He wants a quick fix and is prepared to sell the family jewels (Manono) to get it.
WANT THIS. They (Trump) will not like playing 2nd fiddle to anyone, Kobold, Arabs, Europe and definitely NOT the Chinese.I really believe a deal is not to far away.
GLTAH.
Hemicuda
Regular
Will it feel better or worse? after all this time of being fucked by the DRC and Chinese cunts, to turn around be proper fuckd by ATO,,, something to
Look fwd to,,,,
Only ones that don’t want a quick resolution are the lawyers, they making a killing ( I will add DLA Piper have been great for AVZ but will still make bank out if it )Well laid out mate. Agreed.
FWIW, I can't see the USA taking their time on this.
Felix needs a fix. Fast. We all know he approached THEM , not the other way around.
He wants a quick fix and is prepared to sell the family jewels (Manono) to get it.
I really believe a deal is not to far away.
GLTAH.
Frank
Top 20
China frets about its dependence on Africa’s resources as US muscles in
China has heavily invested to secure raw materials from African nations, but US accusations over those deals pose new risks
A leading Chinese industry association has warned the country risks becoming too dependent on raw materials from individual nations in Africa, as the continent becomes a battleground in an intensifying global tussle for resources.
China’s vast manufacturing sector is heavily reliant on African countries to supply several crucial materials, with Guinea emerging as a dominant supplier of bauxite – an aluminium ore that is essential to make everything from cars to electronics.
Ge Honglin, head of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said this dependence could become a strategic vulnerability during a visit to the West African nation on Saturday, as he called for greater efforts to secure the bauxite supply chain.
“Internationally, greater attention must be paid to the risks of overconcentration in certain countries, ensuring safer development and acquisition of overseas resources,” Ge said, according to an article posted on the association’s website.
China’s imports of bauxite soared to 141.6 million tonnes in 2023, with the country relying on imports for 86.1 per cent of its supplies of the ore, according to a research note published by Dongxing Securities last year.
And Guinea provided most those imports.
China’s bauxite imports from the West African country skyrocketed from 11.94 million tonnes in 2016 to 99.26 million tonnes in 2023, as Chinese industrial firms invested heavily in the nation.
Indonesia’s bauxite export ban, which came into force two years ago, has made China even more reliant on Guinea’s mines.
“The high concentration of bauxite imports in specific regions means that the supply from mining sources is increasingly vulnerable to potential event-driven risks,” said Dongxing Securities analyst Zhang Tianfeng in the report.
Meanwhile, China’s aggressive pursuit of critical minerals across Africa has alarmed Washington and sparked a global rare metals race on the continent.
On Monday, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent accused China of gaining foreign mining rights through “rapacious deals” in Latin America and Africa, and he vowed to prevent that during an interview with Bloomberg TV.
The United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have been negotiating a “multibillion” deal since early April that would trade access to minerals in exchange for security, according to US President Donald Trump’s top Africa envoy.
The DRC is the leading global producer of cobalt, a key mineral in the production of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles and smartphones. The country also holds significant reserves of gold, diamonds and copper.
China already has large interests in DRC cobalt and copper mines, with Chinese state-owned creditors approving 19 loan commitments worth about US$12.85 billion for related mining projects in the country between 2000 and 2021.
Why China is worried about its growing reliance on Africa’s resources
China has heavily invested to secure raw materials from African nations, but US accusations over those deals pose new risks.
sc.mp
Splitting the North for Compo ?
I am hoping the US tells DRC if you want protection for minerals that the North must be returned to Dathcom / AVZ.as Comminiere /Zijin have no legal right.
Highly unlikely that the corruption shown by Zijin that they will seek ICC.
Trump will certainly show no compensation towards China.
How can it be sold to Zijin again when they Comminiere / Zijin think they can and are proceeding to mine it.
Need a Presidential decree from Felix to suspend Zijin and Comminiere from Manono.
spot on and when this is all over I will really express myself on this forum
More important than Felix needing a fast win, Trump needs a fast win. As you said, he wants it, and that's what's more likely to move the needle on this thing IMO.Well laid out mate. Agreed.
FWIW, I can't see the USA taking their time on this.
Felix needs a fix. Fast. We all know he approached THEM , not the other way around.
He wants a quick fix and is prepared to sell the family jewels (Manono) to get it.
I really believe a deal is not to far away.
GLTAH.
He has declared chaos is the new economic weapon of the US, which has scared the shit out of investors, angered allies and locked him into an escalating trade war with China. China, for their part, has used CRITICAL MINERALS as it's method for retaliation. He has thrown a lot of shit at the wall but still waiting for any of it to stick.
An agreement with DRC would allow Trump to waive around a big win that:
- his strategy on tariff negotiations is working
- his 'minerals-for-security' approach to foreign policy is working
- USA can still be preferred economic partner over CHINA
- USA doesn't need to be threatened by China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains
--- And as a little bonus after gutting foreign aid: that USA is still 'helping' poorer nations around the world.
I could be wrong and it happens and he doesn't really care, but it offers enough propoganda value to TrumpCo. that I'd be surprised if they're not looking to capitalise on it like this.
THIS IS TIME SENSITIVE TO THEM.
A chaos strategy like their tariff bonanza is NOT working until there's proof it DOES. Remember, the precedent for their tariff war lead America into the great depression, so it's a risky strategy. Every week that goes by where Trump has caused financial pain to citizens and destroyed trust with allies without anything tangible to show for it is incredibly damaging. The best argument republicans have is "oh but he wrote 'the art of the deal' so you just have to trust in the majesticalness of Trump'. But trust only last for so long when there's so much chaos.
So pretty much everyone has some sort of incentive to get a deal done prior to ICSID.
everyone - except us.
Our incentive is simply the cold, hard cash, and our position gets stronger as we progress through arbitration.
So pay-up mofos.
$12*
*(regardless what we get, I'm pretty sure once the dust has settled I'm gonna get a '$12' tattoo as a memento
)Great couple of posts Powerage - very informative thank you.
Just thinking about the dividend distribution; wouldn’t a more beneficial way of distributing capital be a Return of Capital? That way, shareholders could access a capital gains tax deduction, providing the ATO okay it. I know Nigel has millions of reasons to find the most advantageous return of capital mechanism possible.
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Levin explains why the scenario with Trump's tariifs is very different to the tariifs imposed before the Great Depression.More important than Felix needing a fast win, Trump needs a fast win. As you said, he wants it, and that's what's more likely to move the needle on this thing IMO.
He has declared chaos is the new economic weapon of the US, which has scared the shit out of investors, angered allies and locked him into an escalating trade war with China. China, for their part, has used CRITICAL MINERALS as it's method for retaliation. He has thrown a lot of shit at the wall but still waiting for any of it to stick.
An agreement with DRC would allow Trump to waive around a big win that:
- his strategy on tariff negotiations is working
- his 'minerals-for-security' approach to foreign policy is working
- USA can still be preferred economic partner over CHINA
- USA doesn't need to be threatened by China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains
--- And as a little bonus after gutting foreign aid: that USA is still 'helping' poorer nations around the world.
I could be wrong and it happens and he doesn't really care, but it offers enough propoganda value to TrumpCo. that I'd be surprised if they're not looking to capitalise on it like this.
THIS IS TIME SENSITIVE TO THEM.
A chaos strategy like their tariff bonanza is NOT working until there's proof it DOES. Remember, the precedent for their tariff war lead America into the great depression, so it's a risky strategy. Every week that goes by where Trump has caused financial pain to citizens and destroyed trust with allies without anything tangible to show for it is incredibly damaging. The best argument republicans have is "oh but he wrote 'the art of the deal' so you just have to trust in the majesticalness of Trump'. But trust only last for so long when there's so much chaos.
So pretty much everyone has some sort of incentive to get a deal done prior to ICSID.
everyone - except us.
Our incentive is simply the cold, hard cash, and our position gets stronger as we progress through arbitration.
So pay-up mofos.
$12*
*(regardless what we get, I'm pretty sure once the dust has settled I'm gonna get a '$12' tattoo as a memento
Winenut
Go AVZ!
The only attraction of the DIV is if it's fully franked....meaning that 30% tax is already paid
If it's not fully franked it would be good at all IMO...especially if it's all in one income year
I'd prefer a share disposal event triggering the 50% CGT discount but we can only really run numbers once the detail of any potential deal is known
There may be many elements that come into play in any final arrangement....CGT discounts, scrip roll-over relief, dividends, franking credits all sorts, royalties........who knows
Hi Shire, as I mentioned the ROC% will be a relatively small component, especially if we manage to realise anywhere near full (or even half) value on the sale of the asset.
The ROC component is returned to SHs tax free, essentially you are distributing sunk costs to SHs, easy. The rest of the capital has been derived from the sale of asset (over and above the money you invested to buy and improve the asset). I'm tipping that the ROC component will be less than 5% of the total return to SHs.
So just as an example and theres a couple of big IFs (and completely hypothetical) - but IF we split the north in exchange for compo payment (say USD$500mill) and IF we realise a sale of the south (with all things considered for USD$3.5bill) we'd end up with USD$4bill = AUD$6bill
If our sunk costs were AUD$300mill (assuming 3.5bill SOI) the dist would look something like this:
5,700,000,000 unfranked divvy (unfranked as we've paid no tax in Australia to frank against)
300,000,000 ROC (untaxed)
Or
AUD$1.62 ps unfranked divvy (taxed at your marginal rate as income if held in personal name)
AUD$0.086cps ROC (untaxed)
Now, please don't shoot the messenger with the valuation assumptions, its purely hypothetical (add a zero to each line item for all i care). I want 12 bucks a share as much as anyone...
The only caveat on the above would be the taxation treatment of any awards for compensation - I'm not experienced with this scenario, but I would imagine that once its distributed, it would be taxed as income.
FYI, In the LLL example, they are returning the proceeds of the forced sale to Ganfeng in 2 tranches after paying local CGT and other liabilities. The first tranche was distributed exactly as above (different numbers tho). The company may propose an acquisition to SHs with the second tranche - they claim to have been in DD with several listed entities (i.e. PMT or WR1 as examples). If this was voted on favourably by SHs then an aquisition of the relevant company would take place and eventually the new co would re-list with the acquired company as its main asset / on going concern - SHs could then sell on market triggering a CGT event rather than receive an unfranked divvy that effectively counts as personal income. This takes a long time - think additional 12 months all up...
Hope this clarifies, and please seek your own advice as I'm on my 4th red....
Cheers!
Ashlee
Regular
Here is GROK’s take on profit distributions.
In the context of an Australian company, the **difference between a capital return** and an **unfranked dividend** lies in their nature, tax treatment, and purpose. Here's a concise explanation:
### 1. **Capital Return**
- **Definition**: A capital return (or return of capital) occurs when a company distributes part of its share capital back to shareholders, reducing the company's paid-up capital. It is not a profit distribution but a return of the shareholders' original investment.
- **Purpose**: Typically used when a company has excess capital, is winding down, or restructuring. It may occur after asset sales or when the company no longer needs the capital for operations.
- **Tax Treatment**:
- **Not taxable income**: A capital return is generally not treated as a dividend or income for tax purposes.
- **Capital Gains Tax (CGT) implications**: The return reduces the shareholder's cost base for their shares. If the return exceeds the cost base, the excess may trigger a capital gain, subject to CGT.
- **Franking credits**: Capital returns do not carry franking credits, as they are not dividends.
- **Example**: If you paid $10 for a share and receive a $2 capital return, your cost base for the share drops to $8. If the return exceeds $10, the excess is a capital gain.
### 2. **Unfranked Dividend**
- **Definition**: An unfranked dividend is a distribution of a company's profits to shareholders that does not carry franking credits. This typically happens when the company has not paid Australian corporate tax on the profits (e.g., profits from overseas operations or tax losses).
- **Purpose**: Represents a share of the company's after-tax profits distributed to shareholders as income.
- **Tax Treatment**:
- **Taxable income**: Unfranked dividends are included in the shareholder's assessable income and taxed at their marginal tax rate.
- **No franking credits**: Since no Australian corporate tax was paid on these profits, shareholders cannot offset their personal tax liability with franking credits.
- **Withholding tax**: For non-resident shareholders, unfranked dividends may be subject to dividend withholding tax (unless reduced by a tax treaty).
- **Example**: If you receive a $1,000 unfranked dividend and your marginal tax rate is 32.5%, you pay $325 tax on the dividend with no franking credit offset.
### Key Differences
| **Aspect** | **Capital Return** | **Unfranked Dividend** |
|---------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|
| **Nature** | Return of shareholder's original investment | Distribution of company profits |
| **Source** | Share capital or reserves | After-tax profits |
| **Tax Treatment** | Reduces share cost base; may trigger CGT | Taxable as income at marginal rate |
| **Franking Credits** | None | None |
| **Purpose** | Reduce excess capital or restructure | Share profits with shareholders |
| **Impact on Shares** | Reduces cost base; no direct income | No impact on share cost base; treated as income|
### Practical Notes
- **Shareholder Impact**: A capital return may reduce the value of your shares (as it lowers the company's capital), while an unfranked dividend is income but does not affect your share's cost base.
- **Company Decision**: Companies may choose a capital return to avoid tax implications for shareholders or an unfranked dividend when franking credits are unavailable.
- **Tax Advice**: Always consult a tax professional, as individual circumstances (e.g., holding period, residency status) can affect tax outcomes.
Got it, thanks again Powerage, very clear - four reds or not.
That does actually make me see the potential value in AVZ retaining part of the sale proceeds to invest into another project or to collect ongoing royalties, preserving the listed vehicle. This would give shareholders the option to sell shares later and potentially access the CGT discount, rather than being forced to take a large unfranked dividend taxed at marginal rates.
1. This guy is full of shit.
2. Even if he wants to make an argument the tariffs are 'different' to the ones preceding the great depression it doesn't in anyway invalidate my argument that they are still the closest analogue we have for what's happening today.
3. This guy is full of shit.
4. Even if none of the above are true its irrelevant to my main thesis which was:
Whatever the strategy or aims, Trumps actions are causing chaos, and that chaos can only last for so long before he needs to chalk up some clear wins.
Xerof
High Hopes 1994
5. This guy is full of shit.
oxxa23
Regular
Beware, the ato doesn't like people entering an account based pension for tax avoidance purposes... even thought that's a great benefit of it... so be careful about leaving entering account based pension til the last minute... could look very suss... not that I've ever heard of them actually pinging anyone...
But they certainly warn of it...
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