AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Retrobyte
Hates a beer
Frank
Top 20
Not a single mention of non-stop corruption by Congolese Govt elites (and their Chinese paymasters).
RHyNO
Regular
That guardian narrative is truely hilarious, under no circumstances could the country who has shit on its citizens by supporting corruption be accountable for shitting on its citizens by supporting corruption, it’s definitely white Christian males aged 45 and over that ruined everything by inventing math and ethics
Carlos Danger
Top 20
What are you basing the ‘3 months’ on?
Clearly not the ICSID procedural rules, 9card’s timeframes or Nigel’s comment at the AGM that it will last until late 2026 or early 2027
You smashed me in likes tho lmao
3 months deliberation
then court hands down findings
then awards (think of this as sentencing)
then appeals process (inevitable regardless of who's found to be in violation)
then liquidation of awards
If it goes the full process, we'll definitely be into 2026 (but for the record, I don't believe this will be allowed to proceed in June).
Also, (and my apologies if this sounds negative), we must remember that if all goes to plan, we'll be selling at asset level. This means it's highly likely that proceeds will get returned to SHs as non franked dividends after the exploitation of any relevant local tax breaks and an ATO class ruling (this takes another 3 months). The ROC% will be relatively small.
Unfortunately this is something that the majority of SHs won't care about given they are off shore entities). Forget share buy backs etc. The only way around it as i see it is if its a deal with a RIO whereby we take equity (highly unlikely) or a very small chance of relisting with a similar asset purchased from Manono sale funds (again highly unlikely and a ridiculous amount of red tape) - again majority of large SHs are based off shore and happy with cash.
I've just been through a very similar example with LLL / FFX (forced sale to the Chinese at asset level in Mali) and PSC (sold to Chinese at asset level in Zimb). My asshole has only just recovered after the ATO turned it into a butchers bin. (Although for PSC, I was a non resident so didn't pay any tax).
If you have enough in this (and its in your own name) and it pans out how I expect, its probably worth moving to Dubai and playing golf for 2 years in order to get the non tax residency status for Aus...
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Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.
If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.
I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.
Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!
It's hard to know but I think there are clues.Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.
If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.
I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.
Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!
- we know Kobold was sniffing around last year
- one we don't have to guess is when the DRC sent their 'minerals for security' 9ffer to the US
- Boulos was promoted to grand-poobah of African relations right before making a trip to DRC. He didn't go on a fact-finding mission, he's a closer there to work on getting a deal done.
These are all events with known dates that work well enough to set up an agreement prior to arbitration
Stockinvesting
Regular
Well laid out mate. Agreed.
FWIW, I can't see the USA taking their time on this.
Felix needs a fix. Fast. We all know he approached THEM , not the other way around.
He wants a quick fix and is prepared to sell the family jewels (Manono) to get it.
WANT THIS. They (Trump) will not like playing 2nd fiddle to anyone, Kobold, Arabs, Europe and definitely NOT the Chinese.I really believe a deal is not to far away.
GLTAH.
Hemicuda
Regular
Will it feel better or worse? after all this time of being fucked by the DRC and Chinese cunts, to turn around be proper fuckd by ATO,,, something to
Look fwd to,,,,
Only ones that don’t want a quick resolution are the lawyers, they making a killing ( I will add DLA Piper have been great for AVZ but will still make bank out if it )Well laid out mate. Agreed.
FWIW, I can't see the USA taking their time on this.
Felix needs a fix. Fast. We all know he approached THEM , not the other way around.
He wants a quick fix and is prepared to sell the family jewels (Manono) to get it.
I really believe a deal is not to far away.
GLTAH.
Frank
Top 20
China frets about its dependence on Africa’s resources as US muscles in
China has heavily invested to secure raw materials from African nations, but US accusations over those deals pose new risks
A leading Chinese industry association has warned the country risks becoming too dependent on raw materials from individual nations in Africa, as the continent becomes a battleground in an intensifying global tussle for resources.
China’s vast manufacturing sector is heavily reliant on African countries to supply several crucial materials, with Guinea emerging as a dominant supplier of bauxite – an aluminium ore that is essential to make everything from cars to electronics.
Ge Honglin, head of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said this dependence could become a strategic vulnerability during a visit to the West African nation on Saturday, as he called for greater efforts to secure the bauxite supply chain.
“Internationally, greater attention must be paid to the risks of overconcentration in certain countries, ensuring safer development and acquisition of overseas resources,” Ge said, according to an article posted on the association’s website.
China’s imports of bauxite soared to 141.6 million tonnes in 2023, with the country relying on imports for 86.1 per cent of its supplies of the ore, according to a research note published by Dongxing Securities last year.
And Guinea provided most those imports.
China’s bauxite imports from the West African country skyrocketed from 11.94 million tonnes in 2016 to 99.26 million tonnes in 2023, as Chinese industrial firms invested heavily in the nation.
Indonesia’s bauxite export ban, which came into force two years ago, has made China even more reliant on Guinea’s mines.
“The high concentration of bauxite imports in specific regions means that the supply from mining sources is increasingly vulnerable to potential event-driven risks,” said Dongxing Securities analyst Zhang Tianfeng in the report.
Meanwhile, China’s aggressive pursuit of critical minerals across Africa has alarmed Washington and sparked a global rare metals race on the continent.
On Monday, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent accused China of gaining foreign mining rights through “rapacious deals” in Latin America and Africa, and he vowed to prevent that during an interview with Bloomberg TV.
The United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have been negotiating a “multibillion” deal since early April that would trade access to minerals in exchange for security, according to US President Donald Trump’s top Africa envoy.
The DRC is the leading global producer of cobalt, a key mineral in the production of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles and smartphones. The country also holds significant reserves of gold, diamonds and copper.
China already has large interests in DRC cobalt and copper mines, with Chinese state-owned creditors approving 19 loan commitments worth about US$12.85 billion for related mining projects in the country between 2000 and 2021.
Why China is worried about its growing reliance on Africa’s resources
China has heavily invested to secure raw materials from African nations, but US accusations over those deals pose new risks.
sc.mp
Splitting the North for Compo ?
I am hoping the US tells DRC if you want protection for minerals that the North must be returned to Dathcom / AVZ.as Comminiere /Zijin have no legal right.
Highly unlikely that the corruption shown by Zijin that they will seek ICC.
Trump will certainly show no compensation towards China.
How can it be sold to Zijin again when they Comminiere / Zijin think they can and are proceeding to mine it.
Need a Presidential decree from Felix to suspend Zijin and Comminiere from Manono.
spot on and when this is all over I will really express myself on this forum
More important than Felix needing a fast win, Trump needs a fast win. As you said, he wants it, and that's what's more likely to move the needle on this thing IMO.Well laid out mate. Agreed.
FWIW, I can't see the USA taking their time on this.
Felix needs a fix. Fast. We all know he approached THEM , not the other way around.
He wants a quick fix and is prepared to sell the family jewels (Manono) to get it.
I really believe a deal is not to far away.
GLTAH.
He has declared chaos is the new economic weapon of the US, which has scared the shit out of investors, angered allies and locked him into an escalating trade war with China. China, for their part, has used CRITICAL MINERALS as it's method for retaliation. He has thrown a lot of shit at the wall but still waiting for any of it to stick.
An agreement with DRC would allow Trump to waive around a big win that:
- his strategy on tariff negotiations is working
- his 'minerals-for-security' approach to foreign policy is working
- USA can still be preferred economic partner over CHINA
- USA doesn't need to be threatened by China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains
--- And as a little bonus after gutting foreign aid: that USA is still 'helping' poorer nations around the world.
I could be wrong and it happens and he doesn't really care, but it offers enough propoganda value to TrumpCo. that I'd be surprised if they're not looking to capitalise on it like this.
THIS IS TIME SENSITIVE TO THEM.
A chaos strategy like their tariff bonanza is NOT working until there's proof it DOES. Remember, the precedent for their tariff war lead America into the great depression, so it's a risky strategy. Every week that goes by where Trump has caused financial pain to citizens and destroyed trust with allies without anything tangible to show for it is incredibly damaging. The best argument republicans have is "oh but he wrote 'the art of the deal' so you just have to trust in the majesticalness of Trump'. But trust only last for so long when there's so much chaos.
So pretty much everyone has some sort of incentive to get a deal done prior to ICSID.
everyone - except us.
Our incentive is simply the cold, hard cash, and our position gets stronger as we progress through arbitration.
So pay-up mofos.
$12*
*(regardless what we get, I'm pretty sure once the dust has settled I'm gonna get a '$12' tattoo as a memento
)Great couple of posts Powerage - very informative thank you.
Just thinking about the dividend distribution; wouldn’t a more beneficial way of distributing capital be a Return of Capital? That way, shareholders could access a capital gains tax deduction, providing the ATO okay it. I know Nigel has millions of reasons to find the most advantageous return of capital mechanism possible.
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Levin explains why the scenario with Trump's tariifs is very different to the tariifs imposed before the Great Depression.More important than Felix needing a fast win, Trump needs a fast win. As you said, he wants it, and that's what's more likely to move the needle on this thing IMO.
He has declared chaos is the new economic weapon of the US, which has scared the shit out of investors, angered allies and locked him into an escalating trade war with China. China, for their part, has used CRITICAL MINERALS as it's method for retaliation. He has thrown a lot of shit at the wall but still waiting for any of it to stick.
An agreement with DRC would allow Trump to waive around a big win that:
- his strategy on tariff negotiations is working
- his 'minerals-for-security' approach to foreign policy is working
- USA can still be preferred economic partner over CHINA
- USA doesn't need to be threatened by China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains
--- And as a little bonus after gutting foreign aid: that USA is still 'helping' poorer nations around the world.
I could be wrong and it happens and he doesn't really care, but it offers enough propoganda value to TrumpCo. that I'd be surprised if they're not looking to capitalise on it like this.
THIS IS TIME SENSITIVE TO THEM.
A chaos strategy like their tariff bonanza is NOT working until there's proof it DOES. Remember, the precedent for their tariff war lead America into the great depression, so it's a risky strategy. Every week that goes by where Trump has caused financial pain to citizens and destroyed trust with allies without anything tangible to show for it is incredibly damaging. The best argument republicans have is "oh but he wrote 'the art of the deal' so you just have to trust in the majesticalness of Trump'. But trust only last for so long when there's so much chaos.
So pretty much everyone has some sort of incentive to get a deal done prior to ICSID.
everyone - except us.
Our incentive is simply the cold, hard cash, and our position gets stronger as we progress through arbitration.
So pay-up mofos.
$12*
*(regardless what we get, I'm pretty sure once the dust has settled I'm gonna get a '$12' tattoo as a memento
Winenut
GO AVZ!!!!
The only attraction of the DIV is if it's fully franked....meaning that 30% tax is already paid
If it's not fully franked it would be good at all IMO...especially if it's all in one income year
I'd prefer a share disposal event triggering the 50% CGT discount but we can only really run numbers once the detail of any potential deal is known
There may be many elements that come into play in any final arrangement....CGT discounts, scrip roll-over relief, dividends, franking credits all sorts, royalties........who knows
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