AVZ Discussion 2022

[Stockinvesting]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-...donald-trump-want-access-to-critical-minerals

View attachment 82473

Cheers. Thanks.

 

[Doc]

I’m worried about the lack of winks lately….

 

[Mute22]

I’m worried about the lack of winks lately….

Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.

If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.

I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.

Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!

 

[Doc]

Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.

If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.

I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.

Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!

Yeah I’d say the first catalyst has to happen before anything moves with AVZ and that’s the US signing a deal. Kobold or anyone for that matter will not drop billions without an iron clad guarantee that the mine will get up and running.They’d have seen the absolute shit show AVZ has been in for years. They’ll know more too when ICSID starts as that’s all made public ( wont be a good look for the DRC ). They’d also want the security of the US deal sorting any shit fuckery cominieire/zijin would still try.
More of a wait I reckon, Easter next year?

 

[Spikerama]

Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.

If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.

I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.

Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!

Like I said last week or was it the week before.? I reckon we will still be talking about this at Christmas and well past page 3000.

 

[Flight996]

The Guardian view on Donald Trump’s Congo deal: mineral riches for protection

Faced with regional chaos and shrinking options, Kinshasa seeks terms of trade that echo the old extractive order in modern disguise

The vilest scramble for loot that has ever disfigured the history of human conscience” is how Joseph Conrad described colonial-era concessions granted to private companies for Congo’s natural resources in Heart of Darkness. Under Donald Trump, that scramble may be back. If news reports are right, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is offering the US a blunt deal: minerals for military help – a slice of sovereignty traded for a shot at stability.

The concern is this isn’t a return, it’s a sequel. For three decades, Washington supported Joseph-Désiré Mobutu, a cold war ally and brutal dictator who looted the Congo until his 1997 fall. That history of power politics still casts a long shadow. The Trump administration openly favours muscle over diplomacy. Fadhel Kaboub, an associate professor of economics at Denison University, notes that Biden-era talk of partnering for clean energy has been shelved, with the US driven less by green goals than by copper and cobalt for missiles and microchips.


The logic is bleak but clear. Since 1996, the Congo’s wars have drawn in foreign armies and proxies, leaving over 5.5 million dead. The DRC faces a worsening security crisis driven by armed groups like M23, allegedly backed by Rwanda and other regional powers. Western governments lament the violence, but focus on securing access to minerals vital to their industries. Kinshasa, seeing appeals to multilateral justice achieve little, has turned to dealmaking. If dependency is inevitable, it might as well be leveraged.

The DRC’s leadership is not naive. They know Mr Trump sees Africa not as a partner but as a warehouse of strategic materials, and Ukraine as proof that he will turn weakness into American gain. They know China won’t send troops – citing non-interference – even as its firms dominate Congolese mining. With Russia and Gulf states offering assistance, Kinshasa pushes for US bases to guard “strategic resources” – like cobalt, 70% of which comes from the DRC and is essential to smartphones and Nato’s defence industry. Congo may want boots; Washington prefers business.

The proposed deal with the US seems desperate and strategic: security support in exchange for mining rights. Don’t call it protection money. After Mr Trump’s Africa envoy signalled a deal was coming, the DRC repatriated three Americans tied to a failed coup, and a tin mine, which is controlled by US investors, began reopening as M23 rebels pulled back – a fragile win in a volatile landscape. Kinshasa hopes either to have Washington broker a peace that forces the rebels into retreat or to gain the firepower to crush them outright.

It might also unlock IMF funding and widen access to western capital markets. But at what cost? The likeliest outcome is that the DRC will receive just enough to remain dependent. Its mineral sector will be dominated by foreign firms, its fiscal autonomy eroded by conditional loans and its economy locked into the old pattern of subservience – supplier of cheap inputs, consumer of expensive outputs.

Calling this colonialism isn’t quite right. Empires ruled by decree, with no pretence of consent. Today’s coercion is more subtle: a sovereign state cornered, at a weak moment, into accepting colonial-style terms without soldiers or flags. The tools are different – security deals, trade exemptions, private investment. But the logic is familiar. The irony is that this is being pursued voluntarily by a government with few alternatives. What will history say about that?

The Guardian conveniently omits the DRC's history of egregious corruption that infests every decision, every transaction and negatively impacts the entire population. The Guardian also fails to mention China's role in enabling this corruption. There is little point in engaging in non-critical analysis or lamenting the DRC's desperate situation without at least recognising the root cause of why the DRC is the most aid-dependent nation on earth, and where approximately 75% of its citizens live in poverty.

 

[ptlas]

Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.

If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.

I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.

Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!

Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.

Since at least late 2022.
Probably some time before then.

 

[Goat]

ICSID will have to finalise before any deal is penned. The US gov will want a finalisation of the proceedings before determining how much to pay and who really are the bad eggs in all of this. There's no way charges will drop as this has gone up through 2 court systems and there won't be a "sorry, we'll just chuck it all away and take some money and be ok".

As for compensation, AVZ stated some specific figures but there's also the claim of reputation damage which could potentially incur billions of penalties. Whether there is a claim thrown in there for loss of income and potential income could also be in the billions.

$12 sounds about right anyways. lol

 

[Dijon101]

Like I said last week or was it the week before.? I reckon we will still be talking about this at Christmas and well past page 3000.

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

 

[Goldenboy]

ICSID will have to finalise before any deal is penned. The US gov will want a finalisation of the proceedings before determining how much to pay and who really are the bad eggs in all of this. There's no way charges will drop as this has gone up through 2 court systems and there won't be a "sorry, we'll just chuck it all away and take some money and be ok".

As for compensation, AVZ stated some specific figures but there's also the claim of reputation damage which could potentially incur billions of penalties. Whether there is a claim thrown in there for loss of income and potential income could also be in the billions.

$12 sounds about right anyways. lol

$12

 

[Scoota30]

Specific Claims:
* USD 6.243 billion to compensate for the complete destruction of the value of the Manono Project.
* USD 2.081 billion to Dathcom for losses related to the same destruction.

6.243 + 2.081 = 8.324

6.243 / 8.324 = 75%

2.081 / 8.324 = 25%

Are the 10b bros ok?

Only one thing you are forgetting out of that equation Carlos - at the moment the CCP owns Australia economy, therefore any sale of Manono to the US will actually be captured under their 125% tarrifs to the US.

6.243 with a 125% Tariff actually = 14.04675 Billion USD

 

[BEISHA]

Hey mate thanks for bringing this Tax policy to my attention, I didn't know about it and so just looked it up.
It's very interesting and it makes me wonder.

So I'd only pay 15% tax on a super contribution instead of the max of 45%, or if we can get the CGD, 22.5%, which on your hypothetical $100,000 contribution, means I keep an extra $30,000, or $7,500 (if CGD) but that all goes into my super.

Out of $100,000 untaxed income, in one case I get either $55,000 or $77,500 (CGD) of that in my pocket,
OR my super gets $85,000 of it.

Interesting decision to make!
But thanks again for bringing this to my attention

P.S. You can see how much unused concessional contributions you are eligible to contribute by visiting MyGov, ATO.

 

[Spikerama]

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

Dijon, I really have no idea mate. Except that court cases always take faaaaaar longer than anyone, besides the lawyers, ever expects. And cases of this magnitude take even way longer that that.

There's always curve balls chucked in and as we know the DRC, aided by the corrupt Chinese have mastered the art of tossing curve balls. So I've parked any expectations at this point.

 

[PhatCatz]

Where's China in all of this? Surely, they aren't just sitting around with dick in hand?

 

[BEISHA]

I’m worried about the lack of winks lately….

 

[PhatCatz]

Trump launches critical minerals probe to weigh new tariffs

The administration could consider levies on critical minerals, following other sector-specific tariffs imposed on steel and aluminium, automobiles and car parts.

www.afr.com

The findings will be damning and I suspect something Trump won't appreciate. China controls that narrative.

Goes without saying, but this just further drives the need for Manono to stay in western hands.

Also another item from the AFR.

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/how-china-plans-to-cripple-the-us-in-trade-war-20250415-p5lrxc

 

[Carlos Danger]

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

2027 at the earliest

 

[Carlos Danger]

ICSID will have to finalise before any deal is penned. The US gov will want a finalisation of the proceedings before determining how much to pay and who really are the bad eggs in all of this. There's no way charges will drop as this has gone up through 2 court systems and there won't be a "sorry, we'll just chuck it all away and take some money and be ok".

As for compensation, AVZ stated some specific figures but there's also the claim of reputation damage which could potentially incur billions of penalties. Whether there is a claim thrown in there for loss of income and potential income could also be in the billions.

$12 sounds about right anyways. lol

KoBold are keen to get a deal done before ICSID finalises. Whether AVZ accept the discount offer or push ahead to 2027 and beyond for enforcement is up in the air. But the gringos do not care about the ICSID outcome and specifically stated that all legal cases need to be dropped for the deal.

Which 2 court systems are you referring to?

If you are talking about ICSID and ICC they are looking at different issues and have vastly different rules as Cominiere humiliatingly found out when trying to have the partial award at the ICC thrown out on the basis that the ICSID excluded the north from the interim measures imo

 

[Powerage]

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.
Currently we have 3 days set aside with a 4th if we need it, there will be no dragging it out on either side once it starts.
The thing with commercial courts (as apposed to criminal) is that theres no "gotcha moments" - i.e. in the process of discovery and approval of single expert witnesses etc, pretty much everything is known prior to the start of proceedings and laid out before the court.
Each side then gets to argue their case on the known facts previously presented before the court (this is why the discovery and subpoena process etc takes so long). Essentially, theres no new evidence / documentation / witnesses brought forward during the proceedings.

My thoughts for what they're worth are that neither side want this to go through to its finality at ICSID - the DRC will already know what's in front of the panel (including all of the likely references that point towards various levels of corruption etc), hence why their trying a last ditch effort to have the case set aside on jurisdictional grounds - they'd be mad if they didn't try it. I imagine the US on the other hand won't want this to surface as the more dirty laundry that's officially aired the harder it is for the US to officially engage (think restrictions around the Magnitsky act as a a start - which covers corruption along with human rights abuses etc).

I reckon we'll get a term sheet with CPs around the concurrent reinstatement of 13359 in its entirety, splitting the north for compo, selling the south to US co. and dropping all of the cases. I reckon we'll get this within the next 3 weeks.

For what its worth Nigel's stopped responding to my calls, which in the past has preceded and announcement - but seriously, I wouldn't read too much into this. We can only hope.

Good luck to everyone - Ive been in this since 2016, its been one helluva ride, but theres some serious quality on this forum that's helped keep me sane. Hopefully see you all on the other side.

Cheers,
Powerage.

 

[Mute22]

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.
Currently we have 3 days set aside with a 4th if we need it, there will be no dragging it out on either side once it starts.
The thing with commercial courts (as apposed to criminal) is that theres no "gotcha moments" - i.e. in the process of discovery and approval of single expert witnesses etc, pretty much everything is known prior to the start of proceedings and laid out before the court.
Each side then gets to argue their case on the known facts previously presented before the court (this is why the discovery and subpoena process etc takes so long). Essentially, theres no new evidence / documentation / witnesses brought forward during the proceedings.

My thoughts for what they're worth are that neither side want this to go through to its finality at ICSID - the DRC will already know what's in front of the panel (including all of the likely references that point towards various levels of corruption etc), hence why their trying a last ditch effort to have the case set aside on jurisdictional grounds - they'd be mad if they didn't try it. I imagine the US on the other hand won't want this to surface as the more dirty laundry that's officially aired the harder it is for the US to officially engage (think restrictions around the Magnitsky act as a a start - which covers corruption along with human rights abuses etc).

I reckon we'll get a term sheet with CPs around the concurrent reinstatement of 13359 in its entirety, splitting the north for compo, selling the south to US co. and dropping all of the cases. I reckon we'll get this within the next 3 weeks.

For what its worth Nigel's stopped responding to my calls, which in the past has preceded and announcement - but seriously, I wouldn't read too much into this. We can only hope.

Good luck to everyone - Ive been in this since 2016, its been one helluva ride, but theres some serious quality on this forum that's helped keep me sane. Hopefully see you all on the other side.

Cheers,
Powerage.

See you Easter 2026!

But seriously, appreciate your thoughts and let’s hope it all comes together this way for a clean resolution for all involved. Nothing good for any party if this goes through the courts.

Getting really sick of 2-minute noodles.