AVZ Discussion 2022
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Mute22
Regular
5 questions pour comprendre l’intérêt accru pour le lithium congolais malgré la baisse des prix
En pourparlers avec Kinshasa pour une potentielle entrée sur le projet Manono, Rio Tinto rejoint la liste des compagnies intéressées par le lithium
5 questions to understand the increased interest in Congolese lithium despite falling prices
(Ecofin Agency) - In talks with Kinshasa for a potential entry into the Manono project, Rio Tinto joins the list of companies interested in Congolese lithium. If the information, reported late last week by Bloomberg, is confirmed, it would be a strong signal, counter to the current market trend, revealing a strategic shift in the global competition for critical metals.
Why the interest now, when prices are falling?
Since 2023, the global lithium market has seen a significant price decline. For example, the price of lithium carbonate fell from a record high of $81,360 per tonne in November 2022 to $20,782 per tonne in February 2024, then fell to less than $11,000 last September and less than $10,000 in March 2025. This decline is believed to be due to oversupply, while demand is growing at a more moderate pace. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global lithium production reached 194,000 tonnes in 2023, an increase of 81% compared to 2021. However, demand increased by only 63% over the same period, reaching 165,000 tonnes, a slowdown that analysts explain by several factors including a buildup of inventories and less dynamic growth than expected in sales of electric vehicles.
This market context has already slowed several projects in Africa, such as Atex in Ivory Coast or Ewoyaa in Ghana, according to our previous publications. Yet, despite this, several major companies are making progress on the continent. In Namibia, Chile's SQM, the world's second-largest lithium producer, confirmed in March 2025 a gradual investment of up to $40 million. Rio Tinto could follow this same logic if its interest in the Manono project in the DRC is confirmed. While the timing may seem surprising, it could actually be part of a long-term strategy that would consist of securing major assets for the energy transition now, anticipating a rebound in demand around 2030.
Congolese lithium: why is it generating so much interest despite the potential risks?
The Manono project (located in a lithium-rich region) is among the world's largest untapped deposits, with approximately 400 million tonnes of resources (grading 1.65% lithium), according to estimates by Australia's AVZ Minerals, which has been in dispute for several months with the DRC and the state-owned company Cominière over the southern portion of the permit. The northern portion of the project is currently managed by China's Zijin Mining. In January, Zijin confirmed its intention to begin production as early as 2026, which would make the DRC Africa's third-largest lithium producer, after Zimbabwe and Mali, which recently commissioned two mines (Goulamina and Bougouni), as we reported in February.
According to several concordant sources, it is the southern part that is attracting other players, including the American company KoBold Metals, backed by Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, which proposed in January a shareholding arrangement favoring the Congolese state (and allowing it to settle the dispute with AVZ) in order to develop the deposit. Discussions between the Congolese state and Rio Tinto are reportedly focusing on this same deposit. This degree of competition, despite the uncertain climate due to the dispute, could reflect a desire on the part of these companies to position themselves before the cards are reshuffled.
What geostrategic role does the DRC play in the lithium market?
Interest in Manono goes beyond purely industrial logic, as the DRC is far from being the country with the highest lithium reserves , with the ranking dominated by Chile, Australia, Argentina, and China. It is part of a broader geopolitical dynamic: the desire of Western countries to reduce their dependence on China, which controls more than 60% of global lithium refining, according to data from the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC). The DRC, already the world's leading cobalt producer, now appears to be a strategic location for balancing supply chains. In addition to the presence of China's Zijin Mining on the northern part of the project, KoBold Metals' ambitions come in the context of announced discussions between Kinshasa and Washington on a potential mineral agreement in exchange for security support, as revealed in an article by Ecofin earlier this month. The potential arrival of Rio Tinto in the southern part, in this already tense landscape, could constitute a new discreet front between rival powers on critical metals.
What is Rio Tinto really looking for in the DRC?
Rio Tinto is pursuing a global strategy of integration into the lithium value chain. After acquiring Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion in 2024, the group has consolidated its presence in Argentina and Serbia, and signed a partnership with Rwanda to exploit strategic minerals, including lithium. The interest in Manono is therefore consistent with its logic of expanding into high-potential assets, even in complex jurisdictions.
Africa is emerging as a new frontier between relatively low entry costs, abundant resources, and a growing political will to develop critical metals. For Rio Tinto, which is already known on the continent for its presence in other minerals such as iron ore in Guinea, the timing is strategic. Entering Manono today would secure a world-class asset before it becomes more contested—an anticipation that few players have the means or the will to take on in the current cycle trough.
What should the DRC do in the face of this growing interest?
For Kinshasa, the interest of Rio Tinto, KoBold, Zijin, and AVZ represents a rare opportunity. But for it to become a strategic lever, the ambiguity must be resolved. The dispute between Cominière and AVZ, which has already led to a $42.4 million fine against the state by the International Chamber of Commerce, is weighing on the country's credibility. The DRC must clarify rights, secure investors, and structure a vision for the value chain.
Other countries are moving forward. Mali, thanks to Goulamina and Bougouni, is on the verge of becoming a leader in West Africa. Zimbabwe is already investing in local processing.
The DRC has the assets to follow this path. According to UK Aid and BloombergNEF, the country has a comparative advantage in refining costs. However, it must focus on a coherent industrial strategy, not on ad hoc arrangements or endless legal arbitrations.
By 2050, global demand for lithium could increase 75-fold, according to the DMCC. Africa could supply 12% by 2033, according to Benchmark, compared to 4% in 2023. The DRC can claim a major share of this market. But between the promise of the subsoil and the benefits of the value chain, the crucial step of governance remains to be taken.
Louis-Nino Kansoun
Read also:
KentCStrait
Regular
Any buyout under USD $10 billion is a joke.
That’s USD $2.76 per share, or AUD $4.14 at today’s rates. And that’s conservative, assuming Manono is in production — which it would’ve been already if not for the disgraceful interference we’ve been subjected to.
And on top of that the DRC government must forfeit any claim to tax receipts from the buyout. That’s not a request — it’s compensation for years of obstruction, deceit, and the destruction of shareholder value.
They don’t get to profit after everything these corrupt bastards have pulled.
Rechnerhand
Regular
Roche Dure ist not the single world's largest hard rock lithium deposit.
Roche Dure is not located in the North Kivu Province ...
What an intro ... LoL
Mr Inappropriate
Regular
Unsavoury language warning.
Spikerama
Regular
Of course mate. Absolutely! And I would be the first to buy you the most revered bottle of wine on the planet if I was a T20 and it worked out like that. But I ain't and I reckon they're probably just as fed up as we are by now and would rather unlock whatever they can get within reason by now so they can go and put that money to good use.
Point being, it wont be up to us or how we vote. It will be up to the T20 and what they collectively decide and their appetite for a smooth and easy exit. Kind of like one of those perfect gliding bowel movements that had been causing you pain before you could even go.
Carlos Danger
Top 20
It’s hard to see the Chinese interests voting for the gringos taking the south if CATH gets sidelined which is roughly 30% of the active registry even if the deal involves Zijin 'retaining' the north. Shareholders hold great power of the swing section in the middle vote as evidenced by the frantic ring around by management securing support before the 2023 AGM MMGA coup attempt. So I think collectively we will have a substantial say if it is put to us. Will be very interesting to see what management consider best value.
I've asked the following question twice with no response. What would the Chinese holders do in a vote? Could they sabotage it or possibly assist us if gringos low ball enabling a situation that sees CATH ride in? What sway do these T20 Chinese holders have over the board?
I think it should be fleshed out a bit and better understood. I get that money is money and you'd think most would vote for the highest bid but it's a tad more difficult to understand when you have political influence operating in the background by good old Xi.
WOW just had a chance to read this. Wildest article I'll read for the week hands down. Kudos to you some random chinese author. It does seem to have a sense of "backing in AVZ" which was nice I guess?
Loved the bits about secret back room deals by Rio and Kobold to steal Manono from AVZ, KoBold undertaking some sort of colonization of the region, USA supplying DRC with F-35 'parts' for its 'defence for minerals' scheme, and the 12 groups of militia supplied by the US just appearing from thin air 50km from Manono....
Best part of all is definitely laying blame on the regions instability on 30%+ increases in International lithium prices! The funniest shit I've read all day. Don't worry about the ingrained corruption, brown paper bags, at all... no it's lithium prices that's the bane of the DRC.
Remark
Top 20
The best part is that the DRC don't have any F35's - mere details the author missed I guess?
BRICK
Where’s Zeebot 😶🌫️
The planes maybe they could buy 2 or 3, but you gotta have pilots who can actually fly them as well. No way they could even have the ground supportThe best part is that the DRC don't have any F35's - mere details the author missed I guess?
View attachment 80911
Where is the Chinese military hardware ??
That’s more likely
Frank
Top 20
Wonder who reported me to the Fun Police for Profanity
*I only have one thing to say your Honor
Remark
Top 20
Probably Tolate, it's having a bad dayWonder who reported me to the Fun Police for Profanity
View attachment 80915
*I only have one thing to say your Honor
View attachment 80916
Thompson is the Weekend Australian journo who first reported on Trump's support for AVZ, re mineral/security talks.
As for Thompson's $1.5b figure, someone suggested that it appears to be guided by CATHs recent purchase price for 30%. Too funny.
Frank
Top 20
5 questions to understand increased interest in Congolese lithium despite falling prices
(Ecofin Agency) - In talks with Kinshasa for a potential entry on the Manono project, Rio Tinto joins the list of companies interested in Congolese lithium. If the information, reported last week by Bloomberg, is confirmed, it would be a strong signal, against the current market trend, which reveals a strategic shift in global competition for critical metals.Why this interest now, when prices are falling?
Since 2023, the world market for lithium has experienced a significant decline in prices.
By way of illustration, the price of lithium carbonate rose from a record of 81,360 dollars per ton in November 2022 to 20,782 dollars per ton in February 2024, and then fell to less than 11,000 dollars last September and less than 10,000 dollars in March 2025.
This decline is reportedly due to oversupply, while demand is increasing at a more moderate pace.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global lithium production reached 194,000 tonnes in 2023, an increase of 81% compared to 2021.
However, demand increased by only 63% over the same period, reaching 165 000 tonnes, a slowdown that analysts explain by several factors, including accumulation of stocks and less dynamic growth in sales of electric vehicles.
This market context has already slowed down several projects in Africa, such as Atex in Côte d’Ivoire or Ewoyaa in Ghana, according to our previous publications.
Yet, despite this, several major companies are advancing their pawns on the continent.
In Namibia, the world's second largest lithium producer, Chilean SQM, confirmed in March 2025 a gradual investment of up to 40 million dollars.
Rio Tinto could be followed by the same logic if its interest in the Manono project in the DRC is confirmed.
If, on the air, the timing is surprising, it could actually be part of a long-term strategy of securing major assets for the energy transition now, anticipating a rebound in demand towards 2030.
Congolese lithium: why does it attract so much interest despite the potential risks?
The Manono project (which is in a lithium-rich region) is among the largest untapped deposits in the world, with around 400 million tonnes of resources, according to estimates by the Australian AVZ Minerals, which has been in dispute for several months with the DRC and the public company Cominière on the southern part of the licence.
The northern part of the project is now managed by the Chinese Zijin Mining.
In January, he confirmed his intention to start production as early as 2026, making the DRC the third largest producer of lithium, after zimbabwe and Mali, which recently commissioned two mines (Goulamina and Bougouni), as we reported in February.
According to several consistent sources, it was the southern part that attracted other actors, including the American company KoBold Metals, supported by Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, that proposed in January a shareholder-oriented set of the Congolese state (and allowing it to settle the dispute with AVZ) in order to develop the deposit.
Discussions between the Congolese State and Rio Tinto would focus on the same deposit.
This degree of competition, despite the uncertain climate due to the dispute, could reflect a willingness on the part of these companies to position themselves before the cards are reshuffled.
What geostrategic role does the DRC play in the lithium market?
Interest in Manono goes beyond the industrial logic alone, as the DRC is far from being the country with the best housing of lithium reserves, the ranking being dominated by Chile, Australia, Argentina, and China.
It is part of a broader geopolitical dynamic: Western countries’ desire to reduce their dependence on China, which controls more than 60% of global lithium refining, according to data from the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC).
The DRC, the world’s largest cobalt producer, now appears to be a strategic field for balancing supply chains.
In addition to the presence of the Chinese Zijin Mining on the northern part of the project, KoBold Metals’ ambitions come in the context of discussions announced between Kinshasa and Washington on a potential mineral agreement against security support, as revealed in an Ecofin article earlier this month.
The potential arrival of Rio Tinto on the southern part, in this already tense landscape, could be a new discreet front between rival powers over critical metals.
What is Rio Tinto really looking for in the DRC?
Rio Tinto pursues a global strategy for integration into the lithium value chain.
After buying Arcadium Lithium for 6.7 billion dollars in 2024, the group consolidated its presence in Argentina, Serbia, and signed a partnership with Rwanda to exploit strategic minerals including lithium.
The interest in Manono is therefore consistent with its logic of expansion towards high-potential assets, even in complex jurisdictions.
Africa is emerging as a new frontier between relatively low entry costs, albeit abundant resources, and a growing political will to value critical metals.
For Rio Tinto, which is already known on the continent for its presence on other minerals such as iron ore in Guinea, the time is strategic.
Entering Manono today would secure a world-class asset before it becomes more contested – an anticipation that few actors have the means or the will to meet in the current cycle trough.
For Kinshasa, the interest of Rio Tinto, KoBold, Zijin and AVZ is a rare opportunity. But if it is to become a strategic lever, we must get rid of the blur.
The dispute between Cominière and AVZ, which has already led to a government condemnation at 42.4 million dollars by the International Chamber of Commerce, weighs on the country’s credibility.
The DRC needs to clarify rights, secure investors, and structure a vision on the value chain.
Other countries are moving forward. Mali, thanks to Goulamina and Bougouni, is becoming a leader in West Africa.
It is already investing in local transformation. The DRC has the assets to follow this path.
According to UK Aid and BloombergNEF, the country has a comparative advantage over refining costs. However, it must be based on a coherent industrial strategy, not on time-bound one-off arrangements or legal arbitrage.
By 2050, global demand for lithium could increase 75-fold according to the DMCC.
Africa could provide 12% by 2033 by 2033, compared to 4% in 2023.
The DRC is eligible for a major part of this market. But between the subsoil’s promises and the benefits of the value chain, the crucial stage of governance remains to be taken.
Louis-Nino Kansoun
Frank
Top 20
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