AVZ Discussion 2022

[Frank]

x.com

x.com

 

[pow4ade]

ICSID yet to confirm our fees being paid:

 

[Frank]

You flatter me count, i am just a aussie battler like everyone else here, just trying to do my bit to provide some information to this forum which is a little bit more informed than the social media outlets.

And the only way you can get that is by attending AGMs and rubbing shoulders with the inner sanctum and collecting whatever non sensitive crumb that passes your way, thats the only reputation i have, dont shoot the messenger.

I asked the question, the answer was affirmative.

I was told that a formal announcement was going to drop in early January, i informed the forum and guess what happened 24 hrs later ?

Get the drift ?

But for all the nervous nellies that still have doubts whether arbitration fees have been paid or not and AVZ are going in blind faith with CATH, just remember this, Nigel and the BOD are fully aware that Cath have hopped from one camp to another, fully aware of the dodgy practice of a certain member of Maga to acquire 57 million shares from desperate long term holders that lost the faith, fully aware of all the dodgy shit that has come their way via Cominiere, Zijin , Dathomir and i can assure everyone here that in no way, will AVZ be dropping the ball until that CATH RESTRUCTURE DEAL is achieved in FULL with crack lawyers DLA PIPER going over the fine print and crossing every T and dotting every I.

Clearly, the LOCKE deal announcement which was made just prior to the AGM was just insurance until they forced CATHs hand and ratified a deal. No locke funds were utilised, so one has to assume Cath funds were used to pay the arbitration fees instead.

AVZ remains committed to fighting for its legal rights for the benefit of its shareholders, CATH and its DRC stakeholders and to advance the Manono Project to the benefit of all stakeholders.”

The above statement pretty much says it all, read between the lines folks!

I had one on one chats with all bod members at the November AGM, they were all weary from the constant shit they have all been dealt, but at the same time, had the eye of the tiger, eyes on the prize, they are battle hardened and wont be fucked over again until that prize has been achieved.

Just a matter of time and more patience, which is pretty tough considering its been 992 days since we have been in suspension.......right @Mute22 ?

AVZ remains committed to fighting for its legal rights for the benefit of its shareholders, CATH and its DRC stakeholders and to advance the Manono Project to the benefit of all stakeholders.”

x.com

x.com

 

[hedrox]

When you ask google if my AVZ shares worth anything....thats the answer..

 

[Xerof]

When you ask google if my AVZ shares worth anything....thats the answer..

View attachment 76899

Must have been deep seek. Chatgpt reckons it’s $12

 

[Mute22]

Must have been deep seek. Chatgpt reckons it’s $12

1. Key Assumptions (Updated):
   
   1. Annual Production: Assume 700,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually, containing approximately 6 percent lithium oxide. This equates to approximately 96,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per year.
   2. Mine Life: 20 years, based on a 400 million tonne resource.
   3. Lithium Price: 25,000 US dollars per tonne (long-term average for LCE, reflecting potential future price normalization).
   4. Operating Costs (OpEx): 4,000 US dollars per tonne of LCE, higher to reflect additional costs for operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
   5. Capital Expenditure (CapEx): 600 million US dollars (initial development costs based on recent estimates for similar projects).
   6. Discount Rate: 12 percent (to account for geopolitical and operational risks).
   7. Shares Outstanding: 3.5 billion shares.
      
2. Steps to Refine Valuation:
   
   1. Annual Revenue
      Annual revenue equals annual production multiplied by lithium price.
      96,000 tonnes multiplied by 25,000 US dollars per tonne equals 2.4 billion US dollars per year.
   2. Annual Operating Costs
      Annual operating costs equal annual production multiplied by operating cost per tonne.
      96,000 tonnes multiplied by 4,000 US dollars per tonne equals 384 million US dollars per year.
   3. Annual Cash Flow
      Annual cash flow equals revenue minus operating costs.
      2.4 billion US dollars minus 384 million US dollars equals 2.016 billion US dollars per year.
   4. Present Value of Cash Flows (Discounted)
      Using a 12 percent discount rate and a 20-year project life:
      Present value of cash flows equals annual cash flow multiplied by discount factor.
      Discount factor for a 12 percent rate over 20 years is approximately 7.47.
      2.016 billion US dollars multiplied by 7.47 equals 15.06 billion US dollars.
   5. Adjust for CapEx
      Subtract upfront capital expenditure.
      15.06 billion US dollars minus 600 million US dollars equals 14.46 billion US dollars.
   6. Per Share Value
      Value per share equals adjusted present value divided by shares outstanding.
      14.46 billion US dollars divided by 3.5 billion shares equals 4.13 US dollars per share.
      
3. Final Valuation
   The fair value per share for AVZ is estimated at USD 4.13, or approximately AUD 6.35 (using an exchange rate of 1 USD = 1.54 AUD).
   
   I would settle for 6.35 AUD per share.

 

[Xerof]

@Mute22

Don’t forget the tin

 

[Retrobyte]

@Mute22

Don’t forget the tin

 

[Retrobyte]

 

[Doc]

View attachment 76903

 

[whales]

@Mute22

Don’t forget the tin

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

 

[whales]

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

Amovatio​

157 Posts.
1,765
Date:14/01/25Time:13:49:36Post #:77398366

Guys,
There is nothing in the announcement which suggests AVZ has dropped the litigation because of negotiations with the DRC. What was stated is that AVZ has a revised JV and new funding arrangement with CATH and no longer needs to draw upon the Locke Litigation funding facility.

Lets not forget who is funding and running the DRC's legal process. The corrupt Zijin Mining Group and its lawyers who have been collaboratively working with Cominiere. This bunch of criminals don't get a seat at the negotiation table with CATH, AVZ and the DRC Govt.

The restructured partnership with CATH is the window for the DRC to accelerate the development of the Manono project as well as validate AVZ's legal claims and strategy. The DRC wants to build the Mine and get this into production in 2026. This new arrangement is the only way of achieving this. The Litigation process will delay this indefinitely and be enormously costly to the DRC along with the ongoing demise in their reputation.

Also, to cancel the Arbitration process would be to allow Cominiere and the DRC to walk away without any penalties being imposed. At the very least the $Millions they owe us should be an integral part of any negotiation up and until the final date (target date Feb 7) by which the fees are required to be paid for the ICSID Tribunal hearing, scheduled for June.

The Pre completion funding agreement stipulates the Drawdowns are scheduled by end of January. This is for the Litigation process. AVZ and CATH are committed to moving forward with this process if this is needed to get action to take place. The completion of the drawdowns is scheduled in December 2026 as part of the funding agreement. This is firmly stated. There is no compromise on this strategy.
So the fines which have been increasing each day on the DRC, and now amount to in excess of $70M are not going to be waived.
The DRC needs to get its act together swiftly before the end of January and advance the negotiations to grant the Mining Licence to Dathcom (AVZi) now or risk it all at the ICSID Arbitration hearing. It is the only way the Manono Project (area covered by PR 13359) is going to get off the ground and be operational before 2027. Zijin will definitely not be part of this outcome.

 

[SilentOne]

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

Whales,

I dont think a miracle will be required and certainly not the second coming thats for sure.

Its amazing what the US Treasury can achieve at the push of a button and also what the ICSID/ICC can do.

No miracle is required if Felix wants to keep what he has in overseas banks. Its called self-interest/preservation.

Regards,

SilentOne

 

[Scoota30]

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

Whales,

I dont think a miracle will be required and certainly not the second coming thats for sure.

Its amazing what the US Treasury can achieve at the push of a button and also what the ICSID/ICC can do.

No miracle is required if Felix wants to keep what he has in overseas banks. Its called self-interest/preservation.

Regards,

SilentOne

This current US administration will end up getting us over the line IMO. Not sure when, but all of the ducks are starting to line up in our favour and all of Felix's ducks are turning into pineapples!

 

[wombat74]

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

Why the change of heart whales ?

"Most important now is CATH provides a major criteria in DATHCOM receiving a mining license .
Whether it is only for Roche Dure or Zijin pay a fair price for Carrier ??
Very positive for AVZ and its shareholders. .
Now when will a mining license be granted before court arbitratration ?" whales 9/01/2025

 

[ptlas]

@Mute22

Don’t forget the tin

Wasn’t there tantalum aswell?
It's that long ago, I barely recall the details but seen to remember that there were complications around it's monetisation.
Back to US$10+ with lithium price rises.

 

[GuruDukun]

Anyone got tiktok?

Noticed there is an account for Manono Lithium



I'm not downloading the app (I'm not 16) but others might be keen to have a browse.

 

[Carlos Danger]

1. Key Assumptions (Updated):
   1. Annual Production: Assume 700,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually, containing approximately 6 percent lithium oxide. This equates to approximately 96,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per year.
   2. Mine Life: 20 years, based on a 400 million tonne resource.
   3. Lithium Price: 25,000 US dollars per tonne (long-term average for LCE, reflecting potential future price normalization).
   4. Operating Costs (OpEx): 4,000 US dollars per tonne of LCE, higher to reflect additional costs for operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
   5. Capital Expenditure (CapEx): 600 million US dollars (initial development costs based on recent estimates for similar projects).
   6. Discount Rate: 12 percent (to account for geopolitical and operational risks).
   7. Shares Outstanding: 3.5 billion shares.
2. Steps to Refine Valuation:
   1. Annual Revenue
      Annual revenue equals annual production multiplied by lithium price.
      96,000 tonnes multiplied by 25,000 US dollars per tonne equals 2.4 billion US dollars per year.
   2. Annual Operating Costs
      Annual operating costs equal annual production multiplied by operating cost per tonne.
      96,000 tonnes multiplied by 4,000 US dollars per tonne equals 384 million US dollars per year.
   3. Annual Cash Flow
      Annual cash flow equals revenue minus operating costs.
      2.4 billion US dollars minus 384 million US dollars equals 2.016 billion US dollars per year.
   4. Present Value of Cash Flows (Discounted)
      Using a 12 percent discount rate and a 20-year project life:
      Present value of cash flows equals annual cash flow multiplied by discount factor.
      Discount factor for a 12 percent rate over 20 years is approximately 7.47.
      2.016 billion US dollars multiplied by 7.47 equals 15.06 billion US dollars.
   5. Adjust for CapEx
      Subtract upfront capital expenditure.
      15.06 billion US dollars minus 600 million US dollars equals 14.46 billion US dollars.
   6. Per Share Value
      Value per share equals adjusted present value divided by shares outstanding.
      14.46 billion US dollars divided by 3.5 billion shares equals 4.13 US dollars per share.
3. Final Valuation
   The fair value per share for AVZ is estimated at USD 4.13, or approximately AUD 6.35 (using an exchange rate of 1 USD = 1.54 AUD).
   
   I would settle for 6.35 AUD per share.

You have calculated Dathcom value. AVZ own 44.5% of that for profit and selling purposes. And don’t forget the tax tax tax of 30%.

It’s gonna be cooked because the order of calculation is wrong and dividing Dathcom value by AVZ shares is incorrect but on the same basis you have chosen using your inputs it ends up around the same valuation as @geo_au and I

6.35 (-30%) x 44.5% = $1.97

 

[Mute22]

Honestly, can you blame those who exploit the system and get out?

The whole country is a bucket of crabs, always was, always will be:

 

[Azzler]

You have calculated Dathcom value. AVZ own 44.5% of that for profit and selling purposes. And don’t forget the tax tax tax of 30%.

It’s gonna be cooked because the order of calculation is wrong and dividing Dathcom value by AVZ shares is incorrect but on the same basis you have chosen using your inputs it ends up around the same valuation as @geo_au and I

6.35 (-30%) x 44.5% = $1.97

We may not end up having to pay that tax, ya never know it seems like endless surprises.