AVZ Discussion 2022

[Frank]

Totally agree.

DRC as well as Cath have shown they cannot be trusted.
Just remember the way Cath voted in 2023 November with MMGA and what would have happened if they would have won that vote.
We would not be talking AVZ today and your money would have been gone.

As far as I see it, AVZ has funding to continue the fight.
That funding came at a price.

Until AVZ has the entire title back (and Zijin off the tenement), the ML and access to power from the hydro power station, the arbitration fight will have to continue.

Giving up arbitration now, because Pei started to talk business is insane.
Pei started to realize that there could well be a possibility that they could lose the lot, that is the only reason Pei wanted to talk.
The way the deal was struck really didn't cost Pei anything, just a couple of moves on the chess board.

The foot has to be kept on the throat and any wriggle has to be answered with an extra bit of weight on that foot, to make sure they understand.

Fukkum

Totally agree !

Did Cath grow a Conscience ? Probably Not !

Did Cath realise they were backing a Donkey ?

Probably !

Would Pei end up Shit Creek without a Paddle

Most likely !

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

I wonder if Mr. Pei put in a clause that Nigel has to call him Daddy from now on. It would be a deal breaker if I was Mr. Pei.

 

[BEISHA]

I wonder if Mr. Pei put in a clause that Nigel has to call him Daddy from now on. It would be a deal breaker if I was Mr. Pei.

daddy or didi ?

 

[Xerof]

daddy or didi ?

or cream pei

 

[cruiser51]

I wonder if Mr. Pei put in a clause that Nigel has to call him Daddy from now on. It would be a deal breaker if I was Mr. Pei.

You mean part of the deal is Nigel and John have to give Pei sexual pleasures?

If I was Pei, I would be very careful and not get carried away too much, there could well be some payback when not expecting it.

 

[Xerof]

@Hodlandwin69

I'll find out for certain next week, but I think, on balance, you're right about 30.5% of 'the project'. This would mean CATH will have ~40.6% of GLH, still leaving AVZI and AVZ with majority control at the Holding Company level

But the point is, DATHCOM still holds the 75%, with CATH having a 30.5% INDIRECT interest.

TBH, I think CATH is much more interested in the product, not so much how big a slice of the Pei (sic) they hold.

Fuck, they will even build phase 1 for us via a loan, rather than more equity, if AVZ doesn't want to bother with supra-national bank funding, with all the shit that carries with it

 

[Doc]

 

[j.l]

I think Zijin will still be in the game. It will be too hard for DRC to dig themselves out of that one without exposing themselves to legal action and angering the overlords.

Ever since the mica infested north comments in 2021 there's been indication from Nigel of the inevitability of giving something away.

The wording "grant of a mining
licence for the project area covered by PR 13359 (Mining Licence)" says to me that we/CATH only get the south - probably the extent of the resource drilling completed to date.

But we don't give up the north and Mpiana Mwanga for nothing so we use the ICC and ICSID wins to negotiate some kind of compensation, say a payout or a royalty on Zjin's production, and some kind of power supply agreement or free carried share of the power station.

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

You mean part of the deal is Nigel and John have to give Pei sexual pleasures?

If I was Pei, I would be very careful and not get carried away too much, there could well be some payback when not expecting it.

Imagine the negotiating table

Nigel: can I bring you attention to clause 76.b paragraph 3 'Nigel must refer to Mr. Pei as Daddy moving forward'. Can we remove this?

Pei: Those are my terms

Nigel: *furiously signing contracts*

 

[Underwaterdark]

I am a bit late to read this announcement.

Re the 30.5% revised for CATH,

Are my back of the envelope numbers right that this equates to circa 40c AUD per share in value, that they are going to pay?

$850m USD, at current exchange, 3.5b SOI.

 

[PhatCatz]

@Hodlandwin69

I'll find out for certain next week, but I think, on balance, you're right about 30.5% of 'the project'. This would mean CATH will have ~40.6% of GLH, still leaving AVZI and AVZ with majority control at the Holding Company level

But the point is, DATHCOM still holds the 75%, with CATH having a 30.5% INDIRECT interest.

TBH, I think CATH is much more interested in the product, not so much how big a slice of the Pei (sic) they hold.

Fuck, they will even build phase 1 for us via a loan, rather than more equity, if AVZ doesn't want to bother with supra-national bank funding, with all the shit that carries with it

thank you for doing the math. this is the point I was confused about. Let's hope this doesn't go the way of LLL.

 

[Retrobyte]

I for one welcome our new Chinese overlords (I had a genetic test and it says I'm 5.5% Chinese)

So did a bloke I work with. His genetic test came back 5.5cm Chinese.

 

[Xerof]

I am a bit late to read this announcement.

Re the 30.5% revised for CATH,

Are my back of the envelope numbers right that this equates to circa 40c AUD per share in value, that they are going to pay?

$850m USD, at current exchange, 3.5b SOI.

Unreliable for valuations at the equity level. It's essentially a farm-in (and also Off-takes). Remember AVZ have paid ~US$26m plus a few shares for 75% of this tenement, and since put another circa 100m into exploration

JMT, anyone else?

Anyway, time for a Margarita, seeing it's Friday and after a week of some EXCELLENT news

 

[Underwaterdark]

Unreliable for valuations at the equity level. It's essentially a farm-in. Remember AVZ have paid ~US$26m plus a few shares for 75% of this tenement, and since put another circa 100m into exploration

JMT, anyone else?

Not overly looking from a valuation perspective, just wanted a rough idea of if we are all going to get out of it, what the price might be.
(fully aware that its not the greatest indication, but better than we have had for some time)

 

[tonster66]

I think Zijin will still be in the game. It will be too hard for DRC to dig themselves out of that one without exposing themselves to legal action and angering the overlords.

Ever since the mica infested north comments in 2021 there's been indication from Nigel of the inevitability of giving something away.

The wording "grant of a mining
licence for the project area covered by PR 13359 (Mining Licence)" says to me that we/CATH only get the south - probably the extent of the resource drilling completed to date.

But we don't give up the north and Mpiana Mwanga for nothing so we use the ICC and ICSID wins to negotiate some kind of compensation, say a payout or a royalty on Zjin's production, and some kind of power supply agreement or free carried share of the power station.

I would have thought it would be easy to get rid of zijin , they have so many breaches of the drc mining code just look at the environmental damage they have caused at Manono.
If they can take AVZ license for not getting on with shareholders they can do this to zijin easily

 

[Frank]

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

 

[wombat74]

I think Zijin will still be in the game. It will be too hard for DRC to dig themselves out of that one without exposing themselves to legal action and angering the overlords.

Ever since the mica infested north comments in 2021 there's been indication from Nigel of the inevitability of giving something away.

The wording "grant of a mining
licence for the project area covered by PR 13359 (Mining Licence)" says to me that we/CATH only get the south - probably the extent of the resource drilling completed to date.

But we don't give up the north and Mpiana Mwanga for nothing so we use the ICC and ICSID wins to negotiate some kind of compensation, say a payout or a royalty on Zjin's production, and some kind of power supply agreement or free carried share of the power station.

I agree . None of this changes the fact the CCP have the DRC Gov under the thumb . Way I see this playing out is Zijin keep the North , AVZ/CATH take Roche Dure and a deal is done where both parties have access to power . All court cases dropped . All fines dropped . Cominiere is 90% owned by the DRC Gov . Celestine Kibeya is but a tiny turd floating in tolate's toilet . IMO

 

[Hodlandwin69]

I agree . None of this changes the fact the CCP have the DRC Gov under the thumb . Way I see this playing out is Zijin keep the North , AVZ/CATH take Roche Dure and a deal is done where both parties have access to power . All court cases dropped . All fines dropped . Cominiere is 90% owned by the DRC Gov . Celestine Kibeya is but a tiny turd floating in tolate's toilet . IMO

Still think zijin should have to purchase the North, cunts

 

[JNRB]

*Meanwhile in other News of the Shit Stains / Skidmarks of the Toilet variety, I see where

Zijin adds to lithium push with talks to buy $6 billion miner
China’s Zijin Mining Group Co., already a global force in copper and gold, is stepping up its foray into lithium with the potential purchase of a Chinese producer of the battery material.



The resource giant is in talks to buy shares in Zangge Mining Co. Ltd. that could lead to a takeover, Zijin said in a statement to the Hong Kong Exchange.



Zijin has grown aggressively over the past decade through a string of acquisitions, and is aiming to be a bigger player in the expanding global lithium market.



Zangge, the latest target, is based in China’s minerals-rich western region of Qinghai and has a market value of 46.6 billion yuan ($6.4 billion) on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.



It primarily produces potash — used in fertilizer — but gets about a third of its revenue from lithium extracted from salt lakes in Qinghai.



Lithium’s crash since late-2022 — prices have slumped nearly 90% — has hammered listed producers and fueled a spurt of dealmaking.



Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-biggest mining group, last year agreed to buy Arcadium Lithium Plc for $6.7 billion.



Zangge is a relatively small lithium producer, producing about 9,278 tons of lithium carbonate in the first nine months of 2024.



But it has plans to develop further brine projects in Tibet, where it’s also already a junior partner in Zijin’s Julong copper mine.



Zijin’s chairman Chen Jinghe, a former geologist, has led a rapid expansion that’s carried the firm to the top ranks of global copper miners.



The company began digging gold in the mountains of southeastern China in the 1980s, and it now has a market capitalization of about $57 billion in Hong Kong. The shares rose 3.4% on Friday.



The lithium push has been more recent, driven by the prospect of a decades-long demand boom for the material used in EV batteries.



It’s aiming to produce up to 300,000 tons by 2028, according to a strategy document from last year, although output so far been modest.



Zijin postponed the startup of projects in Argentina and Tibet until 2025 because of weak prices and permitting delays, and it’s aiming to start output in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2026.



It also has a hard-rock mine in China’s Hunan province.



The purchase of shares in Zangge “may result in a change in control” of the target company, Zijin’s statement said.



mining.com





Hmmm !.jpg

@Underwaterdark

If you want an idea of what we might get out of it from a full takeover, better off looking at things like this and other acquisitions.

There's been a few deals going around lately. Yes, sometimes for operating mines rather than mineral rights, but still - $2billion + for a projects that's are minnows next to Manono seems to be happening not infrequently now.



- CATH deal values us ~0.85 billion.
But made during our dark ages, and comes with lots of other sweeteners.


- i forget the details but there was some sort of litigation claim from Kong maybe? Can't remember the details, but for their % chunk of the company and what they claimed they were due in damages IIRC it valued the company at a few billion.

- God its going a long way back now but our ATH was circa 4-5 B? Back when we thought things were going well and the DRC had matured as a country.

- if you value it proportionately to resource size based on recent acquisitions: others have done the math, but it gets pretty juicy.

- if were forced to be 'patient' for long enough for lithium prices to recover it gets even juicier

- if you add on top of that rights to 49% of a hydroxide plant, well it starts looking very tasty indeed.


So those are my metrics for trying to keep some sort of concept of what this thing is worth.
Question is how long.

 

[JNRB]

I agree . None of this changes the fact the CCP have the DRC Gov under the thumb . Way I see this playing out is Zijin keep the North , AVZ/CATH take Roche Dure and a deal is done where both parties have access to power . All court cases dropped . All fines dropped . Cominiere is 90% owned by the DRC Gov . Celestine Kibeya is but a tiny turd floating in tolate's toilet . IMO

So you think:
- CATH is going to build a mine on HALF the tenement we're entitled to
- So they can let Zijin build a SEPARATE mine right next door
- ...and then buy stuff from Zijin that they could have owned and mined themselves??

Not a chance.
We fought for the north as a tiny Minnow.
CATH will squash Zijin, exert the same CCP pressure that Zijin does and then some, offer hydroxide plant as a sweeteners, and we will develop the whole site.

I really don't understand why people think the involvement of CATH thinks we're suddenly likely to just roll over and give up the north.
WE want it all
CATH wants it all.

Why - the hell - would we cave now.