This was posted today by Anatol on the crapper.
Essentially, it relates to LTR but addresses near and mid-term lithium prices.
Enjoy:
I explained the details about the cost of Australian spod producers on my Post #:
76585895 on Nov.13.
Those producers do not give their AISC (All-in-sustained-cash, everything is included, including royalties) cost. They only give their C1 FOB or CIF cash cost which only the operating cost are included. AISC cost is the final cost. It's the real cost. LTR has given it (Mid point US$835/t).
LTR's cost is being the second best after Greenbushes because LTR has a brand new mine, plant, equipment, and more importantly high grade single ore body and an underground mine.
While LTR can reach its high grade ore easily through its U/G mine, and lower its costs over the time, the other producers now have a big problem to reach their high grade ore sections because they have to remove huge amounts of waste material (overburden rock and soil) over their high grade pegmatites. Removing those waste material is also a very high cost.
- Mt Marion of MIN/Ganfeng; can't even produce over 4.1% spod), deferred its U/G mine plans.
- Wodgina of MIN/Albemarle; Albemarle forces MIN to reduce the production in half, as they declared that the C1 cash cost at US$642/t, which makes the AISC cost over US$900/t. Wodgina partners were also talking about U/G mining option but it's too late for them too.
- Pilgangoora of PLS; was mining its highest grade ore of 1.5% in recent quarters despite its ave. grade is only 1.15%%. It was also looking to make U/G mine plans but I think PLS is also late to do that. PLS has given its C1 FOB cost around US$406/t recently but I believe Pilgangoora's AISC cost is also over US$900/t as it's at the same region with Wodgina and has an older tech plant than Wodgina.
- Mt Holland of Covelant Lithium (WES/SQM JV) is still in commissioning mode and their aim is to feed the 350kt (which is small amount) spod to its own lithium hydroxide plant which is still under construction. The project will be active next year.
- Bald Hill of MIN (ex A40) is also a small project, very high C1 cost announced and now in C&M.
- Mt Cattlin of Arcadium (Now RIO) was also a very small project and run out of ore. It's already dead.
You can see the big picture here. It's very simple.
There are no other projects other than these shown on the map.
If those projects won't sell cheap China wouldn't be able to find lithium from the other parts of the world. It's not possible.
The Chinese needs Australian spod like crazy.
But we are selling our spod very cheap like crazy as well.
The Chinese non-integrated lepidolite production is nearly dead.
The African spod production is already dead.
And the EV production in China is at record level.
Making a record high every month.
And the BEOT wants us to believe that lithium is dead..!
All Australian lithium producers are making loss or at the breakeven point (LTR's case now) atm (other than Greenbushes, which is under Chinese control). That means the Australian spod mines produce lithium and pays more (the loss) on top of cost to get the Chinese buy it..!
That's stupid.
So those manipulators playing with LTR's stock price every day for a purpose. However it's not possible that Tim Goyder, his supporters, his team and we the long term holders would sell to a cheap takeover offer. It is just not possible.
It's not possible to convince anyone that LTR's mcap at $1.5b is justifiable.
It is so obvious that it's just the result of heavy manipulation. LTR spent more than $1b just for the mine and project. If we add up everything it might be close to $1.5b.
The resource value is not included in that! I can give you many examples about the resource value. Just look at the recent AZS value, or go back and see how much WES paid to 90mt resource of Kidman ($750) in the worst time of lithium, Albemarle paid over $1.7b (US$1.15b) for 50% of Wodgina resource (around 110mt at 1.15%) on Dec. 2018 at the worst time of lithium again).
So the current mcap valuation of LTR is ridiculous. The BEOT wants us to see hallucinations.
It's not possible that LTR would go into a hard situation because of its stock price is capped at low price.
LTR is producing and selling, receiving cash.
We already sold nearly a 100kt spod. It's a lot in just 5 months including commissioning and ramp up. The cash is coming in. Now we will start shipping to Tesla, then LG, and then Ford. This is just a matter of time.
The 60c stock price is already shocking for us but I am not selling (talking on my behalf).
The lower the price the worse for the manipulators, because I won't sell anyway. I know many holders are selling their other stocks (which remains high) and buying more LTR atm.
If LTR needs money it won't be hard to get credit as it's already producing and receiving cash. No commissioning or ramp up risk anymore. All done and finished.
Therefore, those BEOT guys and their shorters are just dreaming about any kind of CR. When we need cash we wouldn't make an ordinary CR, we would do similar kind of stake sale as we did with LG.
This part is from my older post. Just to remember;
Again; Lithium over supply narrative is not true
It's the Chinese gov's subsidies keep the lithium price low.
The instos and brokers, and the downrampers are all asking the same question; "If the lithium price goes down more, what are you going to do?"
I don't understand why they don't see that those lithium prices are absolutely artificial, created by Chinese gov's subsidies to its lithium producers in and out of China. And China was clearly accused of doing that by the EU commission after the EU made investigation in China.
Lower lithium price is not possible.
We have already touched the bottom and going up.
On the shorting side of the market everyone is dreaming for lower lithium prices but it's just not possible. Any good and unbiased analyst can see that. There is only one way for the lithium prices to go, and it's up.
Let's have a look at the facts now.
- The cost of producing spod concentrate in Australia is higher than Chinese spot price(except Greenbushes which is under Chinese control)
- Australia supplies 50% of world lithium demand.
- If Australia can't produce lithium by an incentive price, supply side will collapse
- And lithium prices will be sky-rocketed.
One thing is certain. The cost of producing spod concentrate is quite high atm. LTR gave its C1 cash cost and AISC cost honestly and clearly, and informed the market how they will deal with it. That's why the market's reaction has been positive.
Before I explain the costs of Australian spod producers I need to give this information;
- Non-steep cash cost curve of production and very tight supply/demand balance will cause much higher lithium prices from now on.
- However no new tier-1 project will come online for the next five years.
- The new projects will require higher incentive lithium prices; over US$1400/t, because the AISC cost is over US$900/t for most of the spod projects.
- Even US$1400/t wouldn't be attractive enough for new investments, which means only small scale gipsy projects in Africa and Sth America can go online.
- Because the market participants are not able to correctly forecast long term lithium prices due to Chinese gov. subsidies and price manipulations, they will hesitate to invest in lithium sector.
- That will even cause much higher lithium prices in the mid and long term.
