Wow just returning to the forum after taking a month away on holiday, and what a grade-A shitshow! Seems to have devolved somewhat..
Personally, after reading allll these pages and the announcements issued since i took a travel-based mental-health breather (which admittedly focused largely on alcohol consumption) I think Zijin and Cominiere coming together on this latest ICC action is likely a further expression of a simple yet multi-pronged strategy previously mentioned:
1. To allow Zijin to be seen as a cooperative actor with Cominiere, underpinning its claim that a new JV between it and the Government would progress this strategic Project - as "we are already working together against the culprit stalling the Project".
2. To allow Zijin to fund and support Cominiere at the ICC, including by managing its legal team, giving it a better hope of success amidst its typical uselessness, and avoiding its concerns at being unable to pay its way. Its not Zijin's first rodeo at using the legal system to stall, steal a project or undermine an opponent! Likely also presents another path for transmission of snacks if necessary, as an aside.
3. To allow more imminent ICC cases to be wrapped up into a later submitted umbrella case, pushing back the window again to post 2024 at earliest. Im convinced we will see such an attempt come to pass. This would mark part of what I assume is now their grand strategic plan of delayance, in which they are likely to bombard the government along with the Chinese authorities and their suborned DRC agents (aka MoP/CAMI/Cominiere et al) that the only way to get this very important Project moving is by removal of whom they portray as the blocking actor. I have seen firm indicators of this in all the Cominiere and Zijin statements and letters, which were unfortunately also echoed in the MoM's cancelation decree.
4: Connected to the above, ensuring that Zijin have access to an ICC case against AVZ that it can use to delay us into dust, in consideration that its initial challenge was likely to be thrown out due to jurisdictional issues in July/Aug.
Regarding the Zijin/Com inclusion of a 'value' as set by its damages claim, this could potentially be seen a statement of lost revenue due to 'AVZ's delay', as reflected against the timeline set in the DFS as to first sale of product if these disputes hadn't erupted. Just a theory.
But anyway this is where I see this game moving, and I think Cominiere's efforts (seemingly with CAMI involvement) to simple oust AVZ or reassign 13359 to Cominiere is part of this plan coming together. I think we all know examples of where governments have stripped licenses of those they claim weren't progressing their Projects. Mostly due to their own inability rather than the institutionalized and state-backed corruption in service of outside non-state actors we are seeing with AVZ, but we've seen it nonetheless. That's probably Objective A of the plot, but a secondary Objective B could be to push us towards accepting a low-ball TO after we run out of cash, should their efforts to win the Project outright through subterfuge not reach success.
I have been calling for a negotiated outcome to this for a year, however to my dismay (though not those of all here) I think we may have pushed past the point now where that is possible. It's a major roll of the dice by our management, and one I now think is going to be to our ultimate detriment, but the AVZ management have optics on all the aspects of this case and I do not, so some benefit of the doubt must be provided. As such I'm still backing them - though with considerable apprehension.
In any case best of luck to all our holders here, as we've still got a difficult road ahead! I continue to appreciate all the information being presented here by those you all know, with a special mention to 9card, Frank, Carlos and others, and to the efforts of those like Spike and JAG who are continuing to fight the good fight. Note I even appreciate the return of our old friend DG who whilst muddying the waters as ever, does provide some interesting avenues of thought. Would prefer them in English though, I must say.
