AVZ Discussion 2022

[BEISHA]

China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative

China’s colossal infrastructure investments may usher in a new era of trade and growth for economies in Asia and beyond. But skeptics worry that China is laying a debt trap for borrowing governments.

www.cfr.org

A really inciteful and scary read about Chinas tentacle spread around the world regards to BRI


Key take aways

China’s overall ambition for the BRI is staggering. To date, 147 countries—accounting for two-thirds of the world’s population and 40 percent of global GDP—have signed on to projects or indicated an interest in doing so.....

In total, China has already spent an estimated $1 trillion on such efforts.....

Xi has promoted a vision of a more assertive China, even as the country’s outstanding loans have grown to the equivalent of over a quarter of its GDP......

A 2021 study [PDF] analyzed over one hundred debt financing contracts China signed with foreign governments and found that the contracts often contain clauses that restrict restructuring with the group of twenty-two major creditor nations known as the “Paris Club.”.......

China also frequently retains the right to demand repayment at any time, giving Beijing the ability to use funding as a tool to enforce Chinese hot button issues such as Taiwan or the treatment of Uyghurs......

Some European countries have been more critical. French President Emmanuel Macron has urged prudence, suggesting during a 2018 trip to China that the BRI could make partner countries “vassal states.”......

Some other facts relating to Africa in general plus the congo.

China has become Africa's biggest bilateral lender, holding over $73 billion of Africa's debt in 2020 and almost $9 billion of private debt....

Data from the World Bank shows that 49 African countries owe 39% of their debt to multilateral institutions, 35% to private creditors (excluding Chinese private creditors), and 12% of the debt burden on the continent is owed to China and Chinese lenders.16 Feb 2023.......

According to official figures from the Chinese embassy, there are 5,000 Chinese living in the DR Congo, though the actual number is believed to be far higher. More recent estimates vary from 5,000 to 50,000.....


Yes, China influence spreads far and wide , especially with Africa / DRC and now it has spread to Manono.

Could it be that China , under the guise of Zijin is threatening the pissant weak FT govt, that if their " HOT BUTTON " issue of Manono is not given to them, then they may call up DRC debt to be repaid in full ASAP and / or their neighbouring states..

So how could the DRC counter that you say ?

Enter the USA.



Food for thought.


imo

 

[Xerof]

What I don’t understand is, the 10% attributed to Cominiere SA, is actually the State’s pension scheme entity’s equity not Cominiere SA’s?
MMCS don’t have 5% is clarified

Good point

COMINIERE claiming for 10%, Z for 15%, leaves a clear 75%, which even if you went with the Green Mamba declaration of DATHOMIR 15% and AVZ 60%, infers MMCS are out via an ICC determination.

So, where is it? Surely our fossickers on the ground in DRC should be able to get a copy of it, if it has been resolved

John, technically, without the issuance of the ML, wouldn't the 10% still remain with COMINIERE?

Oops, der geist, not John Reed, but oh well, same same

 

[ptlas]

China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative

China’s colossal infrastructure investments may usher in a new era of trade and growth for economies in Asia and beyond. But skeptics worry that China is laying a debt trap for borrowing governments.

www.cfr.org

A really inciteful and scary read about Chinas tentacle spread around the world regards to BRI


Key take aways

China’s overall ambition for the BRI is staggering. To date, 147 countries—accounting for two-thirds of the world’s population and 40 percent of global GDP—have signed on to projects or indicated an interest in doing so.....

In total, China has already spent an estimated $1 trillion on such efforts.....

Xi has promoted a vision of a more assertive China, even as the country’s outstanding loans have grown to the equivalent of over a quarter of its GDP......

A 2021 study [PDF] analyzed over one hundred debt financing contracts China signed with foreign governments and found that the contracts often contain clauses that restrict restructuring with the group of twenty-two major creditor nations known as the “Paris Club.”.......

China also frequently retains the right to demand repayment at any time, giving Beijing the ability to use funding as a tool to enforce Chinese hot button issues such as Taiwan or the treatment of Uyghurs......

Some European countries have been more critical. French President Emmanuel Macron has urged prudence, suggesting during a 2018 trip to China that the BRI could make partner countries “vassal states.”......

Some other facts relating to Africa in general plus the congo.

China has become Africa's biggest bilateral lender, holding over $73 billion of Africa's debt in 2020 and almost $9 billion of private debt....

Data from the World Bank shows that 49 African countries owe 39% of their debt to multilateral institutions, 35% to private creditors (excluding Chinese private creditors), and 12% of the debt burden on the continent is owed to China and Chinese lenders.16 Feb 2023.......

According to official figures from the Chinese embassy, there are 5,000 Chinese living in the DR Congo, though the actual number is believed to be far higher. More recent estimates vary from 5,000 to 50,000.....


Yes, China influence spreads far and wide , especially with Africa / DRC and now it has spread to Manono.

Could it be that China , under the guise of Zijin is threatening the pissant weak FT govt, that if their " HOT BUTTON " issue of Manono is not given to them, then they may call up DRC debt to be repaid in full ASAP and / or their neighbouring states..

So how could the DRC counter that you say ?

Enter the USA.



Food for thought.


imo

Argentina is a serial defaulter on international loans and IMF bail outs. Still won the World Cup

If these debtor nations were to get enough western support, then any future default would only really hurt china.

Look at what the west is doing to Russia presently. Keeping their assets

If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.
J. Paul Getty

 

[Carlos Danger]

Argentina is a serial defaulter on international loans and IMF bail outs. Still won the World Cup

If these debtor nations were to get enough western support, then any future default would only really hurt china.

Look at what the west is doing to Russia presently. Keeping their assets

If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.
J. Paul Getty

What's the inflation rate in Argentina?

 

[Lucas Don Velor]

The only legitimate valuation metrics for the Manono project are contained within AVZs DFS.

Cominiere is on record suggesting AVZ has done nothing to value add to the project, however todays actions by Jin Cheng and Cominiere indicate a contrary position.

Is Cominiere seriously proposing that AVZ has simultaneously added value AND done nothing?

 

[wombat74]

This is how it starts

Treasurer defends plans to tax unrealised gains in super

“Simplest and best way” to apply the 30 per cent rate on earnings from balances over $3 million, he said. The Treasurer has defended a decision to include unrealised gains in the calculation for

www.accountantsdaily.com.au

The Treasurer has defended a decision to include unrealised gains in the calculation for the higher rate of tax on super balances above $3 million and dismissed a backlash from the accounting industry.

Under the proposals an individual’s total super balance, which includes all notional gains and losses, will trigger the 30 per cent tax rate and that means members impacted by the measure will pay tax on unrealised earnings.

Accountants said this could cause problems for farmers and small business owners who often held one lumpy asset in their SMSF and might have insufficient liquidity to meet a tax liability.

Technical experts have already cited examples of problems with the way the government intends to calculate earnings for the measure.

Smarter SMSF chief executive Aaron Dunn said changes in a member’s total super balance purely from moves in the market value of assets would involve a tax liability to pay.

“[This is] in addition to the subsequent CGT on the disposal of the asset in the future which must be applied proportionately due to the disregarded small fund asset rules,” he said in a recent article.

The proposed measure could therefore impose a significant cash flow burden on many funds.

Heffron managing director Meg Heffron gave an example to illustrate the cash flow issue on a large unrealised gain.

Ms Heffron gave an example of Brad whose earnings were $1 million for the financial year due to the skyrocketing value of a property. Brad had $5.5 million in super.

The proportion of his earnings that will be subject to the extra tax of 15 per cent would be 45.45 per cent.

So in this case: 45.45% x $1m x 15% = $68,000 (approximately).

“What if Brad’s super fund was really only generating enough cash to pay his pension? The property is rented out and earns around $150,000 per annum but with expenses etc, there’s not a huge buffer over the pension payments,” she said.

“Normally that’s not a problem – Brad’s fund only needs enough cash to pay his pension and (worst case) if the property is untenanted for a while or needs major repairs so cash really dries up, he’s allowed to switch off (commute) his pension so that the fund doesn’t need any cash flow for a while.

“However, this special extra tax will apply regardless, and if the fund doesn’t have the cash to pay it, Brad will have to.

“So in fact this extra tax could mean Brad’s retirement income is used to pay tax on growth in the value of his fund’s property.”

Why farmers hate the new tax on 'unrealised gains' on super funds over $3m

Part of the federal government's changes to rules around superannuation involves a new tax on "unrealised gains", and it has farmers especially worried.

www.abc.net.au

It may be hard to feel sorry for someone who has more than $3 million stashed away but farmers say proposed changes to superannuation will seriously affect many hard-working families.

Unlike average Australians on a salary who get employer contributions to their super, farmers have to fund their own retirement and many do it by putting their farm into a self-managed fund.

When they retire they might lease the property out to earn income, sometimes to their children who then inherit the property when their parents die.

Under the federal government's proposed changes, however, farmers with more than $3m in their superannuation fund will have to pay capital gains tax if their property goes up in value.

A 5 per cent increase on a $3m property could result in a tax bill of perhaps $50k.

For some farmers, if they are cash poor, that could mean they may have to sell assets to pay the tax bill, but if the property value goes down the next year, they won't get a refund.

The federal government's plan is to double the tax rate on the nation's largest super accounts from 15 to 30 per cent in 2025, which it says will affect about 80,000 people who have more than $3m in their super fund.

That proposal includes a new tax on "unrealised gains", or the amount that the property increases in value in a financial year.

ASX shares included

Julie Schofield from rural financial services firm Boyce warns it is not just the farm that could be taxed under this proposal.

"It's listed equities as well, any assets that have gone up in value in a superfund environment, but only for people with balances greater than $3m," Ms Schofield said.

View attachment 36475

Wait for Death Duties .

 

[cruiser51]

Good point

COMINIERE claiming for 10%, Z for 15%, leaves a clear 75%, which even if you went with the Green Mamba declaration of DATHOMIR 15% and AVZ 60%, infers MMCS are out via an ICC determination.

So, where is it? Surely our fossickers on the ground in DRC should be able to get a copy of it, if it has been resolved

John, technically, without the issuance of the ML, wouldn't the 10% still remain with COMINIERE?

Oops, der geist, not John Reed, but oh well, same same

Let's call it Less.

Can't name names.

 

[RHyNO]

Until the raging Communist lefties start taxing unrealised gains!!

Imagine being in suspension - copping an added tax - and being unable to realise any profits..... Labor has to be stopped.

TC.

Imagine being taxed on gains made through this shit fight when the government and ASX sat on sidelines while Australian business interests where raped and plundered

 

[ptlas]

What's the inflation rate in Argentina?

I don't recall- it awas zillions. But it's irrelevant as debt is in US$

Point is what's to stop the west saying to Sri Lanka (upto their necks in Chinese debt) or anyone else 'Come and join our gang and we'll ignore your debt to PRC and that will stop them keeping your people in poverty?'

International debts don't need to be paid if the creditor has no leverage and if there is no reputational loss / sanctions then there is no incentive to pay.

Straight from the PRC playbook.

 

[mikejoho]

Lovely morning in Melbourne today, I had much to think about when out on my walk.

Please indulge another post of mine just thinking out loud.

We're collectively being sued for damages, but what damages? It's not mentioned in the announcement.
IF AVZ have been removed as claimed by CKK, then what is there to sue?
Why have AVZ pointed out the fact that the claimed amounts add up to Z and Coms claimed ownership in a valuation of the company at $5.66B?

I can't help but think (ever the optimist) that AVZ have secured Manono and Com and Z are out. But it can not yet be announced, finalizing stages ect...
So Com and Z are sueing for their claimed ownership valuations.

AVZ have to anounce the ICC request, but can't yet announce the win for Manono, so this is what we get.

Why would AVZ mention this specifically...

"it appears on face value that the
amount of the damages claims is based on Jin Cheng holding a 15% interest
and Cominière a 10% interest in Dathcom, thus suggesting that the Claimants
are valuing the entirety of the Manono Project at US$5.66 billion"

To the optimist, this looks like a wink.
Why would they make this particular observation in an official announcement?
To me they're telling us they want to be payed out.... which means we might have won.

Gods I don't know, I'm just thinking out loud. There's missing information about this ICC request announcement.

Am I utterly crazy thinking this?

Azzler, This was my thoughts exactly

 

[cruiser51]

The only legitimate valuation metrics for the Manono project are contained within AVZs DFS.

Cominiere is on record suggesting AVZ has done nothing to value add to the project, however todays actions by Jin Cheng and Cominiere indicate a contrary position.

Is Cominiere seriously proposing that AVZ has simultaneously added value AND done nothing?

It's blatantly obvious that Cominière and Jin Chen just did some value adding.

Hopefully they realise, they just admitted Jules A's claim that Jin Chen grossly underpaid and Cominière's scandalous sale (theft) with nothing to show.

Not only that.... AVZ had nothing to do with that transaction.

How is Cominière going to explain this fancy footwork?

Will FT try to sweep this under the carpet, if this transaction is made public on every possible Congolese media outlet?

Can't look very promising for a president aspiring a second term as President of the DRC!

 

[Carlos Danger]

I don't recall- it awas zillions. But it's irrelevant as debt is in US$

Point is what's to stop the west saying to Sri Lanka (upto their necks in Chinese debt) or anyone else 'Come and join our gang and we'll ignore your debt to PRC and that will stop them keeping your people in poverty?'

International debts don't need to be paid if the creditor has no leverage and if there is no reputational loss / sanctions then there is no incentive to pay.

Straight from the PRC playbook.

Argentina April 2023 CPI was 109%

Their central bank announced yesterday that interest rates will be raised to 97%

That isn't a typo. 97% interest on loans.

Personally I think there is relevance in the fact that because they are bums that don't pay their debts they now have to constantly print pesos which is driving their inflation

Yeah sure they may not need to pay their debts internationally but it severely limits who will lend to them in the future and that can cause massive problems domestically. As the old government of Sri Lanka found out lmao

 

[BEISHA]

Argentina is a serial defaulter on international loans and IMF bail outs. Still won the World Cup

If these debtor nations were to get enough western support, then any future default would only really hurt china.

Look at what the west is doing to Russia presently. Keeping their assets

If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.
J. Paul Getty

"If these debtor nations were to get enough western support, then any future default would only really hurt china."

Exactly, and to extend that further, if the west started to dramatically reduce their export reliance from China , like Australia are finally doing aka new trade agreements with UK & India etc, then Chinas 350% debt / GDP ratio will burn them to a crisp.

Russia is a pariah state in waiting, China could easily join them.

imo

 

[Samus]

You've just got to fucking laugh at this point.

 

[Bray]

Never thought would be sitting in front row seats at the circus once, let alone 12 months straight

Gotta love the special forces of ZIGCOM setting our TO price at near $2

 

[Xerof]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch

 

[cruiser51]

I don't recall- it awas zillions. But it's irrelevant as debt is in US$

Point is what's to stop the west saying to Sri Lanka (upto their necks in Chinese debt) or anyone else 'Come and join our gang and we'll ignore your debt to PRC and that will stop them keeping your people in poverty?'

International debts don't need to be paid if the creditor has no leverage and if there is no reputational loss / sanctions then there is no incentive to pay.

Straight from the PRC playbook.

When I was in BA, the steaks weren't inflated and better than Oztralia.

On top of that:
Argentina is the home of the second-largest shale formation in the world, containing an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.14 Mar 2023
And Oil production in Argentina amounted to 627 thousand barrels per day in 2021.
Argentina's current installed lithium carbonate production capacity stands at 37,500 tonnes, and the country produces 33,000 tonnes annually. The value of these exports is expected to reach $8.7bn by 2030. Argentina's two active lithium mines have been the key drivers for the rise in sales.24 Apr 2023

I don't think the margin on Dilma Tea is that high.

 

[TheCount]

When I was in BA, the steaks weren't inflated and better than Oztralia.

On top of that:
Argentina is the home of the second-largest shale formation in the world, containing an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.14 Mar 2023
And Oil production in Argentina amounted to 627 thousand barrels per day in 2021.
Argentina's current installed lithium carbonate production capacity stands at 37,500 tonnes, and the country produces 33,000 tonnes annually. The value of these exports is expected to reach $8.7bn by 2030. Argentina's two active lithium mines have been the key drivers for the rise in sales.24 Apr 2023

I don't think the margin on Dilma Tea is that high.

Margin not that high - but they grow it everywhere!!

TC.

 

[Der Geist]

Good point

COMINIERE claiming for 10%, Z for 15%, leaves a clear 75%, which even if you went with the Green Mamba declaration of DATHOMIR 15% and AVZ 60%, infers MMCS are out via an ICC determination.

So, where is it? Surely our fossickers on the ground in DRC should be able to get a copy of it, if it has been resolved

John, technically, without the issuance of the ML, wouldn't the 10% still remain with COMINIERE?

Oops, der geist, not John Reed, but oh well, same same

Would be great to see the documents to see if Dathomir is still considered.

We need access to the RCCM as well

 

[Der Geist]

Your writing style reminds me of a very high profile Lawyer, recently had a Birthday (mid 70's), worked in Sydney. We used to have many conversations about Redfire Resources back in the day......
TC.

Lawyers are always interesting for optics, is he saying anything on the AVZ matter?