AVZ Discussion 2022

[M.Bison]

LTR encroaching on a $6 billion valuation pre production. Wonder if any government official in the DRC can see how much money this mess is costing them. In a proper business environment, AVZ is a $10-$20 Billion company. Given the DRC GDP is $55 billion, hoping they can come to their senses this decade.

 

[DoubleA]

The intent of that $240m is that it gets buried into initial mining development cost ( it's not keep the lights on $$$) , so in the mine development sector, that $240m gets evaporated within months not years and we certainly would not be, as you say -

‘we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million’

Komoa mine was held under Komoa Holdings a subsidiary of Ivanhoe ; Komoa Holdings held ‘80%’ of the Komoa project; Ivanhoe then sold 49.5% of Komoa Holdings off to Zijin for 400/500m.

Hand passing CATH 24% thus reducing us to 51%, with the Dathomir 15% still on the DRC registration books ( unresolved ) ; in the DRC....36% becomes a possible highlight figure ; i know you reckon you’d take the risk..but without drilling too far down into possibilities / scenarios , just take the percentages and names above... 24% CATH...Dathomir get through the door with their 15%; this takes AVZ to 36%.... Dathomir have zero intent in Inputting capital funds in Manono..they will offload..Dathomir sells 15% to CATH ; CATH now have 39%, AVZ loses control.

IMO until things are further resolved, I doubt management are going to play Russian roullet in that dark Chinese alley

Highly unlikely that AVZ would burn through $240 million within months without the mining licence. If the mining licence is granted then the issues are likely substantially resolved anyway.

I am well aware of the percentages.

The Minister of Portfolio has always been against AVZ. Now the Minister of Mines has cancelled the decrees for the mining licence due to lack of cooperation. What percentage will AVZ control after Cominiere continue refusing to cooperate and the DRC Government strip the project? The answer is 0%.

As I said, I would be tempted to take the risk with the information that I have. AVZ seemed to have been caught off guard by the cancelling of the decrees. No one at a high level in the DRC Government seems to be willing to meet with AVZ. At least with the $240 million invested the Chinese would have some skin in the game.

 

[MoneyBags1348]

LTR encroaching on a $6 billion valuation pre production. Wonder if any government official in the DRC can see how much money this mess is costing them. In a proper business environment, AVZ is a $10-$20 Billion company. Given the DRC GDP is $55 billion, hoping they can come to their senses this decade.

I think the Chinese are telling the DRC if you want us to start any infrastructure build ahead of the election you have to include us in Manono.

We have already seen the Chinese build roads and then charge tolls on them and we have seen the result of the deal of the century where China profited from cobalt and copper and didn’t spend what they promised on infrastructure and now probably telling the DRC if they want that same infrastructure built and infrastructure around Manono as well then they want a share of the lithium as well.

China committed military to the DRC as well, but again this has only been to progress their own interest. These rotten corrupt Chinese companies are trying to force their will on the DRC, and the DRC need someone else to build their infrastructure so they can piss the Chinese off out of the country…. Hopefully they are seeking tenders from elsewhere like the US or Saudi Arabia. To be honest I think they are all corrupt but they also all want lithium (especially our high grade) desperately

With global growth in a state of economic stall, and with high inflation and interest rates demand for EV’s has also stalled. But there has always been a rapid rise in growth following this type of scenario in the past (I think, I’ve become a little brain fatigued from our situation) and the demand for lithium will continue to far outpace supply in my view, leading again to another push higher for lithium prices

I don’t think CATH ever really wanted to manufacture batteries in the DRC, but Panasonic and LG Chem, who are in the top 5 battery producers in the world might, and perhaps Japanese and South Korean car manufacturers might like to build car factories between the DRC and Zambia.

Just thinking of other options, the best in my mind would probably be Albermarle, BHP or FMG taking a majority ownership over our project with us still involved so we could get those dividends many of us hoped for down the road.

I’ve got no idea what I posted above, just fucken rambling now because like I said, I’m brain fatigued, sick of the incompetence and corruption in the DRC and dealing with fuckwits and I’ve spent so much time on here over the last year it’s getting so I don’t know what else to do with myself

The only thing that might make me feel better is a PM signed selfie from @Nellie17

Just joking Nell’s, my better half is gorgeous, one day I might even post a photo of her here

One thing won’t change at least….

You can all have some of this
🫵

 

[Retrobyte]

Maïss Tshibangu was arrested for hanging around the Fleuve Congo Hotel dressed like a pimp selling his services.

In jail, he will meet Hebangu

 

[Flight996]

I think the Chinese are telling the DRC if you want us to start any infrastructure build ahead of the election you have to include us in Manono.

We have already seen the Chinese build roads and then charge tolls on them and we have seen the result of the deal of the century where China profited from cobalt and copper and didn’t spend what they promised on infrastructure and now probably telling the DRC if they want that same infrastructure built and infrastructure around Manono as well then they want a share of the lithium as well.

China committed military to the DRC as well, but again this has only been to progress their own interest. These rotten corrupt Chinese companies are trying to force their will on the DRC, and the DRC need someone else to build their infrastructure so they can piss the Chinese off out of the country…. Hopefully they are seeking tenders from elsewhere like the US or Saudi Arabia. To be honest I think they are all corrupt but they also all want lithium (especially our high grade) desperately

With global growth in a state of economic stall, and with high inflation and interest rates demand for EV’s has also stalled. But there has always been a rapid rise in growth following this type of scenario in the past (I think, I’ve become a little brain fatigued from our situation) and the demand for lithium will continue to far outpace supply in my view, leading again to another push higher for lithium prices

I don’t think CATH ever really wanted to manufacture batteries in the DRC, but Panasonic and LG Chem, who are in the top 5 battery producers in the world might, and perhaps Japanese and South Korean car manufacturers might like to build car factories between the DRC and Zambia.

Just thinking of other options, the best in my mind would probably be Albermarle, BHP or FMG taking a majority ownership over our project with us still involved so we could get those dividends many of us hoped for down the road.

Mate, I think that AVZ can expect nothing from the USA in the near term.
Despite a couple of high-level meetings in mid-2022 and early 2023, the USA has committed nothing to the DRC due to the DRC's endemic corruption. As US Sec of State Blinken said in mid-2022: US investment will come when corruption ends. That pretty much sums up where the USA stands on investing in the DRC.
Europe, Japan and Korea remain unconvinced about investing in the DRC, despite some initial interest, particularly from Panasonic and LG.
The neo-colonist Chinese, however remain committed to the DRC...committed to keeping the DRC impoverished, and exploiting and stealing everything they can lay their grubby hands on.

Unfortunately, at this stage of the game there are no white knights for AVZ.

Nonetheless, I remain positive that prior to the ICC mediations in mid-April, AVZ can negotiate and agree an outcome that all stakeholders can live with.

Cheers
F

 

[cruiser51]

In jail, he will meet Hebangu

He might have time for Hebangsall after, might as well do a proper job, so Mills will never forget.

 

[Remark]

*Someone buy this Bloke a Beer, an Easter Egg and a Bunny, plus a Hot Cross Bun for his tummy for all the hard work on Twitter

Love your work JAG - much appreciated

Cheers

Frank & Bugs Bunny


View attachment 33591

All that liking & retweeting is making me thirsty - nice work there @JAG !

 

[MoneyBags1348]

Mate, I think that AVZ can expect nothing from the USA in the near term.
Despite a couple of high-level meetings in mid-2022 and early 2023, the USA has committed nothing to the DRC due to the DRC's endemic corruption. As US Sec of State Blinken said in mid-2022: US investment will come when corruption ends. That pretty much sums up where the USA stands on investing in the DRC.
Europe, Japan and Korea remain unconvinced about investing in the DRC, despite some initial interest, particularly from Panasonic and LG.
The neo-colonist Chinese, however remain committed to the DRC...committed to keeping the DRC impoverished, and exploiting and stealing everything they can lay their grubby hands on.

Unfortunately, at this stage of the game there are no white knights for AVZ.

Nonetheless, I remain positive that prior to the ICC mediations in mid-April, AVZ can negotiate and agree an outcome that all stakeholders can live with.

Cheers
F

Yes I have to agree Flight, all very sad and just makes me want to post what I think about the corruption in the DRC and how high up it goes. The last thing that pissed me off was Nicolas Kazadi's failure to acknowledge AVZ and his insinuation that the DRC wants more from its deals, when we know the DRC state owns Cominiere. I'm just going to post my usual again below:

DRC MINING WEEK
LUBUMBASHI JUNE 14-16 2023
ORGANISED BY THE VUKA GROUP - SPONSORED BY ZIGIN MINING
​

AVZ Minerals denied Mining License in the Democratic Republic Of Congo after DRC State owned Mining Company (Cominiere) illegally sells $150million worth of shares in Dathcom Mining to Chinese State owned Zigin Mining for $30million.


Over the last 6 years in the DRC AVZ Minerals has carried out
- Soil Sampling
- Mapping
- Consulting
- Drilling
- Metallurgical Testing
- A FEED Study

Securing a renewable 25-year lease on an Industrial Site
- For logistics activities related to an intermodal staging station
- Responsible for the commercial and operational management logistics
- Including road haulage, rail and port services and infrastructure maintenance
- Rehabilitation of the road from Manono

An Environmental Study and Impact Assessment Reports including
- 7 ESIA's and Groundwater Management

A 160-page Definitive Feasibility Study
- Received DFS Technical Approval

A SEZ Agreement
Tendering for Mining Infrastructure
Presenting at the Battery Minerals Conference
Legally Obtaining and Paying for an Increased Share of Dathcom
Legally Fulfilling all Requirements to Obtain the Mining License
Receiving the Ministerial Decree to Award the Mining License
Spending millions of dollars and Supporting the Local Community

Proving Financial Capability including
- Raising Capital
- Negotiating Funding with Pan African DFI’s
- Arranging funding and Offtake Agreements with CATH
- Obtaining Several Offtake Agreements for both Lithium and Tin

Producing an 85-page Sustainability Report committed to
- Environmental and Social Governance (ESG)
- Socio - economic benefits
- Preserving environmental values
- Providing a transparent and ethical supply chain
- Ending poverty
- Improving health and education
- Reducing inequality
- Contributing to economic growth
- Minimising greenhouse gas emissions
- Preserving biodiversity
- Restoring the Mpiana Mwanga Power Plant
- Supplying energy to local communities
- Making a positive contribution to the lives of people in the region
- Including direct and indirect employment opportunities
- Leaving a positive legacy for future generations
- Maintaining a strong sense of loyalty

 

[obe wan]

Highly unlikely that AVZ would burn through $240 million within months without the mining licence. If the mining licence is granted then the issues are likely substantially resolved anyway.

I am well aware of the percentages.

The Minister of Portfolio has always been against AVZ. Now the Minister of Mines has cancelled the decrees for the mining licence due to lack of cooperation. What percentage will AVZ control after Cominiere continue refusing to cooperate and the DRC Government strip the project? The answer is 0%.

As I said, I would be tempted to take the risk with the information that I have. AVZ seemed to have been caught off guard by the cancelling of the decrees. No one at a high level in the DRC Government seems to be willing to meet with AVZ. At least with the $240 million invested the Chinese would have some skin in the game.

ok, but you said 'we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million'

fact is that this $240m is for project development and not for AVZ operations or legal funds; the funds are for mining infrastructure , long lead time purchase agreements etc .. not sure CATH would be totally fine AVZ sitting back without a ML, using the cash for other purposes outside its actual intent.

As you say, 'If the mining license is granted then the issues are likely substantially resolved anyway' - yes and CATH probably thought that there was little risk considering AVZ had their technical applications ticked off...but obviously something changed which put the skids under that and the reins were pulled.

The risk aversion dial is a personal thing, dependent on how a win or lose effects ones or the company's (and its shareholders) financial situation.

i reckon this is one area which OMNI would have delved into if things went tits up

 

[Juba1845]

ok, but you said 'we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million'

fact is that this $240m is for project development and not for AVZ operations or legal funds; the funds are for mining infrastructure , long lead time purchase agreements etc .. not sure CATH would be totally fine AVZ sitting back without a ML, using the cash for other purposes outside its actual intent.

As you say, 'If the mining license is granted then the issues are likely substantially resolved anyway' - yes and CATH probably thought that there was little risk considering AVZ had their technical applications ticked off...but obviously something changed which put the skids under that and the reins were pulled.

The risk aversion dial is a personal thing, dependent on how a win or lose effects ones or the company's (and its shareholders) financial situation.

i reckon this is one area which OMNI would have delved into if things went tits up

Does the $20 million cancellation fee still apply ?

 

[Charbella]

Mate, I think that AVZ can expect nothing from the USA in the near term.
Despite a couple of high-level meetings in mid-2022 and early 2023, the USA has committed nothing to the DRC due to the DRC's endemic corruption. As US Sec of State Blinken said in mid-2022: US investment will come when corruption ends. That pretty much sums up where the USA stands on investing in the DRC.
Europe, Japan and Korea remain unconvinced about investing in the DRC, despite some initial interest, particularly from Panasonic and LG.
The neo-colonist Chinese, however remain committed to the DRC...committed to keeping the DRC impoverished, and exploiting and stealing everything they can lay their grubby hands on.

Unfortunately, at this stage of the game there are no white knights for AVZ.

Nonetheless, I remain positive that prior to the ICC mediations in mid-April, AVZ can negotiate and agree an outcome that all stakeholders can live with.

Cheers
F

Any chance we are working on reducing the CATH TIA down to 9%, until ICC is sorted. Seems like a wise move before mining license is issued.

 

[Flight996]

Any chance we are working on reducing the CATH TIA down to 9%, until ICC is sorted. Seems like a wise move before mining license is issued.

Honestly, I don't know shit about the in-camera negotiations currently being undertaken.

However, I think everything is on the table because of the complexity, uncertainty and number of stakeholders. There are many many moving parts to these negotiations. Herding cats comes to mind.

Management has previously acknowledged that CATH (read CATL) is more concerned with supply security than equity ownership. In this context, CATH's future percentage will undoubtedly be one of many negotiating points, particularly since it potentially frees up 15% of Dathcom for potential allocation to Comeneire and maybe Zijin if that's what it takes to avoid a complete disaster.

Edited @ 15:40

Cheers
F

 

[Xerof]

FMD, I'm sorry I threw an ear worm into the ether over whats happening or not, with CATH

Self-flagellation, 10 hail marys, and a grater wank should be enough penance

 

[MoneyBags1348]

FMD, I'm sorry I threw an ear worm into the ether over whats happening with CATH

Self-flagellation, 10 hail marys, and a grater wank should be enough penance

We aren’t screwed, some of us never give up

 

[Xerof]

An idea for the campaign - for each of Jags positive AVZ tweets (which are sourced from AVZ) a contra negative Zijin tweet on the same theme (which have been highlighted by the Congolese themselves) could immediately follow. Once there are a handful of these, rinse and repeat daily

Amen, and great work @JAG

Kunts
Sorry, regression to arsehole momentarily

 

[Coulomb]

An idea for the campaign - for each of Jags positive AVZ tweets (which are sourced from AVZ) a contra negative Zijin tweet on the same theme (which have been highlighted by the Congolese themselves) could immediately follow. Once there are a handful of these, rinse and repeat daily

I get a natural shot of dopamine for every positive AVZ tweet I engage with. It's the best thing I get to see on the internet.

 

[Doc]

Just my musings but a condition of the ML being granted is dependent on satisfying certain criteria. One being able to prove you can finance the build. We lose CATH we lose the ability to say we have 240m incoming for the build ( and thats a big chunk of it ) .
The detractors will jump all over this and push for AVZ to lose the tenement on these grounds ( as well as all the other crap they spruiking ) .
More Chinese shenanigans at play?

 

[wombat74]

Just my musings but a condition of the ML being granted is dependent on satisfying certain criteria. One being able to prove you can finance the build. We lose CATH we lose the ability to say we have 240m incoming for the build ( and thats a big chunk of it ) .
The detractors will jump all over this and push for AVZ to lose the tenement on these grounds ( as well as all the other crap they spruiking ) .
More Chinese shenanigans at play?

Why would CATH pull out? Makes zero sense . If AVZ get over the line they get the deal of the century . If AVZ goes arse end Charlie all bets are off anyway . I reckon we in are in for a big announcement in the coming days . This sh1t show is finally coming to an end . There will be no ICC . IMO

 

[MoneyBags1348]

An idea for the campaign - for each of Jags positive AVZ tweets (which are sourced from AVZ) a contra negative Zijin tweet on the same theme (which have been highlighted by the Congolese themselves) could immediately follow. Once there are a handful of these, rinse and repeat daily

Amen, and great work @JAG

Kunts
Sorry, regression to arsehole momentarily

What do you think of throwing in some comments about why BHP and FMG (two of the biggest miners in the world) have explored the idea of investing in the DRC but have held off due to the corruption.

BHP pulled out of investing in the Kamoa Kakula copper mine and Zigin bought in

Ironically for me is that I sold my BHP back at $33 so I could put more into AVZ

 

[obe wan]

Does the $20 million cancellation fee still apply ?

No ; both companies would need to agree to sign up again for another extension of fantasia ; the $20m cancellation would only apply if one of them decided to pull the pin during the extension period .