AVZ Discussion 2022

[Xerof]

 

[Pokok]

Wife comes home after work.

Walks down hall and opens door to internal garage and spots a 911.

Goes spare at hubby n says "when I come home tomorrow I want to open this door and find something for me that goes 0-100 in two seconds as well!'

Next day come home opens the hall door and theres a set of scales...

ohh ohh I have a great joke I have been married 3 times

 

[wombat74]

 

[Stockinvesting]

TO incoming. IMO.

It'll be in the vicinity of $1.10. IMO

I'll take it.

 

[ThisTimeWin]

Bad taste joke..

I'm a dwarf and cant take anymore of this AVZ shit n going to end it all

Gunna jump of a kerb

 

[John25]

Nut/Fox ....apparently best time for squid on a jetty in SA is before dawn .... some nice ones are jagged

 

[obe wan]

It'll be in the vicinity of $1.10. IMO

I'll take it.

If it was incoming I reckon they would have cancelled CATH and left it a clean slate for those acquiring ; when they score the mining licence , it will be worth more than that…. But to be honest i agrees with your previous post ; I was thinking possible TO prior to the extension flopping out

 

[ptlas]

If it was incoming I reckon they would have cancelled CATH and left it a clean slate for those acquiring ; when they score the mining licence , it will be worth more than that…. But to be honest i agrees with your previous post ; I was thinking possible TO prior to the extension flopping out

No western company would jump in this shit show without ML.
If the $240m is required in order to acquire the ML, then CATH are indispensable until that point.
IF AVZ gets rid of CATH then we'll be shooting ourselves in the foot with a $20m bullet.
They'll be around at least until ML.

 

[Mr Inappropriate]

If it was incoming I reckon they would have cancelled CATH and left it a clean slate for those acquiring ; when they score the mining licence , it will be worth more than that…. But to be honest i agrees with your previous post ; I was thinking possible TO prior to the extension flopping out

No-one is offering a T/O without the ML, shirley?

 

[obe wan]

No western company would jump in this shit show without ML.
If the $240m is required in order to acquire the ML, then CATH are indispensable until that point.
IF AVZ gets rid of CATH then we'll be shooting ourselves in the foot with a $20m bullet.
They'll be around at least until ML.

CAT or AVZ could have walked over the weekend or yesterday without any break fees needing to have been paid

 

[ptlas]

That neither did speaks volumes.
We still need $240m for development

 

[BRICK]

 

[Peterg]

View attachment 33614

Funny

 

[obe wan]

That neither did speaks volumes.
We still need $240m for development

Considering LTR is 20mt measured / 109mt infered , strip ratio 8:1 ; bulk will be underground mining , so recovery factor will be pretty shite and Albemarle hit them with a $5.5billion offer......then you have 24% of Manono ; which essentially is going to be 24% of Carrier or 24% of the entire tenement of well in excess of 1 billion tonne....for $240m ( with further payments) I reckon there's better deals out there than CATH

 

[ptlas]

Considering LTR is 20mt measured / 109mt infered , strip ratio 8:1 ; bulk will be underground mining , so recovery factor will be pretty shite and Albemarle hit them with a $5.5billion offer......then you have 24% of Manono ; which essentially is going to be 24% of Carrier or 24% of the entire tenement of well in excess of 1 billion tonne....for $240m ( with further payments) I reckon there's better deals out there than CATH

Certainly.
But not before ML imo.
We're not in WA

 

[DoubleA]

ok, but you said 'we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million'

fact is that this $240m is for project development and not for AVZ operations or legal funds; the funds are for mining infrastructure , long lead time purchase agreements etc .. not sure CATH would be totally fine AVZ sitting back without a ML, using the cash for other purposes outside its actual intent.

As you say, 'If the mining license is granted then the issues are likely substantially resolved anyway' - yes and CATH probably thought that there was little risk considering AVZ had their technical applications ticked off...but obviously something changed which put the skids under that and the reins were pulled.

The risk aversion dial is a personal thing, dependent on how a win or lose effects ones or the company's (and its shareholders) financial situation.

i reckon this is one area which OMNI would have delved into if things went tits up

AVZ's operations ARE to develop the project. The exact capex/opex split or any detailed requirements have not been released by AVZ.

An extra $240 million of a liquid financial assets improves AVZ's flexibility.

Having an extra $240 million to continue to develop the project frees up other funds NOT included in that $240 million, to be spent on other things such as legal costs if required.

 

[obe wan]

AVZ's operations ARE to develop the project. The exact capex/opex split or any detailed requirements have not been released by AVZ.

An extra $240 million of a liquid financial assets improves AVZ's flexibility.

Having an extra $240 million to continue to develop the project frees up other funds NOT included in that $240 million, to be spent on other things such as legal costs if required.

CAPEX costs on a 4.5mtpa plant was at $545m about two years ago ; that figure will now be closer to about $650-700m ;expectations / rumours are that AVZ will go for a 10mtpa plant off the bat, so realistically it will be over a billion and cash is now more expensive ; won't operate straight up at that nameplate, but will get the bulk of the plant up and progressively ramp it.

I've been involved in a number of large scale mining projects from precontracts through procurements stages and into construct ; $240m will get eaten up on CAPEX within a few months, they’ll burn that in about 8 months ; $240m into a $800m++ bill, particularly when they now need to rapidly accelerate the project, they won't notice that money coming in through the front door and out through the back.

AVZ is not Dathcom, CATHs $240m is to DATHCOM, not AVZ, AVZ will need to find some cash of their own ; without a ML they’d struggle to raise capital and I very much doubt that Mr Pei would allow AVZ to put down assets generated through his funding injection into Dathcom as security again debt funds

 

[LX600]

CAPEX costs on a 4.5mtpa plant was at $545m about two years ago ; that figure will now be closer to about $650-700m ;expectations / rumours are that AVZ will go for a 10mtpa plant off the bat, so realistically it will be over a billion and cash is now more expensive ; won't operate straight up at that nameplate, but will get the bulk of the plant up and progressively ramp it.

I've been involved in a number of large scale mining projects from precontracts through procurements stages and into construct ; $240m will get eaten up on CAPEX within a few months, they’ll burn that in about 8 months ; $240m into a $800m++ bill, particularly when they now need to rapidly accelerate the project, they won't notice that money coming in through the front door and out through the back.

AVZ is not Dathcom, CATHs $240m is to DATHCOM, not AVZ, AVZ will need to find some cash of their own ; without a ML they’d struggle to raise capital and I very much doubt that Mr Pei would allow AVZ to put down assets generated through his funding injection into Dathcom as security again debt funds

Cath $240m is to AVZ not dathcom

 

[DoubleA]

CAPEX costs on a 4.5mtpa plant was at $545m about two years ago ; that figure will now be closer to about $650-700m ;expectations / rumours are that AVZ will go for a 10mtpa plant off the bat, so realistically it will be over a billion and cash is now more expensive ; won't operate straight up at that nameplate, but will get the bulk of the plant up and progressively ramp it.

I've been involved in a number of large scale mining projects from precontracts through procurements stages and into construct ; $240m will get eaten up on CAPEX within a few months, they’ll burn that in about 8 months ; $240m into a $800m++ bill, particularly when they now need to rapidly accelerate the project, they won't notice that money coming in through the front door and out through the back.

AVZ is not Dathcom, CATHs $240m is to DATHCOM, not AVZ, AVZ will need to find some cash of their own ; without a ML they’d struggle to raise capital and I very much doubt that Mr Pei would allow AVZ to put down assets generated through his funding injection into Dathcom as security again debt funds

You are misunderstanding what I am saying.

AVZ are not going to spend $500m+ without the mining license. If the mining license is granted then the issues are substantially resolved anyway.

I am referring to a situation (the current situation) where the mining license has NOT been granted. I would like:

- AVZ not to be the only one who loses out big time if the project goes south
- Increased influence through investment of a powerful partner
- AVZ not running down to the last dollar and running the risk of becoming insolvent

 

[wombat74]

CAPEX costs on a 4.5mtpa plant was at $545m about two years ago ; that figure will now be closer to about $650-700m ;expectations / rumours are that AVZ will go for a 10mtpa plant off the bat, so realistically it will be over a billion and cash is now more expensive ; won't operate straight up at that nameplate, but will get the bulk of the plant up and progressively ramp it.

I've been involved in a number of large scale mining projects from precontracts through procurements stages and into construct ; $240m will get eaten up on CAPEX within a few months, they’ll burn that in about 8 months ; $240m into a $800m++ bill, particularly when they now need to rapidly accelerate the project, they won't notice that money coming in through the front door and out through the back.

AVZ is not Dathcom, CATHs $240m is to DATHCOM, not AVZ, AVZ will need to find some cash of their own ; without a ML they’d struggle to raise capital and I very much doubt that Mr Pei would allow AVZ to put down assets generated through his funding injection into Dathcom as security again debt funds

Isn't CATH putting up around $500mil . $24O MIL FOR 24% and the rest towards construction . Nigel also mentioned another $500 mil through African lenders ready to go . Money not an issue .