AVZ needs to retain 51% majority JV control….so they won’t agree to finalise the 24% to CATH until they have full and final court decision on 75% ownership. As it stands 60% is undisputed so max they would agree to sell to CATH until highest court confirms the 75% is a sale of 9% to CATH. And we are told CATH are good with that as their main requirement is guaranteed Offtake. My opinion is if that’s the case do a Offtake Prepayment Agreement and take the ownership out of the transaction and proceed with guaranteed funding based on Offtake.
I am well aware of that. It would be a risk I would be tempted to take with the information I have.
Is there a chance AVZ could end up with less than 50% doing this? Yes.
We have good legal title to 75% and first right of refusal to Cominiere's share. For us to go under 50% we would have to lose to Dathomir AND Zijin. It is possible that this could happen in the DRC due to the corruption, but we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million. Don't forget that if we continue to fuck around for years on end and run out of money, there is a real risk that we could lose the whole project.
1. The $240 million gives us time/options and prevents the Chinese from being able to easily wait until we run out of money (one of the possibilities that scares me most).
2. Having CATH invest $240 million means it is not only little AVZ who has a lot to lose if the project goes south. CATH are more powerful and have more influence than AVZ. I believe CATH met with the President at one stage. To me it is not only spreading the risk, but also decreasing it due to this increased power/influence.
3. The risk of AVZ going to under 50% control of Dathcom is a possibility, but it is not the worst possibility out there. I would much prefer to risk this than risk losing the project. The Chinese would build the mine quick and get things operational in record time. They would probably fuck around with transfer pricing etc, so we would not receive full value, but shareholders would likely still do well.
I look at examples like Komoa:
a joint venture between Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Zijin Mining Group (39.6%), Crystal River Global Limited (0.8%) and the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (20%)
Not ideal, but not the worst outcome.
AVZ has been suspended for almost a year. I want to get things moving.