AVZ Discussion 2022

[ptlas]

I think shorters realise by now they have no way out of this . They are screwed .

Wombie, you seem to maintain a healthy scepticism (or cynicism) not dissimilar to mine.
Just wondering what guestimate you have for the price should we be bought out and never trade again.
Fine if you don't wanna say, or already have.
Just asking for a friend.

 

[TheCount]

I've had a good search using the keywords I thought would bring it up. I also have looked through a private chat I have with some mates for AVZ and couldn't find anything there either. From memory it was posted here and it was for around 1m to 1.5m shares done after market. I also vaguely remember checking it myself on the Commsec app to make sure it was real. But I can't find any proof that it happened so maybe I dreamt it haha

Thanks CD - there's something happening behind the scenes as referencing a post from MoneyBags I jumped on https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/avz and it has last traded as this morning at 7am .. .. .. ..

Much digging to be done..

TC.

 

[Stockinvesting]

Wombie, you seem to maintain a healthy scepticism (or cynicism) not dissimilar to mine.
Just wondering what guestimate you have for the price should we be bought out and never trade again.
Fine if you don't wanna say, or already have.
Just asking for a friend.

IMO, we'll be bought out at around 90c (approximately 15% premium).

As I've stated before, very happy with $1. Even at that price, the vast majority of LTH 's would be in the black by a healthy margin.

 

[Chilla]

IMO, we'll be bought out at around 90c (approximately 15% premium).

As I've stated before, very happy with $1. Even at that price, the vast majority of LTH 's would be in the black by a healthy margin.

No chance an offer of that nature would ever make it to shareholders......Nige wouldnt give it 1 second of consideration before tossing it in the bin

 

[Misfits]

No chance an offer of that nature would ever make it to shareholders......Nige wouldnt give it 1 second of consideration before tossing it in the bin

Agree, $2 min

 

[Juba1845]

Wombie, you seem to maintain a healthy scepticism (or cynicism) not dissimilar to mine.
Just wondering what guestimate you have for the price should we be bought out and never trade again.
Fine if you don't wanna say, or already have.
Just asking for a friend.

At a complete guess : With ML $2 - $3 . Without ML l don't know but obviously quite a bit less.

 

[Sparrowhawk12]

IMO, we'll be bought out at around 90c (approximately 15% premium).

As I've stated before, very happy with $1. Even at that price, the vast majority of LTH 's would be in the black by a healthy margin.

$10
$10
$10
or $12 if you are Ziljin

 

[Uglybob]

Some interesting background info. Nothing specific, but helps understand a lot.

 

[Scoota30]

Agree, $2 min

IMO $10B USD min with ML in hand and updated BFS, Hydroxide facility study and 10mtpa study. Anything less with ML in hand is a sin.

$10B USD = $14.2B AUD
$14.2B / 3.5B SOI = $4 TO target Minimum.

IMO IMO IMO IMO

 

[PutUsernameHere]

So, let's break this down a bit:-

ASX Trading volumes

Explains what data is distributed by the ASX.

To save you a little time, there is a line in there that clearly says:-

"Monthly trading volumes include all trades occurring within a particular month, including those conducted off-market."

So, does that mean when I download the ASX activity from my Commsec account and AVZ doesn't show (as we're in suspension) that there has been zero activity - on or off-market?

Note: AVZ has not been in the daily download since May 2022 and John25 may correct me here, but isn't that 37 weeks ago?

If these so-called off-market buyers had bought shares, wouldn't it show up?

Asking for a friend.
TC.

There's not a heap of overall change, but shorting position has supposedly gone down since the original suspension so trading off-market must be happening somewhere for those bumps where positions are closed. Admittedly I can't find daily figures, but on the 22nd Dec is looks like around 43M short position was closed out, followed by a new short position of 41M taken up on the 23rd...

 

[Remark]

Solidarity brothers and sisters, we have some unwanted attention from this absolute tosser....

 

[Charbella]

I will make a call to AVZ today and report back. The email is 100% scam.
Clearly not the brightest guy if he thinks the email is legit.

I called the number and it went to Ben’s message bank. Left a message, will report back.

 

[Chilla]

IMO $10B USD min with ML in hand and updated BFS, Hydroxide facility study and 10mtpa study. Anything less with ML in hand is a sin.

$10B USD = $14.2B AUD
$14.2B / 3.5B SOI = $4 TO target Minimum.

IMO IMO IMO IMO

Would have to be all cash offer and done and dusted quickly for that to get up as the project becomes more valuable as the market deficit increases and the projects development progresses

 

[obe wan]

My thinking is that in the event the ML is not forthcoming we will sell what we have / bought out by the Chinese . So makes sense to drill the sh1t out of it while we wait and add as much value as we can . This could be plan B imo .

Yep ; I heard they dropped one through the northern area in the recent campaign early

One thing I can confirm is that total short positions have moved around during suspension and are lower than when we started. So some trading whether through cross trades or done off market is occurring imo
View attachment 28404

ye I remember that short movement , however that seemed to have been an administration screwup as a number of stocks had a significant movement in short positions over the same time , until shortman fixed them all and they basically returned to the previous value, albeit AVZ was a little lower by about 4 million.

 

[TheCount]

Solidarity brothers and sisters, we have some unwanted attention from this absolute tosser....

View attachment 28410

Wonder how his Court case is going...

TC.

 

[Thaz]

IMO $10B USD min with ML in hand and updated BFS, Hydroxide facility study and 10mtpa study. Anything less with ML in hand is a sin.

$10B USD = $14.2B AUD
$14.2B / 3.5B SOI = $4 TO target Minimum.

IMO IMO IMO IMO

That, imo, is reasonable.

PLS is currently at 14B market Cap.

for AVZ to get there - it'll need to increase SP by 7x.

= $5.46.

allow a 20% discount for not being in production which would be also offset, somewhat, by the resource and hopefully the updated DFS/BFS.

= $4.368.

 

[Scoota30]

That, imo, is reasonable.

PLS is currently at 14B market Cap.

for AVZ to get there - it'll need to increase SP by 7x.

= $5.46.

allow a 20% discount for not being in production which would be also offset, somewhat, by the resource and hopefully the updated DFS/BFS.

= $4.368.

Would be an absolute steal in the long run for whoever could end up grabbing it for that price, but i have been swayed heavily into the TO once ML crowd as long as it gets flicked in quick time like @Chilla says. a 5x return from where we are right now at 70c to be done with this, i don't think you'll catch too many people complaining.

I don't have half as much faith anymore in the BoD, the DRC Gov and the chinese interference to try to take this to mine ourselves. Sell it to a big boy like RIO and let them deal with it.

 

[Stockinvesting]

No chance an offer of that nature would ever make it to shareholders......Nige wouldnt give it 1 second of consideration before tossing it in the bin

I know it's low ball Chilla.

That's my point.

No ML. No TO in vicinity of crazy predictions like $2 to $5.

It just isn't realistic. Chinese choking us, in for the long, long game. DRC corruption entrenched.

I believe I'm close to being on the money. Wish I didn't.

 

[Samus]

Would be an absolute steal in the long run for whoever could end up grabbing it for that price, but i have been swayed heavily into the TO once ML crowd as long as it gets flicked in quick time like @Chilla says. a 5x return from where we are right now at 70c to be done with this, i don't think you'll catch too many people complaining.

I don't have half as much faith anymore in the BoD, the DRC Gov and the chinese interference to try to take this to mine ourselves. Sell it to a big boy like RIO and let them deal with it.

This is the sensible path forward imo. Sell it to a major with a MC larger than the DRC's GDP.
Doubtful you'll see the sort of shenanigans afforded to a pissant explorer like AVZ by the criminals over there.
That's if they'll take it at a reasonable price after the sort of shit we've witnessed over the past 10+ months.
Personally I could live with $1 plus with anything more being a bonus. Beats loosing the lot which seems just as likely as any potential takeover right now. I'll take 50c over pissing my initial investment down the drain and put it down to experience.
The fact that neither the board nor the DRC can get this over the line to everybody's benefit in a red hot lithium market tells me everything I need to know.

Still prefer $10 or $12 to zijin though Wino...

 

[Chilla]

I know it's low ball Chilla.

That's my point.

No ML. No TO in vicinity of crazy predictions like $2 to $5.

It just isn't realistic. Chinese choking us, in for the long, long game. DRC corruption entrenched.

I believe I'm close to being on the money. Wish I didn't.

They wont sell it unless at least 66-75% confirmed, ML rec'd, 10MTPA BFS done, Resource Upgrade done, PLS Study done, SEZ awarded. That is why $4-5 is a reasonable range if someone wants to buy it. A lot of that is done or nearly done and awaits ML for release, hence the $8mil spend per quarter on exploration and studies to have it all ready to go as soon as ML awarded.