From the Equities Club this morning
AVZ’s Manono gets even messier — KoBold makes its move
Last week, Donald Trump muscled into the
AVZ Minerals' saga. This week, Bill Gates fancied a piece of the world's largest hard rock lithium deposit. The battle for Manono just went from wild to surreal.
The Gates-backed
KoBold Metals has now thrown their hat into the ring, bidding for a majority stake in the monster Congolese lithium project. The US-based private company wants to buy in through
Cominiere, the state-owned company with 30% of the asset.
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The never ending saga of Manono. Source: Bloomberg
Why is this huge? KoBold is one of the most well-capitalised and technically sophisticated entrants in the critical minerals space. Their interest validates the scale and strategic importance of Manono.
Rarely has a mining asset become such a geopolitical prize. The US wants Manono out of Chinese hands, and Western governments are keenly aware of what's at stake - the world's largest hardrock lithium deposit in an increasingly lithium-hungry world.
With a resource of over 400Mt at 1.65% Li₂O, Manono remains one of the most coveted lithium assets on the planet. The fact that KoBold would enter this legal minefield speaks volumes about the deposit's significance.
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KoBold would welcome the opportunity to develop the asset.”
- KoBold Chief Legal Officer Sandy Alexander wrote to Congo President Felix Tshisekedi’s chief of staff in January 2025
The possibility of KoBold unlocking this asset with the technical and financial support of Silicon Valley's cleantech elite may accelerate development and revive stalled infrastructure planning.
The implications for AVZ shareholders are complex.
It's unlikely KoBold would buy out AVZ directly, as AVZ's equity interest in Manono has been under dispute since 2022. Instead, KoBold's deal appears aimed at acquiring control through Cominiere, effectively bypassing AVZ altogether.
Unfrotunately this raises the possibility that AVZ shareholders could be
sidelined entirely,unless the company succeeds in international arbitration or reaches a negotiated settlement. Both of which are very possible outcomes.
If AVZ wins its case or forces a settlement, compensation could come from Cominiere, the DRC government, or potentially KoBold, depending on how many overlapping claims are resolved.
However, if KoBold moves forward and AVZ is unable to reassert its ownership stake, shareholders could be left holding equity in a company with no asset. The next 3–6 months are crucial, with arbitration outcomes and political negotiations likely to determine whether AVZ shareholders recover any value.
The Manono saga has now drawn in Chinese mining giants, the US government, a tech billionaire, and 21,000 stranded shareholders. The world's biggest lithium deposit has become a corporate and geopolitical battlefield.
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The legal win last week was further validation in AVZ’s management to pursue Manono. Source: Reuters.com