Update of regression model REVENUE projections based on quarterly data:
Adding in the last 6 months revenue data gives the FY24 revenue at $92.0m. This means that H2FY24 was $49.8m. This has not been given in quarterly amounts so I've split it (making estimates) of $23.9 Q3FY24 and $25.9m Q4FY24 based on the underlying trend and April reported record.
Up to the end of H1FY24 the (quadratic) regression model had an x^2 coefficient of
0.0352.
After adding the new data up to end of FY24 the model had an x^2 coefficient of
0.0399.
This shows that the last two quarters showed
an increase in the rate of increase.
Again. This means the
growth is not slowing,
it is still accelerating.
The model uses all the data dating back to the first reported quarterly values. This means it is now based on 84 quarters - 7 years data.
Because of the continuing rate of increase of the growth, the model lags in its projections. It projects what we should expect if the rate of growth remain steady. PNV rate of growth has grown continually. Despite this lag, it is very useful. It wasn't built to project accurately, it was designed to test if growth exceeded projections. PNV continues to do so quarter on quarter.
Projections:
The model previously projected FY24 at $85.7m and FY25 at $114.5m
Using updated figures the model projected FY24 at $88.9m (actual $92.0) and FY25 at $120.3m.
This means that by including these last half revenue numbers the FY25 projections are now up $5.8m. Every time new data is added the model steps up its projections for the future.
i.e. Growth on growth continues!
Hope this is useful.
I've got my own PNV but most is in a "kids trust" account. I don't think mine will make me rich overnight, but they've got the time to be patient ![Smile :) :)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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