AVZ Discussion 2022

[Shire]

Yes, the moral of the story is kikki is giving KOBOLD a veil warning to respect AVZ legal rights, however i disagree with the last part of your sentence whereby you dont think kobold would go behind AVZ back, were they not the dudes who had a sniff thru our core library 12 - 18 months ago without authority ?

Were they not the dudes who trumpeted that a deal with AVZ was a lay down misere on their socials last month or thereabouts ?

Wouldnt trust them with a choir girl.

just sayin.

Hey Beish, my recollection was that when Nigel was asked whether anyone had illegally accessed our core library, the response was cleverly worded. Something like no one had accessed our core library ‘without AVZ’s permission’. I took it that AVZ was working with KoBold long before we formally found out about it.

Could be wrong, and happy to be corrected.

 

[Mouthpiecenomnom]

Hey Beish, my recollection was that when Nigel was asked whether anyone had illegally accessed our core library, the response was cleverly worded. Something like no one had accessed our core library ‘without AVZ’s permission’. I took it that AVZ was working with KoBold long before we formally found out about it.

Could be wrong, and happy to be corrected.

It was "without our knowledge" I think. Correct me if I am wrong. That is a very different connotation. I am convinced that Kobold were up to some classic tree shake shenanigans earlier on. Playbook stuff. Managed to make some itchy palms whinge (hey Karen lady and Jens) ? Weird shit with the forum? I'm not even mad that's just fair play as far as I'm concerned. They figured out it was folly and were wasting their time. AVZ are a hard boiled lot altogether plus we are unlisted.

 

[ptlas]

It was "without our knowledge" I think. Correct me if I am wrong. That is a very different connotation. I am convinced that Kobold were up to some classic tree shake shenanigans earlier on. Playbook stuff. Managed to make some itchy palms whinge (hey Karen lady and Jens) ? Weird shit with the forum? I'm not even mad that's just fair play as far as I'm concerned. They figured out it was folly and were wasting their time. AVZ are a hard boiled lot altogether plus we are unlisted.

And where were KoBold when Locke were pi...ng us about?

 

[bloke383]

From our mate Jonnno

https://x.com/jonnnono/status/1945498520829755770

It wouldn't be a smart move by Kobold to try & pull a swifty on AVZ especially after they signed this .

 

[Xerof]

And where were KoBold when Locke were pi...ng us about?

I’m sure they would have been told by Celistine, who escorted them through the tenement, to just wait until AVZ go broke, then you can come and talk to me. IIRC, they never declared an interest until CATH provided the funding…….

 

[j.l]

[0:00:00 – 0:00:10]
Welcome to Vugab World Affair TV,
your French-speaking media outlet committed to unfiltered geopolitical analysis—
where truths are told, silences broken, and masks removed.


[0:00:10 – 0:00:27]
Today, we take you to the heart of an explosive episode that unfolded
behind the scenes of international diplomacy in Doha, Qatar,
where the Kigali regime—represented by Paul Kagame
and his former foreign minister Vincent Biruta—experienced
one of its biggest diplomatic setbacks.


[0:00:27 – 0:00:38]
In the middle of peace negotiations on the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo,
Rwanda attempted to propose something shocking:
to grant control of North and South Kivu to the armed group M23 for several years.


[0:00:38 – 0:00:44]
This attempt to legitimize military occupation was immediately and firmly rejected
by the Congolese delegation.


[0:00:47 – 0:00:56]
That rejection provoked a furious outburst from Vincent Biruta,
who stood up to leave the room—
until an American representative sharply rebuked him with a line
that will go down in history:
"This is not Angola. Sit down, or you and your president will be punished."


[0:01:04 – 0:01:13]
It was an unprecedented humiliation—
a public diplomatic slap,
and above all a strong signal that the international community
is finally starting to say no to Kigali’s maneuvers.


[0:01:15 – 0:01:27]
Make yourself comfortable,
because this report reveals the tensions of that diplomatic standoff,
its deep geopolitical implications,
and what it means for the future of Kivu, the DRC, and the Kagame regime.

---

Key Events Covered in the Following Sections:​

[0:01:27 – 0:02:12]

• During the Doha peace talks, Rwanda (led by Vincent Biruta) proposed
  M23 control of eastern provinces for "8 years,"
  which shocked all attendees.
• The Congolese delegation immediately rejected it,
  calling it a shameful attempt to legalize occupation.
• M23 is accused of war crimes, massacres, and displacement.

[0:02:12 – 0:03:12]

• A Congolese diplomat reportedly said:
  “Kivu will never be handed over to disguised mercenaries,
  not for a second—let alone 8 years.”

[0:03:12 – 0:03:47]

• Biruta, visibly angry, stood up and threatened to leave the talks.
• But the U.S. special envoy, Massad Boulos, stopped him firmly:
  “This isn’t Angola. Sit down, or you and your president will face consequences.”

[0:03:47 – 0:04:08]

• Humiliated, Biruta returned to his seat.
• The U.S. envoy continued:
  “You’re treating peace like a joke.
  Do you think the Washington Agreement is a puppet show?
  You’re here to honor commitments, not sidestep them.”

---

Broader Implications Discussed:​

[0:04:08 – 0:05:06]

• The moment marks a symbolic turning point.
• Kagame and his regime—once shielded by international networks—are growing isolated.
• Even the U.S., traditionally quiet, is now demanding accountability.
• The international community is no longer buying the narrative
  that the M23’s actions are justified for "security."

[0:05:06 – 0:06:08]

• Kigali’s strategy is increasingly seen as a masked long-term occupation.
• Reports from the UN, NGOs, and former allies show Kigali supports M23,
  despite official denials.
• The Doha proposal aimed to legitimize this occupation diplomatically,
  after failing militarily.

[0:06:08 – 0:07:13]

• The U.S. tone at Doha broke with years of diplomatic leniency toward Rwanda.
• The phrase “Sit down or be punished” showed major powers are out of patience.
• The Washington agreements are now seen as a red line.

[0:07:13 – 0:08:08]

• Rwanda’s diplomatic credibility is damaged.
• Biruta’s behavior revealed Rwanda’s assumption that it could act with impunity.
• But in Doha, they faced a structured, international diplomatic framework
  unwilling to play by those rules.

[0:08:08 – 0:09:13]

• The DRC’s delegation is now seen as credible and unified.
• Evidence of war crimes by M23 is taken seriously—
  including mass graves, survivor testimonies, and humanitarian alerts.

[0:09:13 – 0:09:56]

• The incident could shift regional dynamics.
• Countries like Angola and members of the East African Community (EAC),
  including Tanzania and Burundi, may distance themselves from Kigali.
• Even BRICS and emerging powers may reconsider their alignment.

---

Final Statements:​

[0:09:56 – end]

• This could mark the beginning of the end of Kagame’s impunity.
• International justice (CPI), sanctions, and alliances may shift.
• “At Doha, the mask came off. Kivu will not be negotiated like merchandise.”
• For the first time in a long time, Rwanda is being held accountable.

https://x.com/StanysBujakera/status/1945571035090489496?s=19

 

[Shire]

From August on X following Rwanda’s ratification of the peace deal. Thanks to Cumquat Capital for asking the question.

https://x.com/augustcohen4/status/1945603031220822304?s=46

The primary thing now is the following per side:

1) DRC side
Step 1: DRC Parliament must debate and ratify the
peace agreement.
Step 2: DRC gov't must create a plan to execute its
primary commitments (ie, demobilize FDLR)
Step 3: DRC must appoint officials to the Joint
Security Coordination Mechanism by July 27th and
the to the Joint Operations Committee.

2) Rwandan side
Step 1: Rwanda gov't must create a plan to execute
it's primary commitments (ie, withdraw all RDF
troops and arms in DRC and on border back to
barracks).
Step 2: Rwanda must appoint officials to the Joint
Security Coordination Mechanism by July 27th and
to the Joint Operations Committee.

3) US-Qatar-AU side
Step 1: Assign officials to the Joint Security
Coordination Mechanism and Joint Operations
Committee
Step 2: Get DRC and Rwanda to agree to the
sequencing of their commitments - ie, who
must do X which then triggers Y.
Step 3: Monitor who is abiding by the
commitments and who is not.
Step 4: Conclude a critical mineral agreement with
DRC (tied to resolving Manono).
Step 5: Conclude a mineral processing + migrant
relocation deal with Rwanda (which unlocks
on-hold Qatar investment in its aviation sector)

As a note, think of the JSCM as the Prosecutor in this "case" (ie, it will uncover the facts re: who is abiding by the terms of the agreement and who is not) and the JOC as the Judge (ie, it will decide who is is abiding by the agreement, who is not, and issue "rulings" to the effect and with them....punishment).

Let me know if you have any further questions before I leave for vacay and go silent on Twitter on July 30th until Aug 30th.

(ps: It is very possible the critical minerals deal will also require ratification by the DRC Parliament but will depend on how the DRC gov't will give preferential access to its minerals to the US.)

 

[Remark]

https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1945650089403253123

 

[wombat74]

View attachment 88584

https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1945650089403253123

"We gringos "

August getting high on his own supply again .

 

[Jongo]

I️t is 5:28 am in Doha atm ... after brekky they will be back to it. At least they have not spat the dummy again and gone home.

What Might Unfold on 17 July

1. Compromise on Territorial Control

• Breakthrough potential: Mediators may propose a phased administrative transition, granting M23 temporary local authority in parts of North and South Kivu for 2–4 years instead of 8.
• Why it matters: A shorter transition is more palatable to Kinshasa and could unlock agreement on reintegration terms.

2. Reintegration Mechanism Finalization

• M23 commanders may be offered roles in local governance or security coordination, contingent on disarmament.
• There’s talk of a joint monitoring body co-chaired by neutral parties (possibly AU or Qatari observers).

3. Justice Framework Calibration

• Progress could hinge on agreeing to selective amnesty tied to reconciliation processes—especially for rank-and-file M23 members versus top commanders.
• DRC may insist on retaining jurisdiction over crimes against civilians or regional violations.

Why Today’s Window Matters

• The U.S. and Qatar had positioned 16–17 July as the final window before launching the Heads of State Protocol—the next phase of enforcing the Washington Accord.
• If M23 reaches agreement today or tomorrow, it allows for:
  • Full activation of U.S. investment guarantees
  • Finalization of KoBold Metals’ corridor logistics
  • Reduction in humanitarian disruption across eastern Congo

 

[Randenj]

View attachment 88584

https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1945650089403253123

lack of clarity: does 'neither' mean:
Option A: both parties muck around, so 'gringos disengage'
or
Option B: only one of the parties have to muck around before 'gringos disengage'

 

[Remark]

lack of clarity: does 'neither' mean:
Option A: both parties muck around, so 'gringos disengage'
or
Option B: only one of the parties have to muck around before 'gringos disengage'

I read that as Option B, although I agree it's not terribly clear

 

[wombat74]

lack of clarity: does 'neither' mean:
Option A: both parties muck around, so 'gringos disengage'
or
Option B: only one of the parties have to muck around before 'gringos disengage'

or
Option C : August is talking through a hole in his head .

I'll go with C

 

[Randenj]

I read that as Option B, although I agree it's not terribly clear

Unfortunately, I do too and given the leopards are unlikely to change their spots........

 

[Scoota30]

I read that as Option B, although I agree it's not terribly clear

I too read it as "if the peace deal that has been agreed upon in principle, isn't followed to what is agreed upon from both sides within the time stipulated, the peace deal would fall through/lapse".

Think of it like an MoU and not a binding agreement yet

 

[wombat74]

What does the US want ? Minerals . Felix asked for security . Manono is far away from the war zone . The US can start by taking Manono . Kobold dates back to the middle of last year .

 

[wombat74]

"The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended an offer to the US, proposing exclusive access to its critical minerals and infrastructure projects, reported Bloomberg.

In return, the DRC is seeking security assistance to combat a rebellion that is allegedly supported by Rwanda.

In a direct appeal, Congo has requested an urgent meeting between President Felix Tshisekedi and US President Donald Trump

The proposed pact is expected to grant US companies privileged access to minerals essential for the global energy transition.

The request, conveyed in a letter to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, underscores the DRC’s pressing need for support as it contends with internal conflict.

Congo’s mining sector, a significant source of copper, is currently dominated by Chinese companies.

A partnership with the US will enable Congo to diversify its economic alliances and reduce China’s influence.

The proposal includes operational control for US companies, “exclusive” extraction and export rights, participation in a deep-water port project and the creation of a joint strategic mineral stockpile.

In exchange for these economic opportunities, the US would provide military training, equipment, and direct security assistance including access to military bases to protect strategic resources."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

US attempting to clean up the sh1t fight first , but this is initially a Security for Minerals Deal at the request of Felix . I don't think for a minute the US is going to walk away from those critical minerals and let China rule the world .

 

[JNRB]

The newest from our friend KIKI

https://x.com/KiengeKki/status/1945404980136943776

I always assumed Kiki was from DRC.
Now I wonder if he's actually ever even been there...

 

[hedrox]

I always assumed Kiki was from DRC.
Now I wonder if he's actually ever even been there...

he is from the DRC

 

[JNRB]

he is from the DRC

(Yes I know. Questioning that fact was simply meant to point out the absurdity of Kiki's statement highlighted in the screenshot which is in direct contrast to what has happened to AVZ)