AVZ Discussion 2022

[cruiser51]

I think the probability of Zijin completely throwing in the towel and walking away from Manono is very minimal.

They'll push forward with development of the north, aiming to be such a fact on the ground that they'll not be dislodged with ease. They'll then look to fight for that zone, or at least part of it, whether through negotiations or legal actions.

China play the long game, and i think they'll look to try and control the north directly, and the south at least indirectly - if not directly down the line.

But I feel there's still a path forward here that ends with AVZ getting a reasonable outcome for us long-suffering shareholders, even with that scenario playing out.

I concur, therefore I believe AVZ/Cath has to continue to keep their cards close to the chest and move as fast as possible on all fronts being in the DRC, the arbitration courts and China. Definitely without Zijin and/or Cominiere.

In regards of the MoM, so far he had to play with the cards handed to him and he has shown he is as useful as a tit with fingers.
So I would also exclude him out of the discussions.

I wonder how Cami is dealing with CKK totally 'forgetting' he has to hand 10% of his illegal venture to Cami. Very fucking funny.
At the end of the day you can't share something illegally acquired with the Government, without making the Government an accomplice.
Stupid idjets!

CKK has now visions to become an electricity supplier.
It would be the first electrical mob with an unemployable rock polisher in charge.
If I was the Tanganyika government, I would keep an eye on CKK and make sure he doesn't steel the copper out of the transformers and the HV transmission lines.

I wonder who had his/her hands up CKK's arse to move his lips this time.

 

[JNRB]

In my opinion CATH are positioning for acquisition. Imo there's on going negotiations between avz and drc re. Mining licence and one of the questions that has come from drc is how on earth are you going to fund and build this? Avz responded by getting clarity on the partnership with CATH to show drc government the means.

However, I also believe that CATH fully intend to gain full control of as much of the project as they can. My rationale here is I don't see them needing avz at all in the picture. The only value we bring is the fact we own the project. The long term value to CATH by owning the additional % in the project even if it is the lower of the theorised %'s significantly outweighs the price that most shareholders would probably accept. If that is the case then the next thing I would ask is, is it possible in terms of capital for CATH and that answer is definitely yes. Tldr; that it makes no sense for avz to retain any % as this is against the desires for all parties involved.

Zijin needs ownership because they only profit from SELLING the rocks.
CATH (IMO) doesn't care as much about ownership as long as they GET the rocks.

So as long as they know they have that secured, I dont think they really benefit from trying to buy AVZ out completely at this point.

The way the geopolitical landscape is heading it may even offer some advantages to them to be JV with an Aussie company rather than fully Chinese owned. And let's not forget Aussies are no slouches either when it comes to mining.

5-7 years down the line, when mine is producing (and maybe hydroxide plant), the macro climate has settled a bit, and CATH is nearing the end of their exclusive offtake period maybe they'll be more inclined to push to take the whole thing over, if they think its required to keep their required supply going.

The only other reason would be to stop AVZ selling to someone else. We know there are limitations on who CATH can sell to, nothing about AVZ tho. Also dont know it this partnership gives CATH ROFR. But if anyone else decided to make an offer for AVZ's share, CATH can still step in and match/beat it if and when it happens.

 

[Goldenboy]

Welcome to the jungle oh Ancient one.

First rule of TSE is you need to tell everyone more about you and why you're here.

No way will CATH go DIRECTLY mining. They don't know how to do it and are a processor of product. Of course, they may facilitate something down the track with another player.....

TC.

Took the words out of my of my mouth …. CATH process shit and we dig it up. They are not miners , they need us as much as we need them … of course we needed them much more 2 weeks ago
Curve ball ….. watch the Saudis get involved with finance and or a buy out ???

Just thinking out loud ….

 

[Scoota30]

I think the probability of Zijin completely throwing in the towel and walking away from Manono is very minimal.

They'll push forward with development of the north, aiming to be such a fact on the ground that they'll not be dislodged with ease. They'll then look to fight for that zone, or at least part of it, whether through negotiations or legal actions.

China play the long game, and i think they'll look to try and control the north directly, and the south at least indirectly - if not directly down the line.

But I feel there's still a path forward here that ends with AVZ getting a reasonable outcome for us long-suffering shareholders, even with that scenario playing out.

I'm not completely ruling out your take Roon but i'm more so leaning towards Zijin taking a hike, they're still playing their role right now yes, but their role was to steal the project completely from AVZ and as it currently stands there is a high likelihood they will fail that.
As someone else said previously, CATH good cop - Zijin Bad cop. At the end of the day they are still both parts of the same tree & China will still end up with a large minority stake and the product.

 

[cruiser51]

In my opinion CATH are positioning for acquisition. Imo there's on going negotiations between avz and drc re. Mining licence and one of the questions that has come from drc is how on earth are you going to fund and build this? Avz responded by getting clarity on the partnership with CATH to show drc government the means.

However, I also believe that CATH fully intend to gain full control of as much of the project as they can. My rationale here is I don't see them needing avz at all in the picture. The only value we bring is the fact we own the project. The long term value to CATH by owning the additional % in the project even if it is the lower of the theorised %'s significantly outweighs the price that most shareholders would probably accept. If that is the case then the next thing I would ask is, is it possible in terms of capital for CATH and that answer is definitely yes. Tldr; that it makes no sense for avz to retain any % as this is against the desires for all parties involved.

Maybe read the agreement properly and compare with the previous agreement.

I don't think you did that.

 

[TheCount]

Took the words out of my of my mouth …. CATH process shit and we dig it up. They are not miners , they need us as much as we need them … of course we needed them much more 2 weeks ago
Curve ball ….. watch the Saudis get involved with finance and or a buy out ???

Just thinking out loud ….

Saudi anyone?

Watch the video.

 

[Ancient]

Zijin needs ownership because they only profit from SELLING the rocks.
CATH (IMO) doesn't care as much about ownership as long as they GET the rocks.

So as long as they know they have that secured, I dont think they really benefit from trying to buy AVZ out completely at this point.

The way the geopolitical landscape is heading it may even offer some advantages to them to be JV with an Aussie company rather than fully Chinese owned. And let's not forget Aussies are no slouches either when it comes to mining.

5-7 years down the line, when mine is producing (and maybe hydroxide plant), the macro climate has settled a bit, and CATH is nearing the end of their exclusive offtake period maybe they'll be more inclined to push to take the whole thing over, if they think its required to keep their required supply going.

The only other reason would be to stop AVZ selling to someone else. We know there are limitations on who CATH can sell to, nothing about AVZ tho. Also dont know it this partnership gives CATH ROFR. But if anyone else decided to make an offer for AVZ's share, CATH can still step in and match/beat it if and when it happens.

Thanks for the reply - you make good points.

Re. Zijin I think it's very possible they'll keep the north as part of some kind of compromise/negotiation (Which of course is completely fucked).

You and some others commented that CATH won't want to mine because they would rather focus on their core business. Good point. However, I also think they would consider an unknown mining company from Aus quite a high risk to go through the rest of the process if this project is indeed highly strategic for them. It also might not be and rather just be a supply diversification strategy or contingency.

Another good point re having a 'western' partner owning the mine as some countries/companies requirements around supply chains.

What do you mean limitations on who Cath can sell to sorry? I am a little confused on this.

@TheCount what would you like to know?

@cruiser51 sorry mate I didn't get what you were referring to? Ive read the announcements but maybe I misunderstood something

 

[cruiser51]

Thanks for the reply - you make good points.

Re. Zijin I think it's very possible they'll keep the north as part of some kind of compromise/negotiation (Which of course is completely fucked).

You and some others commented that CATH won't want to mine because they would rather focus on their core business. Good point. However, I also think they would consider an unknown mining company from Aus quite a high risk to go through the rest of the process if this project is indeed highly strategic for them. It also might not be and rather just be a supply diversification strategy or contingency.

Another good point re having a 'western' partner owning the mine as some countries/companies requirements around supply chains.

What do you mean limitations on who Cath can sell to sorry? I am a little confused on this.

@TheCount what would you like to know?

@cruiser51 sorry mate I didn't get what you were referring to? Ive read the announcements but maybe I misunderstood something

It is pretty simple.
Take both contracts and see the difference.

 

[Winenut]

If Zijin do end up in some way retaining the north through all this and we get the south with our good friends CATH who gets camp Colline?

 

[cruiser51]

If Zijin do end up in some way retaining the north through all this and we get the south with our good friends CATH who gets camp Colline?

Read my lips....

Fuck Zijin.
Howzat? Does it explain?

 

[Winenut]

Read my lips....

Fuck Zijin.
Howzat? Does it explain?

 

[Winenut]

Oh dear

I have an idiot on ignore and some shit still manages to come through

What's up with that???? @zeeb0t

 

[TheCount]

Thanks for the reply - you make good points.

Re. Zijin I think it's very possible they'll keep the north as part of some kind of compromise/negotiation (Which of course is completely fucked).

You and some others commented that CATH won't want to mine because they would rather focus on their core business. Good point. However, I also think they would consider an unknown mining company from Aus quite a high risk to go through the rest of the process if this project is indeed highly strategic for them. It also might not be and rather just be a supply diversification strategy or contingency.

Another good point re having a 'western' partner owning the mine as some countries/companies requirements around supply chains.

What do you mean limitations on who Cath can sell to sorry? I am a little confused on this.

@TheCount what would you like to know?

@cruiser51 sorry mate I didn't get what you were referring to? Ive read the announcements but maybe I misunderstood something

Welcome back Shane.

 

[Ancient]

Righto. I see how things are. After lurking for a long time I wanted to finally join a discussion and I get immediately met with hostility.

 

[cruiser51]

View attachment 76122

Eeeeewwwww
And I thought you were a streetwise shonky accountant.

 

[Roon]

Righto. I see how things are. After lurking for a long time I wanted to finally join a discussion and I get immediately met with hostility.

Don't worry about it, happens to everyone here at some point. Can't be questioning the party line!

 

[Panther22]

Thanks for the reply - you make good points.

Re. Zijin I think it's very possible they'll keep the north as part of some kind of compromise/negotiation (Which of course is completely fucked).

You and some others commented that CATH won't want to mine because they would rather focus on their core business. Good point. However, I also think they would consider an unknown mining company from Aus quite a high risk to go through the rest of the process if this project is indeed highly strategic for them. It also might not be and rather just be a supply diversification strategy or contingency.

Another good point re having a 'western' partner owning the mine as some countries/companies requirements around supply chains.

What do you mean limitations on who Cath can sell to sorry? I am a little confused on this.

@TheCount what would you like to know?

@cruiser51 sorry mate I didn't get what you were referring to? Ive read the announcements but maybe I misunderstood something

AVZ hardly an unknown miner to CATH. There was the 24% - $240 million arrangement between the two companies before Zijin and Comminere started their shit.

 

[cruiser51]

Righto. I see how things are. After lurking for a long time I wanted to finally join a discussion and I get immediately met with hostility.

Maybe better stick to lurking only.

If you wish to bait people, HC is the place to go.

 

[cruiser51]

Don't worry about it, happens to everyone here at some point. Can't be questioning the party line!

It is not about following the party line Roon, you are smarter than that.

It is all about asking leading questions and playing silly bugger.
It is called baiting.

If somebody comes through the revolving door with that mentality, he should not expect applause, better revolve the full 360 circle.

If it smells like a troll, walks like a troll and quacks like a troll, it highly likely is a troll.

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

Eeeeewwwww
And I thought you were a streetwise shonky accountant.

He's a dirty booker