AVZ Discussion 2022

[Lucas Don Velor]

Zijin v AVZ is going through the ICC but it's the same crap either way. Most of the waiting is just procedural bullshit. As well as delay tactics by Zijin and the arbiter needing breaks because they have the wrong mustard on their baguette or some shit.

This case was initiated by Zijin in May 2022 and the decision on the jurisdictional challenge is only now expected in late January 2024. If Zijin win the jurisdictional challenge then we still have the main part of the case to go through.

After our win in the provisional hearing to maintain the status quo (just the south for now) at the ICSID against the DRC government that case won't reach the first hearing on merits until June 2025 according to the schedule 9card outlined a few months back.

The time frames are just a scam to make more money for the lawyers. There is no good reason these cases couldn't be wrapped up in a 12 month time limit. I guess the difference for most companies is that they have more than one project running so if they do need to go through years of arbitration then they can still make money elsewhere and not need to go into suspension.

I have extremely high confidence that we will win every case if needed with the exception of possibly having legally ceded the old north split as I've talked about previously. But I think the writing is on the wall and in official announcements from AVZ management that a bad deal is better than a good trial for the company at this point.

The north split debacle is a tricky one... unless the 'elusive' piece of evidence/paperwork is provided to ICC/ICSID!?!?

14 July 2021- Cominiere and Zijin entered into negotiations for 15% share. I believe funding for this came from the sell down of Bellamel Mining.

Up until 30 July 2021 Bellamel (Zijin) accumulated 80Mil shares without participating in the CR around that time. Between 30 July 2021 and 31 August 2021 Bellamel sold 10Mil shares and by 29 October 2021, Bellamel were not in the top 20... Sneaky???

 

[TheCount]

im hoping that Felix is trying to play both sides of the fence. If he makes a decision before ICC/ICSID then the Chinese will accuse him of undermining them. If he makes decisions after courts make theirs ( in AVZ’s favour hopefully ) then he can save face to the overlords and say sorry chaps hands are tied we tried.

Either outcome shows he is a weak politician.. Waiting for others instead of following his own agenda (remember the anti corruption platform?) is the root cause of our problem.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

anyone in Perth free to attend the supreme court on Thursday 1/2/24 to view the Fat Tail vs AVZ and co hearing?

 

[cruiser51]

 

[Doc]

https://x.com/mjkcongo/status/1751309175118852433?s=46&t=2s8tQi9U15Cu6kspC7PqnA

I wonder if spod was part of the deal…

 

[CHB]

A bad deal is having to settle for anything less than what we are legally entitled to because of the whims of Mr 73% rather than the law being followed. That could range from being bought out to having to accept Zijin in Dathcom with giving up the north somewhere inbetween.

My inkling is that the condition outlined in the ICSID decision regarding AVZ being asked to promise to progress the project immediately if the ML is granted came from the DRC government. Perhaps them trying to call AVZ management's bluff if they really believe we are just speculators.

Is it not weird that ICSID requests it?

Like making it a condition of ML. When really the ML should be given on the basis of AVZ already following the mining code.

I imagine management may be rushing now to renegotiate funding with the banks or some other party. I imagine what was previously agreed is now off the table given the macros and the timeframe since last agreement.

 

[Mr Clean]

Pretty clear to me that if a deal is not made in the next few months, we’ll have to wait for the final decision of the courts in 2025 and 2026. Which means we will likely be delisted in May. Pretty disastrous outcome for everybody

 

[Remark]

Nice fishing there @TDITD !

You're the first person to get a decent bite from @cominiereSA, he's becoming more & more unhinged.

 

[lellep]

Are we getting delisted in May?

 

[TDITD]

Nice fishing there @TDITD !

You're the first person to get a decent bite from @cominiereSA, he's becoming more & more unhinged.

View attachment 55450

His lies and the pressure is taking a toll on him.
Great work to all who have been vocal on X

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Great work Paul, hopefully it is doing something to spread the word and not allow Felix the fat cunt to just ignore us in perpetuity.

Hopefully negotiations are moving quickly and Vital gets the PM spot.

Keep up the good work on X

 

[Xerof]

Are we getting delisted in May?

Ask PeterG, he won’t know either

 

[Carlos Danger]

Is it not weird that ICSID requests it?

Like making it a condition of ML. When really the ML should be given on the basis of AVZ already following the mining code.

I imagine management may be rushing now to renegotiate funding with the banks or some other party. I imagine what was previously agreed is now off the table given the macros and the timeframe since last agreement.

Yeah it certainly is an odd one

Avz posted the ICC decision in French and English back in November. Strange that they haven't done the same with this recent ICSID ruling.

The fact that we have been asked to put in writing that we will progress the project immediately when, checks notes, that is the entirety of what our case is about is extremely suspicious to me

What if the licence is finalised for the south and then CATH does the old sweet chin music through the barbershop window to Nigel Jannetty by pulling funding. They did vote for MMGA and against the current bod at the AGM.

Would anyone else bank roll this shitshow especially now lithium prices have crashed?

All eyes on Mr Pei imo

 

[SilentOne]

Yeah it certainly is an odd one

Avz posted the ICC decision in French and English back in November. Strange that they haven't done the same with this recent ICSID ruling.

The fact that we have been asked to put in writing that we will progress the project immediately when, checks notes, that is the entirety of what our case is about is extremely suspicious to me

What if the licence is finalised for the south and then CATH does the old sweet chin music through the barbershop window to Nigel Jannetty by pulling funding. They did vote for MMGA and against the current bod at the AGM.

Would anyone else bank roll this shitshow especially now lithium prices have crashed?

All eyes on Mr Pei imo

View attachment 55475

Carlos,

I am not overly concerned if Cath pulls funding I would suspect that there would be many other contenders. Being mindful that this a very strategic Asset and it is likely to influence the Lithium Price into the future. It is not the current value that we need to focus on but the future value and the life of the mine.

Any good miner is likely to give both her nuts to be part of the project - however there needs to be enforceable commitments from the DRC.

The longer this drags on the greater the damage this does to future investments within the DRC.

My experience in 3rd World countries is that the locals tend to like working for the West due to in many circumstances better working conditions and higher pay. This is the last thing Sin Bin is likely to want.

Anyway, just a thought bubble - DYOR.


Regards,

Silent.

 

[Azzler]

Yeah it certainly is an odd one

Avz posted the ICC decision in French and English back in November. Strange that they haven't done the same with this recent ICSID ruling.

The fact that we have been asked to put in writing that we will progress the project immediately when, checks notes, that is the entirety of what our case is about is extremely suspicious to me

Yes Mr Danger, I've been rolling this around in my head for a while now and still quite baffled about it.
What exactly do you find suspicious? Like what do you suspect?

The best I can come up with is the other side banged on loudly acusing AVZ of not capable of developing a mine and only wanting to sell it off, and that is about the ONLY basis they have to deny us the ML.
I can't imagine they'd have any proof of this and it came down to a bunch of accusations with nothing to back them up.

In the interest of dealing with these utter children (The DRC Government), they simply included this clause so they had nothing else to say.
I mean they don't have any fucking thing to say really, they're thieving criminal scum, and that's just factual.

So ISCID tell DRC if AVZ break this promise, you will have cause to revoke their ML, and that removes your only protest...problem solved right? Ya bunch of crooked fucks.

This is of course just my guess at what is going on behind the scenes.
Anyone got any other ideas about that?

 

[Dijon101]

@Azzler

DRC is 3rd world and corrupt
Manono is a world class resource
China try to steal manono
AVZ says no
Lawyers make money

 

[wombat74]

Yeah it certainly is an odd one

Avz posted the ICC decision in French and English back in November. Strange that they haven't done the same with this recent ICSID ruling.

The fact that we have been asked to put in writing that we will progress the project immediately when, checks notes, that is the entirety of what our case is about is extremely suspicious to me

What if the licence is finalised for the south and then CATH does the old sweet chin music through the barbershop window to Nigel Jannetty by pulling funding. They did vote for MMGA and against the current bod at the AGM.

Would anyone else bank roll this shitshow especially now lithium prices have crashed?

All eyes on Mr Pei imo

View attachment 55475

Surely Nigel has got his head around this and has a back up plan (partner) . He's known for 4 years the Chinese have been trying to F--k him over . Even a wood duck like me put a question mark on CATH . Why ? Because they are f--king Chinese .

 

[SilentOne]

Surely Nigel has got his head around this and has a back up plan (partner) . He's known for 4 years the Chinese have been trying to F--k him over . Even a wood duck like me put a question mark on CATH . Why ? Because they are f--king Chinese .

Wombat,

You are correct. I am sure that Nigel has multiple fallback positions - I think that many of us recognise that all chinese companies are an extension of the CCP.

I think what an excellent outcome would be is if an American Company replaced Cath this would provide us with a solid base and security in my opinion.


Regards,

SilentOne

 

[Scoota30]

The risk v reward for CATH pulling out of the project just isn't there IMO. They would know that AVZ would have a secondary plan and in that case they would risk losing 24% ownership of the entire project as well as all of the product. The smart move from CATH/CCP is to have that deal as a backup in case they can't steal the entire project.

 

[Cumquat Cap]

anyone concerned about this quarterly due this week? i'm sure it will be pretty rough viewing.

Agree re CATH I think they will stick around as its a deal of the century in retrospect - but would love an American mob to come in (suspect they're too smart to invest significant capital in the DRC).

I do know mr 73% as CD puts it will be looking to leverage his majority into a few big ass paydays throughout the next 5 years