AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
@wombat74, I agree with you that any progress on this will be after FT's China visit. I also expect meetings with Zijin and CATL on the sidelines. A compromise will be worked out. AVZ wants ML, Americans want Li and don't want everything to go to China, Zijin wants to save face, DRC wants development and tax money and FT wants to get re-elected.
TDITD
Top 20
Just the tip, tell him he will get the rest on a satisfactory social media outcomeNot yet. Was thinking of a dick pic, what do you suggest?
Azzler
Top 20
I don't follow how you guys are connecting his Beijing visit with the decision on Manono.
What's your reasoning?
A big deal with the DRC right now is them renegociating mining contracts with the Chinese. I'd imagine some personal diplomacy is in order before asking for more money from all their contracts.
I can't see any need to visit china to sort out Manono, especially since their only interest is a 15% illegally attempted grab.
Uglybob
Regular
China have made no effort to conceal they want to control the worlds rare earth and critical minerals, which includes lithium. They have been buying up lots of mines from very early on. They wouldn't want one of the worlds biggest deposits not under their control would they? They don't really care about fair or legal. Whatever it takes is more like it.
Azzler
Top 20
I agree.
But what's that got to do with the DRC president going to China?
Fletch77
Regular
Plan A. Don’t lose shareholders fucking investments by being stubborn for too long and end up with zero. Know when enough is enough.
Plan B. Get ML without Zijin involved in project.
Plan C,D,E,F,G,H,I,J,K if you can’t get the ML without Zijin 15% just get the fucking ML in hand with those disgusting
pricks Zijin holding 15%, get the fuck out of there and sell the rest to Zijin or any prick that will pay $1.50 + ASAPYou reckon Felix is just going to China to practice his chopstick skills?
Felix wants planes, tanks, roads, rails and re-election.
I can't see smiling Joe fulfilling those wishes in a big hurry, while the DRC displays the national sport of the disappearing brown bags.
Felix has a few things the Chinese want.
The Chinese highly likely will say 'We can help you if you help us', nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
Politics in the DRC is a lucrative business.
At the end of the day they did suck the DRC in before and are hoping to repeat the exercise.
Or maybe FT is playing US and China off against each other.
Maybe the winner is already decided.
Or maybe there are different winners depending upon which issue FT thinks he's deciding.
Maybe the rest is window dressing so that the loser does not also lose face.
Or maybe it depends on the weight of his cargo on the return trip.
Ifs, buts and maybes.
T'was ever thus.
Maybe the winner is already decided.
Or maybe there are different winners depending upon which issue FT thinks he's deciding.
Maybe the rest is window dressing so that the loser does not also lose face.
Or maybe it depends on the weight of his cargo on the return trip.
Ifs, buts and maybes.
T'was ever thus.
John Reed
Regular
not exactly a good sign for Tshisekedi to make a visit to Beijing just four months out from when official electioneering usually kicks off.
But who knows what the strategy is since DRC is at the centre of a power struggle between Washington and Beijing.
my impression is, that inside the contradictions between the IGF hard line (basic governance) and the mysterious resistance to true political fall out that should be a consequence of outing corruption, is that Tshisekedi needs above all loyalty more than anything to keep his political Union intact as the country moves to election mode
.
I may miss some of the intricacies to how Tshisekedi is encumbered or compromised but I think considering that IGF did what it did it did so knowing it’s throat would be protected, is clear as daylight.
Further, to weaken Chinese hegemony (by revisiting previous regime contracts) means to weaken the old brigade, which by the way, are still there, Mupande, one of the most obvious ‘barnacles’ yet to be ‘scraped.’ So, Tshisekedi is likely heading to Beijing on invitation. Beijing seems to have influence and something has to be brokered I suspect. The biggest piece would be the US proposal for EVs. And what Beijing can do for Tshisekedi.
Other than that I don’t know, as the Secretary of State Pompeo (once CIA elite always CIA elite) ordained Tshisekedi
4 years ago. How does the power politics work has me mystified. There appears no return to heavy hand days of Mobutu.
But US is funding projects in DRC. Even the Japanese are turning up.
Diversity is key for Congolese people.
Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is. What if the Chinese get it.
What does that do for Australian lithium?
But who knows what the strategy is since DRC is at the centre of a power struggle between Washington and Beijing.
my impression is, that inside the contradictions between the IGF hard line (basic governance) and the mysterious resistance to true political fall out that should be a consequence of outing corruption, is that Tshisekedi needs above all loyalty more than anything to keep his political Union intact as the country moves to election mode
.I may miss some of the intricacies to how Tshisekedi is encumbered or compromised but I think considering that IGF did what it did it did so knowing it’s throat would be protected, is clear as daylight.
Further, to weaken Chinese hegemony (by revisiting previous regime contracts) means to weaken the old brigade, which by the way, are still there, Mupande, one of the most obvious ‘barnacles’ yet to be ‘scraped.’ So, Tshisekedi is likely heading to Beijing on invitation. Beijing seems to have influence and something has to be brokered I suspect. The biggest piece would be the US proposal for EVs. And what Beijing can do for Tshisekedi.
Other than that I don’t know, as the Secretary of State Pompeo (once CIA elite always CIA elite) ordained Tshisekedi
4 years ago. How does the power politics work has me mystified. There appears no return to heavy hand days of Mobutu.
But US is funding projects in DRC. Even the Japanese are turning up.
Diversity is key for Congolese people.
Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is. What if the Chinese get it.
What does that do for Australian lithium?
"Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is." That would be the understatement of this whole shitshow John!not exactly a good sign for Tshisekedi to make a visit to Beijing just four months out from when official electioneering usually kicks off.
But who knows what the strategy is since DRC is at the centre of a power struggle between Washington and Beijing.
my impression is, that inside the contradictions between the IGF hard line (basic governance) and the mysterious resistance to true political fall out that should be a consequence of outing corruption, is that Tshisekedi needs above all loyalty more than anything to keep his political Union intact as the country moves to election mode
I may miss some of the intricacies to how Tshisekedi is encumbered or compromised but I think considering that IGF did what it did it did so knowing it’s throat would be protected, is clear as daylight.
Further, to weaken Chinese hegemony (by revisiting previous regime contracts) means to weaken the old brigade, which by the way, are still there, Mupande, one of the most obvious ‘barnacles’ yet to be ‘scraped.’ So, Tshisekedi is likely heading to Beijing on invitation. Beijing seems to have influence and something has to be brokered I suspect. The biggest piece would be the US proposal for EVs. And what Beijing can do for Tshisekedi.
Other than that I don’t know, as the Secretary of State Pompeo (once CIA elite always CIA elite) ordained Tshisekedi
4 years ago. How does the power politics work has me mystified. There appears no return to heavy hand days of Mobutu.
But US is funding projects in DRC. Even the Japanese are turning up.
Diversity is key for Congolese people.
Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is. What if the Chinese get it.
What does that do for Australian lithium?
It might be safer and easier for FT to make his call on Manono after the election ? Is he caught between a rock and hard place ? Obviously AVZ does not have the luxury of waiting until the election to find out . Nigel will need to make a call well before then . IMOnot exactly a good sign for Tshisekedi to make a visit to Beijing just four months out from when official electioneering usually kicks off.
But who knows what the strategy is since DRC is at the centre of a power struggle between Washington and Beijing.
my impression is, that inside the contradictions between the IGF hard line (basic governance) and the mysterious resistance to true political fall out that should be a consequence of outing corruption, is that Tshisekedi needs above all loyalty more than anything to keep his political Union intact as the country moves to election mode
I may miss some of the intricacies to how Tshisekedi is encumbered or compromised but I think considering that IGF did what it did it did so knowing it’s throat would be protected, is clear as daylight.
Further, to weaken Chinese hegemony (by revisiting previous regime contracts) means to weaken the old brigade, which by the way, are still there, Mupande, one of the most obvious ‘barnacles’ yet to be ‘scraped.’ So, Tshisekedi is likely heading to Beijing on invitation. Beijing seems to have influence and something has to be brokered I suspect. The biggest piece would be the US proposal for EVs. And what Beijing can do for Tshisekedi.
Other than that I don’t know, as the Secretary of State Pompeo (once CIA elite always CIA elite) ordained Tshisekedi
4 years ago. How does the power politics work has me mystified. There appears no return to heavy hand days of Mobutu.
But US is funding projects in DRC. Even the Japanese are turning up.
Diversity is key for Congolese people.
Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is. What if the Chinese get it.
What does that do for Australian lithium?
Nailed it Nut - I just didn't want to say it! You've got absolutely no filter bro!
Mate, it's pretty much all window dressing in the lead-up to the election. If he was going to do something worthwhile about corruption and Chinese looting, he would have done it already. He's in China seeking financial aid, and maybe arms to manage the deteriorating security issue in the north east.
The other thing is that it's now been almost three months since the decree awarding Dathcom the ML was repealed. If Felix's govt was going to take it further, it would have been done so already. Me thinks that the govt is unable to repeal Dathcom's exploration licence because of the multi-billion dollar damages claim that would surely follow.
Given the undeniable evidence of widespread govt and Chinese corruption, and that AVZ followed the mining code, the DRC would have a hard time convincing any ICC court that its decisions were anything but corrupt and illegal. I think the DRC govt is prepared to wait for the conga line of ICC cases to run their course, regardless of opportunity cost and lost revenue.
Just thinking out aloud.
Cheers
F
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John Reed
Regular
Bearing in mind there’s likely another level chess game at work with the US surely backing AVZ indirectly for its own interests, Nigel I think just needs to keep marshalling on the rights front possibly with some compromise but how to compromise with thieves? Kinshasa allies what’s left are distancing themselves for political not legal reasons.
ICC Paris hygienizes decision making / hopefully its decisive for Kinshasa.
I can’t see a deal before that eventuating — there’s no compromise with crookery.
DRC elements have well and truly exposed themselves beyond what they can imagine….I would run for the airport
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