I'll be impressed if they even show up
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AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
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Remark
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BYO paper bags
marksmann007
Regular
I personally don’t mind takeover talk, even better a bidding war between multiple parties showing their hand would be beneficial to the SP.
We can decline cheap offers & AVZ moves forward with mine development.
If a TO bid was put forward before we resume trading once the ML was awarded for $1.50 we sure as hell wont be trading at 78c.
Personally I’d take $2.50 and walk away from this DRC shit show now even knowing it’s worth many times that value once in production.
I’ve still got no idea how this thing will trade once it opens even if we come through with all the boxes ticked.
Many holders must be mentally drained from this whole debacle.
It is encouraging though to see the large increase in market caps on other lithium stocks.
I’m disgusted the way AVZ & Nigel has been treated by the DRC, watching us falling out of the ASX 200 with these delays, destroy our planning & timelines with another 5+ months of delays waiting for CAMI to sign off on the ML but instead some moron decides to try & illegally cut our tenements.
Is this how you treat a genuine brown paper bag free business partner?
Doesn’t really reward good behaviour or send much of a message to the rest of the world does it?
How can it take this long for high level government officials to sort out this clown at CAMI with so much at stake for the DRC?
cruiser51
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Remark
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DiscoDanNZ
Regular
grassseeds
Regular
I sense that we have a discussion going on where we have comments on what is a possible result and what is a probable result. Yes, it is possible that all our dreams will come true and AVZ will obtain 90% of the project and onsell 24% to Cath and then go mining. One of the other probable alternatives is that AVZ will be forced to compromise on its options and accept a less favourable outcome.
AVZ is a small company, with limited capacity, limited experience, and no track record of operating a mine in DRC. On the other hand, there are numerous Chinese companies already operating in the DRC. The Chinese have invested billions, have networks of influence, and are prepared to pay to get what they want. We should all be able to see that trying to get what we believe are contractual rights processed, is difficult to achieve in the DRC environment.
I am assuming that AVZ is having difficulty in getting approval for the total area they appear to be entitled to. I suspect that this is the reason for the suspension. AVZ by being in suspension has benefits which include limits to short selling and helps to puts pressure back on the DRC officials to fix the problems. AVZ need to remain in suspension until they get at least the ML.
AVZ is now fighting on many fronts to stop the possible claim jumpers. I assume that Tantalex is pushing for access to not only surface rights to the dumps of material, but also arguing for total access to this area as well. One of their arguments will be that AVZ has more area than they can use now, and Tantalex can quickly get another mine in operation which will be a major benefit to DRC.
Klaus Ekhoff has many contacts ( including probably the ones he used to get AVZ's initial area ) and he will also be pushing for access to good Lithium areas.
Zijin will be making offers to support Tantalex or Klaus etc. Saving face is important to the Chinese and with their access to large amounts of capital, it is highly probable that they will be making takeover offers.
We also now have at least the Americans trying to get in the game. It would make sense if they could take a part of AVZ ( who will need the capital and also to dilute the large Chinese shareholding already in AVZ)
AVZ has outstanding problems such as the Dathomir issue, the Zijin arbitration, and CAMI playing hardball in finalising the ML. All of these problems could take some further months to complete.
AVZ has been waiting for about 12 months to try and get the ML. This by itself indicates that AVZ does not have the clout in the DRC to get these problems quickly sorted. Will CATH's involvement, or perhaps some European or American support help to eliminate the logjam?
I see the possibility that CATH may step in to assist AVZ in sorting out Dathomir to get their 24% finalised and AVZ holding 51%.
Only the DRC can sort out the ML and AVZ's land area. The comments about the Europeans and Americans with regard to cleaning up corruption before they invest should be positive for AVZ's claims.
With AVZ the David in the fight against Goliath, I suspect that we will have many more twists and turns before the dust settles.
My impression is that the project possibilities are so big that AVZ will be under constant pressure to sell its share in the project. With a large Chinese shareholding in AVZ, any official takeover offer by a Chinese company will be well supported.
Like all long-term shareholders, I would prefer AVZ to stay with the project and maximize shareholders returns. However, with a red hot lithium market, I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns.
Best of luck to all.
AVZ is a small company, with limited capacity, limited experience, and no track record of operating a mine in DRC. On the other hand, there are numerous Chinese companies already operating in the DRC. The Chinese have invested billions, have networks of influence, and are prepared to pay to get what they want. We should all be able to see that trying to get what we believe are contractual rights processed, is difficult to achieve in the DRC environment.
I am assuming that AVZ is having difficulty in getting approval for the total area they appear to be entitled to. I suspect that this is the reason for the suspension. AVZ by being in suspension has benefits which include limits to short selling and helps to puts pressure back on the DRC officials to fix the problems. AVZ need to remain in suspension until they get at least the ML.
AVZ is now fighting on many fronts to stop the possible claim jumpers. I assume that Tantalex is pushing for access to not only surface rights to the dumps of material, but also arguing for total access to this area as well. One of their arguments will be that AVZ has more area than they can use now, and Tantalex can quickly get another mine in operation which will be a major benefit to DRC.
Klaus Ekhoff has many contacts ( including probably the ones he used to get AVZ's initial area ) and he will also be pushing for access to good Lithium areas.
Zijin will be making offers to support Tantalex or Klaus etc. Saving face is important to the Chinese and with their access to large amounts of capital, it is highly probable that they will be making takeover offers.
We also now have at least the Americans trying to get in the game. It would make sense if they could take a part of AVZ ( who will need the capital and also to dilute the large Chinese shareholding already in AVZ)
AVZ has outstanding problems such as the Dathomir issue, the Zijin arbitration, and CAMI playing hardball in finalising the ML. All of these problems could take some further months to complete.
AVZ has been waiting for about 12 months to try and get the ML. This by itself indicates that AVZ does not have the clout in the DRC to get these problems quickly sorted. Will CATH's involvement, or perhaps some European or American support help to eliminate the logjam?
I see the possibility that CATH may step in to assist AVZ in sorting out Dathomir to get their 24% finalised and AVZ holding 51%.
Only the DRC can sort out the ML and AVZ's land area. The comments about the Europeans and Americans with regard to cleaning up corruption before they invest should be positive for AVZ's claims.
With AVZ the David in the fight against Goliath, I suspect that we will have many more twists and turns before the dust settles.
My impression is that the project possibilities are so big that AVZ will be under constant pressure to sell its share in the project. With a large Chinese shareholding in AVZ, any official takeover offer by a Chinese company will be well supported.
Like all long-term shareholders, I would prefer AVZ to stay with the project and maximize shareholders returns. However, with a red hot lithium market, I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns.
Best of luck to all.
cruiser51
Top 20
AGM show bags:
However to be fair, we do not know what deals are being negotiated and made in the background.
I would be very surprised if Nigel is holed up in a backroom in Manono with a hessian bag over his head humming lalala, rolled up in the foetus position.
While companies are in negotiations, they do that behind closed doors until all is ready to be disclosed in the appropriate way.
The appropriate way is with respect for the DRC Government and other parties involved.
It is called confidentiality.
The ASX respects that process.
I personally do believe the tweet from AVZ's DRC lawyers that Zijin is out.
It was never denied by AVZ, neither was that post deleted.
Yes it is a long time, but it is better than being told: 'We tried hard, but couldn't stop Zijin'.
Having said that, there is of course still a remote possibility it heads that way, but my water tells me it is highly unlikely.
John25
Regular
Theres a lot of background/backroom deals being doneAGM show bags:
View attachment 17040
However to be fair, we do not know what deals are being negotiated and made in the background.
I would be very surprised if Nigel is holed up in a backroom in Manono with a hessian bag over his head humming lalala, rolled up in the foetus position.
While companies are in negotiations, they do that behind closed doors until all is ready to be disclosed in the appropriate way.
The appropriate way is with respect for the DRC Government and other parties involved.
It is called confidentiality.
The ASX respects that process.
I personally do believe the tweet from AVZ's DRC lawyers that Zijin is out.
It was never denied by AVZ, neither was that post deleted.
Yes it is a long time, but it is better than being told: 'We tried hard, but couldn't stop Zijin'.
Having said that, there is of course still a remote possibility it heads that way, but my water tells me it is highly unlikely.
TDITD
Top 20
Bloody hell grassseeds I think you’ve been overwatered.
Possible an probable from your perspective, yet as I went on to read the rest of your post it was clear you haven’t dug too far with your research, not having a go as you may have 6 kids and two jobs just saying. For example China aren’t exactly flavour of the month in the DRC with Government or with IGF only with the well fed rats who are scurrying - hardly advantageous for the Chinese, in fact quite the opposite. There are many articles out of DRC that highlight this.
Zijin will be making offers with tantalex, that made me lol - Zijin just got caught red handed and read up on tantalex ceo it’ll make you laugh, so I’m sure anything that dream team put forward will be met with ‘Not got round to it yet’. Taking land off AVZ to give to the criminals is what you call probable yet AVZ 66% and CATH 24% is possible, dude it’s puff puff pass stop hogging the grass
. Not to mention the illegality of taking our ground away, they are looking to become a mining player on the global map, that behaviour is Kabila no Felix.As for Dathomir that was always a joke, Cong legally has no legs to stand on, yes I know blah blah corruption, it will set us back as we go higher up the chain if that happens so it’s a pain but end of the day it’s ours we paid for it and signed contracts years ago.
More is being made out of it all as it’s radio silence.
It makes much more sense that the DRC Gov and AVZ are in talks in regards to further 15% and SEZ with a bit of fanfare being made out of it once done (soon
) before coming out of suspension. To those that are trying to follow closely and join dots that is, rather than reading hot crapper wankers an trolls on the daily as that would be sure to influence one’s thinking however small or large.Not having a pop grass just saying I reckon your off base an what I’ve been finding points to a more positive scenario for AVZ than your we will be lucky with 51% an some tenement taken scenario.
Guess we will see though
I’ll let ya shout me a beer when I’m right
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CeckRaiseFold
Regular
Everybody's investment situation in AVZ is different.
For some, including me, a TO for $1.50 - $2.00 makes perfect investment sense. If you have bought in for single digit cents you can make up to 40 or 50 times your original investment. It makes perfect rational sense for people to then want to cash in, no need to call it bull shit it is simply sound investing and taking profits. Making such a return is very rare and for some already life changing. You can then kick back and enjoy the cash or re-invest somewhere else in penny stocks trying to repeat it. From a level of $1.5 - $2 you will not see another 10 fold increase in AVZ soon if at all.
Grasseeds points out some other reasons why a TO now might not be a bad thing for many LTH who bought in low and why the offer will never be at the value some expect the company to be once mining.
Nobody would price a current TO for what an operating, possibly expanded, mine will be worth. There would be no incentive or upside value left for the entity doing the take over. Whilst they would be taking on the largest hard rock deposit in the world, they also take on large amounts of risks and uncertainties on the way to mining.
The reduced TO valuation allows for all the risk along the way to a completed and well operating mine. And those risks are large. Assume even for a minute corruption is rooted out at high level government and regulators which takes up the majority on this forum discussion. It is to be expected to be rife at all lower levels that a construction project would have to deal with, importing materials and equipment, access to sites, site security, wage demands, obtaining work permits, ensuring local jobs and forced use of local agents and contractors, etc, etc. I know, I have lived it myself in a neighbouring country. These constant challenges would be a drain on manpower and funds and will likely cause significant delays to the mine, the hydro electric plant the power transmission, the trucking operation, the rail operation, etc. To persevere it requires deep pockets, experience in building mines and major logistics and having productive networks in-country.
People who keep saying we're going mining soon, have not worked in West Africa and completely underestimate the massive undertaking this project is. For a company like AVZ it has the big risk of along the way needing to take on more debt, issue further capital raises or dilute project ownership, and possibly fend-off further coordinated scaremongering to supress the SP, all eroding the currently perceived future value or SP.
Do not overestimate AVZ's negotiation position, particularly after those very sobering and humbling last number of months. If realistic offers are rebuffed, TO candidates might very well say: "OK AVZ, good luck, we'll talk again once you run out of money or you're tied in red-tape and bribery knots".
So, yes, I would gladly take a $2 TO offer right now, write my resignation letter, reinvest some and thoroughly enjoy the rest! We all have our individual history and forward strategy/hopes with AVZ, this is mine.
Uglybob
Regular
There is more rumour spreading and gum flapping in here than a CWA hall, and nowhere near as many scones.
At least most of it is semi-amusing but I think the lack of forth-coming information is doing some peoples heads in. Hopefully no-one in here is in deeper than they can handle, but based on some of the panicked comments this may not be the case...
Just sit back and crack a VB knowing that the next possible delay is imminent.
At least most of it is semi-amusing but I think the lack of forth-coming information is doing some peoples heads in. Hopefully no-one in here is in deeper than they can handle, but based on some of the panicked comments this may not be the case...
Just sit back and crack a VB knowing that the next possible delay is imminent.
Samus
Top 20
***URGENT UPDATE*** NONE OF US HAVE A BLOODY CLUE WHATS GOING ON! Bring on the avz asx announcements! pineapples at the ready! Maximize our shares ye b#*tards
LOCKY82
Regular
Here here! Some people need to cool the beans! We've no idea what's going on I'm sure NF and the team have been working their arses off! It's in their interests too! "Avz have good legal title" have a beer or a spliff chill out and hold on
antimatter
Regular
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