Lithium Pricing

[Dave Evans]

I don’t know why the fuck I’m going to the trouble of starting another thread, this one on Lithium Pricing. I think it’s because I’m sick of the big brokers and financial banks putting out bullshit and if I can be half bothered I might add to this thread.

I know @cruiser51 and others post on lithium pricing and the supply demand equation so maybe they can add something here.

I just decided to do it because of two reasons. The first being that 3 of the T20 shareholders in that arsehole company Omni Bridgeway (OBL) are Citicorp, JP Morgan and Ubs and over the years I traded companies I personally found them to be big manipulators of stocks.

So now if I stumble across articles by the big investment banks or brokers I read what they say and once again find they only tell half the story.

I put this article I read today in here because it is another that doesn’t tell the full story.

What they fail to mention is that the excess supply of lithium in the market today is low grade lithium, nothing like the grade we have at Manono

Anyway, read on and add to this thread if you are interested in lithium pricing and supply versus demand, for me, I’m just sick of the constant manipulating and misinformation around lithium especially since we have the highest grade and largest resource of this commodity and we have already had to deal with bullshit from short sellers, corrupt media sources, mining companies and politicians.

If you want an accurate picture of lithium pricing and forecasts, I suggest reading Benckmark Minerals reports rather than brokers reports. Here’s Macquarie Banks recent report

Bad news ASX lithium bulls, this broker sees “surplus for several years”​

By Carl Capolingua

Thu 21 Dec 23, 12:42pm (AEDT)

Source: Shutterstock

Stocks in article​

PLS
MktCap:
$11.8B
AKE
MktCap:
$6.3B
CXO
MktCap:
$518.2M
LTR
MktCap:
$3.9B
SYA
MktCap:
$669.1M
MIN
MktCap:
$13.6B
IGO
MktCap:
$6.9B
PLL
MktCap:
$158.1M
AGY
MktCap:
$189.6M
PMT
MktCap:
$510.1M

Commodities in article​

Lithium


KEY POINTS

• Lithium prices are down over 70% since the start of the year
• This major broker sees potential for further short to medium-term weakness in lithium prices
• They’ve also downgraded several ASX lithium stocks, but retain one clear preference

One of the most ardent supporters of ASX lithium stocks, as well as the bull case for lithium minerals in general, Macquarie, has drastically pared back its forecasts for lithium prices in the short to medium term, while maintaining its long-term forecasts.

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team’s latest lithium outlook predicts the market for lithium minerals will “remain in surplus for several years”. Their price forecasts for calendar year (“CY”) 2024 to 2026 have been slashed by 61-74% for Spodumene, 44-71% for lithium carbonate, and 63-73% for lithium hydroxide.

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The pricing of the three major lithium minerals are inextricably linked, but just in case you’re wondering, spodumene tends to be the main lithium mineral produced by Australian “hard rock” miners such as Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS), IGO (ASX: IGO), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), Core Lithium (ASX: CXO), and Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR), whereas lithium carbonate tends to be more important for lithium producers targeting brines in South America, like Allkem (ASX: AKE). Both spodumene and lithium carbonate can be processed into lithium hydroxide which is a precursor material in the electric battery manufacturing process.

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Macquarie Commodity Strategy team Spodumene, 6% Li2O, US$/t (left) and 99.5% Li2CO3, battery grade, US$/t (right) old and new price outlook. Source: Macquarie Strategy, Macquarie Research, Dec 2023​

Longer term, Macquarie notes its lithium price forecasts are largely unchanged. In fact, they’ve actually upgraded their forecasts for spodumene prices from CY27 to CY29 by 9-19%, by 12-15% for lithium carbonate, and by 10-12% for lithium hydroxide.

Putting some actual prices to the changes, Macquarie is now predicting a spodumene price of US$1,416/t in CY24, US$1,450/t in CY25, and US$2,050 in CY26. For lithium carbonate, they’re forecasting US$19,875/t in CY24, US$19,000/t in CY25, and US$25,000/t in CY26. FYI, the current spot price for spodumene is US$1,410/t, and the current spot price for lithium carbonate is US$14,155/t.

So, to put Macquarie’s forecasts into perspective, they expect the spodumene price to remain roughly where it is for a couple of years, before recovering by as much as 45% in CY26. Macquarie expects spodumene prices to peak in CY28 around US$3,469 (roughly 146% higher than the current price), before settling back to around US$2,063 by CY30.

For lithium carbonate, Macquarie’s US$19,875 forecast suggests a 40% rebound in CY24, building to a peak of US$37,500 in CY28 (roughly 164% higher than the current price), before settling back to around US$27,500 in CY30. So, based on the data, it’s fair to say that Macquarie remains a long-term lithium bull.

ASX lithium stocks ratings & price targets downgraded​

Despite being bullish on lithium minerals in the long term, the reality of lower near-term prices has taken a toll on Macquarie’s views on several ASX lithium stocks. The broker has updated its earnings forecasts to account for the abovementioned lithium price changes, the result is “material EPS cuts over the next five years”.

Here’s a summary of the changes they’ve made to a selection of ASX lithium stocks in their coverage:

(Note: Macquarie has more ASX lithium stocks under coverage than any other major broker, so if you’re an Aussie lithium bull, it would be worth throwing some business their way to get hold of their top-notch research!)​

• Allkem (AKE) – FY24-FY28 earnings per share (“EPS”) estimates cut 36-90% due to lower lithium price forecasts, but higher long-term lithium price forecasts trigger a 36-90% increase in FY29-FY30 EPS estimates. Retains “Outperform” rating, price target falls to $12 from $17.
• Argosy (AGY) – FY24-FY28 EPS estimates cut 16-225%. Macquarie notes the big cut here is due to AGY’s earnings sensitivity to commodity price movements as Rincon ramps up. Retains “Neutral” rating, price target falls to $0.14 from $0.18.
• Core Lithium (CXO) – Macquarie points out “High fixed cost base due to its small production base” and “need for additional debt or equity” remain key downside risks. Downgrades rating to “Neutral” from “Outperform”, price target falls to $0.32 from $0.60.
• Global Lithium Resources (GL1) – FY26-FY28 EPS estimate cut 40-127% due to lower lithium price forecasts, but higher long-term lithium price forecasts trigger a 3-144% increase in FY29-FY30 EPS estimates. Downgrades rating to “Neutral” from “Outperform”, price target falls to $1.30 from $2.40.
• IGO – FY24-FY28 EPS estimates cut 41-77% due to lower lithium price forecasts, but plenty of nickel asset analysis is also going on here. Retains “Outperform” rating, price target falls to $10 from $15.
• Leo Lithium (LLL) – CY24-CY27 EPS estimate cut 50-110% due to lower lithium price forecasts, but higher long-term lithium price forecasts trigger a 20-34% increase in CY29-CY30 EPS estimates. Downgrades rating to “Neutral” from “Outperform”, price target falls to $0.50 from $1.00.
• Liontown Resources (LTR) – FY26-FY28 EPS estimate cut 29-84% due to lower lithium price forecasts, notes key risks are “ramp up profile of both the open pit and underground mines” and insufficient water supplies. Lower lithium prices “could result in the need for additional debt or equity” to help fund Kathleen Valley ramp up. Downgrades rating to “Neutral” from “Outperform”, price target falls to $1.60 from $2.20.
• Mineral Resources (MIN) – FY24-FY28 EPS estimates cut 23-81% due to lower lithium price forecasts, but higher long-term lithium price forecasts trigger a 1-20% increase in FY29-FY30 EPS estimates. Retains “Outperform” rating, price target falls to $76 from $85.
• Piedmont Lithium (PLL) – CY23-CY26 EPS estimates cut by around 100%. CY27 estimates are also reduced. Key risk: “operating cost assumptions”. Retains “Outperform” rating, price target falls to $0.60 from $1.40.
• Patriot Battery Metals (PMT) – FY26-FY28 EPS estimates cut 1-3% due to lower lithium price forecasts, but higher long-term lithium price forecasts trigger a 4-30% increase in FY29-FY30 EPS estimates. Macquarie labels PMT their top pick among ASX lithium explorers, believing it has the “greatest upside on exploration over the near term”. Key risks include “Variances in capital cost, operating cost and throughput assumption”. Retains “Outperform” rating, price target $2.10.
• Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – Good news PLS fans (I know there are many of you!), this is Macquarie’s “preferred” ASX lithium producer because it has “the most un-leveraged balance sheet in our lithium coverage universe and strong management team”. Retains “Outperform” rating, price target falls to $4.40 from $7.10 (ouch!).
• Sayona Mining (SYA) – FY24-FY30 EPS estimates cut 40-100% due to lower lithium price forecasts, but also due to the removal of lithium downstream processing in Macquarie’s base case. Biggest risks going forward include “impact of the onerous offtake agreement” and “variances between our estimates and actual tonnes mined”. Retains “Outperform” rating, price target falls to $0.09 from $0.17.

 

[Dave Evans]

Here’s Benchmark Minerals website link

Lithium Price Assessments | Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is the leading price reporting agency (PRA) for raw materials used in Lithium ion Batteries, electric vehicles and energy storage.

www.benchmarkminerals.com

 

[Frank]

Lithium price routed on supply surge​

The price of lithium was decimated in 2023, but predictions for next year are far from rosy. Lithium demand from electric vehicles is still growing rapidly, but the supply response has overwhelmed the market.

Global lithium supply, meanwhile, will jump by 40% in 2024, UBS said earlier this month, to more than 1.4 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.

Output in top producers Australia and Latin America will rise 22% and 29% respectively, while that in Africa is expected to double, driven by projects in Zimbabwe, the bank said.

Chinese production will also jump 40% in the next two years, said UBS, driven by a major CATL project in southern Jiangxi province.

The investment bank expects Chinese lithium carbonate prices could fall by more than 30% next year, dipping as low as 80,000 yuan ($14,800) per tonne in 2024, averaging at around 100,000 yuan, equivalent to production costs in Jiangxi, China’s biggest producing region of the chemical.

Lithium assets still in high demand​

In October, Albemarle Corp. walked away from its $4.2 billion takeover of Liontown Resources Ltd., after Australia’s richest woman built up a blocking minority and effectively scuppered one of the largest battery-metals deals to date.

Eager to add new supply, Albemarle had pursued its Perth-based target for months, eying its Kathleen Valley project — one of Australia’s most promising deposits. Liontown agreed to the US company’s “best and final” offer of A$3 a share in September — a near 100% premium to the price before Albemarle’s takeover interest was made public in March.

Albemarle had to contend with the arrival of combative mining tycoon Gina Rinehart, as her Hancock Prospecting steadily built up a 19.9% stake in Liontown. Last week, she became the single largest investor, with enough clout to potentially block a shareholder vote on the deal.

In December, SQM teamed up with Hancock Prospecting to make a sweetened A$1.7 billion ($1.14 billion) bid for Australian lithium developer Azure Minerals, the three parties said on Tuesday.

The deal would give the world’s no.2 lithium producer SQM a foothold in Australia with a stake in Azure’s Andover project and a partnership with Hancock, which has rail infrastructure and local experience in developing mines.

Chile, Mexico take control of lithium​

This week Chile’s President Gabriel Boric hailed the formation of a new government-controlled lithium partnership that fuses assets of state-run Codelco with private miner SQM, as the leftist leader advances his push for greater public control over the battery metal.

SQM said it would partner with copper giant Codelco for the future development and production of the metal in the Atacama salt flat, in a tie-up set to kick off in 2025 and run through 2060.

www.mining.com

Jiangxi expands lithium base in quality push for industrial ecosystem ​

East China’s Jiangxi province is actively leveraging its advantages in upstream lithium resources to expand downstream sectors such as battery and electric-vehicle manufacturing, with a view to becoming a leading industrial cluster.

The province has already formed three major lithium battery industrial bases in Yichun, Xinyu, and Ganzhou, and various clusters for lithium-battery manufacturing in cities such as Nanchang, Shangrao, Pingxiang and Fuzhou.

Last year, the total value of Jiangxi’s lithium battery and new energy industry reached 406.51 billion yuan, a 120.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth, according to the provincial government.

The province has developed a complete industrial chain covering mining and production of major battery materials, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles (NEV) and power storage facilities, said Jiang Mingcheng, deputy head of the Industry and Information Technology Department of Jiangxi Province.

Yichun, a city in the northwest of Jiangxi with abundant lithium resources, is optimising its business environment to attract top-tier lithium battery companies.

In September, Yichun launched a plan to promote the development of the new-energy sector with an emphasis on the lithium-battery industry, aiming to advance the industry chain toward high-end, intelligent, green and integrated development.

The city hoped its lithium battery and new-energy industry would achieve a revenue of 250 billion yuan by 2026.

To realise the vision, the local government said in the action plan that it will intensify lithium-rich mica mineral resource extraction, develop technologies for extracting lithium from salt lakes and lithium spodumene mineral, and enhance its industrial ecosystem.

Further efforts will also be made to promote the progress of major projects from battery giants like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) and Gotion High-tech, to further expand the production capacity of lithium carbonate, battery materials and batteries.

CATL’s first project in Yichun, the Yichun Times Battery Factory phase one, garnered a total investment of 13.5 billion yuan with a planned annual production capacity of 50 gigawatt-hours for lithium-ion batteries and energy-storage batteries.

The project’s first battery-cell factory has been put into operation.

Besides supporting leading battery makers to set up branches in Yichun, the local government said the city will also promote the establishment of research and development institutions by leading enterprises like CATL, as well as green development of lithium resources, recycling of used lithium batteries, and lithium slag utilisation.

Last year, Yichun produced over 140,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, accounting for about one-third of the country’s total.

In just three years, revenues from the lithium battery and new-energy industry in Yichun grew five-fold, from less than 20 billion yuan in 2020 to 111.7 billion yuan in 2022.

Similarly, in the southern part of Jiangxi, Ganzhou, capitalising on its resource advantages and industrial base, has introduced innovation incentives and favourable policies for digital infrastructure, and to attract talent to support the sector.

Ganzhou’s focus on new-energy development includes steel-shell lithium batteries, pouch-cell batteries and industries relevant to the industry chain.

It said further efforts are also expected to nurture specialised and sophisticated enterprises that produce new and unique products.

Ganzhou Haohai New Materials Co Ltd, a company specialising in recycling waste lithium batteries and other lithium-containing materials, is located in Longnan, Ganzhou.

The company saw revenue from its main businesses reach 120 million yuan in 2022.

“Thanks to government support, we managed to commence production quickly, providing a sense of confidence to seize opportunities in a favourable business environment,” said Liao Longjiang, an executive at the company.

As a key part of Ganzhou’s efforts to develop the lithium battery industry, Longnan, where Ganzhou Haohai is located, is striving to build a 100 billion yuan lithium-battery industry cluster, said Long Haibin, deputy mayor of Longnan.

In western Jiangxi, Xinyu, a city home to over 70 lithium-battery companies including several industry leaders like Ganfeng Lithium, has formed a relatively complete industry chain with products being exported to the United States, Japan, South Korea and some European countries, according to the local government. — China Daily/ANN


*Food for thought

 

[Dave Evans]

Lithium price routed on supply surge​

The price of lithium was decimated in 2023, but predictions for next year are far from rosy. Lithium demand from electric vehicles is still growing rapidly, but the supply response has overwhelmed the market.

Global lithium supply, meanwhile, will jump by 40% in 2024, UBS said earlier this month, to more than 1.4 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.

Output in top producers Australia and Latin America will rise 22% and 29% respectively, while that in Africa is expected to double, driven by projects in Zimbabwe, the bank said.

Chinese production will also jump 40% in the next two years, said UBS, driven by a major CATL project in southern Jiangxi province.

The investment bank expects Chinese lithium carbonate prices could fall by more than 30% next year, dipping as low as 80,000 yuan ($14,800) per tonne in 2024, averaging at around 100,000 yuan, equivalent to production costs in Jiangxi, China’s biggest producing region of the chemical.

Lithium assets still in high demand​

In October, Albemarle Corp. walked away from its $4.2 billion takeover of Liontown Resources Ltd., after Australia’s richest woman built up a blocking minority and effectively scuppered one of the largest battery-metals deals to date.

Eager to add new supply, Albemarle had pursued its Perth-based target for months, eying its Kathleen Valley project — one of Australia’s most promising deposits. Liontown agreed to the US company’s “best and final” offer of A$3 a share in September — a near 100% premium to the price before Albemarle’s takeover interest was made public in March.

Albemarle had to contend with the arrival of combative mining tycoon Gina Rinehart, as her Hancock Prospecting steadily built up a 19.9% stake in Liontown. Last week, she became the single largest investor, with enough clout to potentially block a shareholder vote on the deal.

In December, SQM teamed up with Hancock Prospecting to make a sweetened A$1.7 billion ($1.14 billion) bid for Australian lithium developer Azure Minerals, the three parties said on Tuesday.

The deal would give the world’s no.2 lithium producer SQM a foothold in Australia with a stake in Azure’s Andover project and a partnership with Hancock, which has rail infrastructure and local experience in developing mines.

Chile, Mexico take control of lithium​

This week Chile’s President Gabriel Boric hailed the formation of a new government-controlled lithium partnership that fuses assets of state-run Codelco with private miner SQM, as the leftist leader advances his push for greater public control over the battery metal.

SQM said it would partner with copper giant Codelco for the future development and production of the metal in the Atacama salt flat, in a tie-up set to kick off in 2025 and run through 2060.

www.mining.com

Jiangxi expands lithium base in quality push for industrial ecosystem ​

East China’s Jiangxi province is actively leveraging its advantages in upstream lithium resources to expand downstream sectors such as battery and electric-vehicle manufacturing, with a view to becoming a leading industrial cluster.

The province has already formed three major lithium battery industrial bases in Yichun, Xinyu, and Ganzhou, and various clusters for lithium-battery manufacturing in cities such as Nanchang, Shangrao, Pingxiang and Fuzhou.

Last year, the total value of Jiangxi’s lithium battery and new energy industry reached 406.51 billion yuan, a 120.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth, according to the provincial government.

The province has developed a complete industrial chain covering mining and production of major battery materials, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles (NEV) and power storage facilities, said Jiang Mingcheng, deputy head of the Industry and Information Technology Department of Jiangxi Province.

Yichun, a city in the northwest of Jiangxi with abundant lithium resources, is optimising its business environment to attract top-tier lithium battery companies.

In September, Yichun launched a plan to promote the development of the new-energy sector with an emphasis on the lithium-battery industry, aiming to advance the industry chain toward high-end, intelligent, green and integrated development.

The city hoped its lithium battery and new-energy industry would achieve a revenue of 250 billion yuan by 2026.

To realise the vision, the local government said in the action plan that it will intensify lithium-rich mica mineral resource extraction, develop technologies for extracting lithium from salt lakes and lithium spodumene mineral, and enhance its industrial ecosystem.

Further efforts will also be made to promote the progress of major projects from battery giants like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) and Gotion High-tech, to further expand the production capacity of lithium carbonate, battery materials and batteries.

CATL’s first project in Yichun, the Yichun Times Battery Factory phase one, garnered a total investment of 13.5 billion yuan with a planned annual production capacity of 50 gigawatt-hours for lithium-ion batteries and energy-storage batteries.

The project’s first battery-cell factory has been put into operation.

Besides supporting leading battery makers to set up branches in Yichun, the local government said the city will also promote the establishment of research and development institutions by leading enterprises like CATL, as well as green development of lithium resources, recycling of used lithium batteries, and lithium slag utilisation.

Last year, Yichun produced over 140,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, accounting for about one-third of the country’s total.

In just three years, revenues from the lithium battery and new-energy industry in Yichun grew five-fold, from less than 20 billion yuan in 2020 to 111.7 billion yuan in 2022.

Similarly, in the southern part of Jiangxi, Ganzhou, capitalising on its resource advantages and industrial base, has introduced innovation incentives and favourable policies for digital infrastructure, and to attract talent to support the sector.

Ganzhou’s focus on new-energy development includes steel-shell lithium batteries, pouch-cell batteries and industries relevant to the industry chain.

It said further efforts are also expected to nurture specialised and sophisticated enterprises that produce new and unique products.

Ganzhou Haohai New Materials Co Ltd, a company specialising in recycling waste lithium batteries and other lithium-containing materials, is located in Longnan, Ganzhou.

The company saw revenue from its main businesses reach 120 million yuan in 2022.

“Thanks to government support, we managed to commence production quickly, providing a sense of confidence to seize opportunities in a favourable business environment,” said Liao Longjiang, an executive at the company.

As a key part of Ganzhou’s efforts to develop the lithium battery industry, Longnan, where Ganzhou Haohai is located, is striving to build a 100 billion yuan lithium-battery industry cluster, said Long Haibin, deputy mayor of Longnan.

In western Jiangxi, Xinyu, a city home to over 70 lithium-battery companies including several industry leaders like Ganfeng Lithium, has formed a relatively complete industry chain with products being exported to the United States, Japan, South Korea and some European countries, according to the local government. — China Daily/ANN


*Food for thought



View attachment 53021

View attachment 53020​

View attachment 53022

UBS known for putting out reports to manipulate the market to sell a commodity so they can then go in and scoop up shares on the cheap. Once they manage to get the shares cheap they usually then put out a report to bump up the share price and then sell. I’ve seen them do it over and over @Frank

UBS is also a T10 shareholder of Omni Bridgeway, I mean how sus can you possibly get. The lithium that comes out of China is low grade. I’ll post Benchmark Minerals report on China’s lithium for you soon.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, Albermarle has supposedly been looking at Manono for some time. Perhaps if the ‘Gringo’s’ get in with Tshisekedi’s plan to build a battery hub around the DRC - Zambia border, Albermarle might just make an offer

Food for thought Frank?

 

[Dave Evans]

Here's some of what Benchmark Minerals says @Frank

Lithium prices experienced a major correction in 2023, following a 2022 that saw prices reach unprecedented levels. Consumers across the supply chain built inventories, which paired with a slowdown in the Chinese EV market, pushed prices lower at the start of the year. Supply also grew in 2023, in particular from spodumene operations in Africa and lepidolite in China. However, much of this new output came from lower grade sources, creating an increasingly steep cost curve. Lithium prices are still up 139% compared to when the cycle started in 2020, but the low price environment is already pushing away capital investments into the sector. This could impact new supply coming online to meet the expected demand for lithium, which is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 20% between now and 2030, according to Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast.

Cobalt supply also increased significantly thanks to CMOC’s Kinsafu mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This week, elections in the DRC were in focus as the country is a major cobalt and copper producer, two key elements needed for the energy transition.

 

[Dave Evans]

03/01/2024


Dwayne Sparkes
@sparkes_dwayne

No coffee today as I spat it out reading Goldman Sachs' lithium supply table which popped up in my twitter feed. What i find most intriguing about this table is that it states the majority of lithium supply will come from China itself, in particular internal lepidolite and brine. In my opinion, this is unrealistic and the numbers don't quite seem logical. Lets break down the lepidolite numbers: They are predicting that 462,000t of LCE will be produced internally from Chinese lepidolite in the year 2030.

Using a previous post of mine (i'll put the link in the comments below), for a lepidolite ore of grade 0.55%, you need approximately 14 tonnes of lepidolite to get SC6 equivalent. Roughly 6 tonnes of SC6 is needed for 1 tonne of LCE. You need around about 14 * 6 = 84 tonnes of lepidolite ore grading 0.55% to get 1 tonne of LCE... 84 * 462,000t LCE = 38,808,000 tonnes of ore grading 0.55% to meet 2030 yearly output prediction alone. That's 6 years away... The largest documented lepidolite mine within China is the "414 Mine". Approximately has 130Mt @ 0.38% li2O. That's roughly equivalent to a #GL1 Manna deposit in terms of contained lithium. Plug the above 0.38% into the previous calc and you're almost processing half of China's biggest documented lepidolite deposit yearly... Defies logic for me. Also, the above is just talking about pure tonnage. The waste products (which i've touched on in previous posts) from the deleterious elements (iron, fluorine, potassium, etc.) within lepidolite will be astronomical. There are already reports of converters sending ore back and tailing storages blowing out in size. How is it going to look when you are processing 38Mt+ of low grade lepidolite ore a year? Lepidolite contains more deleterious elements than spodumene, is generally lower grade, is slower and more difficult to process, especially in the leaching stage. I'm sticking to my view that the lepidolite deposits and stockpiles get exhausted soon and that the processing of lepidolite is a short term attempt by China to squash the market. IMO there is no chance lepidolite will ever be cheaper than spodumene to process and it isn't a realistic solution to meet future lithium demand. Cheers for reading.







Anatol (D M Deniz)
@anatol414

GS's forecasts are complete BS I will post it on hotcrapper soon, but posting here now. Here is a breakdown of GS's table by me. GS says China is being the largest miner of lithium in the world after 2024 and between 2025-2030. Bigger than Australia..! Read my comments on table

 

[Dave Evans]

03/01/2024

Juan Carlos Zuleta
@jczuleta

1/ 2 #lithium chemical prices went up, 1 fell & 5 remained unchanged, while all Li ore prices fell today in the Chinese spot market. At 11:30, LC futures fell by 0.35% (on average) decreasing the gap with average spot Li2CO3 prices to CNY 9,394, meaning we're still in contango.






https://twitter.com/Dr_ManhattanASX
Dr_Manhattan
@Dr_ManhattanASX

That spodumene spot price drop is brutal Deeper and deeper into territory where high-cost curve supply starts to become uneconomical. Jan also usually pretty quiet. More destocking still to come. I feel like this is setting up the sector for the next up cycle. Seen it all before



https://twitter.com/helios_newy
HELIOS

 

[Dave Evans]

05/01/2023

Dwayne Sparkes
@sparkes_dwayne

A couple of days have passed now and I’ve slowly recovered from reading the GS supply table. Some more ramblings on the current lithium market whilst I sip my morning coffee (managed to get this one down). Following on from my previous post regarding lepidolite production within China. The Chinese have shown that they are willing to mine spodumene at a near loss. It seems they aren’t too bothered about losses at the mining stage if it means greater control over the market.

Alita with the whole Bald Hill mine debacle, were allegedly selling Spod concentrate from Bald Hill well below the current market price (70% under) to their Chinese offtake partner… See screenshotted article below. So why is China suppressing the price with low grade internal sources? I believe Its to bide time to build stakes in overseas, high quality lithium plays, predominantly Africa given the Australians and Canadians aren’t willing to play ball. Chris and Gina are well aware of this, and its most likely they are aware that the lepidolite reserves are a short term band-aid solution. As per my last post, you need roughly 84 tonnes of lepidolite ore to make 1 tonne of LCE.

The contained lithium content of these low grade lepidolite mines is miniscule. The numbers below speak for themselves. ‘414 Mine’ has 130Mt @ 0.38% li2O. Contained lithium = 0.0038 x 130Mt = 0.494 Mt li2O. That’s roughly 1.22Mt of LCE. Compare that to Kathleen Valley. 156 Mt @ 1.4%. Contained lithium = 0.014 * 156Mt = 2.184 Mt li20. That’s roughly 5.4Mt of LCE So the ‘414 Mine’ is around 20% of Kathleen Valley in terms of contained lithium…

Also its not just about size, its how quickly can you get it out of the ground. $LTR for example is going to be a 4mtpa operation for 700,000kta SC6. You’ll need a 14.7mtpa operation to get the equivalent output from lepidolite grading 0.38% (414 Mine grade). And that's just the initial beneficiation stage...

What we are seeing now is very similar to what happened with Iron ore. The Chinese attempted to use low quality, internal iron ore in order to manipulate the price. This turned out to be unsustainable and the price of Iron ore increased overtime. I believe we are seeing this again with in the form of Lepidolite. Its almost déjà vu in fact, the iron ore price plummeted 70-75% to a low of $37 a tonne in Dec 2015. Goldman Sachs' predicted the iron ore price to touch $35 a tonne in 2017 & 2018. The opposite happened and the price went ballistic. See chart below. Happy Friday everyone and cheers for reading.

 

[Dave Evans]

 

[Dave Evans]

https://twitter.com/sparkes_dwayne

 

[Dave Evans]

09/01/2024

 

[Dave Evans]

10/01/2024

 

[Frank]

Lithium (Fastmarkets Hydroxide CIF China, Japan and Korea)​

2023 Start: US$83,500/t
2023 Finish: US$16,580/t
High:US$83,500/t (January 1)
Low: US$16,580/t (December 29)
% Change: -80.14%


Lithium prices could never stay where they were, a level even Pilbara Minerals chief Dale Henderson said no one ever predicted or thought imaginable.

But it was the velocity of 2023’s price fall, which helped drag lithium-ion battery pack costs to a record low price of US$139/kWh in late 2023, that caught everyone off guard.

In September, Core Lithium was toasting a maiden profit, a reward for kicking its Grants lithium mine and broader Finniss project in the Northern Territory into gear in quick speed despite recovery issues and changes that would see it produce a little over half of the spodumene concentrate it initially planned.

By the start of January mining had been halted off the back of what Core said was an 85% fall in prices.

Initially Australian producers were shielded from a fast collapse in chemical prices. Lagging contract measures and a shortage of raw materials vis-a-vis processing capacity in China ensured the spodumene price remained profitable through most of the year.

But even the mighty Greenbushes mine was forced to curtail production amid a price fall as 6% Li2O spodumene prices fell from over US$8000/t (more in the US$4000-6000/t range as far as contracted volumes were concerned) to spot levels of a little over US$1000/t.

For producers selling product below the benchmark — pretty much all of them as higher prices incentivised lower product grades which improved overall recoveries — prices are certainly pushing on cash costs.

Will there be a shakeout of the lower quality producers? That remains to be seen. The majors certainly have the cash now to pounce if M&A becomes attractive again.

But there could be wariness given the historical volatility of the sector and the premiums even pre-development and exploration plays have commanded.

Liontown Resources was set for a top of the market — $6.6 billion — sale to America’s Albemarle last year before Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting built a $1.3 billion blocking stake that scuppered the sale and pushed its share price back to $1.48 (against the $3 bid price) yesterday.

Hancock has also partnered with SQM in a $3.70 per share bid — $1.7 billion — for pre-resource Pilbara explorer Azure Minerals, a sign the big dogs will still pay top dollar to own the yard in preparation for a future boom.


UP

• History tells us lithium price crashes like this tend to lead to underinvestment in new supply, and potentially higher prices down the line.

• DOWN
  
  
• Bears expect new sources of production from Africa and swing output in China could keep the lithium raw material market oversupplied in the near term.

Stockhead.com

AustralianSuper ups stakes in Pilbara Minerals​

Pension fund AustralianSuper has raised its stake in lithium miner Pilbara Minerals and alcohol retailer Endeavour Group, two separate exchange filings showed on Tuesday.

The stake increase makes AustralianSuper the largest stakeholder in Pilbara with a 6.1% interest, overtaking a Ganfeng Lithium Group subsidiary, which owns 5.74%, according to LSEG data.

AustralianSuper maintained its position as the third-largest shareholder in Endeavour, building its stake up to 8.8% from 7.65%.

The country’s largest pension fund, which manages over A$300 billion ($201.27 billion) of retirement savings, declined to comment on the stake increases.

AustralianSuper has, in the last few months, shifted its attitude towards investing in some of the country’s largest companies, and is now actively scooping up stakes in blue-chip firms to give itself more leverage and control on strategy.

It bought Pilbara shares worth A$558 million in November last year, at a time when domestic lithium miners were being closely watched by global players as acquisition targets.

www.mining.com

 

[Dave Evans]

Don’t post comments and uninformed opinions, just post facts

 

[Dave Evans]

18/01/2024



Thought i might do a quick post giving my view on lepidolite given its getting so much attention recently. The general consensus is that the reason the spot price of lithium hydroxide and spodumene concentrate are decreasing is due to the Chinese rapidly processing significant amount of lepidolite and brine internally.

Spodumene vs Lepidolite. Lepidolite - K(Li,Al) 3(Al,Si,Rb) 4O 10(F,OH) 2.

Spodumene - Li[AlSi2O6]. The amount of deleterious elements (junk) within lepidolite is much greater than spodumene. In one of my previous posts, I showed just how the deleterious elements multiply quickly throughout the concentration stage: Example: Say you've got a deposit that's li2O is 1.0%, 1.2% Fe2O3, a recovery rate of 75%. If you want to get SC6 and meet the specifications, you're going to need 8 tonnes of ore and you're going to have to deal with 9.6% Fe2O3!! An expensive process. Compare that with a company that has 1.5% li2O, 0.6% Fe2O3 and a recovery rate of 75%. They need 5.3 tonnes of ore to achieve SC6 and only have to deal with 3.2% Fe2O3.. From my research, you can expect the grades of lepidolite to be around the 0.55% li2O mark. If you plug 0.55% into the above, the deleterious elements are going to be insanely high: 0.55% li2O with 1.2% Fe2O3, a recovery rate of 75%. To get the SC6 equivalent, you need 14.5 tonnes of lepidolite and the iron content will be 17.4%... No wonder there are claims of converters sending ore back and tailing storages blowing out in size. The above example only talks about the iron and its also only the initial concentration stage.

You've got other waste elements such as fluorine, potassium, etc. which are within lepidolite's chemical structure. After the lepidolite ore has been concentrated, it then comes to the next stage of producing hydroxide. Both spodumene and lepidolite have quite a similar processing technique: roasting, leaching and precipitation. However, the main difference comes in "dropping out the Fluorine" and also dealing with additional deleterious elements such as potassium, etc.. The concentrate is first roasted (although this step can now be skipped, see Lepidico's $LDP method) and then leached. The leached solution (leachate), contains both lithium and fluorine. The tricky part comes the separation of these two. This can be done by a number of methods. One of them is adjusting the Ph of the leachate which to put it simply causes the fluorine to separate. This generally doesn't need to be done for spodumene concentrate to the same degree as for lepidolite. This step adds cost and time to the leaching stage. So in summary, lepidolite contains more deleterious elements, is generally lower grade than spodumene, is slower and more difficult to process, especially in the leaching stage. In my opinion, there is no chance that lepidolite will ever be processed cheaper than spodumene.

Also, it seems that spodumene is actually more common than lepidolite from the deposits I've studied. Has anyone ever found an Andover that's lepidolite dominated!? I think the market is flooded with artisian mined lepidolite that will soon become exhausted.

 

[Dave Evans]

19/01/2024

 

[Dave Evans]

20/02/2024
Benchmark Minerals

In China, a new consortium of lithium ion battery heavyweights has been formed to develop a solid-state battery supply chain by 2030. Although the country is dominant in the production of traditional lithium ion batteries, the emerging market of solid-state batteries has yet to see any country take a dominating lead.

The consortium includes CATL and BYD, the world’s leading battery producers and fierce rivals. China seems to hope that competitors will collaborate together to meet the country’s next-generation ambitions.

While China is looking to extend its dominance to next-gen batteries, the US is catching up in lithium ion. In the US, automaker General Motors has signed a KRW 25 trillion ($18.7 billion) to secure cathode active material from South Korea’s LG Chem. The agreement will see LG Chem supply GM with 500,000 tonnes of material until 2035.

Also in the US, Syrah Resources has started production of natural graphite anode active material at its Vidalia plant in Louisiana. It is the first commercial scale vertically integrated natural graphite anode maker outside of China.

 

[Dave Evans]

06/03/2024
Flight996 Posted

Our favorite shorter and recidivist manipulator, Goldman Sachs (GS) has struck gold again:

Lithium, nickel bear market ‘far from over’: Goldman​

The broker now sees lithium prices crashing a further 25 per cent, and nickel slumping 15 per cent over the next 12 months.
www.afr.com

GS said that the recent recovery in battery metals, cobalt, nickel and Li carbonate did not signal the end of the bear market, but was due to short covering. GS said that the metals are likely to trade even lower over the next 12 months. Specifically, cobalt (-12%), nickel (-15%) and Li carbonate (-25%).

GS also stated that lithium markets will be in 150,000 tonne surplus in 2024, and 336,000 tonne surplus in 2025. This means that further supply cuts will be needed to rebalance supply and demand markets. Presumably, supply cuts will come from further mothballing of uneconomic projects, more marginal mines and processing facilities put into care and maintenance, and less spent on greenfield exploration and development.

GS’s 12-month price target for Li carbonate is now $US10,000/t (down from its previous prediction of $US11,000/t).

Watch the market and our recent gains fall away, and GS pick up brazillions on its self-serving predictions. Thanks again GS.

You can get over the paywall by using the following:

RemovePaywall | Free online paywall remover​

Remove Paywall, free online paywall remover. Get access to articles without having to pay or login. Works on Bloomberg and hundreds more.
www.removepaywall.com

• Simply copy the required AFR URL
• Paste it to Remove Paywall
• Hit return

Cheers
F

 

[Dave Evans]

06/03/2024
Flight996 Posted

Our favorite shorter and recidivist manipulator, Goldman Sachs (GS) has struck gold again:

Lithium, nickel bear market ‘far from over’: Goldman​

The broker now sees lithium prices crashing a further 25 per cent, and nickel slumping 15 per cent over the next 12 months.
www.afr.com

GS said that the recent recovery in battery metals, cobalt, nickel and Li carbonate did not signal the end of the bear market, but was due to short covering. GS said that the metals are likely to trade even lower over the next 12 months. Specifically, cobalt (-12%), nickel (-15%) and Li carbonate (-25%).

GS also stated that lithium markets will be in 150,000 tonne surplus in 2024, and 336,000 tonne surplus in 2025. This means that further supply cuts will be needed to rebalance supply and demand markets. Presumably, supply cuts will come from further mothballing of uneconomic projects, more marginal mines and processing facilities put into care and maintenance, and less spent on greenfield exploration and development.

GS’s 12-month price target for Li carbonate is now $US10,000/t (down from its previous prediction of $US11,000/t).

Watch the market and our recent gains fall away, and GS pick up brazillions on its self-serving predictions. Thanks again GS.

You can get over the paywall by using the following:

RemovePaywall | Free online paywall remover​

Remove Paywall, free online paywall remover. Get access to articles without having to pay or login. Works on Bloomberg and hundreds more.
www.removepaywall.com

• Simply copy the required AFR URL
• Paste it to Remove Paywall
• Hit return

Cheers
F

Thought I would add this to the above post from @Flight996 because in my experience these three investment banks are the biggest manipulators of commodities I have seen in all the years I have traded and invested in shares.

It’s deceptive how often they downgrade commodities so they can scoop them up then conversely say there will be an increase in demand leading to a supply deficit when they want to sell them.

It’s how they works make money but it’s the inexperienced and poorly informed investors that get caught by this.

To be honest I didn’t even read the article, I’ve read the them too many times over the years I just thought I would add it to this thread

Lithium

Citi and UBS weigh in on lithium rally: Don’t assume low is in yet​

By Carl Capolingua
Wed 06 Mar 24, 1:28pm (AEDT)

Source: Shutterstock

Stocks in article​

IGO
MktCap:
$5.8B
PLS
MktCap:
$12.3B
MIN
MktCap:
$12.5B
LTR
MktCap:
$3.0B

Commodities in article​

Lithium
KEY POINTS

• Lithium prices crashed in 2023, but have experienced a modest rally in 2024
• Many ASX lithium stocks have suffered massive share price falls, but are now starting to recover
• The recent rally has triggered commentary from two brokers, both who warn about irrational optimism

News Flash: Lithium prices have turned!
You probably knew this, after all, who hasn’t been following the trials and tribulations in the lithium market lately? And why not, the moves have been breathtaking. Just looking at lithium carbonate futures, we’re talking about a 46% rally since the December low of RMB 85,400 to the RMB 125,000 peak on 4 March.

The lithium carbonate price has rallied strongly since December​

There’s two big buts here:

• Big but 1: Even at the 4 March peak prices were still down around 80% from the all-time highs; and,
• Big but 2: The price tanked 5% yesterday so it’s clear that the sellers aren’t completely done just yet (dun-dun-duuuun!)

The boffins at major brokers Citi and UBS have also noticed the fledgling lithium rally, and in separate research notes released this morning, they’ve weighed in on its likely sustainability.

Citi on the lithium rally​

Citi says lithium demand growth “remains strong”, but as far as the current rally goes, they’re “waiting on [the] supply response at current prices”. The broker has formed a view that “lithium prices have bottomed near-term and that long-term demand growth rates remain intact”.

The reasons for Citi’s optimism are drawn from a recent chat with consultant Chris Berry of House Mountain Partners. Berry suggests as much as 200kt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) supply is “either not economical or at risk at current prices”.
The pivotal factor determining near-term price action is whether this supply withdraws from the market or continues to commit. Citi agrees with this view but notes there are few other “short term positive catalysts” to support the current rally. Still, they believe prices can “slowly move up towards ~$20k/t” by the end of this year.
US$20,000/t equates approximately RMB 144,000 at the current exchange rate. This is a tidy premium to the current spot lithium carbonate price of RMB 107,500/t. If Citi’s price prediction is correct, lithium bulls could enjoy a solid recovery in ASX lithium stocks this year.

In the longer term, Citi again cites Mr Berry’s analysis which suggests the lithium price recovery may continue beyond 2024. Here are a few bullets from Citi’s analysis which are likely to have the greatest positive impact the lithium market in the long term:

• As more battery capacity comes on stream, battery costs will fall to achieve parity between EVs and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2026-27
• Lower battery costs will drive greater EV penetration (to 20% in Western markets)
• Higher costs of funding and low lithium prices have “begun to take a toll on large market participants” and this will crimp supply in the medium term, Berry forecasts a significant supply deficit (200kt/p.a.) over the next 10 years
• Around 200kt of lepidolite supply is at risk at spot prices, and some Australian spodumene producers are also compromised, suggests a price floor around US$20,000/t-US$25,000/t “is needed to incentivize new supply”
• Chinese lepidolite is unlikely to flood the market as producers are “not vertically integrated”, would be required to achieve this to operate at current prices

UBS on the lithium rally​

UBS is also sounding an optimistic tone on short-term lithium prices. They suggest “more supply has been curtailed, slowed or delayed” since their last update on the lithium market. This has caused the broker to slash their expected 2024 surplus from 142kt to 94kt. To put this into perspective, it’s the difference between 6 weeks of market supply and just 4 weeks.

Reasons for the curtailment include a slowing in Chinese lepidolite supply, environmental inspections in China, delays and production cutbacks at key major producers, and “new projects are being pushed out”.

UBS suggests recent market moves reflect “progress towards rebalancing” but warns “it could be transitory if price sentiment lifts too far too fast”. The broker is concerned market participants will view the recent rally as the much-anticipated restocking rally and overestimate the sustainability of short term demand, when in fact the market remains in surplus.

If market participants choose to restart supply in anticipation of higher prices, UBS is concerned the rally will die out swiftly. “For now, we don’t see enough potential demand growth to absorb possible restarts”, they say. In this scenario, UBS expects “sideways/lower futures prices” until the end of June.

Assuming the supply side can restrain themselves, UBS notes there some restocking is currently underway and this could assist prices to be “well bid in March/April”. But even with supply side restraint, UBS believes “as restocking completes and environmental inspections normalise, we see the current rally fading into mid-year.”

On equities, UBS suggests ASX lithium stocks have “run ahead of fundamentals and are pricing in well above spot/our revised forecasts”. As a result, the broker has cut its rating on IGO (ASX: IGO) from NEUTRAL to SELL (i.e., the same rating they have on Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS)and Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN)) and has also cut its rating on Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) from BUY to NEUTRAL.

Conclusion​

Clearly the lithium market is in a far more balanced position than it was before December’s nadir. However, according to our learned friends at Citi and UBS, it remains in a state of substantial flux and there’s great uncertainty as to whether “the low” is in. Lithium investors should be mindful that prices can overshoot to the upside, too.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/citi-and-ubs-weigh-in-on-lithium-rally-dont-assume-low-is-in-yet

 

[Winenut]

Thought I would add this to the above post from @Flight996 because in my experience these three investment banks are the biggest manipulators of commodities I have seen in all the years I have traded and invested in shares.

It’s deceptive how often they downgrade commodities so they can scoop them up then conversely say there will be an increase in demand leading to a supply deficit when they want to sell them.

It’s how they works make money but it’s the inexperienced and poorly informed investors that get caught by this.

To be honest I didn’t even read the article, I’ve read the them too many times over the years I just thought I would add it to this thread

Lithium

Citi and UBS weigh in on lithium rally: Don’t assume low is in yet​

By Carl Capolingua
Wed 06 Mar 24, 1:28pm (AEDT)

Source: Shutterstock

Stocks in article​

IGO
MktCap:
$5.8B
PLS
MktCap:
$12.3B
MIN
MktCap:
$12.5B
LTR
MktCap:
$3.0B

Commodities in article​

Lithium
KEY POINTS

• Lithium prices crashed in 2023, but have experienced a modest rally in 2024
• Many ASX lithium stocks have suffered massive share price falls, but are now starting to recover
• The recent rally has triggered commentary from two brokers, both who warn about irrational optimism

News Flash: Lithium prices have turned!
You probably knew this, after all, who hasn’t been following the trials and tribulations in the lithium market lately? And why not, the moves have been breathtaking. Just looking at lithium carbonate futures, we’re talking about a 46% rally since the December low of RMB 85,400 to the RMB 125,000 peak on 4 March.

The lithium carbonate price has rallied strongly since December​

There’s two big buts here:

• Big but 1: Even at the 4 March peak prices were still down around 80% from the all-time highs; and,
• Big but 2: The price tanked 5% yesterday so it’s clear that the sellers aren’t completely done just yet (dun-dun-duuuun!)

The boffins at major brokers Citi and UBS have also noticed the fledgling lithium rally, and in separate research notes released this morning, they’ve weighed in on its likely sustainability.

Citi on the lithium rally​

Citi says lithium demand growth “remains strong”, but as far as the current rally goes, they’re “waiting on [the] supply response at current prices”. The broker has formed a view that “lithium prices have bottomed near-term and that long-term demand growth rates remain intact”.

The reasons for Citi’s optimism are drawn from a recent chat with consultant Chris Berry of House Mountain Partners. Berry suggests as much as 200kt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) supply is “either not economical or at risk at current prices”.
The pivotal factor determining near-term price action is whether this supply withdraws from the market or continues to commit. Citi agrees with this view but notes there are few other “short term positive catalysts” to support the current rally. Still, they believe prices can “slowly move up towards ~$20k/t” by the end of this year.
US$20,000/t equates approximately RMB 144,000 at the current exchange rate. This is a tidy premium to the current spot lithium carbonate price of RMB 107,500/t. If Citi’s price prediction is correct, lithium bulls could enjoy a solid recovery in ASX lithium stocks this year.

In the longer term, Citi again cites Mr Berry’s analysis which suggests the lithium price recovery may continue beyond 2024. Here are a few bullets from Citi’s analysis which are likely to have the greatest positive impact the lithium market in the long term:

• As more battery capacity comes on stream, battery costs will fall to achieve parity between EVs and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2026-27
• Lower battery costs will drive greater EV penetration (to 20% in Western markets)
• Higher costs of funding and low lithium prices have “begun to take a toll on large market participants” and this will crimp supply in the medium term, Berry forecasts a significant supply deficit (200kt/p.a.) over the next 10 years
• Around 200kt of lepidolite supply is at risk at spot prices, and some Australian spodumene producers are also compromised, suggests a price floor around US$20,000/t-US$25,000/t “is needed to incentivize new supply”
• Chinese lepidolite is unlikely to flood the market as producers are “not vertically integrated”, would be required to achieve this to operate at current prices

UBS on the lithium rally​

UBS is also sounding an optimistic tone on short-term lithium prices. They suggest “more supply has been curtailed, slowed or delayed” since their last update on the lithium market. This has caused the broker to slash their expected 2024 surplus from 142kt to 94kt. To put this into perspective, it’s the difference between 6 weeks of market supply and just 4 weeks.

Reasons for the curtailment include a slowing in Chinese lepidolite supply, environmental inspections in China, delays and production cutbacks at key major producers, and “new projects are being pushed out”.

UBS suggests recent market moves reflect “progress towards rebalancing” but warns “it could be transitory if price sentiment lifts too far too fast”. The broker is concerned market participants will view the recent rally as the much-anticipated restocking rally and overestimate the sustainability of short term demand, when in fact the market remains in surplus.

If market participants choose to restart supply in anticipation of higher prices, UBS is concerned the rally will die out swiftly. “For now, we don’t see enough potential demand growth to absorb possible restarts”, they say. In this scenario, UBS expects “sideways/lower futures prices” until the end of June.

Assuming the supply side can restrain themselves, UBS notes there some restocking is currently underway and this could assist prices to be “well bid in March/April”. But even with supply side restraint, UBS believes “as restocking completes and environmental inspections normalise, we see the current rally fading into mid-year.”

On equities, UBS suggests ASX lithium stocks have “run ahead of fundamentals and are pricing in well above spot/our revised forecasts”. As a result, the broker has cut its rating on IGO (ASX: IGO) from NEUTRAL to SELL (i.e., the same rating they have on Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS)and Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN)) and has also cut its rating on Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) from BUY to NEUTRAL.

Conclusion​

Clearly the lithium market is in a far more balanced position than it was before December’s nadir. However, according to our learned friends at Citi and UBS, it remains in a state of substantial flux and there’s great uncertainty as to whether “the low” is in. Lithium investors should be mindful that prices can overshoot to the upside, too.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/citi-and-ubs-weigh-in-on-lithium-rally-dont-assume-low-is-in-yet

Totally agree Dave

I remember buying a coal stock back in the day that had a glowing report from Macquarie I think.

I read the research and had a go

Next fucking research article was like doom and gloom and total opposite with a different researcher and only a week or two later....no shit

Cost me fucking heaps

I still think now I would have had a decent case to sue the fucking arse off them for either decpetive practice or simply fucked and inept analysis

Still hold the stock

Been suspended and can't even sell it to offset some gains

Been years and coal's really popular now.....

Learnt the hard way to trust my own research and insticts and fuck the instos and investment banks right off......or......do the opposite of what they "promote"