RobjHunt
Regular
Your sarcasm is terribly inforbidableMy secret hobby is losing money. If they start signing contracts, then I am definitely out!
Your sarcasm is terribly inforbidableMy secret hobby is losing money. If they start signing contracts, then I am definitely out!
Fair chance that he doesn’t. He’s a Kiwi after allYou do realise if you a premium member on LinkedIn that you can see who has looked at your LinkedIn profile. This way you should be able to see who at Nivida looked at your profile.
Source | Base Year | Base Value (USD) | Forecast Year | Forecast Value (USD Bn) | CAGR (%) | Notes |
Precedence Research 25 | 2024 | $6.90 Bn | 2034 | $47.31 | 21.23% (25-34) | Hardware 80% share (2024) |
GlobeNewswire (1) 34 | 2024 | $28.5 Million | 2030 | $1.32 | 89.7% (24-30) | Based on IoT Analytics / ResearchAndMarkets? |
Allied Market Research 35 | 2020 | $26.32 Million | 2030 | $8.58 | 77.00% (Hardware) | |
MarketsandMarkets 36 | 2024 | $28.5 Million | 2030 | $1.33 | 89.7% (24-30) | Aligned with GlobeNewswire (1) |
Dimension Market Research 37 | 2024 | $6.7 Bn | 2033 | $55.6 | 26.4% (24-33) | Aligned with Precedence Research scale |
Source | Base Year | Base Value (USD Bn) | Forecast Year | Forecast Value (USD Bn) | CAGR (%) | Notes |
ResearchAndMarkets 38 | 2025 | $53.54 | 2030 | $81.99 | 8.84% (25-30) | |
Precedence Research 40* | 2025 | $10.13 | 2034 | $113.71 | 30.83% (25-34) | *Focuses on Edge AI Accelerators |
Roots Analysis 39 | 2024 | $24.05 | 2035 | $356.84 | 27.79% (24-35) | Hardware dominant component |
Grand View Research 41 | 2025 | $24.90 | 2030 | $66.47 | 21.7% (25-30) | Hardware 52.8% share (2024) |
STL Partners 42 | 2024 | ~$108 (Implied) | 2030 | $157 | ~6.4% (Implied) | TAM estimate; Computer Vision 50% share (2030) |
Feature | BrainChip Akida (Gen 1/2) | Intel Loihi 2 | Nvidia Jetson (e.g., Orin Nano) | Google Coral Dev Board Mini |
Architecture Type | Digital Neuromorphic (SNN/Event-Based) | Digital Neuromorphic (SNN/Event-Based) | GPU (ANN/Conventional) | ASIC (Edge TPU - ANN/Conventional) |
Power Profile | Ultra-Low (<1mW - ~1W typical) | Very Low (~2.5W reported) | Moderate-High (e.g., 7W-15W TDP) | Low (~2W reported) |
On-Chip Learning | Yes (Key Feature) | Yes | No (Requires offline training) | No (Requires offline training) |
Ecosystem/Software | MetaTF (TensorFlow/Keras based), Edge Impulse | Lava Framework, Loihi SDK | Mature (CUDA, TensorRT, JetPack SDK) | TensorFlow Lite, AutoML Edge |
Target Applications | Low-power sensing, KWS, VWW, anomaly det., vision | Research, potentially similar edge tasks | Robotics, vision, high-performance edge AI | Edge inference, prototyping |
Commercial Status | IP License, Dev Kits/Boards/Box Available | Primarily Research, IFS ecosystem partner | Widely Available (Modules/Dev Kits) | Widely Available (Modules/Dev Kits) |
Partner | Area/Application | Agreement Type | Announced Date | Known Status/Outcome |
Renesas Electronics | Edge AI SoCs (IoT, Infrastructure) | IP License (Akida 1.0) | Dec 2020 | Chip taped out Dec 2022. No reported royalties yet. Market adoption pending. |
MegaChips Corp. | Edge AI Solutions | IP License (Akida) | Nov 2021 | Product status/royalties unclear. |
Mercedes-Benz | Automotive (Keyword Spotting) | Collaboration (Concept Car) | Jan 2022 | Successful tech demo in Vision EQXX. No production vehicle win announced. |
Frontgrade Gaisler | Space (Radiation-Hardened Processors) | IP License (Akida 1.0) | Dec 2024 | Commercial license signed after successful ESA evaluation. Products likely in development. |
ISL | Defense/Aerospace (Radar Research) | Partnership | Mar 2025 | Joint promotion/services for Akida-based radar solutions. Followed EAP membership. |
AFRL (via Subcontractor) | Defense (Radar Processing) | Contract ($1.8M) | Dec 2024/Jan 2025 | Developing micro-Doppler analysis algorithms using Akida. |
Bascom Hunter | Defense/Commercial Product Evaluation | Contract ($100k) | Dec 2024 | Sale/support of AKD1500 chips for evaluation. |
NASA Ames | Spaceflight Applications | Evaluation Kit Purchase | Dec 2020 | Evaluating Akida technology. |
Socionext | Manufacturing Partner | Agreement | Jun 2019/Aug 2021 | Manufactured initial AKD1000 production chips. |
GlobalFoundries | Manufacturing Partner | Agreement | Jan 2023 | Taped out AKD1500 chip on 22nm FD-SOI process. Received first silicon Aug 2023. |
Intel Foundry Services | Foundry Ecosystem | Alliance Member | Dec 2022 | BrainChip joined IFS Accelerator IP Alliance. |
Edge Impulse | ML Development Platform | Partnership/Integration | Jan 2023/Aug 2022 | Akida platform supported on Edge Impulse for easier deployment. |
Arm | CPU Ecosystem | Partner Program Member | May 2022 | Integration with Cortex-M85 demonstrated. |
SiFive | CPU Ecosystem (RISC-V) | Partnership | Apr 2022 | Collaboration on AI/ML at the edge using RISC-V. |
He could take a free 30 day trial for premium LinkedIn that offers more transparency on who is looking at his LinkedIn profile that caters for budget conscious kiwis (your suggestion being a kiwi lol)Fair chance that he doesn’t. He’s a Kiwi after all![]()
Hi manny,PICO Via TENNs brings LLM's to the Edge.
BRN has barely scratched the surface with PICO. So much to look forward to.
It's only around 1sq mm.
Imagine what PICO can do now that Tony Lewis says we can migrate Traditional to State Space models (SSM). Pico runs on TENNs which is a type of SSM.
"The Future of AI on the Edge
The ability to run LLMs on the edge holds immense potential. Whether it’s in automotive systems, home appliances, or industrial equipment, BrainChip’s Akida Pico provides the intelligence needed to process data and respond in real-time without relying on cloud-based services. This has implications not just for improving device efficiency but also for lowering costs and enhancing data privacy.
As AI continues to evolve, BrainChip’s Akida Pico stands out as a pivotal development in the transition from cloud-reliant systems to powerful, independent edge AI solutions. This shift will undoubtedly reshape industries, making devices smarter, faster, and more efficient—without the need to pay for cloud services."
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BrainChip’s Akida Pico Brings Large Language Models to the Edge | ipXchange
"Discover how BrainChip's Akida Pico is revolutionizing AI by bringing large language models (LLMs) to the edge. Learn how this neural processor eliminates cloud dependency, reduces costs, and enhances device efficiency in smart appliances and industrial IoT."ipxchange.tech
Part 3
6. Financial Analysis and Health
BrainChip's financial position reflects its status as a pre-revenue or early-revenue technology company investing heavily in R&D and commercialization efforts while generating minimal income.
6.1. Historical Financial Performance (Revenue, Expenses, Net Loss)
BrainChip's reported revenues over the past three fiscal years (ending December 31) have been minimal and volatile, primarily reflecting upfront license fees or development kit sales rather than recurring royalties.
Operating expenses have remained substantial, although they decreased in FY 2024 compared to FY 2023.
- FY 2022:Revenue reported was approximately $5.1 million (or $7.5M per ), largely attributed to performance obligations related to a significant license agreement (likely Renesas or MegaChips) and sales of development kits.
- FY 2023:Revenue decreased dramatically to approximately $0.2 million. The company acknowledged it did not secure royalty-bearing IP sales agreements during the year.
- FY 2024:Revenue showed a slight increase to approximately $0.4 million (or $0.6M per ). The company explicitly stated it "did not deliver on its goal to achieve significant growth in license and product revenue".
Consistent operating losses have been reported year after year:
- FY 2022:Total operating expenses were approximately $27.0 million.
- FY 2023:Total operating expenses increased to approximately $28.8 million. Key components included Selling & Marketing ($4.7M, up 50% YoY) and Share-based payments ($11.4M, up 24% YoY).
- FY 2024:Total operating expenses decreased by 17% to $23.9 million. Research & Development (R&D) expenses were approximately $7.7 million, a 9% increase from FY 2023, driven by employee costs offset by reduced grant revenue and third-party service costs following the redundancy of the Australian R&D team.
These figures underscore the company's heavy reliance on its technology development and IP licensing model eventually generating significant revenue streams to offset substantial operating costs.
- FY 2022:Net loss after tax was $22.1 million.
- FY 2023:Net loss after tax widened to $28.9 million.
- FY 2024:Net loss after tax narrowed slightly to $24.4 million.
6.2. Cash Flow, Burn Rate, and Funding
The company's operating activities consistently consume cash.
Given the operating cash burn rate and minimal revenue, BrainChip remains heavily dependent on external funding. Its primary funding source in recent years has been a Put Option Agreement (POA) with LDA Capital, first established in 2020 and subsequently amended.
- Quarterly Operating Cash Outflows:Recent quarterly reports indicate net operating cash outflows typically ranging from $3.4 million to $4.1 million per quarter. For the quarter ending Dec 31, 2024, net operating cash outflow was $4.1M, with minimal customer receipts ($0.05M) and payments to suppliers/employees of $4.3M. This suggests an annual operating cash burn rate in the vicinity of $15-17 million, excluding financing and investing activities.
- Cash Balance:As of December 31, 2024, the company reported a cash balance of approximately $20.0 million USD. This compares to $14.3 million USD at the end of 2023 and $23.2 million USD at the end of 2022. The increase during 2024 was due to financing activities.
This continuous need for funding highlights the financial risks associated with BrainChip. The company must carefully manage its cash reserves while striving to achieve revenue milestones before existing funding facilities are exhausted or market conditions become unfavorable for further capital raising. The ongoing dilution from the LDA facility and equity raises impacts per-share metrics and shareholder value.
- LDA Capital POA:This agreement allows BrainChip to issue shares to LDA Capital in exchange for cash, subject to certain conditions and pricing mechanisms. As of December 31, 2024, the total commitment amount under the amended POA was A$140 million, of which A$68 million in gross proceeds had been drawn since 2020. A further minimum drawdown of A$20 million is required by June 30, 2026. This facility provides access to capital but results in ongoing share issuance and dilution for existing shareholders. BrainChip issued 40 million shares under this facility in early 2025.
- Equity Capital Raise (July 2024):BrainChip raised A$25 million through a placement to institutional investors (A$20M), sale of existing shares from LDA (A$2M), and a Share Purchase Plan (SPP) for retail investors (A$3M), all at an issue price of A$0.193 per share.
- Option Exercises:The company also receives cash inflows from the exercise of employee stock options (e.g., $0.5M in Q4 2024).
6.3. Balance Sheet Analysis and Financial Health
BrainChip's balance sheet as of December 31, 2024, reflects its early-stage nature.
Overall, the balance sheet shows limited debt but a substantial accumulated deficit funded by significant equity issuance over time. The company's financial health is precarious and hinges entirely on its ability to generate future revenue and achieve profitability, or its continued access to capital markets. The current cash position ($20M as of Dec 2024 ) relative to the operating burn rate (~$4M per quarter ) suggests a cash runway extending through 2025, supported by the LDA facility and potential future raises, but achieving self-sufficiency remains a distant prospect based on current financials.
- Assets:Total assets were approximately $37.1 million USD. The vast majority consisted of current assets, primarily cash and cash equivalents ($32.2M, though this figure seems inconsistent with the $20M reported in the quarterly update - likely due to timing differences or reporting conventions). Non-current assets were minimal ($2.3M), mainly comprising property, plant & equipment and minor intangible assets. Capitalized R&D costs appear to be amortized or impaired rather than carried as significant intangible assets.
- Liabilities:Total liabilities were relatively low at $5.2 million USD. Current liabilities ($3.8M) included accounts payable and provisions. Long-term debt was minimal ($1.2M). The company highlights holding more cash than debt.
- Equity:Total shareholders' equity was $31.9 million USD. This primarily consisted of share capital ($269.9M) and reserves ($80.8M), offset by large accumulated losses/retained deficits (-$318.8M).
7. Stock Performance, Analyst Coverage, and Sentiment
7.1. Historical Stock Performance (ASX:BRN)
BrainChip's stock (ASX:BRN) has exhibited extreme volatility, characteristic of speculative technology stocks with significant future potential but limited current financial results.
7.2. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
- Price Range:Over the 52 weeks leading up to late 2024/early 2025, the stock traded in a wide range, for example, between A$0.155 and A$0.45. A research note from June 2024 cited a 52-week high/low of A$0.49 / A$0.15. The price was around A$0.20-A$0.27 in mid-to-late 2024/early 2025 according to various sources.
- Volatility:The stock price has experienced sharp rallies often driven by announcements (e.g., partnerships like Mercedes ) and significant declines following periods of limited news flow or disappointing financial results. Trading volume is substantial, averaging over 10 million shares daily in mid-2024.
- Market Capitalization:Reflecting the share price volatility and ongoing share issuance, the market capitalization has fluctuated significantly. It was cited as A$371M (A$405M fully diluted) in June 2024 , around A$437M in late 2024 , and approximately A$547M in April 2025. This places BrainChip among the smaller listed technology companies on the ASX.
The provided research materials do not contain specific consensus analyst ratings or price targets from major brokerage firms (e.g., AFR, Bloomberg, Reuters data was not included beyond general market info ). One independent research report included in the materials (Pitt Street Research, June 2024) assigned a speculative "fair valuation" of A$1.59 per share, based on industry M&A activity rather than traditional financial metrics, while acknowledging investor patience had been tested. Another source (Zacks Small-Cap Research, Nov 2022) provided analysis but did not specify a target price. InvestingPro data cited a "Fair Value" estimate range but this is typically model-driven rather than analyst consensus. The lack of broad, mainstream analyst coverage is typical for highly speculative, pre-revenue companies.
7.3. News Sentiment and Investor Communication
News flow is a critical driver of BrainChip's share price.
8. Risks and Challenges
- Positive Sentiment Drivers:Announcements of partnerships (Mercedes, Renesas, Frontgrade, AFRL), technology milestones (Akida 2.0, Akida Pico), product availability (M.2 modules, Edge AI Box), patent awards, and positive benchmarking results tend to generate positive sentiment and share price appreciation. The proposed US redomiciling was presented as a potential positive catalyst.
- Negative Sentiment Drivers:Quarterly reports revealing continued losses and minimal revenue, delays in commercialization or product rollouts (e.g., Akida 2.0 hardware), capital raisings and associated dilution, and periods of limited substantive news can negatively impact sentiment and the share price. Concerns about high executive remuneration relative to performance have also been raised by shareholders, although the company defends its policies as necessary to attract talent.
- Investor Communication:BrainChip actively communicates through ASX announcements, press releases, participation in industry events (CES, Embedded World) , and a regular investor podcast series featuring CEO updates and addressing shareholder questions. This proactive communication aims to keep investors informed and manage expectations, though the share price remains highly sensitive to the substance (or lack thereof) in these updates.
Investing in BrainChip involves significant risks inherent in early-stage technology companies operating in highly competitive markets.
9. Outlook and Market Capitalization Analysis (Next 12 Months)
- Technological Risks:
- Performance Shortfalls: Akida technology may not deliver the promised performance or power efficiency across the full range of target applications compared to competing solutions.
- Development Delays:Delays in the development, validation, and rollout of crucial next-generation products like Akida 2.0 hardware could allow competitors to gain an advantage.
- SNN Complexity:Spiking Neural Networks are less understood and utilized than traditional ANNs, potentially hindering adoption and requiring significant developer effort despite tools like MetaTF.
- Scalability Challenges: Scaling the technology to handle increasingly complex AI models while maintaining efficiency may pose unforeseen challenges.
- Market and Commercialization Risks:
- Slow Market Adoption:The market for neuromorphic computing may develop slower than anticipated, or customers may prefer established AI architectures.
- Failure to Secure Key Design Wins:Inability to convert pipeline opportunities and partnerships into high-volume commercial license agreements with significant royalty potential.
- Partner Execution Failure:Key licensees (Renesas, MegaChips, etc.) may face delays or fail to successfully bring their Akida-based products to market or achieve significant sales volumes.
- Competition:Intense competition from large semiconductor companies (Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD) and numerous AI hardware startups offering alternative edge AI solutions.
- Financial Risks:
- Ongoing Losses and Cash Burn:Continued operating losses require ongoing funding, depleting cash reserves.
- Funding Dependency:Reliance on external capital (e.g., LDA Capital facility, equity raises) makes the company vulnerable to market conditions and leads to shareholder dilution.
- Inability to Raise Capital: Difficulty securing future funding on acceptable terms could jeopardize operations.
- Lack of Profitability: No clear timeline to achieving profitability based on current revenue trajectory.
- Operational and Execution Risks:
- Manufacturing Scalability:Potential challenges in ensuring licensees can manufacture Akida-based SoCs reliably and cost-effectively at scale through foundry partners (TSMC, GlobalFoundries, IFS).
- Talent Acquisition and Retention:Difficulty attracting and retaining highly skilled engineers and sales personnel in competitive AI talent markets.
- US Redomiciling Execution:Risks associated with the complex process of redomiciling to the US and delisting from the ASX, including shareholder approval, regulatory hurdles, and market reception.
- Intellectual Property and Legal Risks:
- IP Infringement:Risk of competitors infringing on BrainChip's patents or unauthorized use of its IP.
- IP Challenges:Potential for third parties to challenge the validity or ownership of BrainChip's IP.
- Trade Secret Protection:Risk of trade secrets being compromised.
- Litigation:Potential for disputes related to contracts, IP, or other matters.
- Disclosure Risks:Balancing market disclosure obligations (especially under ASX rules) with the need to protect commercially sensitive information under NDAs with partners.
- General Economic and Market Risks: Broader economic downturns, changes in investor sentiment towards technology stocks, inflation, interest rate movements, and geopolitical instability can impact the company's valuation and access to capital. The ongoing effects of global events like the COVID-19 pandemic could also pose risks.
BrainChip Holdings stands at a critical juncture. The company possesses innovative neuromorphic technology, Akida, with compelling theoretical advantages for the burgeoning edge AI market, particularly in ultra-low-power applications. Its event-based processing and on-chip learning capabilities differentiate it from conventional AI hardware. High-profile partnerships and engagements provide validation of the technology's potential in demanding sectors like automotive (concept), space, and defense.
However, the path to commercial success remains fraught with significant challenges and uncertainties. The transition from technology development and evaluation to generating substantial, recurring revenue through its IP licensing model has proven slower and more difficult than perhaps initially anticipated. The lack of material royalty revenue from key early licensees is a major concern, raising questions about the timelines and commercial viability of partners' Akida-based products. While recent contract wins in defense and space are positive developments, they are unlikely to provide the high volumes needed to achieve profitability in the near term.
The company's success over the next 12 months, and beyond, hinges critically on execution across several fronts:
Market Capitalization Factors (Next 12 Months):
- Akida 2.0 Rollout:Timely delivery of Akida 2.0 silicon and successful adoption by lead customers are paramount. This generation's features (8-bit, ViT/TENN support) appear necessary to compete effectively in the advanced edge AI market. Further significant delays could severely impact competitiveness.
- Commercial Traction: Converting the existing pipeline and partnerships into significant, high-volume IP license agreements, particularly in target commercial markets like consumer electronics, industrial IoT, or potentially automotive production programs, is essential. News of substantial new license deals or, crucially, the commencement of royalty streams from existing licensees (especially Renesas or MegaChips) would be major positive catalysts.
- Financial Management: Continued access to funding is necessary given the ongoing cash burn. Successful execution of the LDA Capital facility drawdowns and potentially other capital raises will be required, although this will likely involve further dilution. Progress towards reducing cash burn through revenue growth or cost control is vital.
- US Redomiciling:If pursued, the successful execution of the proposed move to a US stock exchange could potentially broaden the investor base and improve access to capital but also involves significant execution risk and cost.
BrainChip's market capitalization (currently around A$550M ) reflects a high degree of speculation regarding its future success rather than current financial performance. Over the next 12 months, its valuation is likely to be driven primarily by:
Conclusion:
- News Flow: Announcements regarding new commercial partnerships, IP license agreements (especially with major semiconductor players or OEMs in high-volume markets), progress updates from existing licensees (e.g., Renesas product launch, royalty commencement), Akida 2.0 milestones (hardware availability, design wins), and significant contract awards (particularly beyond niche defense applications) will be key determinants. Positive news flow could drive significant upward momentum, while a lack of substantive progress could lead to further declines.
- Revenue Recognition: Any indication of meaningful revenue growth, particularly the start of royalty payments, would provide tangible validation of the business model and could significantly re-rate the stock. Conversely, continued minimal revenue will likely weigh heavily on valuation.
- Funding Activities: The terms and necessity of future capital raises, including drawdowns from the LDA facility, will influence market capitalization through dilution effects and signaling of financial health.
- Akida 2.0 Progress: Confirmation of AKD2000 hardware availability and initial customer adoption would be a critical milestone. Conversely, further delays would be a significant negative.
- Competitive Developments: Announcements or product launches from competitors (e.g., Intel's Loihi commercialization, advances in low-power conventional AI) could impact BrainChip's perceived competitive positioning.
- US Redomiciling Outcome: If the company proceeds, the success and market reception of the US listing process will be a major factor.
- Broader Market Sentiment: General sentiment towards AI, semiconductor stocks, and speculative growth companies will also influence BrainChip's valuation.
BrainChip Holdings presents a high-risk, potentially high-reward investment proposition. The Akida technology offers a genuinely innovative approach to AI processing at the edge, targeting critical needs for low power and on-device intelligence. The alignment with the large and rapidly growing Edge AI market is clear. However, the company faces formidable challenges in commercial execution, competition from established giants, and managing its financial resources.
Success is far from guaranteed and depends heavily on management's ability to convert technological promise and partnership potential into tangible, significant revenue streams in the relatively near future. The next 12 months are likely to be pivotal, with progress on Akida 2.0, securing major commercial design wins leading to royalties, and navigating the funding landscape being critical determinants of the company's trajectory and market valuation. Investors must weigh the substantial potential market opportunity against the significant execution risks and the company's current financial fragility. Predicting the market capitalization remains inherently uncertain and highly dependent on the successful achievement of key commercial and technological milestones.
Sources used in the report
Almost took that tues morning flight but was worried about delays etc so took the night before and staying a few days. Your home flight not until late so plenty of time for an Irish coffee (or beer) in SydneyAnyone flying from Brisbane or at Sydney airport at the same time that would like to catch up for a coffee on Tuesday for the AGM? View attachment 83283
This Tiny Low Power AI Chip Runs LLMs Without Wi-Fi! (guess who they are)
Very little effort required on my partThanks for posting. Most everything I skimmed and read I already generally knew. So I didn't find the response enlightening or revealing. No dis or slight meant toward you Five Bucks. I appreciate your effort.
However, I did come away with a question I would love for you to ask Gemini next. "Hello, please tell me how much electricity was consumed generating the massive answer and, or, how much coal was burned generating the response just given, and finally how much CO2 was released into the atmosphere as a result? "
Now THAT would be interesting,.....at least to me. We know the inquiries cost money and resources but do we know how much?
Regards, dippY
Hi dippY,Thanks for posting. Most everything I skimmed and read I already generally knew. So I didn't find the response enlightening or revealing. No dis or slight meant toward you Five Bucks. I appreciate your effort.
However, I did come away with a question I would love for you to ask Gemini next. "Hello, please tell me how much electricity was consumed generating the massive answer and, or, how much coal was burned generating the response just given, and finally how much CO2 was released into the atmosphere as a result? "
Now THAT would be interesting,.....at least to me. We know the inquiries cost money and resources but do we know how much?
Regards, dippY
Hopefully everyone will be going somewhere for a beer lunchAlmost took that tues morning flight but was worried about delays etc so took the night before and staying a few days. Your home flight not until late so plenty of time for an Irish coffee (or beer) in SydneySafe flight tuesday. You never know Dolci might be on your flight..
Fair to say we will get pummeled on open today.