BRN Discussion Ongoing

[skutza]

I don't really buy stocks for short term, so not sure if this is classified as trading or not. I bought a good chunk at the auction today, plan on selling them hoping for a Santa rally. So is holding for 2 months trading? Leave my main bundle alone. What's the bet I just think in a few months, F*$k it, I'll just keep them

 

[Cardpro]

If these deals where already penciled in between customers and Brainchip, then the surrounding economic factors are unlikely to affect them. It is highly unlikely that tech giants (Fortune 500, etc.) would change their strategic plan based on a war in Ukraine, or high (as expected following COVID) inflation figures.

Tech is a race, and it always has been - to use Samsung and Apple as an example, Apple has a plan to release an iPhone in two years, as would Samsung with the Galaxy. Each of these companies are testing, signing, making deals with whomever suppliers to implement into these future offerings. If they terminate a deal that is required to develop these products in a effort to reduce expenditure in the short-term, they pay for that exponentially in the long-term. Say Apple puts a deal on hold and Samsung decides to push ahead - then when two companies each release their respective product, the better one will gain more market share. Besides, for the most part payment for these suppliers (Brainchip in this case) is made as the company releases their products into the wild - (e.g., in two years time), so by tis logic, these deals have already been signed (perhaps under the umbrella for an existing material customer), and the payment/revenue to Brainchip is due on X,Y,Z. This is especially true in a world where tech innovation has plateaued, I mean how impressive are new phone (as an example) releases over their predecessors?

Obviously this is a dream scenario (Apple and Samsung), but the principal remains consistent with tech companies of all valuations. Its a brutal industry - dog eat dog - survival of the fittest. Evident if we cast our eyes back over the years when considering companies like Nokia, Compaq, Blackberry, even Blockbuster... They failed to innovate, and they failed as a company. These lessons have already been learnt, and big tech knows this. This is why Intel is pumping $billions into SNN research - its failed to innovate over recent years, and now it needs to make up ground.

The other indicator for me is Sean Hehir, our own CEO. A seasoned Silicon Valley executive who obviously understands business and big tech. During an interview with Tom Piotrowski (Commsec), this May, he stated, and I quote, "I look forward to standing in front of you next year, and talking about results". I for one did not take that statement lightly, and I'm pretty sure that Sean wouldn't have said it unless he was absolutely certain that he (they) would be successful in delivering - free markets have a nose for bullshit, and a failure to deliver would be career suicide, especially for a new CEO, regardless of surrounding economic factors (especially true given he made that statement during COVID and an already fractured market).

Peter has said it, Sean has said it, the company has a market ready product - explosive growth is what I expect.

For us to have the explosive growth, don't we need multiple announcements on licensing agreements?
Is there any chance that the license ageeement is not being announced to the market as it is considered as "trade secret"? (I dont think its realistic to say they will alm flow through MegaChips / Renesas)

 

[krugerrands]

The problem is, all the "reported" figures need to be taken with, not only a grain of salt, but a generous shaking of the container..

But we need some kind of gauge..

They know we monitor the figures and if any psychological edge, can be attained by skewing them, would they?

They need only "report", "not report" or report fictional figures, as they see fit.
Who's going to stop them?
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC)?

That bunch of gutless, hand under the table, pen pushers?

As long as some are doing the right thing and reporting their stupid bets against us, which is evidenced by the overall "strengthening" short position, I'm happy

Haha.... yes, a generous helping indeed.

The net position is the best gauge we have unfortunately.

Mostly unrelated but opening and closing prices is to me a somewhat arbitrary indicator that doesn't deserve the attention it receives.
Just like PE ratio's which is a trailing indicator based on accounting figures and the share price.... cyclical reference much?
It should all be about forward looking revenue potential.... I digress.

VWAP prices is more relevant and usefull and much harder to manipulate.

For example.
On the 4th we where on ~113M net shorts.
Last time we were on ~113M net shorts was 19/09.

Somewhere inbetween the shorts rised to ~117m.

The highest price it could have been sold for was 93c and the lowest cover 82c.
But the VWAP price would not be at the high / low and would be closer to the actual buy / sell prices achieved.

Date	Reported Short	High Price	Low Price	Closing Price	Trading Volume
04/10/2022	113,784,258	0.90	0.86	0.89	8,002,430
19/09/2022	112,708,576	0.93	0.88	0.88	9,100,937

The juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze.

 

[DingoBorat]

From the Prophesee link you provided.

Event-Based Vision Evaluation Kits | PROPHESEE

PROPHESEE’S Evaluation Kits are flexible USB vision systems or event cameras that allow for experimenting with the power of Event-Based Vision.

www.prophesee.ai

"Evaluation Kits are your perfect gateway to Event-Based Vision.

They feature the most technologically advanced sensors available to date with the only mass-produced mini-pbga package Event-Based Vision sensor (GEN3.1 – VGA) and the breakthrough stacked HD sensor realized in collaboration between Sony and Prophesee (IMX636ES)"

The party's already begun

Do you think the April evaluation kits, date us out of this iteration @chapman89?

Didn't you confirm we'd been dealing with Prophesee since last year?..

 

[Fullmoonfever]

Hmmm so with Prophesee.... Xiaomi is one of their investors. Xiaomi being a Chinese smart phone manufacturer. You can bet that this phone in the future will have a blur free camera thanks to Prophesee and their missing link Akida! So where does that leave us. A giant phone market industry with our IP but in a country that there are the occassional concerns about! Russia being banned from selling most international phones do still sell Chinese phones... So does this also mean that Akida IP flooding Russia.

When an owner of Prophesee (Xiaomi) wants to get a competitive advantage it will get messy perhaps.

Like it's great to get the royalties but i forsee this will become a hurdle for Prophesee sooner rather than later.

We get coverage in Russia already anyway

TAdviser - The largest portal in Russia on the topic of corporate informatization
TAdviser.com is the English version of the publication. The first mass media in Russia working on machine translation technologies.
Leading organizer of events on corporate informatization topics
Analytical studies
Polls
Organization of conferences
Development and modernization of Internet sites
Content content and site maintenance
Corporate publications
Booklets, brochures

 

[Earlyrelease]

Perth Chippers.
My contribution mostly to this forum is as social director and as such the time has come for the Perth crew to have a wee drop to celebrate the upcoming festivities and hopefully postulate over the 4c and work out where the revenue came from. So as a save the date please keep Friday evening 25 November free from 4-7pm. I do realise, that is the end of schoolies weeks but I am confident that doesn’t apply to our cohort. I think safely we don’t have any schoolies or toolies but we could be in the age group of droolies. Anyway more to follow closer to the date. PM me if interested so I can add you to last times list.

 

[Fact Finder]

Hmmm so with Prophesee.... Xiaomi is one of their investors. Xiaomi being a Chinese smart phone manufacturer. You can bet that this phone in the future will have a blur free camera thanks to Prophesee and their missing link Akida! So where does that leave us. A giant phone market industry with our IP but in a country that there are the occassional concerns about! Russia being banned from selling most international phones do still sell Chinese phones... So does this also mean that Akida IP flooding Russia.

When an owner of Prophesee (Xiaomi) wants to get a competitive advantage it will get messy perhaps.

Like it's great to get the royalties but i forsee this will become a hurdle for Prophesee sooner rather than later.

The solution might be found by Prophesee being a French company. President Macron and his political opponent should the leadership of France change in the future are both much more relaxed about Russia and China than the USA.

The issue for Brainchip will only become real if they were to deal directly with Xiaomi but if they licence the IP to Prophesee and then Prophesee deal with Xiaomi it would probably survive scruitiny.

Now if Puto drops a couple of atomic bombs France might decide to revise their politics and it will then depend on how China react as to whether France will step back from China as well.

Anyway hopefully for everyone’s sake the nuclear option is taken off the table.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

 

[DingoBorat]

I don't really buy stocks for short term, so not sure if this is classified as trading or not. I bought a good chunk at the auction today, plan on selling them hoping for a Santa rally. So is holding for 2 months trading? Leave my main bundle alone. What's the bet I just think in a few months, F*$k it, I'll just keep them

It's trading Skutza and there's absolutely nothing at all wrong with it.

But you're smart and also have a core holding

I wish I had a trading parcel, but I don't have any shares, that I can risk losing at these prices..
And can't afford to buy more, at the moment..

My plan is to trade some, once we are $2.50 and above, to settle some debts and become debt free, with as little of my holdings as possible.

The future is so big for BrainChip, that unless you're increasing your holdings by selling, or trading, I believe you will have enormous regrets, in the future.

My opinions only.

 

[David holland]

Haha.... yes, a generous helping indeed.

The net position is the best gauge we have unfortunately.

Mostly unrelated but opening and closing prices is to me a somewhat arbitrary indicator that doesn't deserve the attention it receives.
Just like PE ratio's which is a trailing indicator based on accounting figures and the share price.... cyclical reference much?
It should all be about forward looking revenue potential.... I digress.

VWAP prices is more relevant and usefull and much harder to manipulate.

For example.
On the 4th we where on ~113M net shorts.
Last time we were on ~113M net shorts was 19/09.

Somewhere inbetween the short rised to ~117m.

The highest price is could have been sold for was 93c and the lowest cover 82c.
But the VWAP price would not be at the high / low and would be closer to the actual buy / sell prices achieved.

Date	Reported Short	High Price	Low Price	Closing Price	Trading Volume
04/10/2022	113,784,258	0.90	0.86	0.89	8,002,430
19/09/2022	112,708,576	0.93	0.88	0.88	9,100,937

The juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze.

Only 1 way you can buy shares,
Identify a beauty like Brainchip and get in at a low price ,let's say 10 to 20k purchased, then purchase another 10k at the same price,
With this 10k you buy sell buy sell its the only the way, sell on the up and buy when it's been shorted, buy again on the up then so on and so , in the last 8 months the share price goes up 10% then down 17 %, this is the way to go

 

[David holland]

That's a well thought out post.

Excellent stuff! Many shareholders would clearly understand the merit in what you have mentioned.

About 13 business days left until our 4C fronts up to deliver what we all hope for, that is, steady as she goes, any revenue close to the last quarter will be a good sign, any increase would be fantastic, anyone interested in a game of two-up

We could announce a 50 million dollar ticket in revenue, but this share is shorted to the Max

 

[alwaysgreen]

It's trading Skutza and there's absolutely nothing at all wrong with it.

But you're smart and also have a core holding

I wish I had a trading parcel, but I don't have any shares, that I can risk losing at these prices..
And can't afford to buy more, at the moment..

My plan is to trade some, once we are $2.50 and above, to settle some debts and become debt free, with as little of my holdings as possible.

The future is so big for BrainChip, that unless you're increasing your holdings by selling, or trading, I believe you will have enormous regrets, in the future.

My opinions only.

Realistically, where do you think we will end up revenue wise?

Arm, for example, also only sell IP. Last quarter they sat at around, let's call it $1billion AUD in revenue $700mill USD).

My hope is that BRN can do around $400 million revenue annually, so $100 mill per quarter.

Trading at a PE ratio of 20, that would have us at an $8 billion dollar market cap. PE ratio of 30 sounds much more attractive. I'm hoping we can achieve this in 3 or 4 years based on the explosive growth forecasts from our leadership team.

What are everyone's hopes or targets here? In terms of predicted revenue, market caps/share prices and time frame to get there.

 

[DingoBorat]

This is really interesting, from the Prophesee website on Event Based Vision.

What is Event-based Vision? | PROPHESEE

Event-based vision functions like the eye and the brain to overcome inherent limitations of conventional machine vision.

www.prophesee.ai

The human eye shares little with a conventional video camera.
Since their inception 150 years ago, all conventional video tools have represented motion by capturing a number of still frames each second. Displayed rapidly, such images create an illusion of continuous movement. From the flip book to the movie camera, the illusion became more convincing but its basic structure never changed.

For a computer, this representation of motion is of little use. The camera is blind between each frame, losing information on moving objects. Even when the camera is recording, each of its “snapshot” images contains no information about the motion of elements in the scene. Worse still, within each image, the same irrelevant background objects are repeatedly recorded, generating excessive unhelpful data.

It really makes you realise how much the "old camera" tech handicaps modern technology and how revolutionary and paradigm shifting Event Based cameras really are..

Our complex brains, smooth out the jittery "motion capture" and add in any missing information, make assessments of the situation etc, from experience.
Imagine the complexity of software, for an "artificial" application, to make sense of it?

This is not just some "niche" market..

I might even listen to the Prophesee podcast tonight ..

 

[Cyw]

I have a question for all my learned friends here:
Brainchip had said they would not be mass producing chips unless ordered by customers. Instead they would like to sell their IP to chip designers to incorporate the functionality of AKIDA into their own chips and get some licence fees up front and perhaps royalties when the customer sells its products containing the AKIDA IP.

Does anybody know if there are companies out there already using this business model or is it a new thing invented by Brainchip?

 

[Fact Finder]

A couple of days ago there was a discussion about whether AKIDA could replace GPU's in automotive applications. The following article covers a number of issues some of which are now redundant as Brainchip has fully embraced the model of being an IP seller and does not intend to supply chips going forward although after the recent presentation by Doug Fairburn of MegaChips it sounds as if they may be intending to step in and become an AKIDA chip provider in the not too distant future. ​

Anyway my primary reason for posting this article is to be found in the purple and read print at the end of the article.​

My opinion only DYOR​

FF​

AKIDA BALLISTA ​

​

Akida spiking neural processor could head to FDSOI​

Technology News | August 2, 2021
By Peter Clarke
MPUS/MCUSAUTHENTICATION & ENCRYPTIONEDA & CAD TOOLSSENSING / CONDITIONINGDEVELOPMENT KITS

---

BrainChip is starting to deliver its Akida1000 system chip to customers although the company insists that is main business model is intellectual property licensing, similar to ARM’sThe Akida1000 contains 80 neural processors and is implemented in 28nm CMOS (see Brainchip’s Akida is a fast learner) and Brainchip announced the start of volume production in April 2021. This was shortly after Louis DiNardo quietly left the position of CEO in March. Peter van der Made, the founder of Brainchip and previously CTO, has taken up the CEO role.

Anil Mankar, chief development officer, told eeNews Europe: “Chip production volume is just starting now. But you will see a lot of IP licensing going forward.” He added: “We are process agnostic.”
The near-term focus is supplying the Akida IP to 22nm although some customers may go back to 90nm process, Akida executives said.
Rob Telson, vice president of worldwide sales, said BrainChip is drawing up plans for smaller and larger versions of Akida under the names Akida500, Akida1500 and Akida2000. Some of these may well comply to a new generation of the Akida architecture – Akida 2.0 – due to arrive in 2022. It is thought Akida500 could be implemented in 22nm FDSOI manufacturing process, and serve as a demonstrator of the agnostic nature of the Akida architecture.

Mankar emphasizes that the Akida architecture can implement both conventional convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and spiking neural networks (SNNs) that allow for a broader range of data processing models and learnings. The human brain based on spiking signals passed between neurons. “Spikes are spatio-temporal. There’s a lot of information to extract from spikes that we are not yet taking advantage of,” said Mankar.
The scalability of the architecture is also important, he said. “Our IP can from 2 processing nodes to 128,” said Mankar. If a licensee goes to 7nm CMOS then they can go to many nodes, he added.
Next: Free development tools

---

The MetaTF software development tools are free and allow users to investigate what Akida can do for their application, how many processing nodes they need. For some customers Akida is prepared to supply boards with the Akida1000 silicon and provide help customizing the network. Others will want to license and optimize their own chip.
One of the application areas of interest is automotive where Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) to train an increasing number of sensors, components, image and video processors in each vehicle. Autonomous vehicles and near-autonomous vehicles are predicted to generate between 12 and 15 terabytes of data for every two hours of driving.
Latency, power consumption and privacy are the key reasons not to send this data to the cloud for processing.
One advantage of spiking neural network architectures is the ability to perform
real-time incremental learning, sometimes called one-shot learning, within a fraction of a second. The ability to add voice commands, accept individuals as drivers by facial recognition and to flag events as significant or not in sensors is improved when using Akida, said BrainChip executives. “We are being benchmarked against deep learning accelerators and a GPU vendor and it is coming back favourably to us.”

Akida spiking neural processor could head to FDSOI

Startup BrainChip Inc. has a road-map of larger and smaller SoC exemplars of its Akida spiking neural networking processing architecture and could go to fully-depleted silicon on insulator (FDSOI).

www.eenewsanalog.com

 

[Mt09]

I have a question for all my learned friends here:
Brainchip had said they would not be mass producing chips unless ordered by customers. Instead they would like to sell their IP to chip designers to incorporate the functionality of AKIDA into their own chips and get some licence fees up front and perhaps royalties when the customer sells its products containing the AKIDA IP.

Does anybody know if there are companies out there already using this business model or is it a new thing invented by Brainchip?

Have you heard of a little company called ARM?

 

[DingoBorat]

Realistically, where do you think we will end up revenue wise?

Arm, for example, also only sell IP. Last quarter they sat at around, let's call it $1billion AUD in revenue $700mill USD).

My hope is that BRN can do around $400 million revenue annually, so $100 mill per quarter.

Trading at a PE ratio of 20, that would have us at an $8 billion dollar market cap. PE ratio of 30 sounds much more attractive. I'm hoping we can achieve this in 3 or 4 years based on the explosive growth forecasts from our leadership team.

What are everyone's hopes or targets here? In terms of predicted revenue, market caps/share prices and time frame to get there.

Realistically, where do you think we will end up revenue wise?

That's too much of an open ended question, for me to even attempt to answer AlwaysGreen

But anyway..

"Realistically" "end up"..

Over what time frame?
You say 3 to 4 years, but is that where you think growth will stop?

Our partners are growing, MegaChips has shown huge growth in income (June 2022 net income up 58.39%).
Is that because of us? Don't know..
But their push into the US Edge markets, is on the back's of BrainChip's and Quadric's (complementary) A.I. offerings.

Do you see us reaching a particular revenue level and plateauing?

I can't see that happening, for a lonngg time, if the Company achieves its continually evolving objectives.

It's all dependent on how much market traction our customers get, which is impossible to gauge at this point, we'll have a better idea, in a couple of years.

We may trade at larger than usual PE ratios (as we obviously are now) well into the future, ignoring all other contributing factors that are too many to even speculate about..

BrainChip has the potential (dirty word) to be a Massive Growth Company, so I don't think "normal" PE ratios will apply.

As far as price targets $30 to $100 per share, in from 7 to 10 years from now, is possible if we are on the right horse, with or without share splits and true Global demand for stock.

But medium term, up from here

 

[DingoBorat]

I have a question for all my learned friends here:
Brainchip had said they would not be mass producing chips unless ordered by customers. Instead they would like to sell their IP to chip designers to incorporate the functionality of AKIDA into their own chips and get some licence fees up front and perhaps royalties when the customer sells its products containing the AKIDA IP.

Does anybody know if there are companies out there already using this business model or is it a new thing invented by Brainchip?

Hey Cyw, you seem to have doubts about our business model, because we don't seem to be actually really "selling" anything..

Also the Company changed tact a bit after Sean Hehir's engagement and we no longer have any interest or intention, to mass produce chips at all.

There is no "perhaps" in regards to receiving royalties, in produced products containing AKIDA IP (not sure if that was uncertainty to receive, or the customer to produce products).

I was extremely happy, when the Company announced that they had decided purely on an IP and Royalties business model (modeled after ARM's).

Our only overheads, will be staff and associated costs!

That includes Management, Sales and Research.

Our business model, is like owning a gold mine, where we've discovered the resource and continue to develop it (but with nothing like the costs of drilling to continually expand it).

Our gold resources team, "dream up" extra reserves.

Someone else, our customers, do the actual mining and refining of the ore (product development) and give us a cut of the gold (end product sales).

Anyone not grasping how good this business model really is, is really missing a big part of what makes this Company so attractive!

No other Edge A.I. Company, to my knowledge, without regard to our other technological advantages (one shot/incremental learning etc) has the convenience and cost advantage of IP inclusion into a customer's chip design that we offer.

Which spells competive advantage.

 

[Hrdwk]

Any thoughts on AWS Monitron? AWS Monitron
I was in a meeting with AWS and they said these devices have a battery life of 5 years.

I did a quick google search to include SNN, not much came back except one Korean link to a domain that appears to be down. The snippet from the search result translated to:
Now use Amazon Monitron to quickly revamp assets with sensors and make them AWS... The individual data interfaces of multiple data interfaces are SNN's synaptic.

 

[JK200SX]

Realistically, where do you think we will end up revenue wise?

That's too much of an open ended question, for me to even attempt to answer AlwaysGreen

But anyway..

"Realistically" "end up"..

Over what time frame?
You say 3 to 4 years, but is that where you think growth will stop?

Our partners are growing, MegaChips has shown huge growth in income (June 2022 net income up 58.39%).
Is that because of us? Don't know..
But their push into the US Edge markets, is on the back's of BrainChip's and Quadric's (complementary) A.I. offerings.

Do you see us reaching a particular revenue level and plateauing?

I can't see that happening, for a lonngg time, if the Company achieves its continually evolving objectives.

It's all dependent on how much market traction our customers get, which is impossible to gauge at this point, we'll have a better idea, in a couple of years.

We may trade at larger than usual PE ratios (as we obviously are now) well into the future, ignoring all other contributing factors that are too many to even speculate about..

BrainChip has the potential (dirty word) to be a Massive Growth Company, so I don't think "normal" PE ratios will apply.

As far as price targets $30 to $100 per share, in from 7 to 10 years from now, is possible if we are on the right horse, with or without share splits and true Global demand for stock.

But medium term, up from here

"..... $30 to $100 per share, in from 7 to 10 years from now ..."

As the great man says at least once a month, ".... now this is what really gets me excited....."
I better go figure out what super hero I'm gonna have to be.....

 

[Earlyrelease]

Hey Cyw, you seem to have doubts about our business model, because we don't seem to be actually really "selling" anything..

Also the Company changed tact a bit after Sean Hehir's engagement and we no longer have any interest or intention, to mass produce chips at all.

There is no "perhaps" in regards to receiving royalties, in produced products containing AKIDA IP (not sure if that was uncertainty to receive, or the customer to produce products).

I was extremely happy, when the Company announced that they had decided purely on an IP and Royalties business model (modeled after ARM's).

Our only overheads, will be staff and associated costs!

That includes Management, Sales and Research.

Our business model, is like owning a gold mine, where we've discovered the resource and continue to develop it (but with nothing like the costs of drilling to continually expand it).

Our gold resources team, "dream up" extra reserves.

Someone else, our customers, do the actual mining and refining of the ore (product development) and give us a cut of the gold (end product sales).

Anyone not grasping how good this business model really is, is really missing a big part of what makes this Company so attractive!

No other Edge A.I. Company, to my knowledge, without regard to our other technological advantages (one shot/incremental learning etc) has the convenience and cost advantage of IP inclusion into a customer's chip design that we offer.

Which spells competive advantage.

DB
Another way to put what you elegantly stated is:
We are the equivalent of Uber to the taxi industry. We provide the similar service but we just own the ideas ( the platform to book) whiles other drive the Ubers, service the vehicles and try get more business by either having multiple ride share apps or have a regular loyal set of customers.

So when petrol prices rise it doesn’t have the same effect as the poor old driver.