BRICK
Where’s Zeebot 😶🌫️
Jeeze you fuck one goat......
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
The latest:
Kobold sign some papers, agree on a path forward.
Kobold low-balls Nige, the answer is no.
Kobold go back and offer a few cents more, Nige says no.
Another US company enters the chat, they fly Nige over to the US.
They low ball Nige again, however this time it's substantially more than Kobold, Nige says no again.
Rio enters the chat, they get on the blower to Kobold, they come up with a plan which no one is privy to nor knows the way forward/price, etc and that's where we're at.
Aug 21 will be interesting..
Kobold sign some papers, agree on a path forward.
Kobold low-balls Nige, the answer is no.
Kobold go back and offer a few cents more, Nige says no.
Another US company enters the chat, they fly Nige over to the US.
They low ball Nige again, however this time it's substantially more than Kobold, Nige says no again.
Rio enters the chat, they get on the blower to Kobold, they come up with a plan which no one is privy to nor knows the way forward/price, etc and that's where we're at.
Aug 21 will be interesting..
Mute22
Regular
Maybe that is again JUST SEPCULATION and HEARSAY, if not where did you get such way out info
Today's top crapper, The Avenger:
Valuing a mining business demands comprehensive assessment that includes multiple critical factors and using the usual 6 point takeover valuation the following marked YES apply to AVZ Manono project-
1. Value reserves and resources.
YES
2. Evaluate operational performance.
NO
3. Analyse financial performance.
NO
4. Conduct market analysis.
YES
5. Project future cash flows.
YES
6. Risk assessments.
YES
CURRENT RESRVES
The key one for Manono is point 1 (Reserves and resources) and Manono sports an almost biblical-scale resource of
- 842 million tonnes going an impressive 1.61 per cent lithium oxide, 709 parts per million tin and 37ppm tantalum and contains 13.52 million tonnes of lithium oxide.
According to the DFS-
13.52m tonne lithium oxide at forecasted DFS equates to $20.280b
597.4 thousand tonnes.tin at forecasted DFS equates to $14.295b
Total reserve valuation based on 842m tonnes of ore is base approx. $34.5b
We should command minimum 40% of the value of $34.5b which means around $13.4b and base price of $3.96. This doesn't even include the potential growth (point 5 above) lift in tonnage from 842m to 2b.
Sorry KoBold as a standalone or KoBold as a JV with RIO please understand GIVE US THE RIGHT PRICE or know that AVZ is gathering its forces well and now has a grab bag of favourable court rulings in its slingshot as it prepares for what will no doubt be an epic final episode that just might see the world’s biggest lithium deposit catapulted into production by AVZ – and who knows, maybe it will coincide perfectly with the inevitable third lithium boom...by all the recent passionate and in many cases from the trolls illogical posts, looks like the heart palps are back...hahahaha
Valuing a mining business demands comprehensive assessment that includes multiple critical factors and using the usual 6 point takeover valuation the following marked YES apply to AVZ Manono project-
1. Value reserves and resources.
YES
2. Evaluate operational performance.
NO
3. Analyse financial performance.
NO
4. Conduct market analysis.
YES
5. Project future cash flows.
YES
6. Risk assessments.
YES
CURRENT RESRVES
The key one for Manono is point 1 (Reserves and resources) and Manono sports an almost biblical-scale resource of
- 842 million tonnes going an impressive 1.61 per cent lithium oxide, 709 parts per million tin and 37ppm tantalum and contains 13.52 million tonnes of lithium oxide.
According to the DFS-
13.52m tonne lithium oxide at forecasted DFS equates to $20.280b
597.4 thousand tonnes.tin at forecasted DFS equates to $14.295b
Total reserve valuation based on 842m tonnes of ore is base approx. $34.5b
We should command minimum 40% of the value of $34.5b which means around $13.4b and base price of $3.96. This doesn't even include the potential growth (point 5 above) lift in tonnage from 842m to 2b.
Sorry KoBold as a standalone or KoBold as a JV with RIO please understand GIVE US THE RIGHT PRICE or know that AVZ is gathering its forces well and now has a grab bag of favourable court rulings in its slingshot as it prepares for what will no doubt be an epic final episode that just might see the world’s biggest lithium deposit catapulted into production by AVZ – and who knows, maybe it will coincide perfectly with the inevitable third lithium boom...by all the recent passionate and in many cases from the trolls illogical posts, looks like the heart palps are back...hahahaha
Tinrattler
Member
The nazi chads would have something to say about that
A couple go out for a round of golf. They hop in their cart and take off down the first hole. After finishing up on the green they get back in the cart and drive up to the second tee. As they get out and walk up to the tee a ball comes through the trees and hits the woman in the head. She’s knocked out and falls to the ground. The husband runs to her side, gently taps her hand and tries to bring her back. No success. Frantic now he jumps back into the cart and takes off for the clubhouse. He gets out and calls out to the group of men sitting up on the verandah ‘is there a doctor up there, my wife has been hit by a golf ball’. A man stands up and says ‘I’m a doctor, where was your wife hit?’. The man says ‘between the first and second holes’. The doctor says ‘well that won’t leave much room for a bandage’.
Why a Sale of AVZ’s Interest Could Exceed $3: Strategic Lithium, Superpower Competition, and Market Influence
The potential sale or buyout of AVZ Minerals' interest in the Manono Lithium and Tin Project could fetch well above $3 per share, and not simply due to the underlying resource size—but because of its geopolitical and economic leverage in the context of global lithium supply. Several converging factors point to a scenario where bidding pressure and strategic motivations could drive a premium sale valuation well beyond what traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models would suggest.
1. Strategic Asset in the U.S.–China Lithium Arms Race
Control over the Manono deposit represents more than ownership of a mine—it signifies influence over one of the largest undeveloped hard-rock lithium deposits on Earth. In a world increasingly split between Western and Chinese supply chains, whoever controls Manono gains long-term leverage over:
2. Geopolitical Premium on Ownership
The Manono deposit is not just a resource; it's a strategic lever.
If AVZ were to sell its controlling interest to a U.S.-aligned buyer, the DRC could eliminate Chinese control over a globally strategic deposit, shifting long-term supply dynamics toward the West. Such a deal may be viewed by buyers not just in terms of profitability, but strategic denial—i.e., keeping China out of the asset. In this environment, willingness to pay is based on geopolitical utility, not just cash flow.
This "strategic premium" could easily push the transaction value well above traditional fair market value—possibly translating to a per-share price north of $3 for AVZ shareholders, especially under competitive bidding conditions between Chinese and U.S.-aligned entities.
3. Lithium Spot Market Influence: OPEC-Like Dynamics Emerging
Control of Manono also carries implications for the global lithium spot market, which remains volatile and supply-sensitive. While the lithium market is not yet cartelized, the influence of large, centralized producers is growing—mirroring early-stage dynamics seen in oil markets decades ago.
A single party with long-term offtake control over Manono could:
If AVZ is the gatekeeper to that influence—even if only for a limited equity stake—the negotiation value of its interest increases significantly.
4. Scarcity and First-Mover Advantage
Very few projects globally offer:
Final Thought
While speculative, the case for a sale price exceeding $3 per share for AVZ is credible when viewed through a geopolitical and strategic lens, rather than just pure project economics. The intersection of:
Disclaimer:
This is not financial or investment advice. It is a opinion only and subject to error. You should always do your own research, consider your personal risk profile, and consult a qualified adviser before making any investment decisions. The lithium sector, while promising, is highly speculative and politically complex.
The potential sale or buyout of AVZ Minerals' interest in the Manono Lithium and Tin Project could fetch well above $3 per share, and not simply due to the underlying resource size—but because of its geopolitical and economic leverage in the context of global lithium supply. Several converging factors point to a scenario where bidding pressure and strategic motivations could drive a premium sale valuation well beyond what traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models would suggest.
1. Strategic Asset in the U.S.–China Lithium Arms Race
Control over the Manono deposit represents more than ownership of a mine—it signifies influence over one of the largest undeveloped hard-rock lithium deposits on Earth. In a world increasingly split between Western and Chinese supply chains, whoever controls Manono gains long-term leverage over:
- Battery supply chains, particularly for EVs and energy storage;
- Pricing power in global lithium markets;
- Political capital in green energy policy and strategic mineral diplomacy.
2. Geopolitical Premium on Ownership
The Manono deposit is not just a resource; it's a strategic lever.
If AVZ were to sell its controlling interest to a U.S.-aligned buyer, the DRC could eliminate Chinese control over a globally strategic deposit, shifting long-term supply dynamics toward the West. Such a deal may be viewed by buyers not just in terms of profitability, but strategic denial—i.e., keeping China out of the asset. In this environment, willingness to pay is based on geopolitical utility, not just cash flow.
This "strategic premium" could easily push the transaction value well above traditional fair market value—possibly translating to a per-share price north of $3 for AVZ shareholders, especially under competitive bidding conditions between Chinese and U.S.-aligned entities.
3. Lithium Spot Market Influence: OPEC-Like Dynamics Emerging
Control of Manono also carries implications for the global lithium spot market, which remains volatile and supply-sensitive. While the lithium market is not yet cartelized, the influence of large, centralized producers is growing—mirroring early-stage dynamics seen in oil markets decades ago.
A single party with long-term offtake control over Manono could:
- Throttle or accelerate supply to manage price dynamics;
- Influence contract negotiations with downstream battery producers;
- Establish strategic reserves or price floors through coordinated supply action.
If AVZ is the gatekeeper to that influence—even if only for a limited equity stake—the negotiation value of its interest increases significantly.
4. Scarcity and First-Mover Advantage
Very few projects globally offer:
- Over 800 million tonnes of lithium-bearing ore;
- High grades of 1.6–1.7% Li₂O;
- An advanced permitting and feasibility position;
- And now, improving security and political support (via peace deals and U.S. alignment).
Final Thought
While speculative, the case for a sale price exceeding $3 per share for AVZ is credible when viewed through a geopolitical and strategic lens, rather than just pure project economics. The intersection of:
- A world-class lithium deposit;
- Great power competition between the U.S. and China;
- The potential to shape global lithium pricing;
- And DRC’s newfound incentive to align with Western interests...
Disclaimer:This is not financial or investment advice. It is a opinion only and subject to error. You should always do your own research, consider your personal risk profile, and consult a qualified adviser before making any investment decisions. The lithium sector, while promising, is highly speculative and politically complex.
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