AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
A couple go out for a round of golf. They hop in their cart and take off down the first hole. After finishing up on the green they get back in the cart and drive up to the second tee. As they get out and walk up to the tee a ball comes through the trees and hits the woman in the head. She’s knocked out and falls to the ground. The husband runs to her side, gently taps her hand and tries to bring her back. No success. Frantic now he jumps back into the cart and takes off for the clubhouse. He gets out and calls out to the group of men sitting up on the verandah ‘is there a doctor up there, my wife has been hit by a golf ball’. A man stands up and says ‘I’m a doctor, where was your wife hit?’. The man says ‘between the first and second holes’. The doctor says ‘well that won’t leave much room for a bandage’.
Why a Sale of AVZ’s Interest Could Exceed $3: Strategic Lithium, Superpower Competition, and Market Influence
The potential sale or buyout of AVZ Minerals' interest in the Manono Lithium and Tin Project could fetch well above $3 per share, and not simply due to the underlying resource size—but because of its geopolitical and economic leverage in the context of global lithium supply. Several converging factors point to a scenario where bidding pressure and strategic motivations could drive a premium sale valuation well beyond what traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models would suggest.
1. Strategic Asset in the U.S.–China Lithium Arms Race
Control over the Manono deposit represents more than ownership of a mine—it signifies influence over one of the largest undeveloped hard-rock lithium deposits on Earth. In a world increasingly split between Western and Chinese supply chains, whoever controls Manono gains long-term leverage over:
2. Geopolitical Premium on Ownership
The Manono deposit is not just a resource; it's a strategic lever.
If AVZ were to sell its controlling interest to a U.S.-aligned buyer, the DRC could eliminate Chinese control over a globally strategic deposit, shifting long-term supply dynamics toward the West. Such a deal may be viewed by buyers not just in terms of profitability, but strategic denial—i.e., keeping China out of the asset. In this environment, willingness to pay is based on geopolitical utility, not just cash flow.
This "strategic premium" could easily push the transaction value well above traditional fair market value—possibly translating to a per-share price north of $3 for AVZ shareholders, especially under competitive bidding conditions between Chinese and U.S.-aligned entities.
3. Lithium Spot Market Influence: OPEC-Like Dynamics Emerging
Control of Manono also carries implications for the global lithium spot market, which remains volatile and supply-sensitive. While the lithium market is not yet cartelized, the influence of large, centralized producers is growing—mirroring early-stage dynamics seen in oil markets decades ago.
A single party with long-term offtake control over Manono could:
If AVZ is the gatekeeper to that influence—even if only for a limited equity stake—the negotiation value of its interest increases significantly.
4. Scarcity and First-Mover Advantage
Very few projects globally offer:
Final Thought
While speculative, the case for a sale price exceeding $3 per share for AVZ is credible when viewed through a geopolitical and strategic lens, rather than just pure project economics. The intersection of:
Disclaimer:
This is not financial or investment advice. It is a opinion only and subject to error. You should always do your own research, consider your personal risk profile, and consult a qualified adviser before making any investment decisions. The lithium sector, while promising, is highly speculative and politically complex.
The potential sale or buyout of AVZ Minerals' interest in the Manono Lithium and Tin Project could fetch well above $3 per share, and not simply due to the underlying resource size—but because of its geopolitical and economic leverage in the context of global lithium supply. Several converging factors point to a scenario where bidding pressure and strategic motivations could drive a premium sale valuation well beyond what traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models would suggest.
1. Strategic Asset in the U.S.–China Lithium Arms Race
Control over the Manono deposit represents more than ownership of a mine—it signifies influence over one of the largest undeveloped hard-rock lithium deposits on Earth. In a world increasingly split between Western and Chinese supply chains, whoever controls Manono gains long-term leverage over:
- Battery supply chains, particularly for EVs and energy storage;
- Pricing power in global lithium markets;
- Political capital in green energy policy and strategic mineral diplomacy.
2. Geopolitical Premium on Ownership
The Manono deposit is not just a resource; it's a strategic lever.
If AVZ were to sell its controlling interest to a U.S.-aligned buyer, the DRC could eliminate Chinese control over a globally strategic deposit, shifting long-term supply dynamics toward the West. Such a deal may be viewed by buyers not just in terms of profitability, but strategic denial—i.e., keeping China out of the asset. In this environment, willingness to pay is based on geopolitical utility, not just cash flow.
This "strategic premium" could easily push the transaction value well above traditional fair market value—possibly translating to a per-share price north of $3 for AVZ shareholders, especially under competitive bidding conditions between Chinese and U.S.-aligned entities.
3. Lithium Spot Market Influence: OPEC-Like Dynamics Emerging
Control of Manono also carries implications for the global lithium spot market, which remains volatile and supply-sensitive. While the lithium market is not yet cartelized, the influence of large, centralized producers is growing—mirroring early-stage dynamics seen in oil markets decades ago.
A single party with long-term offtake control over Manono could:
- Throttle or accelerate supply to manage price dynamics;
- Influence contract negotiations with downstream battery producers;
- Establish strategic reserves or price floors through coordinated supply action.
If AVZ is the gatekeeper to that influence—even if only for a limited equity stake—the negotiation value of its interest increases significantly.
4. Scarcity and First-Mover Advantage
Very few projects globally offer:
- Over 800 million tonnes of lithium-bearing ore;
- High grades of 1.6–1.7% Li₂O;
- An advanced permitting and feasibility position;
- And now, improving security and political support (via peace deals and U.S. alignment).
Final Thought
While speculative, the case for a sale price exceeding $3 per share for AVZ is credible when viewed through a geopolitical and strategic lens, rather than just pure project economics. The intersection of:
- A world-class lithium deposit;
- Great power competition between the U.S. and China;
- The potential to shape global lithium pricing;
- And DRC’s newfound incentive to align with Western interests...
Disclaimer:This is not financial or investment advice. It is a opinion only and subject to error. You should always do your own research, consider your personal risk profile, and consult a qualified adviser before making any investment decisions. The lithium sector, while promising, is highly speculative and politically complex.
Is there a source for this or is this A.I. generated?Why a Sale of AVZ’s Interest Could Exceed $3: Strategic Lithium, Superpower Competition, and Market Influence
The potential sale or buyout of AVZ Minerals' interest in the Manono Lithium and Tin Project could fetch well above $3 per share, and not simply due to the underlying resource size—but because of its geopolitical and economic leverage in the context of global lithium supply. Several converging factors point to a scenario where bidding pressure and strategic motivations could drive a premium sale valuation well beyond what traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models would suggest.
1. Strategic Asset in the U.S.–China Lithium Arms Race
Control over the Manono deposit represents more than ownership of a mine—it signifies influence over one of the largest undeveloped hard-rock lithium deposits on Earth. In a world increasingly split between Western and Chinese supply chains, whoever controls Manono gains long-term leverage over:
Both China and the United States are acutely aware of this. China already controls over 70% of global lithium processing and has significant upstream access via companies like Zijin Mining and CATL, both of whom are linked to the original Manono ownership dispute. Meanwhile, the United States—under bipartisan pressure to secure critical minerals—has already backed U.S.-aligned entities like KoBold Metals to gain influence over Manono.
- Battery supply chains, particularly for EVs and energy storage;
- Pricing power in global lithium markets;
- Political capital in green energy policy and strategic mineral diplomacy.
2. Geopolitical Premium on Ownership
The Manono deposit is not just a resource; it's a strategic lever.
If AVZ were to sell its controlling interest to a U.S.-aligned buyer, the DRC could eliminate Chinese control over a globally strategic deposit, shifting long-term supply dynamics toward the West. Such a deal may be viewed by buyers not just in terms of profitability, but strategic denial—i.e., keeping China out of the asset. In this environment, willingness to pay is based on geopolitical utility, not just cash flow.
This "strategic premium" could easily push the transaction value well above traditional fair market value—possibly translating to a per-share price north of $3 for AVZ shareholders, especially under competitive bidding conditions between Chinese and U.S.-aligned entities.
3. Lithium Spot Market Influence: OPEC-Like Dynamics Emerging
Control of Manono also carries implications for the global lithium spot market, which remains volatile and supply-sensitive. While the lithium market is not yet cartelized, the influence of large, centralized producers is growing—mirroring early-stage dynamics seen in oil markets decades ago.
A single party with long-term offtake control over Manono could:
This type of soft power is especially attractive to both Chinese and U.S. interests. In a world transitioning rapidly to electric mobility and grid-scale battery storage, price control over lithium is a proxy for economic advantage.
- Throttle or accelerate supply to manage price dynamics;
- Influence contract negotiations with downstream battery producers;
- Establish strategic reserves or price floors through coordinated supply action.
If AVZ is the gatekeeper to that influence—even if only for a limited equity stake—the negotiation value of its interest increases significantly.
4. Scarcity and First-Mover Advantage
Very few projects globally offer:
In a world where time-to-market and ESG compliance are critical, Manono is one of only a handful of assets capable of entering large-scale production this decade. First-mover access to a Tier-1 lithium resource with geopolitical backing can command a substantial premium in a competitive sale.
- Over 800 million tonnes of lithium-bearing ore;
- High grades of 1.6–1.7% Li₂O;
- An advanced permitting and feasibility position;
- And now, improving security and political support (via peace deals and U.S. alignment).
Final Thought
While speculative, the case for a sale price exceeding $3 per share for AVZ is credible when viewed through a geopolitical and strategic lens, rather than just pure project economics. The intersection of:
...creates a unique opportunity for AVZ to realize outsized value upon exit.
- A world-class lithium deposit;
- Great power competition between the U.S. and China;
- The potential to shape global lithium pricing;
- And DRC’s newfound incentive to align with Western interests...
This is not financial or investment advice. It is an opinion only and subject to error. You should always do your own research, consider your personal risk profile, and consult a qualified adviser before making any investment decisions. The lithium sector, while promising, is highly speculative and politically complex.
I speculate $ 3.50 is the minimum price the board will consider.
Clearly AI, likely based on a one-dimensional user prompt along the lines of "provide reasoning why the sale of AVZ's interests could exceed 3 dollars".
KentCStrait
Regular
That would be wonderful, but KoBold have us over a barrel. The bidding "war" we were hoping for hasn't eventuated. The Chinese rat fuckers went in through the back door and stole the north. The US rat fuckers have come in through the front door, smiling and waving, to steal the south.
Keep hoping for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Not necessarily. NF has mentioned other US interest. That could potentially force Kobold to present a more realistic bid or risk losing out.
On 17 July 2025, KoBold Metals and the DRC govt signed an agreement in principle covering a range of things, notably for KoBold to acquire and develop Roche Dure and resolve the outstanding legal disputes. However, low-balling AVZ is unlikely to get KoBold any traction. AVZ retains the option of simply letting the ICC and ICSID arbitrations continue to their conclusions.
Until the DRC govt rescinds or expands the agreement to include other interested parties, a bidding war may not eventuate. However, what may eventuate is an expanded KoBold bid that includes a financier and a big miner to share the financial load and ensure a mine and processing facilities are built and operated within time and budget.
Nigel's interview two weeks ago alludes that others may have provided a more lucrative offer than what KoBold are offering at the moment.
Felix
Regular
Tolate says: As a consequence of the discontinuance, Fat Tail no longer seeks any relief from the court against AVZ, Mr Ferguson and Mr Clarke.
But Michael wants a hand job from you, you fuckwit, and asks why are you now promoting positive stuff about AVZ?
I’m considering full suspension of pay, and no redundancy
But Michael wants a hand job from you, you fuckwit, and asks why are you now promoting positive stuff about AVZ?
I’m considering full suspension of pay, and no redundancy
If another US consortium were in the mix, and they made a higher bid which Nige was happy with, I don’t think the US gov would have much trouble requesting the DRC to make similar arrangements as they did for KoBold.
Yes, and as Nigel said, AVZ is talking to other interested parties. Everyone understands the scale, quality and global footprint of this resource. Nothing is finished until the fat lady sings.
Regardless of who is the successful party, all AVZ shareholders (except the MMGA tapeworms) deserve a decent payout.
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Hodlandwin69
Regular
Massad Boulos brokered the agreement and probably somewhere in the web of corruption, he probably benefits in someway with Kobold getting the deal.
All IMO
Bin59
Regular
The Africa Down Under. conference is on again soon (3-5 September) - this year the DRC Minister of Mines will not be attending (they were a no show the previous 2 years despite being on the programme) - Penny Wong will be at the opening as well as BHP Explore’s Manager, Sophie Proud who is speaking on Day 1 of the programme (BHP Explore have partnered with Kobold Metals to explore battery metals in Australia and other countries).
www.africadownunderconference.com
Conference Programme - Africa Down Under
www.africadownunderconference.com
The Africa Down Under. conference is on again soon (3-5 September) - this year the DRC Minister of Mines will not be attending (they were a no show the previous 2 years despite being on the programme) - Penny Wong will be at the opening as well as BHP Explore’s Manager, Sophie Proud who is speaking on Day 1 of the programme (BHP Explore have partnered with Kobold Metals to explore battery metals in Australia and other countries).
Conference Programme - Africa Down Under
Penny Who?
KentCStrait
Regular
Penny Tolate? seriously Tolate has done more for AVZ shareholders than Wong or any other muppet in our government. So depressing.
Dave Evans
Regular
The Africa Down Under. conference is on again soon (3-5 September) - this year the DRC Minister of Mines will not be attending (they were a no show the previous 2 years despite being on the programme) - Penny Wong will be at the opening as well as BHP Explore’s Manager, Sophie Proud who is speaking on Day 1 of the programme (BHP Explore have partnered with Kobold Metals to explore battery metals in Australia and other countries).
Conference Programme - Africa Down Under
Corruption is still rampant today in the DRC Mining Sector. Go back and read all the information on the first two pages of this thread
DRC - AFRICA BATTERY METALS FORUM
DRC - AFRICA BATTERY METALS FORUM 2023 PROMOTED BY THE VUKA GROUP TO INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO CORRUPTION STILL EXISTS NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE 2017 ASSESSMENT OF CORRUPTION RISKS IN THE AWARDING OF MINING RIGHTS IN THE DRC PDF...
thestockexchange.com.au
And then look who is the speaker at this years 2025 DRC Africa Battery Metals Forum
Africa Battery Metals, DRC
@BatteryDrc
Exciting News! Join us in extending a warm welcome to our speaker– Celestin Kibeya, Director General, Cominière, DRC at the DRC - Africa Battery Metals Forum Register now to secure your spot at this transformative event here: https://eu1.hubs.ly/H0mmzDR0
6:30 PM · Aug 15, 2025
3,895 Views
https://x.com/BatteryDrc/status/1956272158448963792
It’s amazing how the DRC Africa Battery Metals Forum advertises the most corrupt person in the DRC mining sector and this tweet has already had nearly 4000 views
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Dave Evans
Regular
Corruption is still rampant today in the DRC Mining Sector. Go back and read all the information on the first two pages of this thread
DRC - AFRICA BATTERY METALS FORUM
DRC - AFRICA BATTERY METALS FORUM 2023 PROMOTED BY THE VUKA GROUP TO INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO CORRUPTION STILL EXISTS NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE 2017 ASSESSMENT OF CORRUPTION RISKS IN THE AWARDING OF MINING RIGHTS IN THE DRC PDF...
And then look who is the speaker at this years 2025 DRC Africa Battery Metals Forum
Africa Battery Metals, DRC
@BatteryDrc
Exciting News! Join us in extending a warm welcome to our speaker– Celestin Kibeya, Director General, Cominière, DRC at the DRC - Africa Battery Metals Forum Register now to secure your spot at this transformative event here: https://eu1.hubs.ly/H0mmzDR0
6:30 PM · Aug 15, 2025
3,895 Views
https://x.com/BatteryDrc/status/1956272158448963792
It’s amazing how the DRC Africa Battery Metals Forum advertises the most corrupt person in the DRC mining sector and this tweet has already had nearly 4000 views
Here’s the recording of Kibeya taking Zijin’s bribe
x.com
x.com
Here’s the DRC Inspector General of Finance’s report exposing the corruption
Here’s the ICC ordering Cominiere to pay AVZ €39 million in penalties
Here’s the ICSID ordering the DRC to return the PR13359 permit back to AVZ’ and Dathcom
Here’s photos of Celestin Kibeya
- Greedily eyeing AVZ’s lithium drill cores at Manono
- Speaking about controlling the billions of dollars of foreign invested money in the DRC mining sector
- Celebrating with his mates at Cominiere
Here’s a report on the corruption of Felix Tshisekedi from June this year
High levels of corruption crumbling Tshisekedi regime
Author: Yousuf Rwaka2025-06-01
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) stands out as one of the most corrupt and poor countries worldwide. President Felix Tshisekedi’s family and inner circle are embezzling national resources while the Congolese suffer from hunger and poor infrastructure in all aspects of life.
Congolese Minister of Justice Constant Mutamba is now one of the targets of the very system he oversees. He is under investigation for embezzlement and public funds mismanagement.
A request for investigation was made by the Attorney General to the National Assembly to launch a judicial investigation on Mutamba, who is accused of embezzling USD 39 million intended for the construction of a prison in Kisangani, Tshopo province.
“The National Assembly has authorized the Attorney General of the Court of Cassation to initiate legal proceedings against the Minister of Justice. He was forced to submit his resignation to Prime Minister Judith Suminwa,” said a source from Kinshasa.
For the minister of justice to be subjected to prosecution, the National Assembly was required to lift his immunity. It is unclear whether Tshisekedi will allow fair legal proceedings against Mutamba’s crimes, as the latter has been the president’s preferred proxy.
Tshisekedi had shielded his special strategic advisor, Vidiye Tshimanga, in September 2022, after leaked videos went viral showing Tshimanga offering unlimited access to DRC’s minerals in exchange for bribes, including shares in the companies and underhand paybacks, for himself and the president.
Former Minister of Finance, Nicolas Kazadi, a close confidant of Tshisekedi, has been linked to a scandal regarding the misappropriation of millions of US dollars.
Since Tshisekedi’s maneuvers to mask corruption scandals tied to his inner circle are not anything new, Kazadi discreetly left DRC in June 2024 for France through arrangements made from the President’s Office.
Kazadi has never been subject to any arrest warrant, and his case has remained dormant.
On May 20, the former Prime Minister who turned opposition leader - Matata Ponyo - was sentenced to 10 years of forced labor after he was convicted by the Constitutional Court of involvement in the embezzlement of approximately USD 245 million in state funds.
Matata’s accomplices, such as former Central Bank Governor Deogratias Mutombo and South African businessman Christo Grobler were sentenced to five years in prison.
Corruption and embezzlement are longstanding issues in the DRC, but Tshisekedi’s regime made the situation worse than ever.
Tshisekedi’s regime is increasingly crumbling over corruption and embezzlement scandals, in addition to the escalating armed conflict in eastern DRC where AFC/M23 rebels control swathes of territory in the Kivus.
The 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) ranked DRC 163 out of 180 countries, with a score of 20 out of 100, indicating a high level of perceived public sector corruption. The report perceived DRC as one of the least effective countries in controlling public-sector corruption.
High levels of corruption crumbling Tshisekedi regime
High levels of corruption crumbling Tshisekedi regimewww.thegreatlakeseye.com
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