AVZ Discussion 2022

[Skar]

China can't keep flooding its market indefinitely with nasty lepidolite in order to manipulate the price of imported product. There will be a time soon when the liabilities associated with the extraction and processing of this low grade material cannot be further absorbed by provincial budgets and processors...and then prices will change virtually overnight.

As long as they have a monopoly (or most of the purchasing power) on the chemical production/conversion, of course they can. Thats why non-china supply chains are so important. Think about how Woolies and Coles treat farmers, its a similar power dynamic.

They can stock up supply at "real market rates", then not buy and push the market into a supply glut and buy at the low prices... problem is thats not sustainable which is why we see such extreme commodity cycles or as Mr Lithium Lowry says "high prices fix high prices, low prices fix low prices". Without new entrants and exploration the market will quickly get constrained again, especially as demand increases.

 

[Flight996]

As long as they have a monopoly (or most of the purchasing power) on the chemical production/conversion, of course they can. Thats why non-china supply chains are so important. Think about how Woolies and Coles treat farmers, its a similar power dynamic.

They can stock up supply at "real market rates", then not buy and push the market into a supply glut and buy at the low prices... problem is thats not sustainable which is why we see such extreme commodity cycles or as Mr Lithium Lowry says "high prices fix high prices, low prices fix low prices". Without new entrants and exploration the market will quickly get constrained again, especially as demand increases.

Putting environmental and social costs aside for the time being, there is a significant cost to deliberately choosing to extract the poorest and most labor and regulatory intensive lithium ore available in order to distort the market. Lepidolite grades are typically <1% lithium oxide, but the typical commercial spodumene mine is >1% lithium oxide. As a result, extraction and processing of low-grade lepidolite has created significant financial burdens for local authorities and producers because they have to manage the financial shortfall and higher interest rates.

Increased costs, including regulatory burdens and sustainability issues, distort the market and contribute to unsustainable indebtedness. Of course the central planners deny that this burden is unsustainable.

Nonetheless, you are right in saying that in contestable markets, high prices eventually fix high prices, and low prices eventually fix low prices. Nothing stays distorted forever.

 

[RHyNO]

Market looks lovely for their purchase at 7b by the time the deal is through it’ll be worth 8b and they can mine it for free when they control the market. 20 - 40 Billion dollar resource. At least. Jeez if I was Jeff, I’d be “ok let’s do it Billy” then back to the wedding and his lovely young bride.

 

[Skar]

Putting environmental and social costs to one side for the time being, there is a significant cost to deliberately choosing to extract the poorest and most labor and regulatory intensive lithium ore available in order to distort the market.

Yeah... which is why China has been aggressively buying up mines on the cheap while the prices are low and explorers cannot get funding to become producers, its predatory (AVZ now in this spot with the added DRC shenanigans, see how our BOD can negotiate it). Case in Point many have been f(*^ed over on LLL, PSC, Altura, Alita/Alliance... Now that Ganfeng have secured their supply for cheap guess what they are saying "oh prices too low not sustainable":

China's Ganfeng Says Current Lithium Prices May Not Be Sustainable, Costs of Multiple Projects Hard to Support | SMM

Polaris ESS Network learned that on June 26, Ganfeng Lithium stated at an investor conference that the current lithium price exhibits obvious bottoming characteristics, with the costs of multiple projects unable to support the current lithium price level.

news.metal.com

Its a cycle that will keep repeating, just gotta get the timing down.

 

[Strongman]

Have just been having a look at the ICSID website and it seems that both parties ie Claimant and Respondent have to agree to recommence the hearing. My thoughts were that Fasken and co would try to delay this as long as possible. If the parties dont agree then the tribunal makes the decision
In the AVZ announcement it says that the proceedings will now resume. Do we know for sure the proceedings have recommenced and if so when would the new trial date be ( originally 2-5 June) Also anyone know what the injunction pursuant to procedural order No. 3 ?

The ICSID Proceedings will now resume, and the Company is taking steps to hold the DRC to account for its failure to comply with the injunctions ordered pursuant to Procedural Order n°3, including with the filing of a new application with the ICSID Tribunal.

 

[Roon]

Have just been having a look at the ICSID website and it seems that both parties ie Claimant and Respondent have to agree to recommence the hearing. My thoughts were that Fasken and co would try to delay this as long as possible. If the parties dont agree then the tribunal makes the decision
In the AVZ announcement it says that the proceedings will now resume. Do we know for sure the proceedings have recommenced and if so when would the new trial date be ( originally 2-5 June) Also anyone know what the injunction pursuant to procedural order No. 3 ?

The ICSID Proceedings will now resume, and the Company is taking steps to hold the DRC to account for its failure to comply with the injunctions ordered pursuant to Procedural Order n°3, including with the filing of a new application with the ICSID Tribunal.

Yeah they'll no doubt say they have no space in their trial calendar for the next few months and try to delay it as much as possible. Also given how far ahead we had to lock in those June dates, I feel that a renewed hearing won't be anytime soon.

 

[wombat74]

Have just been having a look at the ICSID website and it seems that both parties ie Claimant and Respondent have to agree to recommence the hearing. My thoughts were that Fasken and co would try to delay this as long as possible. If the parties dont agree then the tribunal makes the decision
In the AVZ announcement it says that the proceedings will now resume. Do we know for sure the proceedings have recommenced and if so when would the new trial date be ( originally 2-5 June) Also anyone know what the injunction pursuant to procedural order No. 3 ?

The ICSID Proceedings will now resume, and the Company is taking steps to hold the DRC to account for its failure to comply with the injunctions ordered pursuant to Procedural Order n°3, including with the filing of a new application with the ICSID Tribunal.

I want to know what Kobold are doing . So far not a word/leak . They talked the Manono deal up . We have an MoU . At some point soon they will have to show their hand . Either they are in or they are out . If they are in we are in .IMO

 

[Strongman]

Yeah they'll no doubt say they have no space in their trial calendar for the next few months and try to delay it as much as possible. Also given how far ahead we had to lock in those June dates, I feel that a renewed hearing won't be anytime soon.

Yeah seems like a high price to pay for seemingly no result.
My thoughts are that the suspension of the ICSID was never intended to allow time to try to negotiate with Cominiere, Cami, Min Mines etc . The ICSID case is against the DRC govt not directly concerning those bunch of crooks. The ICC case was tellingly not suspended as iam sure Nigel and DLA Piper had zeroe expectation of negotiating a deal with those Farken numb nuts while the ICSID was suspended or any other time. As Carlos said a few days ago they actually beleive their own shit about being the rightful owner of 13359. The ICSID temporary suspension had everything to do with negotiating with Felix re the DRC/ Rawanda peace agreement. As was stated in the suspension announcement the suspension was simply a gesture of goodwill. I reckon the US putting pressure on Felix to issue an executive order re our situation is the only way this will get done
The fact the peace deal has been signed but M23/AFCKabila are still in play keeps the pressure squarely on Felix

 

[Flight996]

Yeah... which is why China has been aggressively buying up mines on the cheap while the prices are low and explorers cannot get funding to become producers, its predatory (AVZ now in this spot with the added DRC shenanigans, see how our BOD can negotiate it). Case in Point many have been f(*^ed over on LLL, PSC, Altura, Alita/Alliance... Now that Ganfeng have secured their supply for cheap guess what they are saying "oh prices too low not sustainable":

China's Ganfeng Says Current Lithium Prices May Not Be Sustainable, Costs of Multiple Projects Hard to Support | SMM

Polaris ESS Network learned that on June 26, Ganfeng Lithium stated at an investor conference that the current lithium price exhibits obvious bottoming characteristics, with the costs of multiple projects unable to support the current lithium price level.

news.metal.com

Its a cycle that will keep repeating, just gotta get the timing down.

Yep, Chinese fuck over everyone at every opportunity. Laws, regulations and established international business norms don't apply to them.

During the first round of the Australia-China bilateral trade talks, I represented certain Australian interests, and eye-balled their negotiators across the table. Regardless of what was agreed, they wanted it revisited next day in an attempt to extract incrementally more concessions. It's how they roll, and why their word has little value.

Cheers
F

 

[Strongman]

I want to know what Kobold are doing . So far not a word/leak . They talked the Manono deal up . We have an MoU . At some point soon they will have to show their hand . Either they are in or they are out . If they are in we are in .IMO

Yeah Wombat this is so fucken frustrating. Just more of the same in a seemingly endless shit show

 

[Jongo]

From Copilot ...

In typical ICSID proceedings, the interval between the resumption of arbitration and the scheduling of a hearing can range from 3 to 6 months, depending on several factors:

Key Influences on Hearing Scheduling

• Tribunal Availability: Coordinating the schedules of three arbitrators, counsel, and witnesses often takes weeks.
• Procedural Calendar: The tribunal must first issue or update a procedural calendar, which includes deadlines for submissions and logistical planning.
• Complexity of the Case: If new applications (like AVZ’s recent filing on DRC’s non-compliance) require preliminary rulings, this can delay scheduling.
• Language and Interpretation Needs: ICSID may need time to arrange interpreters and transcription services, especially if multiple languages are involved.
• Hearing Format: In-person hearings (e.g., in Washington, D.C.) require more lead time than virtual or hybrid formats.

Estimated Timeline for AVZ v DRC
Given that AVZ resumed proceedings on 24 June 2025, and assuming no major procedural disputes arise, a hearing date could be set between September and November 2025. However, if the tribunal opts to bifurcate issues (e.g., jurisdiction vs. merits), that could push the timeline further.

 

[Jongo]

My dream timeline ...

1. USA/DRC minerals for security deal completed by say Friday 11-Jul.
2. Kobold/RIO/DRC finalise an agreement for the following items by Friday 18-Jul.
   1. Kobold/RIO to be awarded the mining licence.
   2. AVZ to be paid fair value.
   3. AVZ to drop the ICSID and ICC cases, which will be well before the probable ICSID hearing resumption date.
3. Kobold/RIO pays the 10B USD or so to AVZ by Friday 25-Jul.
4. AVZ distributes the funds to shareholders by Friday 1-Aug.
5. Big celebration party in the West, given that the AVZ HQ is in Perth, on Friday 15-Aug. Or alternatively we could retrace The Count's recent pub crawl in The Rocks in Sydney.

 

[BRICK]

1. USA/DRC minerals for security deal completed by say Friday 11-Jul.
2. Kobold/RIO/DRC finalise an agreement for the following items by Friday 18-Jul.
   1. Kobold/RIO to be awarded the mining licence.
   2. AVZ to be paid fair value.
   3. AVZ to drop the ICSID and ICC cases, which will be well before the probable ICSID hearing resumption date.
3. Kobold/RIO pays the 10B USD or so to AVZ by Friday 25-Jul.
4. AVZ distributes the funds to shareholders by Friday 1-Aug.
5. Big celebration party in the West, given that the AVZ HQ is in Perth, on Friday 15-Aug. Or alternatively we could retrace The Count's recent pub crawl in The Rocks in Sydney.

And.... on August 18th i plow all my funds back into the lithium resurgance (if it turns out to be one)

 

[Remark]

And.... on August 18th i plow all my funds back into the lithium resurgance (if it turns out to be one)

I'll be looking for the next great African opportunity

 

[Goldenboy]

I want to know what Kobold are doing . So far not a word/leak . They talked the Manono deal up . We have an MoU . At some point soon they will have to show their hand . Either they are in or they are out . If they are in we are in .IMO

There are whispers in the wind that there are other parties interested …. Who … ?? Maybe the whole ICSID is a smokescreen.

 

[Pokok]

I'll be looking for the next great African opportunity

And it's not even friday

 

[JNRB]

I want to know what Kobold are doing . So far not a word/leak . They talked the Manono deal up . We have an MoU . At some point soon they will have to show their hand . Either they are in or they are out . If they are in we are in .IMO

?
Why so impatient. We know the milestones that Kobold are waiting on.
Peace deal signed.
Commercial deal with DRC set to follow soon.
What is it you think has changed for Kobold that they need show?

 

[Rechnerhand]

The contours of peace deal between Kigali and Kinshasa take shape

 

[Rechnerhand]

" ... As a central player in the governance of the mining sector, CAMI reaffirms its
commitment to the parsimonious management of our mineral and
to support the vision of the Head of State, who places the development of our resources in the
natural sources for national development and the well-being of
Citizens. ..."

Independence of the DRC: CAMI reaffirms its commitment to mining governance at the service of the people

 

[Rechnerhand]

DRC: Manganese project in Luozi aligns the 5 axes of mining diversification advocated by Kizito Pakabomba --> a good example how it could work between DRC and foreign investors and their governments.

also this --> DRC-Japan: A historic joint venture for the exploitation and processing of manganese in Kongo-Central