AVZ Discussion 2022

[Winenut]

My error re the following point ... too many Bingtangs.

"AVZ/DRC ICSID deferment was for 1 month rather than 1 week."

What I was thinking was rather than have the deferral ending one week after 15-Jun, the date on which the peace discussions became serious, it would have been better to specify a deferral end date of at least 1 month from 15-Jun. However, because AVZ/DRC only specified a deferral end date of 23-Jun, the too short deferral has created a problem. However, I am hopeful that the definitive peace agreement will be achieved on 27-Jun, after which this hiccup with the deferral being too short will be a minor incovenience that will be insignificant.

Regarding the following point, I posted a few weeks ago that FT is probably simply keeping his friends close and keeping his enemies closer.

"DRC appointed the ceo of Cominière as one of their advisors for the negotiations of minerals for security deal."

FT needed Celestin to explain to him how the brown paper bags would be working this time around....

 

[Hudnut]

Here we go again with people throwing out numbers for what they think we'll get.
That's all immaterial, we'll get told a number when the time comes.

I'm more interested in how that number arrives.

Variables include:
- What is the actual deal?
- If just taking over AVZ's interest in Manono, what is the sequencing of establishing PR, sale, proceeds transfer?
- Is a PR required, and will the DRC give that to the buyer, or to AVZ prior (fscking doubtful).
- Who are we talking to?
- Is a deal still in the works, and just waiting for peace accords etc to be signed
- What is the timing re: transfer of funds and ownership?
- How do we guarantee deals will be honoured?
- Is all the above crap, given it's a "non-binding framework" and we are going through ICSID to the end?
- Are there other suitors?
- Is CATH still holding up their part of the deal re: funding?
- How does this affect CATH, and what might they do?

I have my own thoughts on the above and the likelihood of each option. All of these are more important to be answered way before we get into the latest 10 page shitfight about whether any offer might be 20c or $3.50.

All I KNOW currently is:
- The DRC dont' care and don't want to talk
- ICSID has been delayed, and we don't know when they'll get in a courtroom.
- Geopolitical forces are at play, but we don't know to what extent.
- DRC, CCP and related parties will string this out as long as possible.

I DON'T know the timetable for ICSID, or any other deal, precursors for any deal, or what that deal is.

Aaaaaaand.....

$12.

 

[Xerof]

@zeeb0t are you happy to allow this new member to advertise on your website? I believe this is the 10th different persona to join this week and then spam.

 

[hedrox]

From fortunehunter on HC

AVZ Minerals Resumes Arbitration Against DRC Over Manono Lithium Project

AVZ Minerals resumes arbitration against DRC over disputed Manono lithium project rights after failed settlement talks.

discoveryalert.com.au

Nice find @cruiser51 ....great article, everybody should read that

 

[Winenut]

Nice find @cruiser51 ....great article, everybody should read that

Totally agree @hedrox

Great find by @cruiser51 and one of the most straight forward but comprehensive assessments of the AVZ situation that I have read anywhere

 

[Mute22]

Thought provoking post from Michael Potter on the Crapper:

Long time holder, but haven’t posted much on AVZ as I feel there are people ok here that do the heavy lifting against the Toilets of the world so my hats off to you.

Thought I’d bring a slightly diffeRent perspective to the table. Imo everything here has to do with timings. The peace agreement was sought to have the dotted line signed on the 15th of June. This was one of the conditions outlined in the Kobold document signed by AVZ for the purchase of assets to take place. In anticipation for this, AVZ then sought to take a 1 month pause (23 May - 23 June) to potentially clear the path for these proceedings once the peace agreement had been signed. Due to x/y/z factors the agreement was delayed until the 27th June. This then was obviously outside the window of the ICSID postponement. My gut feel is that they didn’t want to take another risk on further delays in signing and will continue on with the ICSID processings until the peace agreement has been signed with the US and for the negotiations with Kobold or another interested party to continue.

I am as keen as everyone else for a great result for SH and to end what feels like decades of sagas. I think we need to be patient and wait until the Peace agreement is signed (hopefully this friday) before continuing the speculation.

 

[Panther22]

Nice find @cruiser51 ....great article, everybody should read that

Very informative article.
I like all the phrases used

"contract enforcement"
"investment protection"
"state intervention"
"investment secruity"
"resource governance"
"licence revocations"
"inherent uncertainty"
"enforcement remains inconsistent"

when the word "corruption" would have sufficed.

 

[Winenut]

Thought provoking post from Michael Potter on the Crapper:

Long time holder, but haven’t posted much on AVZ as I feel there are people ok here that do the heavy lifting against the Toilets of the world so my hats off to you.

Thought I’d bring a slightly diffeRent perspective to the table. Imo everything here has to do with timings. The peace agreement was sought to have the dotted line signed on the 15th of June. This was one of the conditions outlined in the Kobold document signed by AVZ for the purchase of assets to take place. In anticipation for this, AVZ then sought to take a 1 month pause (23 May - 23 June) to potentially clear the path for these proceedings once the peace agreement had been signed. Due to x/y/z factors the agreement was delayed until the 27th June. This then was obviously outside the window of the ICSID postponement. My gut feel is that they didn’t want to take another risk on further delays in signing and will continue on with the ICSID processings until the peace agreement has been signed with the US and for the negotiations with Kobold or another interested party to continue.

I am as keen as everyone else for a great result for SH and to end what feels like decades of sagas. I think we need to be patient and wait until the Peace agreement is signed (hopefully this friday) before continuing the speculation.

Fairly balanced there

And yes....again we wait for a deadline to be met (or not) and look for an announcement to then hopefully have "some" idea of next steps or timeframes or anything

 

[Skar]

If any company in the world has US$10 Billion to spend on Lithium they're buying PLS, twice.

I seriously doubt that would ever get through shareholder approval (I would vote hell no, to me PLS is worth at a minimum 15-20B). Dale Henderson likewise just bought another 750k shares.

Current short term over production of lithium and consequent market manipulation by China will yield the same results it did in 2021, there will not be enough exploration, expansion and new supply coming into the market to meet demand which will see a reactionary price spike projected 27-30, hopefully with the emergence of non-China supply chains thereafter, more down stream cacpacity and competition will mean china can't squeeze the price down and .

Anyone in the market to buy AVZ outside of China will do it on the condition that the ML is returned back to AVZ and then onsold. This (almost) makes the jurisdiction risk a non-issue as they will have the backing of the US government. Anyone talking below $1.50 has rocks in their head IMO, if any smart businessperson had the option to buy AVZ with US backing or 2x PLS they would buy the money printing machine every day. That's not even mentioning that PLS isn't in the market to sell and the US wants critical minerals NOW.

The 6.2b USD claim at ICSID equals 9.5b AUD, roughly ~$2.7 AUD per share (not including damages, just the asset price) and you think anyone that is talking over $1.50 is retarded? That's an 80% premium!

All court cases are clear cut so far and the arbitrators won't look to the DRC actions so far with a smile on their face. It isn't like we don't have that much of a leg to stand on.

I don't understand why everyone thinks we still don't hold the cards? Kobolds screaming from the rooftops that they want us to be paid fair value (not an 80% premium) for a deposit that's going to make them rich for multiple decades.

The major problem is AVZ is just too dam big for most to chew. LOM projections are what 20 years. To maximise the value of the measured resource of AVZ, on a 20 year LOM you would need a 40Mt mine. Thats insane!!! Thats the throughput of 8 PLS mines (once P1000 is online), for the POTENTIAL of 1 AVZ.

Keyword is potential. AVZ now is the equivalent of back when PLS was at ~30c preconstruction in 2016 or 2020 whenever that milestone was.

 

[timb89]

Anyone in the market to buy AVZ outside of China will do it on the condition that the ML is returned back to AVZ and then onsold. This (almost) makes the jurisdiction risk a non-issue as they will have the backing of the US government. Anyone talking below $1.50 has rocks in their head IMO, if any smart businessperson had the option to buy AVZ with US backing or 2x PLS they would buy the money printing machine every day. That's not even mentioning that PLS isn't in the market to sell and the US wants critical minerals NOW.

The 6.2b USD claim at ICSID equals 9.5b AUD, roughly ~$2.7 AUD per share (not including damages, just the asset price) and you think anyone that is talking over $1.50 is retarded? That's an 80% premium!

All court cases are clear cut so far and the arbitrators won't look to the DRC actions so far with a smile on their face. It isn't like we don't have that much of a leg to stand on.

I don't understand why everyone thinks we still don't hold the cards? Kobolds screaming from the rooftops that they want us to be paid fair value (not an 80% premium) for a deposit that's going to make them rich for multiple decades.

Let me walk back my retarded comment. When said that I intended that for $6 USD crowd.

But I still think anything over lets say $2 AUD is extremely unrealistic.

Kobold saying they want to pay us fair value doesn't mean anything. As the only buyer they could say anything is fair value. We've seen nothing from DRC to suggest they will release ML to us to put on open market.

I think you're also weighting a bias of USAs govt interest in DRC reflecting an interest in AVZ. We've seen no direct evidence in this.

Re: PLS I'm just using that as an example. I know its not for sale. But given you could offer double for the entirity of the project and still have change left over, instead of AVZ ISCID legal claim amount, I think its a compelling counter example. Yes you're not getting the strategic control. But AVZs control is as strong as whatever ISCID authority ends up being.

 

[PutUsernameHere]

Following this shitshow and getting a resolution, part of fair compensation (or just a token thank you from Kobold for selling them one of the world's greatest assets) all shareholders should receive a chunk of hard rock from the site in a little display box for their trophy shelves/memory displays. A reminder of the mental fortitude to remain steadfast these last years, and even further for those battling the naysayers when it was back in the sub-10c days.

I hope there's a new announcement in the coming week following Friday's signing with an actual update on the state of things. I'm getting itchy, need my next dose of hopium soon

 

[timb89]

I seriously doubt that would ever get through shareholder approval (I would vote hell no, to me PLS is worth at a minimum 15-20B). Dale Henderson likewise just bought another 750k shares.

Current short term over production of lithium and consequent market manipulation by China will yield the same results it did in 2021, there will not be enough exploration, expansion and new supply coming into the market to meet demand which will see a reactionary price spike projected 27-30, hopefully with the emergence of non-China supply chains thereafter, more down stream cacpacity and competition will mean china can't squeeze the price down and .


The major problem is AVZ is just too dam big for most to chew. LOM projections are what 20 years. To maximise the value of the measured resource of AVZ, on a 20 year LOM you would need a 40Mt mine. Thats insane!!! Thats the throughput of 8 PLS mines (once P1000 is online), for the POTENTIAL of 1 AVZ.

Keyword is potential. AVZ now is the equivalent of back when PLS was at ~30c preconstruction in 2016 or 2020 whenever that milestone was.

All fair points.

 

[muks]

Been thinking again.

Now that ICSID has been resumed, it means that the financial claim stated by AVZ has to now be the benchmark.
If AVZ go the full course with a >US$10B claim and are successful, then Kobold will have to reimburse AVZ that amount in order to take over the project. OR, can AVZ go double bubble and hamstring DRC with a financial claim that entails ICSID enforcing the amount payable, acquire the funds then flog off the rights for another amount.
I'm not sure..

Anyone in the market to buy AVZ outside of China will do it on the condition that the ML is returned back to AVZ and then onsold. This (almost) makes the jurisdiction risk a non-issue as they will have the backing of the US government. Anyone talking below $1.50 has rocks in their head IMO, if any smart businessperson had the option to buy AVZ with US backing or 2x PLS they would buy the money printing machine every day. That's not even mentioning that PLS isn't in the market to sell and the US wants critical minerals NOW.

The 6.2b USD claim at ICSID equals 9.5b AUD, roughly ~$2.7 AUD per share (not including damages, just the asset price) and you think anyone that is talking over $1.50 is retarded? That's an 80% premium!

All court cases are clear cut so far and the arbitrators won't look to the DRC actions so far with a smile on their face. It isn't like we don't have that much of a leg to stand on.

I don't understand why everyone thinks we still don't hold the cards? Kobolds screaming from the rooftops that they want us to be paid fair value (not an 80% premium) for a deposit that's going to make them rich for multiple decades.

Maybe I've missed something.

Where is this financial claim?

I know the $10 billion has been thrown around forever, but as far as I can see, there is no official reference to a $10 billion damages claim lodged in any publicly available ICSID document or AVZ ASX announcement.

Please correct me.

If somebody has any official document that specifies anything to the above effect please post it. That would be much appreciated. (Dave Evans? He's all over the ICSID case and his preferred course of action was the ICSID route. Maybe he can chime in? or anyone for that matter).

What I can see that AVZ are seeking via ICSID;

• A declaration that AVZ (via Dathcom) holds the legal title to Exploration Permit PR13359 at Manono.
• An order compelling the DRC to issue an exploitation (mining) permit over that area.
• Interim measures to protect these rights, and penalty orders due to non-compliance by the DRC.

The focus of current legal action and arbitration is on restoring mining rights and ownership, not seeking financial damages other than penalties for non compliance.

A "win" will in no way value the resource at 10 billion dollars based on the above.

At the end of the day a deal needs to be done for shareholders to walk away. Before or after arbitration (if it goes the distance). The sooner a deal is done the better in my opinion.

 

[wombat74]

Bottom Line . Will DRC do a deal with Kobold for Roche Dure ?

If the DRC say they hold the legal rights to Manono , what's stopping them from doing a deal with Kobold ?
If the DRC say AVZ do not hold any rights to Manono , what's stopping the DRC doing a deal with Kobold ?
If Kobold know AVZ can lock them out of a deal with the DRC for Roche Dure by taking the DRC to court , what's stopping Kobold from doing a deal with AVZ ?
If AVZ gets paid out by Kobold for a deal done between Kobold and the DRC , what does that have to do with the DRC?

Is this a deal between Kobold and AVZ ? Is it just a case of Kobold offering AVZ the right compensation $$$ for AVZ to drop ICSID/ICC/walk away and allow the DRC and Kobold to do a deal ? ( after peace /security agreement ).

 

[muks]

Bottom Line . Will DRC do a deal with Kobold for Roche Dure ?

If the DRC say they hold the legal rights to Manono , what's stopping them from doing a deal with Kobold ?
If the DRC say AVZ do not hold any rights to Manono , what's stopping the DRC doing a deal with Kobold ?
If Kobold know AVZ can lock them out of a deal with the DRC for Roche Dure by taking the DRC to court , what's stopping Kobold from doing a deal with AVZ ?
If AVZ gets paid out by Kobold for a deal done between Kobold and the DRC , what does that have to do with the DRC?

Is this a deal between Kobold and AVZ ? Is it just a case of Kobold offering AVZ the right compensation $$$ for AVZ to drop ICSID/ICC/walk away and allow the DRC and Kobold to do a deal ? ( after peace /security agreement ).

This may well be it. Give us the right amount, we drop everything and walk away. The rest is up to them.

 

[LOCKY82]

Imo nobody but china will touch roche dure while there are legal ownership disputes

 

[j.l]

Totally agree @hedrox

Great find by @cruiser51 and one of the most straight forward but comprehensive assessments of the AVZ situation that I have read anywhere

Agreed, good article.

It's interesting to note that the article makes a reference to the US intervention, but nothing whatsoever of Kobold and the non-binding agreement.

 

[Azzler]

Bottom Line . Will DRC do a deal with Kobold for Roche Dure ?

If the DRC say they hold the legal rights to Manono , what's stopping them from doing a deal with Kobold ?
If the DRC say AVZ do not hold any rights to Manono , what's stopping the DRC doing a deal with Kobold ?
If Kobold know AVZ can lock them out of a deal with the DRC for Roche Dure by taking the DRC to court , what's stopping Kobold from doing a deal with AVZ ?
If AVZ gets paid out by Kobold for a deal done between Kobold and the DRC , what does that have to do with the DRC?

Is this a deal between Kobold and AVZ ? Is it just a case of Kobold offering AVZ the right compensation $$$ for AVZ to drop ICSID/ICC/walk away and allow the DRC and Kobold to do a deal ? ( after peace /security agreement ).

Given the latest announcement, I believe this is the current situation.
AVZ have exposed all the corrupt pigs running the DRC and they're just so offended by that they've refused to talk with AVZ.

By the excitement displayed by Kobald, it would appear that the DRC have told them they can have Manono south already.
But with it tied up in the courts by AVZ, there's no way they would or could take on that risk, as well as the reputational damage. They would be complicit in DRC corruption if they pulled a Zijin.

So they have to pay off AVZ.
It looks like there is no relationship or communication between AVZ and DRC.

I think AVZ could reasonably say "nup" untill at least all time high value is offered.

 

[wombat74]

Imo nobody but china will touch roche dure while there are legal ownership disputes

The DRC say they own the rights to Manono . What's stopping them selling Roche Dure to Kobold ? What's stopping Kobold from appropriately compensating AVZ to drop disputes and walk away ? The ball is in Kobold's court . IMO .

 

[j.l]

Following this shitshow and getting a resolution, part of fair compensation (or just a token thank you from Kobold for selling them one of the world's greatest assets) all shareholders should receive a chunk of hard rock from the site in a little display box for their trophy shelves/memory displays. A reminder of the mental fortitude to remain steadfast these last years, and even further for those battling the naysayers when it was back in the sub-10c days.

I hope there's a new announcement in the coming week following Friday's signing with an actual update on the state of things. I'm getting itchy, need my next dose of hopium soon

One of these perhaps?