AVZ Discussion 2022

[Doc]

For the first time I saw someone in the wild reading TSE, who was the solo traveler at the Qantas first lounge this arvo?

 

[cruiser51]

You could speculate if AVZ had gone bust at the end of last year would Kobold now have Roche Dure ? AVZ handed Kobold a sh1t sandwich today . If the DRC are against AVZ then Kobold is out .

The DRC and AVZ had to show to the USA that they had good intent and were prepared to negotiate.

Also the DRC considered any delay in ICSID proceedings something they had been playing for all along, so of course they agreed and hoped AVZ would go for another extension and another and another.
It is obvious the DRC miscalculated on that point.

However with the inclusion of CKK on the 'expert team' of the DRC to advice FT, it was painfully obvious that AVZ had Buckley's chance for the DRC being willing to negotiate with AVZ.
CKK would sign his own and wife's death sentence if he would.

In my opinion the DRC did themself a disservice in showing they had no intention to negotiate with AVZ at all, after AVZ went ahead and agreed with the DRC to apply for a suspension of the proceedings to make negotiations possible in a gesture of goodwill.

Of course the ICSID will take the DRC's attitude in consideration and, imo, it is not helpful for the DRC in its case against AVZ.
Any further attempt from the DRC to delay again will highly likely return a fuck off.
Also there is no reason for ICSID to drag this out and continue with its proceedings ASAP and a speedy outcome.

The advantage for AVZ is that ICSID will give a verdict expressed in a monetary value, so Kobold knows also what the go is.

In my opinion it is not all bad, but was to be expected.

It is clear that Felix's choice of 'expert advisors' gave an early indication the way the DRC would go.
One only has to read CKK's Communique posted on 24/3 in response to the ICC ruling that Cominière had to pay AVZ €39 million in which he made it very plain, he did not recognise any AVZ claim over Manono in any shape or form, therefore 'What fine?'.

To believe that he would advice after that to negotiate with AVZ would be playing with your willy.

All IMO.

 

[Pokok]

For the first time I saw someone in the wild reading TSE, who was the solo traveler at the Qantas first lounge this arvo?

Was he heading to the DRC

 

[Seaworthy]

I don't know about this announcement....a bit of a nothing announcement. I believe there are to many moving parts in the whole story...
The silence of CATH or any Chinese players doesn't make sense at all to me. A big question is as well who will build the lithium refinery? A refinery in Manano is necessary for cheaper transportation to make it price compatible. Zijin and whoever will get hold of Roche Dur will have the same problem and a joint venture would make sense instead of building 2 expensive refineries. For sure Cath want to get in some way or other a slice of the cake. I got the feeling that CATH is somehow still on the table.There is probably much more going on, what we don't know and what Nigel can't talk about atm. Imagine how many tight lips talks about Manano the biggest Lithium deposit in the world were held or still ongoing.
I think Kobold are only flexing muscles atm, trying to get the best deal done, while other parties in the background are watching and preparing to counter offer. In the last announcement from 24th of Mai Nigel clearly stated...
View attachment 87542
All discussions with Kobold were always NON BINDING....This was Nigel's choice not Kobolds....wondering why?

Spot on ... the timing of the ICSID hearing ended up being a little too early for the minerals deal after it was pushed out, I think this whole thing will look a lot different in a week or two after the DRC have their security deal. DRC will need to get a whole lot more flexible after that. AVZ were either going to suspend ICSID again or proceed, I'm happy Nige chose to move forward, it will strengthen AVZ's position. I think the AVZ/Kobold transaction will be complete before a decision comes out of ICSID (and USA are the key) but those sitting in the ICSID room will have a pretty good idea of who is winning the battle. The comment from today's announcement '... DRC did not engage with AVZ during the period of temporary suspension and that suspension has now lapsed' will be used by AVZ to support the argument that DRC should wear AVZ's legal costs. And as you point out @hedrox , where is Cath sitting amongst all of this? We're at the pointy end folks, chin up.

 

[Pokok]

I'm back from my swim , in Bali and before you guys say it, its a cheap flight Java and the youngest want to learn surfing , but all I could think of while sitting in a bean bag and being asked to buy everything on earth was Babi Guling , spit roast those pigs

 

[Samus]

One thing I'm not understanding is the relationship between the details of this announcement and Felix' need to engage the US for protection and support against the rebels. He was evidently pleading to engage with the US for the purposes of signing the peace agreement which as we know has to have something in it for the US (i.e. the critical minerals aspect) - otherwise what is the point of the deal from the US perspective...

Once the deal is signed, I find it difficult to imagine that reneging or deviation from the US's strategy (which the DRC must have been agreed with to even make it to the point of signing) would be allowed to let slip by the US without consequence. There's still the chance that as mentioned above, the DRC are still engaging but with Kobold instead of AVZ.

On the other hand, the DRC government have proven themselves to be fools without logic or reason so maybe they plainly do not give a crap about US consequences.

Don't forget there are a lot of other mineral resources on offer in the DRC, the politics of this might still get in the way.
We can only hope that the US force DRC's hand to the annoyance of the CCP Cu*ts in regard with this case in particular, maybe somebody in the Trump administration makes this a sticking point.
There seems to be some indication that this might be the case moving forward but no guarantees and this latest announcement isn't too promising.
Funding is again our issue now, we won't have the funds to pursue this for the next 5-10 years. Likely not even one more year if CATH now pulls funding.

 

[Retrobyte]

I'm back from my swim , in Bali and before you guys say it, its a cheap flight Java and the youngest want to learn surfing , but all I could think of while sitting in a bean bag and being asked to buy everything on earth was Babi Guling , spit roast those pigs

Were there any ayam selling their wares ?

 

[Pokok]

We should start a new count up not down so we can count the days of disappointment

 

[Pokok]

Were there any ayam selling their wares ?

plenty of ayam lalat early morning , I got propositioned by a banchong at 6am all I wanted was coffee black

 

[Pokok]

Just trying to ease the tension of today

 

[BRICK]

Were there any ayam selling their wares ?

I call them the village chickens....

 

[Retrobyte]

Just trying to ease the tension of today

Should have taken the offer from the waria in that case!

 

[wombat74]

Deboss /Jens ? Crickets . Good time for a wink .

 

[Pokok]

I call them the village chickens....

ayam kampung , I ran one over years ago cost me $5 and the owner took it , it was my dinner

 

[LOCKY82]

You could speculate if AVZ had gone bust at the end of last year would Kobold now have Roche Dure ? AVZ handed Kobold a sh1t sandwich today . If the DRC are against AVZ then Kobold is out .

It's not news the drc is against avz, and kobold likely know a lot more than any of us about the whole ordeal, I doubt this has deterred kobold much at all. The tone should be a lot different if/when peace deal is signed.

 

[marksmann007]

Let’s also remember the primary reason for AVZ to suspend ISCID was to give the US gov time to allow for a climate conducive to discussions, a gesture on our behalf to allow the US to broker peace discussions between DRC & Rwanda.
Should be signed by Friday 27th.
Lets see how things go for us once that deal‘s done…

 

[Samus]

Seems like a flawed analysis to me but nonetheless here it is.

 

[OmarsCominYo]

In the midst of banging my head repeatedly on the table this afternoon, one thought cut through the distraction....is it in the interest of the US/Kobold for positive reports of reconciliation/productive engagement between AVZ and DRC officials at this point in proceedings?

Optics are obviously important on any number of levels to the US in what they are trying to achieve here, as they want a significant win to parade on the world stage....even more so with events of recent weeks. They want to be seen as heroes.

If they can negotiate for a workable peace treaty in the longstanding conflict between two major African nations, bring multiple billions of needed Western investment, along with the subsequent improvements in living conditions to the long suffering populations, while also enormously benefiting the all important US economy and workforce with access to the plethora of vital 21st Century minerals the DRC is blessed with, AND combat China's attempts at a stranglehold on the sector in the process, then it's no small victory to the good ol boys.

Whilst there are potentially trillions of dollars of needed minerals in the ground in the DRC, there is only one proven up, homogenous, ready to go, lithium deposit of such size that it can dictate market dynamics for potentially decades to come, and you can be damn sure they won't want that to slip away as part of these negotiations. Kobold is a proxy for the US Department of State in this imo and as such will play hardball to get what they want as part of the overall peace/security and mineral deals.

They want the DRC to stop fucking us around so they can get their hands on our lithium rights, but the timing has had to be right for all these other important bricks to fall into place (how long have they been pulling the strings quietly in the background to get to this point is probably a valid thought) and it's important for them to appear to be the saviours in all this....to relieve the DRC of these pesky, honest, hardworking Aussies who will call a spade a fucking spade, and have become a real pain in the collective DRC arse, while giving us a shortcut to a fair and appropriate compensation for being ousted from the potential lithium resource of the century, rather than having to drag it through the international courts. If we suddenly smoothed things over with big Felix and his band of merry men before the ink has dried on the other agreements, as opposed to them patting us on the back and telling us they got this, once the treaties go through, then it may take some of their shine away.

All this while publically wearing their star spangled capes for the world to see. A true win-win-win if handled appropriately.....which is great, but if it's worth having then it's worth them paying appropriately for and we all know the starting figures for that portion of negotiations involve the ICSID claim amount.

Maybe I banged my head a few too many times...

 

[Azzler]

In the midst of banging my head repeatedly on the table this afternoon, one thought cut through the distraction....is it in the interest of the US/Kobold for positive reports of reconciliation/productive engagement between AVZ and DRC officials at this point in proceedings?

Optics are obviously important on any number of levels to the US in what they are trying to achieve here, as they want a significant win to parade on the world stage....even more so with events of recent weeks. They want to be seen as heroes.

If they can negotiate for a workable peace treaty in the longstanding conflict between two major African nations, bring multiple billions of needed Western investment, along with the subsequent improvements in living conditions to the long suffering populations, while also enormously benefiting the all important US economy and workforce with access to the plethora of vital 21st Century minerals the DRC is blessed with, AND combat China's attempts at a stranglehold on the sector in the process, then it's no small victory to the good ol boys.

Whilst there are potentially trillions of dollars of needed minerals in the ground in the DRC, there is only one proven up, homogenous, ready to go, lithium deposit of such size that it can dictate market dynamics for potentially decades to come, and you can be damn sure they won't want that to slip away as part of these negotiations. Kobold is a proxy for the US Department of State in this imo and as such will play hardball to get what they want as part of the overall peace/security and mineral deals.

They want the DRC to stop fucking us around so they can get their hands on our lithium rights, but the timing has had to be right for all these other important bricks to fall into place (how long have they been pulling the strings quietly in the background to get to this point is probably a valid thought) and it's important for them to appear to be the saviours in all this....to relieve the DRC of these pesky, honest, hardworking Aussies who will call a spade a fucking spade, and have become a real pain in the collective DRC arse, while giving us a shortcut to a fair and appropriate compensation for being ousted from the potential lithium resource of the century, rather than having to drag it through the international courts. If we suddenly smoothed things over with big Felix and his band of merry men before the ink has dried on the other agreements, as opposed to them patting us on the back and telling us they got this, once the treaties go through, then it may take some of their shine away.

All this while publically wearing their star spangled capes for the world to see. A true win-win-win if handled appropriately.....which is great, but if it's worth having then it's worth them paying appropriately for and we all know the starting figures for that portion of negotiations involve the ICSID claim amount.

Maybe I banged my head a few too many times...

Some thoughtful posts mate.

Just wondering if you post on HC or X under another name if you wish to share?

 

[Exo324]

If true I wonder how this affects the Rwanda / DRC treaty?

It mentions kagame is gravely ill