AVZ Discussion 2022

[Spikerama]

I like the KISS principle.

AVZ's JORC compliant lithium reserves at Manono are,

• Total = 842Mt @ 1.61%
• Roche Dure (RD) = 669 Mt @ 1.61%
• Carriere de l'Este (CDL) = 173 Mt @ 1.58%

KoBold acknowledges the need for fair compensation for AVZ's Roche Dure (RD) and Carriere De l'este (CDL) investments at Manono. Kobold says RD is worth $US3.0 billion, and presumably the DRC govt is on the hook for compensating AVZ for CDL.

CDL represents 20% of Manono's JORC reserves (ignoring the differences in grade and impurities), which adds another $US600 million to the mix.

Therefore the starting point for negotiating AVZ's Manono stake is KoBold's low-ball $US3.0 billion plus the DRC's $US600 million = $US3.6 billion. This is a long way from AVZ's ICSID claim for $US6.2 billion for the corrupt destruction of its Manono investments by the DRC government and its agencies.

The mid-point of the two figures is $US4.9 billion.

Over to you KoBold and DRC...

Cheers
F

PS. I am unaware if AVZ's other tenements and projects alongside Manono are also being negotiated, or what, if any value AVZ has placed on them.

Personally I like the old LITTFP principle.

Leave It To The Fucking Professionals!

Anything else is just conjecture and noise.

"Stop telling them the price Son"

 

[KentCStrait]

I like the KISS principle.

AVZ's JORC compliant lithium reserves at Manono are,

• Total = 842Mt @ 1.61%
• Roche Dure (RD) = 669 Mt @ 1.61%
• Carriere de l'Este (CDL) = 173 Mt @ 1.58%

KoBold acknowledges the need for fair compensation for AVZ's Roche Dure (RD) and Carriere De l'este (CDL) investments at Manono. Kobold says RD is worth $US3.0 billion, and presumably the DRC govt is on the hook for compensating AVZ for CDL.

CDL represents 20% of Manono's JORC reserves (ignoring the differences in grade and impurities), which adds another $US600 million to the mix.

Therefore the starting point for negotiating AVZ's Manono stake is KoBold's low-ball $US3.0 billion plus the DRC's $US600 million = $US3.6 billion. This is a long way from AVZ's ICSID claim for $US6.2 billion for the corrupt destruction of its Manono investments by the DRC government and its agencies.

The mid-point of the two figures is $US4.9 billion.

Over to you KoBold and DRC...

Cheers
F

PS. I am unaware if AVZ's other tenements and projects alongside Manono are also being negotiated, or what, if any value AVZ has placed on them.

Good post, but let’s step back and look at the bigger picture.

The 669Mt at Roche Dure is just the current JORC figure. It doesn’t reflect the full scale of the Manono asset. Roche Dure remains open along strike and at depth, and AVZ’s original exploration target was closer to 1.2Bt — just for RD and its immediate surrounds.

Now factor in the Kitotolo Sector to the southwest — historically mined for tin but largely unexplored for lithium. Early assessments point to multiple large pegmatites, potentially adding another 300–500Mt. Then there are the NE and SW extensions (PRs 4029 & 4030), which are highly prospective and likely host to additional strike extensions of the known mineralisation.

Altogether, a 2Bt total resource base is a conservative estimate for what KoBold — or any buyer — would be acquiring.

So while AVZ’s $6.2B ICSID claim reflects the damage caused by the unlawful expropriation, it also stands as a realistic floor for valuing one of the largest, highest-grade hard rock lithium deposits on the planet. And with US-backed security guarantees in place, the sovereign risk discount has effectively been wiped off the table.

If KoBold wants to mine this at 10MTPA and list on the NYSE, it needs to pay a fair price — not toss in crumbs and expect no resistance. This asset demands it. And anything less than a $6B+ resolution invites prolonged litigation and reputational fallout.

At $6B, we walk away satisfied — and KoBold still walks away with a money-printing asset that’ll make more profit than God.

 

[Flight996]

Personally I like the old LITTFP principle.

Leave It To The Fucking Professionals!

Anything else is just conjecture and noise.

"Stop telling them the price Son"

Mate, I'm not telling anyone anything they don't already know, and even if I did they would not be guided by my rudimentary calculations that may end up being way off the mark anyway. They have bigger calculators with bigger mantissas than both of us.

Cheers
F

 

[timb89]

I like the KISS principle.

AVZ's JORC compliant lithium reserves at Manono are,

• Total = 842Mt @ 1.61%
• Roche Dure (RD) = 669 Mt @ 1.61%
• Carriere de l'Este (CDL) = 173 Mt @ 1.58%

KoBold acknowledges the need for fair compensation for AVZ's Roche Dure (RD) and Carriere De l'este (CDL) investments at Manono. Kobold says RD is worth $US3.0 billion, and presumably the DRC govt is on the hook for compensating AVZ for CDL.

CDL represents 20% of Manono's JORC reserves (ignoring the differences in grade and impurities), which adds another $US600 million to the mix.

Therefore the starting point for negotiating AVZ's Manono stake is KoBold's low-ball $US3.0 billion plus the DRC's $US600 million = $US3.6 billion. This is a long way from AVZ's ICSID claim for $US6.2 billion for the corrupt destruction of its Manono investments by the DRC government and its agencies.

The mid-point of the two figures is $US4.9 billion.

Over to you KoBold and DRC...

Cheers
F

PS. I am unaware if AVZ's other tenements and projects alongside Manono are also being negotiated, or what, if any value AVZ has placed on them.

Thankyou for writing $US (or $AUD). This should be the standard on all price discussions.

 

[Penskefile]

Gates is going to give away 140billion, where do we sign?

somewhere familiar I suppose?

 

[LOCKY82]

When did Kobold say RD was worth 3B?

 

[Spikerama]

Mate, I'm not telling anyone anything they don't already know, and even if I did they would not be guided by my rudimentary calculations that may end up being way off the mark anyway. They have bigger calculators with bigger mantissas than both of us.

Cheers
F

Lol Mantissas. What the hell are those?

 

[Flight996]

Lol Mantissas. What the hell are those?

Lol...a mantissa is pretty much to number of zeros that can fit on a calculator screen.

KoBold will definitely need a big mantissa.

Cheers

 

[Thaz]

$50.



One thing I know for certain for the price.

Kobold will want to negotiate downward and Nigel will want to negotiate the price upward.

Call me a prophet.

 

[Spikerama]

Lol...a mantissa is pretty much to number of zeros that can fit on a calculator screen.

KoBold will definitely need a big mantissa.

Cheers

All I remember from calculators is

BOOBIES and
ShELLOIL

 

[Flight996]

All I remember from calculators is

BOOBS and
ShELLOIL

So funny

 

[Pokok]

$50.



One thing I know for certain for the price.

Kobold will want to negotiate downward and Nigel will want to negotiate the price upward.

Call me a prophet.

US

 

[TheCount]

I'm changing up the topic away from valuations. Only Nigel and BOD know ad whilst the speculation is great, the influx of others is wasting time reading all the crap. Regular crew - keep going!

This weekend I'll be brewing my first grain-to-glass Stout. Free sample to anyone that turns up to collect their hard lemon (once cleared funds received of course).

 

[Winenut]

There was a bit of off-topic banter just then I think

Wow!!!

Does that mean we might even get Friday funnies back tomorrow??

Give us a thumbs up if you feel like it and see if my post is still here after 5 mins

Just a bit of fun

Cheers!

 

[Winenut]

I'm changing up the topic away from valuations. Only Nigel and BOD know ad whilst the speculation is great, the influx of others is wasting time reading all the crap. Regular crew - keep going!

This weekend I'll be brewing my first grain-to-glass Stout. Free sample to anyone that turns up to collect their hard lemon (once cleared funds received of course).

View attachment 85715

Regular crew moderated out of existence Count!

But for one I love your work!

Your time starts.........now

 

[Xerof]

Regular crew moderated out of existence Count!

But for one I love your work!

Your time starts.........now

 

[Samus]

Regular crew moderated out of existence Count!

But for one I love your work!

Your time starts.........now

Must be dinner time Wino.

My biggest hope as regarding our outcome regardless of price is that we get something out of zijin one way or another for their corrupt and criminal behaviour and theft of our assets. Them, the MMAGOTS, so many bad actors and detractors throughout this saga who deserve to get what's coming.

 

[Winenut]

Must be dinner time Wino.

My biggest hope as regarding our outcome regardless of price is that we get something out of zijin one way or another for their corrupt and criminal behaviour and theft of our assets. Them, the MMAGOTS, so many bad actors and detractors throughout this saga who deserve to get what's coming.

Couldn't agree more

 

[Winenut]

Don't forget!......

 

[Hudnut]

I might short their pineapple industry, looks like it might take a big hit in the coming months

Nah. Demand will be the same. Just different customers.