AVZ Discussion 2022

[Funtimes1]

Fanciful? What’s fanciful is pretending a Tier-1 lithium asset with a granted mining licence, US backing, and global strategic relevance is worth anything less than $6–8B. That’s not hopium — that’s what the numbers say when you compare it to other deals, and Roche Dure leaves those in the dust in both scale and grade.

If an offer comes in well below that, then yes — shareholders have every right to pursue legal action. And it won’t be against a “bankrupt company” — it’ll be against directors, advisors, and anyone else who facilitated a sale that doesn’t reflect market value. Precedent exists for that.

No one’s saying we hold out for the moon — but lowballing this now under the guise of “realism” isn’t smart, it’s submission. Competitive pressure is exactly what gets us a real price. Settling for crumbs before that pressure plays out is how value gets stolen.

Just passing on .........someone posted in The Australian article on AVZ over the weekend , that BOD are well aware that SH expectations are above ATH and mentioned circa of 1.50 and being fully franked was his mail. Anything less and the BOD are aware it may trigger legal action against them.

 

[Bonsoir]

Fuck, any of the old crew still here, might change my name to “EMERGED”

 

[hedrox]

Just passing on .........someone posted in The Australian article on AVZ over the weekend , that BOD are well aware that SH expectations are above ATH and mentioned circa of 1.50 and being fully franked was his mail. Anything less and the BOD are aware it may trigger legal action against them.

Does anybody got this article from this weekend in The Australian? Who wrote it?

 

[Panther22]

There was talk some time back of paying CGT (30%) in the DRC from any sale proceeds.
Is that still the case or wait and see?

 

[Funtimes1]

Does anybody got this article from this weekend in The Australian? Who wrote it?

The article by Brad Thompson , however its a shadow copy of other articles and nothing new. I was passing on comments to this article by a poster only. Bonsoir, grow the fuck up!

 

[Flight996]

Does anybody got this article from this weekend in The Australian? Who wrote it?

Here tis:

AVZ moves step closer to great escape from the DRC​

A ceasefire in a legal fight has set the scene for AVZ Minerals and a US company backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos to finalise the sale of a major DRC lithium project.

The disputed AVZ Minerals lithium project in the DRC

Perth-based AVZ Minerals and the Democratic Republic of Congo have suspended their bitter legal battle over a giant lithium project as the US closes in on a critical minerals pact with the troubled African nation.

The US pushed AVZ and the DRC to find common ground as part of its desire for the lithium prize to end up in the hands of an American company – and not in the clutches of Chinese interests.

The suspension of legal hostilities takes AVZ a big step closer to having its permits over the southern portion of the Manono Project returned so it can be on-sold to California-based KoBold, a company whose backers include Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos.

AVZ and the DRC’s state-owned mining company hit pause on legal action in the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce until June 23 in a sign of goodwill, and will negotiate on the return of the Manono permit.

The prospect of a peace deal sometime in the next four weeks also suggests a timeline for a deal between AVZ and KoBold, who are in negotiations about the sale price.

The market valued AVZ as high as $4.6bn in 2022 amid a lithium boom and excitement around Manono that drew in more than 21,000 investors.

The company’s stocks tumbled and it was eventually de-listed and hit with disputed corruption allegations after losing control of the massive hard rock deposit that has been likened to the world-leading Greenbushes lithium mine in Western Australia.

Investors now appear well on track to receive some return based on the thaw in relations between AVZ and DRC officials, and lobbying that garnered US support for Nigel Ferguson-led AVZ.

The Australian first reported in March that the Trump administration was poised to insist control of the southern part of Manono be in a move that risked provoking a backlash from China.

The Trump administration and the DRC are now close to signing a critical minerals pact after DRC President Felix Tshisekedi sought US protection from Rwanda-backed M23 rebels that had overrun parts of his country.

The US State Department published a declaration of principles between DRC and Rwanda that provides a framework for peace, and AVZ and KoBold confirmed they were working a deal on Manono since The Australian’s exclusive report.

The United Nations estimates more than 71,000 people fleeing violence in the east of the DRC have crossed the border into Burundi since January.

The US wants AVZ and the DRC to drop any legal action before a sale, with the ceasefire in their arbitration case pointing to a breakthrough on that front. It appears Chinese mining heavyweight Zijin will be left alone to develop the northern half of Manono.

However, AVZ will have to talk with Chinese battery-maker CATL, which listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last week, about the sale to KoBold. A CATL subsidiary owns part of AVZ and, through a deal revised in January, helped fund the legal fight with the DRC.

It was reported on March 30 that AVZ could on-sell the Manono project to KoBold for up to $US1.5bn.

However, the sale price remains unclear and complicated by geopolitics, further weakness in global lithium markets and the possibility the DRC could ignore any adverse ruling if the international arbitration case were to continue.

 

[hedrox]

Great write up by Anatol on the LTR thread on the Crapper....it shows clearly how desperate the world is for Lithium..

 

[TanCA]

There seem to be two distinct camps of holders in the current discussion:

1) Long-term holders – Often early entrants who now hold millions of shares. Many in this group are seeking a quick resolution, driven largely by lifestyle considerations.

2) High-risk newer investors – typically holding anywhere from tens of thousands to several hundred thousand shares. They’re more focused on achieving what they believe is fair value for their investment, even if it requires more patience.

The first group is increasingly pushing to lower expectations, suggesting we should accept whatever offer is on the table because “this is our only exit.” The second group sees this as premature, arguing that setting a low bar now is like entering a bidding war against ourselves before the race has even started.

Reading between the lines on our most recent announcement, removal of Kobolds interview etc. despite what the US media might say, AVZ is making it clear that this deal might be done in Kobold's mind, but nothing is set in stone yet, leaving us open to other bidders.

At the end of the day, neither group is likely to influence the final outcome. So, perhaps the best course of action is to relax and let the process be negotiated by the guy with a private island and jet plane on the line.

This is a great post and I think it does accurately explain why some large holders have been "talking down" the price as they want to exit.

Going the full way through ICSID will be a long term disaster and is highly unlikely to obtain a satisfactory return for anyone in terms of timing or proceeds. What potentially could obtain a better return, is stalling for another couple of years until the lithium price improves. If the lithium price is 2 or 5 times what it is now then it makes it much easier to support and negotiate a higher valuation. The issue is that this is RISKY and no one knows when the price will increase and by how much. AVZ have a potential buyer lined up now which the DRC Government appear to support. The political environment can always change though. If the deal falls through, when will another buyer step up? Will the DRC Government let South Manono continue to sit there waiting for another buyer to step up in several years? The issue is we don't know, as the DRC Government are not trustworthy or reliable. If AVZ end up taking the Kobold deal, will holders end up kicking themselves in years to come? I would say highly likely that the answer is yes, however not taking the deal is also a BIG risk.

 

[Skar]

This is a great post and I think it does accurately explain why some large holders have been "talking down" the price as they want to exit.

Going the full way through ICSID will be a long term disaster and is highly unlikely to obtain a satisfactory return for anyone in terms of timing or proceeds. What potentially could obtain a better return, is stalling for another couple of years until the lithium price improves. If the lithium price is 2 or 5 times what it is now then it makes it much easier to support and negotiate a higher valuation. The issue is that this is RISKY and no one knows when the price will increase and by how much. AVZ have a potential buyer lined up now which the DRC Government appear to support. The political environment can always change though. If the deal falls through, when will another buyer step up? Will the DRC Government let South Manono continue to sit there waiting for another buyer to step up in several years? The issue is we don't know, as the DRC Government are not trustworthy or reliable. If AVZ end up taking the Kobold deal, will holders end up kicking themselves in years to come? I would say highly likely that the answer is yes, however not taking the deal is also a BIG risk.

If the DRC gov agree to a way forward with Kobold... it sets the precedent on how any future deals need to be done too, in the event Kobold do not present fair value to AVZ shareholders. In such event it also strengthens our position in ICSID hearings.

 

[TanCA]

If the DRC gov agree to a way forward with Kobold... it sets the precedent on how any future deals need to be done too, in the event Kobold do not present fair value to AVZ shareholders. In such event it also strengthens our position in ICSID hearings.

When dealing with a reliable and trustworthy partner, a precedent could be applied and relied upon. Is the DRC Government that reliable partner who follows their own laws and precedents? Not so much.

The AVZ ICSID position is already strong. I am not suggesting AVZ would not win.

 

[j.l]

Does anybody got this article from this weekend in The Australian? Who wrote it?

@hedrox, I think it was this comment on the article that @Funtimes1 was referring to, not the actual article itself. I think. As others have said, the article is just a rehash of previous stuff.

 

[Goat]

FFS! All this BS about price talk sub dollar is giving me the irks!

We know what it's worth, what they pay is anyones guess, but lets aim high for now. 800MT of 1.6% and digging can start with ya kids sandpit shovel.

AVZ is in the head of the chair. If they choose to tell Kobold to EAD due to a lowball offer, the ICSID progresses and the DRCs dirty laundry gets aired for the ENTIRE WORLD to see. CATH will happily stump up all the dollars to build a mine.
USA wants the minerals so they are not going to let it go, I believe a deal is already stitched up with price, now it's just how the hell the USA and Kobold can get the DRC to deliver on promises.

 

[wombat74]

This is a great post and I think it does accurately explain why some large holders have been "talking down" the price as they want to exit.

Going the full way through ICSID will be a long term disaster and is highly unlikely to obtain a satisfactory return for anyone in terms of timing or proceeds. What potentially could obtain a better return, is stalling for another couple of years until the lithium price improves. If the lithium price is 2 or 5 times what it is now then it makes it much easier to support and negotiate a higher valuation. The issue is that this is RISKY and no one knows when the price will increase and by how much. AVZ have a potential buyer lined up now which the DRC Government appear to support. The political environment can always change though. If the deal falls through, when will another buyer step up? Will the DRC Government let South Manono continue to sit there waiting for another buyer to step up in several years? The issue is we don't know, as the DRC Government are not trustworthy or reliable. If AVZ end up taking the Kobold deal, will holders end up kicking themselves in years to come? I would say highly likely that the answer is yes, however not taking the deal is also a BIG risk.

Let's add to that any changes to the supply landscape that may eventuate while we are stuck for years in the courts . Like advancements in technology that require less Lithium / a few more major deposit discoveries . Better to get this sorted now and get the flock out this scum hole .
Bird in the hand.........yada yada yada .

 

[wombat74]

Fuck Jens, he shouldn't be promoting low ball offers. He should just STFU like we have been asked to do. He is just a SH too.

Set the bar low then surprise to the upside .Will make the medicine taste like champagne .

 

[wombat74]

@wombat74

Mate, what’s the ground telling your ear now, after yesterdays announcement? Seems to me there is optionality still available to anyone who’s interested and there is no deal yet

I'd be surprised if it wasn't Kobold .

 

[Pokok]

FFS! All this BS about price talk sub dollar is giving me the irks!

We know what it's worth, what they pay is anyones guess, but lets aim high for now. 800MT of 1.6% and digging can start with ya kids sandpit shovel.

AVZ is in the head of the chair. If they choose to tell Kobold to EAD due to a lowball offer, the ICSID progresses and the DRCs dirty laundry gets aired for the ENTIRE WORLD to see. CATH will happily stump up all the dollars to build a mine.
USA wants the minerals so they are not going to let it go, I believe a deal is already stitched up with price, now it's just how the hell the USA and Kobold can get the DRC to deliver on promises.

the only thing on my mind now is $13.79

 

[LOCKY82]

the only thing on my mind now is $13.79

$USD ??

 

[Miljew91]

Great write up by Anatol on the LTR thread on the Crapper....it shows clearly how desperate the world is for Lithium..

View attachment 85460

Anatol is a known pumper leading the ltr crew to not sell during their near 6bn take over which we all know fell through.

Zijin and kobold coming online with expansions plans like pls waiting in the back ground will hands down fill the supply gap. Last predictions were low pricing until 2032... Soooo much pumping, just not in the right situations!

 

[Dazmac66]

Haven't posted a lot lately but here is a thought- if you are thinking of scribing a few paragraphs about why your investment is only worth a few cents then how about you just hold off for a few weeks. Ya dumb cunts!!

 

[timb89]

Haven't posted a lot lately but here is a thought- if you are thinking of scribing a few paragraphs about why your investment is only worth a few cents then how about you just hold off for a few weeks. Ya dumb cunts!!

Well fucking said.